American Politics Commons^™

Politics In Public Health: Growing Partisan Divides In Covid-19 Vaccine Attitudes And Uptake Post-2021 Presidential Inauguration, Hongbin Fan, Zhongliang Zhou, Guanping Liu, Chi Shen, Qi Zhang

Epidemiology, Biostatistics, & Environmental Health Faculty Publications

Objectives: To investigate whether the 2021 U.S. presidential inauguration contributed to a widening of partisan divides in COVID-19 vaccine attitudes and uptake. Methods: We leverage the presidential inauguration as a natural experiment and analyze data from the Household Pulse Survey and CDC vaccination records. Using a difference-in-differences framework with continuous treatment, we examine how the transition differentially affected state-level vaccine refusal rates and county-level vaccination rates, based on varying levels of partisanship as measured by the Trump-Biden vote gap. Results: Following Biden's inauguration, vaccine refusal declined more in pro-Biden states. Distrust in government and vaccines accounted for approximately 80% of …

Manifesting A Shift In The "Overton Window": The Threat Of Project 2025 On The Lgbtq+ Community In Higher Education, Athena M. King, Sara Sanatkar

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Since the first Trump administration, historically marginalized groups in the United States have been subjected to greater instances of bigotry and discrimination due to conservative influence on sociopolitical institutions. These actions suggest a shift in the "Overton Window," whereby policy preferences previously deemed "unacceptable" are given consideration in the mainstream, especially by conservative policy actors. "Project 2025" is a comprehensive plan to restructure the federal government according to conservative dictates in the second Trump administration. This article is an examination of how higher education may be impacted by this plan, especially as it relates to LGBTQ+ faculty, administration, staff, and …

In Search Of The Rational Voter In The 2020 Presidential Election: Understanding The Impact Of Voter Costs And Benefits On Turnout, Norou Diawara, Tiffany Henley, Samuel L. Brown, Md Iqbal Hossain

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

The ability to vote is one of the most valuable rights and privileges afforded by the Constitution of the United States to its citizens. For many, voting is not just a civic duty; it is also a choice. Voting is crucial to our democracy, and any changes to it may affect the efficiency of the democratic process. The bigger question is whether voters behave rationally by engaging in a cost-benefit calculus in deciding whether or not to vote. Using data science, this paper will examine the probability of voting and investigate its impact via cost and benefit among other variables …

A Bargaining Theory Of Us-China Economic Rivalry: Differentiating The Trade And Technology Wars, Cathy Xuauxuan Wu

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

This article examines the outbreak and persistence of US–China economic war, which comprises both the trade war, featured with retaliatory tariffs, and the technology war, featured with restrictions on Chinese access to US technologies. Building on the analytical framework of bargaining and war, I argue that different components of the economic war emerged from distinct causes. The outbreak of the trade war was primarily driven by the information problem, characterized by mutual uncertainty and the lack of effective communications. The technology war was largely a result of the commitment problem driven by the existing power’s concern regarding potential future changes …

Nato Past 75: Moving Into A Twenty Years' Crisis, 2021-2041, Simon Serfaty

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

[Introduction] "A constructive treatment of Europe's present-day problems calls for historical thinking which is something more than mere historical knowledge," wrote historian Hajo Holborn about the political collapse of Europe. Historical thinking views the moment as a combination of Saint Augustine's "three presents" - of things past and things future as well as of things present. Admittedly, it is on all three accounts that current conditions now look bleak on both sides of the Atlantic. At home, the constitutional order is at risk in the United States and other Western democracies, pending the next national election; abroad, the postwar institutional …

International Intrigue In The American Colonies, Arianna Vicinanza

Graduate Research Conference (GSIS)

Spies have always been a subject of intrigue, nowadays we are surrounded by films, tv series, and books based on undercover business. Usually espionage is associated with WW2 or the Cold War, two periods of times in which espionage and secret agencies were essential in order to gather critical information about the enemy. Despite common belief that secret services developed one century ago, espionage and Spy Rings are as old as time. Espionage is the oldest profession in the world, kings used spies to monitor the enemy or to discover plots going around the royal court. In the American Revolution, …

Reputation: An Analysis Of How Reputation Influenced United States Presidents In Foreign Policy, Casey Reca

Graduate Research Conference (GSIS)

How did the United States president's perception of the US's reputation influence that administration's foreign policy? Using empirical evidence to demonstrate how the president's perception of the country's reputation influences that leader's foreign policy, this paper will examine the presidencies of President Jimmy Carter, President Ronald Reagan, President George W. Bush, and President Barack Obama. This paper will also investigate how these presidents attempted to build upon the American reputation. The research suggests that the perception of the US's reputation has influenced these presidents to become more insistent in their attempts to out-maneuver their predecessors. Presidents have done so through …

Complex Global Value Chains And Economic Interdependence: A New Look At The Opportunity Costs Argument, Melle Scholten

Graduate Research Conference (GSIS)

The classical economic interdependence argument states that trade and investment between countries make conflict less likely, because they increase the opportunity costs of war. War means that trade and investment will dry up, to the detriment of society as a whole. The increased opportunity costs of war (vis-`a-vis peace) means war will be less likely to occur between interdependent states. Certain strands of realism have challenged this assertion. They argue that expectations that trade will decline in future can be a strong incentive for initiating conflict. Giving increasing political and economic tensions between the world’s superpowers – the USA and …

The Role Of Black Women In The American Civil Rights Movement, Ashley Levins

OUR Journal: ODU Undergraduate Research Journal

This essay examines the role of Black women in the American Civil Rights Movement. This is achieved through a review of literature, followed by an analysis of the First Wave of Feminism, prominent Black female leaders, and the issue of erasure of Black women. Ultimately, the essay argues that Black women were the spine of the American Civil Rights Movement, despite their historical erasure.

Conceptual Metaphor Usage In Glenn Youngkin’S 2021 Gubernatorial Campaign, Sara Rose Hotaling

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

In “Conceptual Metaphor in Everyday Language,” Lakoff and Johnson suggest that conceptual metaphors pervade everyday language and produce the reality of our world. Conceptual metaphors act similarly within the occupational register of political campaigns in that they both support and construct a set of beliefs that become the reality of politicians, political parties, and constituents. In this language research, the conceptual metaphors employed by Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin during his 2021 gubernatorial campaign were identified, analyzed, and categorized. The corpus of this research consists of two gubernatorial debates, three campaign speeches, and one television interview. An example of conceptual metaphor …

Life In Hampton Roads Survey Press Release #2: Politics And Political Opinions, Social Science Research Center, Old Dominion University

Life in Hampton Roads Survey Report

Life in Hampton Roads 2022 - Politics and Political Opinions

The Life in Hampton Roads survey always includes a few questions about political attitudes. In 2022 the questions included party affiliation, political ideology, job approval of President Biden, Gov. Youngkin and local mayors.

Abraham Lincoln: Thoughts On Slavery And Racial Equality, Abraham Scofield

OUR Journal: ODU Undergraduate Research Journal

Looking at the political thought of Abraham Lincoln, two major themes arise: slavery and racial equality. Development of his thought on these subjects spanned his entire life and is revealed through his speeches, public statements, and written works. With the sheer amount of thought that Lincoln dedicated to these subjects, it can be difficult to decipher where he truly stood on these issues. To come to a more concrete understanding of Lincoln’s thought regarding these subjects, this article offers multiple interpretations of each of these themes. Concerning Lincoln’s thought on slavery, three interpretations arise: the Anti-Expansion interpretation, the Moral Opposition …

Armageddon Revisited: The 1973 Gubernatorial Election In Virginia, James R. Sweeney

History Faculty Publications

Threatening a lawsuit, Howell prepared a memorandum to NBC citing evidence of voters changing their votes to Godwin, because as one put it, "A national network can't be wrong."⁷⁸ Howell's memorandum also mentioned an indirect tie of McGee to Godwin. Godwin constantly demanded that Howell disclose how he would replace the revenue under his tax plan.⁴³ Throughout the campaign, Godwin stressed inconsistencies between positions Howell took on various issues in 1973 and what he had said in the past. Godwin also cited Howell's endorsement of his candidacy for governor in 1965 and his comment in April that Godwin …

Keeping It Complex With Philip Hunton, John Locke, And The United States Federal Judiciary: On The Merit Of Murkiness In Separation Of Powers Jurisprudence, Michelle M. Kundmueller

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

This article draws on the resources of a little-known political theorist, Philip Hunton, to explain the function of “murky” jurisprudence in the maintenance of separation of powers over time. In the era immediately before the drafting of the United States Constitution, separation of powers was a touted remedy to tyranny. But if government is thus moderated, a critical question arises: who will judge the precise contours of each institution’s powers? This article addresses this longstanding question by comparing the solutions offered by Philip Hunton, John Locke, and the United States judiciary. I conclude that the judiciary’s decried inability to clarify …

Life In Hampton Roads Survey Press Release #4: Politics & Ethics In Government, Social Science Research Center, Old Dominion University

Life in Hampton Roads Survey Report

Life in Hampton Roads 2021 - Politics & Ethics in Government

The Life in Hampton Roads survey typically includes a few questions about political attitudes. In 2021, the questions asked included party affiliation, job approval of President Biden and preferences for the 2021 gubernatorial election. The survey also included a set of questions about ethics in local government that have been asked in previous surveys.

Recent Trends In Heat-Related Mortality In The United States: An Update Through 2018, Scott C. Sheridan, P. Grady Dixon, Adam J. Kalkstein, Michael J. Allen

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Much research has shown a general decrease in the negative health response to extreme heat events in recent decades. With a society that is growing older, and a climate that is warming, whether this trend can continue is an open question. Using eight additional years of mortality data, we extend our previous research to explore trends in heat-related mortality across the United States. For the period 1975–2018, we examined the mortality associated with extreme-heat-event days across the 107 largest metropolitan areas. Mortality response was assessed over a cumulative 10-day lag period following events that were defined using thresholds of the …

The Consistency Of Voting Habits Among College Students, Mychala Walker

Virginias Collegiate Honors Council Conference

For generations, it was suggested that college students do not vote, despite research suggesting that voting is habit forming and youth voting can determine the trend for future civic engagement. The purpose of this project is to determine if voter disenfranchisement is the cause of such a lack of civil engagement among college students. I believed that college students did not vote because of the unclear laws and regulations regarding voting as a student. To collect data, I surveyed 71 Virginia State University students of various classifications and majors. Questions regarding demographics, voter registration status, and past voting history were …

Victory By The Weakest: Effects Of Negative Advertising In N>2 Candidate Campaigns, Jesse T. Richman

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

The truel, or three way duel, has distinct properties from duels: the weakest contestant often has a very good chance to win. This paper explores application of the logic of truels to election campaigns involving negative advertising. We show that negative campaigning that pits the leading candidates against each other can create circumstances in which the third (or worse) place candidate wins in one or more of the Nash equilibria of the game. We then study whether the simulated existence of an opportunity for Nash equilibrium victory by third place candidates predicts such outcomes in U.S. state-wide elections.

Challenges In Upgrading Emergency Power In Florida Nursing Homes Following Hurricane Irma, Nicole S. Hutton, Michael J. Allen

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Maintaining and restoring electricity after a disaster helps to preserve the health and well-being of the elderly who are at increased risk of heat stress and may be dependent upon life-sustaining medical equipment. Mitigation policies altered in reaction to increased public interest without thorough consideration of industry-specific resources may contribute to delays in implementation and unrealized potential for emergency power coverage within individual facilities. The objectives of this research are twofold: (i) to examine the relationship between preexisting conditions of life-safety systems at facilities and date of implementation of emergency power regulation improvements and (ii) to assess the role of …

Design For Sustainment: Governance Engineering In Major Acquisition Programs, William Baker, Kaitlynn M. Castelle, Joseph M. Bradley, Lucas C. Marino

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

During acquisition for a sustainment-dominated, major capital asset, decision-making and action to develop the sustainment system must begin early in the acquisition process to sufficiently align the necessary integrated logistics support demanded by these systems. Effective governance improves the likelihood of success for delivery of the asset and accompanying sustainment system to ensure the asset meets expected performance and remains functional over its planned decades-long service life. The service life of a Navy vessel can range from 25 to 50 years. In this case study, we examine the operation of the governance system for major maritime acquisitions, wherein a fleet …

Today's Environmental Issues: Democrats And Republicans, Rob Tench

Libraries Faculty & Staff Publications

Walker (political science, Elmhurst Coll.) and several contributors provide an accurate, even-handed overview of Democratic and Republican parties’ policy positions on the most important environmental issues and challenges facing the United States.

Life In Hampton Roads Survey Press Release #6: Politics, Social Science Research Center, Old Dominion University

Life in Hampton Roads Survey Report

[Introductory paragraph]

This report examines regional perceptions of political figures and political affiliation from the 2017 Life In Hampton Roads survey (LIHR 2017) conducted by the Old Dominion University Social Science Research Center. Data from prior years is also provided when available to show comparisons in responses over time. Responses were weighted by city population, race, age, gender, and phone usage (cell versus land-line) to be representative of the Hampton Roads region.

A Valid Analysis Of A Small Subsample: The Case Of Non-Citizen Registration And Voting, Jesse Richman, David C. Earnest, Gulshan Chattha

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

The development of large sample surveys creates new opportunities for analysis of subpopulations that would hitherto have been impossible to examine systematically. But it also raises key challenges. Low level measurement error can potentially lead to substantial biases in estimates drawn from small subsamples. This study details strategies researchers may take to make inferences in the context of this subsample-response-error problem. In the non-citizen voting case, which recently has received substantial attention, we show that attention to any of these strategies -- group-specific response error estimates, correlated higher-frequency events, test-retest validity, or analysis of associated hypotheses – produces significant evidence …

Learning From Small Subsamples Without Cherry Picking: The Case Of Non-Citizen Registration And Voting, Jesse Richman, David C. Earnest, Gulshan Chattha

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

The development of large sample surveys creates new opportunities for analysis of subpopulations that would hitherto have been impossible to examine systematically. But it also raises key challenges. Low level measurement error can potentially lead to substantial biases in estimates drawn from small subsamples. This study details strategies researchers may take to make inferences in the context of this subsample-response-error problem. In the non-citizen voting case, which recently has received substantial attention, we show that attention to any of these strategies -- group-specific response error estimates, correlated higher-frequency events, or test-retest validity – produces significant evidence that non-citizens participated in …

No Witnesses: Protest Policing And The Media At The 2008 Republican National Convention, Robert David Frenzel

Institute for the Humanities Theses

The importance of First Amendment protections for assembly, speech, and the press is manifest during protest events in a way that is not seen in many other situations. Entrenched political and commercial powers, which benefit from the status quo and resist the change supported by the protesters, use many tactics to suppress the message and repress the messenger. One of the tools of repression is the policing of protests. Protest policing, where the government uses law enforcement personnel as a tool to impose its will on the protesters, has evolved over the years. Another of the power center’s tactics is …

Life In Hampton Roads Survey Press Release #6: Politics And 2016 Presidential Election, Social Science Research Center, Old Dominion University

Life in Hampton Roads Survey Report

This report examines regional perceptions of political figures and political affiliation from the 2016 Life In Hampton Roads survey (LIHR 2016) conducted by the Old Dominion University Social Science Research Center. Data from prior years is also provided when available to show comparisons in responses over time. Responses were weighted by city population, race, age, gender, and phone usage (cell versus land-line) to be representative of the Hampton Roads region.

Anatomy Of Advocacy: A Case Study Of The White House Petition, Elizabeth Burns, Sue Kimmel, Gail Dickinson

Teaching & Learning Faculty Publications

Little research has been conducted examining advocacy efforts in the school library field despite the fact that program advocate is a prominent role for school librarians. One element of advocacy is the engagement in political initiatives that may affect school library programs. This case study investigates the effectiveness of one advocacy effort in response to a call for support of a national petition in support of school libraries. Data were collected, and factors underlying this advocacy campaign were analyzed. This report is a case study analysis of a time-constrained advocacy initiative, including the number of participants, demographic factors in relationship …

Is Bipartisanship Dead? Policy Agreement And Agenda-Setting In The House Of Representatives, Jesse Richman

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

The title of Laurel Harbridge’s book Is Bipartisanship Dead? poses an important question, even if the answer is ultimately ambiguous. Although Harbridge persuasively concludes that “bipartisanship is not dead” (170), this book provides plenty of reason to worry about its health.

Life In Hampton Roads Survey Press Release #2: Crime And Politics, Social Science Research Center, Old Dominion University

Life in Hampton Roads Survey Report

This report examines regional and sub-regional perceptions of crime and politics from the 2015 Life In Hampton Roads survey (LIHR 2015) conducted by the Old Dominion University Social Science Research Center. Data from prior years is also provided when available to show comparisons in responses over time. Responses were weighted by city population, race, age, gender, and phone usage (cell versus land-line) to be representative of the Hampton Roads region.

The Electoral Costs Of Party Agenda Setting: Why The Hastert Rule Leads To Defeat, Jesse Richman

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

This study demonstrates that unconditional blocking of bills opposed by a majority of the majority party--as implied by the party cartel model and advocated by former Speaker Dennis Hastert--can produce conditions in which the majority party loses popular support and loses elections. The theoretical analysis and empirical results imply that the use of negative agenda power to block bills is circumscribed by this risk of electoral defeat. As a result, the opportunity for effective negative agenda control is conditional on majority party issue advantage, party polarization, and the distribution of status quo locations. In particular, majority party roll rates should …