American Politics Commons^™

An Evaluation Of The 2016 Election Polls In The United States, Courtney Kennedy, Mark Blumenthal, Scott Clement, Joshua D. Clinton, Claire Durand, Charles Franklin, Kyley Mcgeeney, Lee Miringoff, Kristen M. Olson, Douglas Rivers, Lydia Saad, G. Evans Witt, Christopher Wlezien

Department of Sociology: Faculty Publications

The 2016 presidential election was a jarring event for polling in the United States. Preelection polls fueled high-profile predictions that Hillary Clinton’s likelihood of winning the presidency was about 90 percent, with estimates ranging from 71 to over 99 percent. When Donald Trump was declared the winner of the presidency, there was a widespread perception that the polls failed. But did the polls fail? And if so, why? Those are among the central questions addressed by an American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) ad hoc committee. This paper presents the committee’s analysis of the performance of preelection polls in …

A Discourse Of True And False: An Analysis Of The Publications Of The Afl-Cio Between 1955-1965 As Archived In The Tamiment Library, John J. Gorham Jr.

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

In 1955 the American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations healed their twenty-year schism. Provisions of the NIRA and the Wagner Act had given promising opportunities for union organization in the early 1930’s. Unions in coal and steel saw possibilities in organizing vertically entire industries, rather than according to traditional crafts. In 1935 some unions left the AFL to form more aggressive organizations under the banner of the newly formed CIO. The public perception of aggressive strikes led to anti-labor laws, most noticeably the Taft-Hartley Act of 1947. The increasingly hostile political climate, as states enacted the “right …

The State Of Hate In America: A Study Of Hate Group Permeation In The United States By State, Michelle Rogers

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This paper will analyze some of the statistics regarding hate groups. The Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) has studied hate groups in the United States in depth for decades, developing tools and providing some useful statistics. They have developed a hate map that describes the quantity of hate groups in America individually by state and helps specifically identify trends in year over year comparisons. However, the hate map does not offer per capita breakdowns for a state or reasons for hate group permeation unique to the demographics and culture of each state. Factors and elements in conjunction with the hate …

The Politics Of United States Army Doctrine, David C. Rasmussen

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

The US Army made four significant shifts in the content of its capstone operations doctrine, Field Manual (FM) 100-5 / FM 3-0, along a spectrum of war since the end of WWII: 1) in 1954 it made a shift from a doctrine focused almost exclusively on mid-intensity conventional warfare to a doctrine that added significant emphasis to high-intensity nuclear warfare; 2) in 1962 it made an even greater shift in the opposite direction toward low-intensity unconventional warfare doctrine; 3) in 1976 it shifted back to an almost exclusive focus on mid-intensity conventional warfare content; 4) and this is where Army …

Civil Liberties And The Dual Legacy Of The Founding, John W. Compton

Political Science Faculty Books and Book Chapters

"This chapter will argue that the framers’ dual legacy in the area of civil liberties has cast a long historical shadow. Since the early republic, Americans have invoked constitutional civil liberties provisions to challenge customary forms of authority. Yet establishing the abstract legitimacy of one's claim – that it comports with a particular conception of religious liberty or the freedom of speech, for example – has typically been insufficient to prevail in the courts."

Predicting The Next Us President By Simulating The Electoral College, Boyan Kostadinov

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

We develop a simulation model for predicting the outcome of the US Presidential election based on simulating the distribution of the Electoral College. The simulation model has two parts: (a) estimating the probabilities for a given candidate to win each state and DC, based on state polls, and (b) estimating the probability that a given candidate will win at least 270 electoral votes, and thus win the White House. All simulations are coded using the high-level, open-source programming language R. One of the goals of this paper is to promote computational thinking in any STEM field by illustrating how probabilistic …

Predicting The Next Us President By Simulating The Electoral College, Boyan Kostadinov

Publications and Research

We develop a simulation model for predicting the outcome of the US Presidential election based on simulating the distribution of the Electoral College. The simulation model has two parts: (a) estimating the probabilities for a given candidate to win each state and DC, based on state polls, and (b) estimating the probability that a given candidate will win at least 270 electoral votes, and thus win the White House. All simulations are coded using the high-level, open-source programming language R. One of the goals of this paper is to promote computational thinking in any STEM field by illustrating how probabilistic …

It’S Like Déjà Vu All Over Again: Seismic Changes In The American Experiment, David King

Bridge/Work

“I’ve never seen anything like this.” “Is this the end of the country?”

In 2016, it seemed that both of those statements, or something similar, was on the tongues of nearly every American. No matter who you supported, there seemed to be something entirely new about the election cycle that the nation found itself in. There is no doubt that for this generation, the 2016 election is a watershed moment for the United States. For the U.S., however, watershed moments in democracy are not the exception but the rule. To fully understand how our democracy transitions, one must return to …

Racism And Impeachment Power, John M. Greabe

Law Faculty Scholarship

[Excerpt] “Does racism constitute a legitimate basis for removing a president? More generally, what is the scope of Congress's removal power?

”In all but the most extraordinary circumstances, the remedy for incompetent political leadership -indeed, even abhorrent political leadership lies in the next election. But the Constitution does provide Congress with tools to remove certain federal officeholders between elections.”

2018 Martin Luther King, Jr. Convocation, Otterbein University

MLK Convocations

Otterbein University honors the legacy of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. each year at an annual Martin Luther King Jr. Convocation which features a keynote speaker. This year's speaker was Samuel Gresham, Jr. and also included several speeches & performances by Otterbein Students.

My Grandfather Was An Illegal Immigrant: Guest Opinion, Daniel Pollack-Pelzner

Faculty Publications

In this opinion piece originally published in the Oregonian, Daniel Pollack-Pelzner reflects on his grandfather's immigration status in light of the Trump administration's decision to end temporary protection for 200,000 Salvadoran immigrants who came to the United States without documentation.

The Sunday After The Tuesday: The 2016 Presidential Election In The Pulpit, Matthew Boedy

Sermon Studies

The 2016 presidential election divided Christians along racial, economic, and theological lines. The central question of my study was how did ministers frame the election, if at all? Through analysis of transcripts of 47 sermons from across the country (14 states plus Washington D.C.), from multiple denominations and various sized congregations given on November 13 or thereabouts, I claim that the paradox of the dual citizenship of Christians was the predominant theme in these sermons. Second, only one minister directly endorsed a candidate and only a handful indirectly endorsed. Many preached a form of unity.

Is Trump The De-Regulator-In-Chief?, Allen C. Guelzo

Civil War Era Studies Faculty Publications

Abe Lincoln was a regulation cutter. Who would’ve known that?”

That line in a speech on December 8 by President Trump sent a number of pundits flocking to their history textbooks for fact-checking, especially after he followed it with the claim that, based on the numbers, he had actually exceeded Lincoln’s first-year total. “That’s pretty good for 10 months.”

What the pundits found was largely what they looked for. Blue State Daily’s Matthew Slivan smirked that “Trump likes to conjure comparisons to Abraham Lincoln,” but “the truth is what you’d expect: Trump is a blowhard.” Another reporter rang up …

Maga, Memes, And Magnificent Hair: How Have Alt-Right, White Supremacy, And White Nationalism Become Rooted In American History?, Gabriel A. Tucker

Op-Ed Pieces

The purpose of this inquiry is to ascertain the level of prevalence of white nationalist rhetoric and sociocultural artifacts in contemporary political discourse as well as the level of normalcy is has achieved. Additionally, I will generate a timeline that will chronicle the growth and progression of this movement to our current political era, highlighting major schisms, shifts, and events with alterations in fashion and physical presentation. I believe that my research will show not only a long-standing tradition of white nationalism within the United States but also that such rhetoric has slowly been creeping into mainstream political rhetoric and …

Government And The Intelligence Community: A Case Study On Russia And The United States Government's Effect On Intelligence Systems, Jessica M. Lago

Honors Undergraduate Theses

The United States and Russia are two major superpowers with governments that are run in different manners. Central to a government's and country's defense is their intelligence systems. The intelligence systems of these two countries are run as part of the government and are integral to its functioning. The purpose of this thesis is to discuss how both the governments and intelligence systems are structured and do they coincide with their respective systems. Using a case study on the United States and Russia, their intelligence systems and governments a comparison was drawn. While looking at the history of both governments …

Institute For Public Policy National Poll - January 2018, Institute For Public Policy

Public Policy Poll Results

The Sacred Heart University Institute for Public Policy leveraged quantitative research through a multi-mode methodology to address the following areas of investigation:

• Thoughts on the quality of life in Connecticut
• Satisfaction with the resolution of the State's budget crisis
• Opinions of how the State might continue to improve this budget crisis
• Thoughts on the State of Connecticut's economy and areas for improvement
• Support of the nonprofit sector and charitable organizations
• Demographic profiles of respondents

Differences In Vote Margin Of Candidates In The Florida Legislature, Meghan L. Stevens

Honors Undergraduate Theses

What explains differences in the margin of victory in Florida legislative races? Data is collected for all 160 legislative races from 2016 (120 house contests and 40 senate elections) and two sets of analyses are conducted: all races and just competitive races. When looking at all races, five variables are statistically significant in the multivariate model. District party registration difference has a positive effect on margin of victory and the greatest relative impact. Races involving two major party candidates have a much smaller margin of victory, a contest with a major party versus a minor party (or No Party Affiliation …

The Rise Of Trump And The Death Of Civility, Keith Bybee

Institute for the Study of the Judiciary, Politics, and the Media at Syracuse University

According to supporters and opponents alike, Donald Trump has been an unconventional candidate and president. In this article, I evaluate the relationship between Trump’s unconventional behavior and the requirements of civility. I provide a definition of civility, and I explain why it makes sense to relate Trump’s actions to civil norms. I then discuss how civility is enacted, I examine criticisms of civility’s triviality, and I explore the ways in which civility may repress dissent and maintain hierarchy. Although I consider the degree to which Trump’s actions are strategic, I ultimately argue that Trump’s incivilities should be understood as an …

Polarization In American Presidential Politics; Looking For The Effects Of Citizens United And Increased Campaign Spending, Subrina Oswalt

Merge

No abstract provided.

The Impact Of Presidential Field Offices In Ohio, 2008-2012, Colin D. Swearingen

2018 Faculty Bibliography

Does a community’s proximity to a presidential field office impact presidential election results? Applying community-level data from the American Community Survey, we examine the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections in the battleground state of Ohio. Using spatial regression, we find that the number of Obama field offices within 10 miles significantly increased his share of the vote in 2012. While proximity to a McCain Victory Center statistically decreased a community’s Obama vote share, this result was not substantive. In 2012, a community’s proximity to a Romney field office did not influence the results. Proximity to an Obama field office also …

The Ins And Outs Of Advocacy, Stacy Etheredge

Articles

No abstract provided.

Bionic Wings, Jacob Bruggeman

Compass: An Undergraduate Journal of American Political Ideas

In an infinite expanse such as the one we inhabit, we are mere mites in the soil, “creatures weak and fragile, small and helpless, finite and mortal” (Tucker, First Things, online). Our eyes always fixed upon the future, blooming ad infinitum, we will “run faster,” “stretch” ourselves farther, yet never fail to fall back to the ground. Our hands in the dirt, our fingers moving upon blades of grass, we still hunger for a future of our own design. We are born without wings and bogged down by both our human history and our only true human birthright: to fail, …

The Proof Is In The Pudding: The Myth Of Equality, Emma Lentchner

Compass: An Undergraduate Journal of American Political Ideas

Equality is treated as a universal and invariable concept, yet in practice authors manipulate it constantly to articulate their own interpretations, inadvertently transforming it into a political conception.

Author information: Emma Lentchner recently graduated from Smith College (‘18), and majored in Political Theory and Philosophy. She is particularly interested in the underlying patterns that subliminally govern our known world and is continuously looking to explore and deconstruct these mental and institutional constructs.

Why The U.S Should Not Deport Immigrants, Pedro Serrano

Nebraska College Preparatory Academy: Senior Capstone Projects

Illegal immigrants are people who come the the U.S illegally or come in legal through visa and stay over their stay period. There are many reasons why one would cross the boarder such as wanting a better life for themselves and families but some people, such as the President, do not see that. An estimated 381.5 billion between 623.2 billion dollars would be lost within the country if they were all deported. Illegal immigrants make up 65% of the agricultural production. It will cost millions and millions of dollars to deport every single illegal immigrant and also take about 20 …

The Effect Of Unemployment On Democratic Warfare, Andres Rakower

Honors Undergraduate Theses

This study was done to see the effects of a war on the economy and the internal politics of the United States. In selecting the engagement, we would study we agreed the Iraq War would be aided by a large amount of sampling of public opinion that was more nuanced than in previous wars. The Iraq War was a very complicated war, as it was controversial from the beginning and became a political issue while continuing to be a war fought by Americans abroad. Based on the literature, there were many starting effects and assumptions that were accounted for such …

Explaining The Difference In Support For President Trump And Senator Rubio In The 2016 Election In Florida, Florencia Miguez Devesa

Honors Undergraduate Theses

What explains the difference between the county level vote received by President Donald Trump and U.S. Senator Marco Rubio in the 2016 Florida general election? Over the last couple of decades, Florida has earned a reputation for being a highly competitive state that impacts control of the White House and congress. As Florida’s electorate becomes increasingly diverse, will the Democratic Party begin to win more often as their usual base grows, or will the Republican Party figure out a way to remain competitive? The 2016 general election presents an opportunity to analyze the structure of support for two Republican candidates …

The Student Debt Crisis And Political Polarization In The Millennial Generation, Dylan Wallace

Honors Undergraduate Theses

According to the Pew Research Center, the modern wave of political polarization began in 1994, and is the strongest today than it has ever been during the 23-year period. (2007) Polarization in the US party system is evidenced by several factors including: growing consistent partisan views, partisan antipathy, ideological bubbles, growing difference in preferences, a shrinking political center, and the lack of political compromise. (Pew Research Center 2014) The question I attempt to answer in this thesis is on the factors associated with political polarization within the millennial generation. One of the most pressing issues to this generation is what …

When The Clocks Strike Thirteen: Political Repression In Modern America (1990-2015), Faiza Begani

Honors Undergraduate Theses

Abounding acts of repression committed in democracies have continued to be overlooked and under-analyzed by many researchers and scholars due to "democratic exceptionalism". As the United States enters yet another consecutive year of declining political satisfaction and freedom. It has become pertinent that as conflict study researchers, scholars, and readers alike that there is a basic understanding of coercion including acts that have been committed within our own countries. Countless scholars have focused conflict study research on underdeveloped or emerging democracies, yet many have overlooked the seamy side of developed ones. This article aims to explain the relationship between the …

The Political Development Of Central Florida's I-4 Corridor From 1944 To 2016, Ethan M. Conkwright

Honors Undergraduate Theses

The intent of this thesis is to analyze the political development of the six counties comprising the I-4 Corridor from 1944 to 2016. The literature review will develop an understanding of realignment theory and its application to Southern and Florida politics. The data analysis will analyze Presidential, Gubernatorial and Senate Election Results from the six counties, compared with census data for each of the six counties to show voting trends at a county-level basis. U.S. Census Data from 1940 to 2010 will also be used to analyze population and population density of the region at-large, and at a countywide level, …

Florida Nonpartisan Trial Court Elections: An Analysis Of Voter Turnout And Ballot Roll-Off, Shannon L. Fagan

Honors Undergraduate Theses

This research explains the variance in voter turnout and ballot roll-off in county and circuit nonpartisan judicial elections in Florida from 2014 and 2016. Based on theory, a collection of constituent (demographic and socioeconomic), candidate, competition, and contextual variables is gathered to construct four regression models. Two full regression models were constructed for turnout and roll-off and analyzed using SPSS software, in addition to two best regression models analyzing five statistically significant variables found within each full model. Presidential year elections and higher populations age 65 and up had positive impacts on voter turnout, while primary elections, campaign expenditures, and …