Political Science Commons^™

Ge2020 Commentary: Assessing The Voters’ Message To Pap (And Other Parties), Tan K. B. Eugene

Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law

Despite the “crisis of a generation”, the 2020 general election results point to a considered flight from the status quo, rather than a flight to safety. Singaporean voters, through their 2.54 million ballots cast, sent a nuanced message to all political parties and election candidates. It was a renewed, urgent expression of a vote for change, more so than in the 2011 election.

How Will Covid 19 Impact The 2020 Election, A. Lee Hannah, Craig Woolley, Laura M. Luehrmann

Political Science Faculty Publications

This is the second installment in the Shelter in Place (SiP) Lecture series. This installment deals with the impact and implications of the Shelter in Place order on the 2020 presidential election. It covers topics ranging from changes in implications on campaigning, the incumbent advantage, fundamental changes, policy effects, and more.

Can Continuous Campaigns Cause Conscientious Citizens To Cower?, Melissa Hall

Honors Program: Senior Projects (Public)

The following study examines the relationship between campaign season length and voter turnout. Campaign season length is defined as the period between either the legal beginning of the campaign season as specified by the government or the announcement of the first candidate’s candidacy and the date of the election. Voter turnout is defined as the percentage of eligible voters that voted in the election. Eligible voters include all people of voting age in the country, regardless of whether they are registered to vote. There is no existing literature on the effects of campaign season length on voter turnout. My hypothesis …

C-Dem Advisory Committee Meeting February 11, 2020, Consortium On Electoral Democracy

Meeting Notes

No abstract provided.

Clearing The Field: How Do Presidential Primary Candidates Win Big On Super Tuesday?, Colin D. Swearingen

2020 Faculty Bibliography

In presidential primaries, Super Tuesday elections play a significant role in winnowing candidate fields and establishing nomination frontrunners. Despite their importance, scholars know little about why and how candidates win or lose the states comprising these events. This study explores which factors help explain candidate performance in Super Tuesday primaries between 2008 and 2016. Using pooled cross-sectional time-series analysis, the results indicate three key drivers of Super Tuesday success: candidate viability, public attention, and media attention. These findings imply that presidential campaigns continue to be complex electoral events beyond the early primary states and suggest that underdog candidates can still …

Catch Me If You Can: Using A Threshold Model To Simulate Support For Presidential Candidates In The Invisible Primary, Elizabeth A. Stiles, Colin D. Swearingen, Linda Seiter, Brendan Foreman

2020 Faculty Bibliography

The invisible primary is an important time in United States Presidential primary politics as candidates gain momentum for their campaigns before they compete formally in the first state caucus (Iowa) and primaries (e.g. New Hampshire). This critical period has not been possible to observe, hence the name. However, by simulating networks of primary followers, we can explicate hypotheses for how messages travel through networks to affect voter preferences. To do so, we use a threshold model to drive our simulated network analysis testing spread of public support for candidates in invisible primaries. We assign voter thresholds for candidates and vary …

Geographic And Partisan Patterns Of Support For Electoral Reforms, Aubrey Kelley

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

Electoral reform has become a hotly debated issue, and it has recently been in the news at federal and state levels. On the federal level, the House of Representatives recently passed an electoral reform bill to expand early voting and allow for same-day voter registration. On the state level, Kentucky has become one of the most recent states to implement photo identification requirements. Georgia’s strict voter registration system became a subject of deep controversy during the most recent gubernatorial election. Throughout the past couple of decades, electoral reform has been tackled in a variety of different ways; some states have …

Factors Contributing To Continuing Democratic Victories In Some Southern House Districts, 1994–2008, Dillon Mccormick

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

The American South went through a period of political transition in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. This transition reached its climax after the 1994 elections, after which Democrats ceased to hold the majority of House seats in the South, never to regain that strength. However, Democrats continued to win a decent share of House seats in the South after 1994, with about 40% of Southern House seats being won by Democrats until the 2010 elections, after which Democrats shrunk to a much smaller minority.

This paper analyzes the factors that allowed some Democrats to continue to be elected …

C-Dem Annual Report 2020, Allison Harell, Laura Stephenson

Annual Reports

No abstract provided.

Man Bites Blue Dog: Are Moderates Really More Electable Than Ideologues?, Stephen M. Utych

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Are ideologically moderate candidates more electable than ideologically extreme candidates? Historically, both research in political science and conventional wisdom answer yes to this question. However, given the rise of ideologues on both the right and the left in recent years, it is important to consider whether this assumption is still accurate. I find that, while moderates have historically enjoyed an advantage over ideologically extreme candidates in congressional elections, this gap has disappeared in recent years, where moderates and ideologically extreme candidates are equally likely to be elected. This change persists for both Democratic and Republican candidates.

Factors Influencing The Likelihood Of Women Winning Elections, Natalie Browning

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

This study analyzes variables that increase the likelihood of women winning an election for the United States Congress spanning from 1970 to 2020. This study analyzes the relationship between how liberal the United States is and the likelihood of women winning elections. A dependent relationship was found between the level of liberalism rising in the US and women winning elections. Some of this study is also used to analyze a possible relationship between women being more likely to win open seats or those with incumbents seeking reelection. A possible relationship was found between those two variables, but it was decided …

What Factors Drove Voter Support For Donald Trump In The 2016 Presidential Election?, Kyle Hilles

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

This research will closely examine the past election, the 2016 Presidential Election because of the strict divide it created for voters and the political parties in power. The main research will be done through polls and research done during the 2016 election. This project will build off other research projects and papers that relate to voter confidence in a candidate. The project will begin with extensive research of past projects relating to the recent presidential election. I will also view news sources during the election and their polling data. I will also be studying the effect social media had on …

C-Dem Researchers Meeting Notes, November 10, 2019, Consortium On Electoral Democracy

Meeting Notes

No abstract provided.

House Oversight Of The Executive Branch In The 116th Congress, Molly Reynolds

Brookings Scholar Lecture Series

As part of the Brookings Scholar Lecture Series, Brookings Mountain West presents a lecture titled "House Oversight of the Executive Branch in the 116th Congress" by Brookings Senior Fellow in Governance Studies, Molly Reynolds. Democrats promised to undertake oversight of President Trump and the executive branch. This lecture answers questions about the ability of the House of Representatives to fulfill one of Congress’s duties during the Trump administration and previews whether and how this oversight activity may impact the 2020 elections.

Thailand's 2019 Vote: The General's Election, Jacob Ricks

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

Thailand’s March 2019 ballot was the first for the country since 2011, and for many it signaled the potential end of the military junta’s five-year rule. But was it truly a return to democracy? This essay argues that the election was far from a democratization event. Instead, it was a highly orchestrated exercise to ensure authoritarian longevity. The junta employed techniques of institutional engineering as well as managing the election’s outcomes in an effort to extend the premiership of Prayuth Chan-ocha despite increasing pressure for a return to civilian rule. The results of the election suggest that Thai society continues …

Thailand’S 2019 Vote: The General’S Election, Jacob Ricks

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

Thailand's March 2019 ballot was the first for the country since 2011, and for many it signaled the potential end of the military junta's five-year rule. But was it truly a return to democracy? This essay argues that the election was far from a democratization event. Instead, it was a highly orchestrated exercise to ensure authoritarian longevity. The junta employed techniques of institutional engineering as well as managing the election's outcomes in an effort to extend the premiership of Prayuth Chan-ocha despite increasing pressure for a return to civilian rule. The results of the election suggest that Thai society continues …

Influencing Political Tolerance Among Populists In The Uk, Stephen Black, Kirk Hawkins

Journal of Undergraduate Research

In recent years, politics around the world have seen a drastic change in its elections. Not too long ago, Mexican leftist populist candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador swept the elections in July 2018. It did not come as a surprise as several other countries, especially in Europe, have seen a wave of populism emerging with the election of centrist French President Emmanuel Macron and the reelection of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. In this context, populists are generally those who view the world with an “us-versus-them” mentality and who see some sort of conspiring elite (often the government) who disregard the …

A New Campaign Strategy Informed By Pragmatism: Running On A Platform Of Expanding Voting Accessibility, Aaron Martin, Zoe B. Pidgeon, Robert Calimente, Alexandra D'Antonio, Albi Taipi

Honors Scholarly Publications

Voter disillusionment is commonplace in the United States, with many eligible voters either choosing not to or altogether unable to exercise their right to vote. To the former, in 2016 alone, nearly 40 percent of eligible voters did not vote. Although it is an issue that extends to the health of a democracy, voting itself is not one that is central to campaign platforms, with candidates running on more high-profile issues such as healthcare or the economy. A solution to voter disillusionment is for pragmatically minded candidates to organize their campaigns around voter expansion as a means to build winning …

C-Dem Researcher Meeting June 6, 2019, Consortium On Electoral Democracy

Meeting Notes

No abstract provided.

Presentation Of C-Dem Launch In Montreal September 16, 2019, Consortium On Electoral Democracy

Meeting Notes

No abstract provided.

What An Election Poster Can Tell Us About Thai Election Campaigns, Jacob I. Ricks

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

In the runup to Thailand’s 2019 national elections, the country has been awash with election posters. This simple form of campaign communication remains a staple of Thai campaigns, despite the advent of various Internet platforms and communication devices. But although election posters are often discussed by journalists and the general public, they are rarely analyzed in academic research. This is surprising and unfortunate, since their wealth of textual and visual information can tell us a lot about campaigns.

When Youth Run For Office, P. Francis Wilson

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

The purpose of this work is threefold: to define the term ‘youth candidate’, to create a public data archive of youth candidates around the U.S., and to reveal what role age plays on the campaign trail for younger candidates. The first study shows the increase in young people running for office in the U.S.. The second study tells of age discrimination towards younger candidates on the campaign trail. Also within this document is an archive and photo album of youth candidates and their campaigns. The results of this research tell a data and experience-driven story of the quickly changing and …

The Purple Wave: Gender And Electoral Outcomes In The 2018 Midterms, Semilla B. Stripp

Political Science Honors Projects

This thesis offers an analysis of the relationship between gender and electoral outcomes in the 2018 midterm elections. What role did gender play in the success of candidates for the House of Representatives? In answering this question, I quantify women’s success by analyzing the extent to which female candidates’ vote shares can be attributed to their gender. I find that, while controlling for various electoral and biographical factors, female challengers and open seat candidates performed better than their male counterparts, while female incumbents had no advantage over male incumbents. These outcomes also divided along party lines, with Democratic women performing …

History Of Military Interventions In Political Affairs In Pakistan, Hina Altaf

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Military interventions in political affairs have hinder the process of democratization within countries like Pakistan. This single case study of Pakistan discusses why the military intervened into domestic affairs by discussing political, economic and social conditions within Pakistan after partition from India. This study shows that heavy reliance on the military post- partition decreased civilian authority and increased military supremacy. Moreover, this study also shows the shift from direct to indirect military intervention within Pakistan and concludes that the military will continue to influence political affairs indirectly if the elected civilian government threatens its interest.

Margaret Chase Smith's 1972 Election: The Fall Of An Institutional Giant, Allison Kobzowicz

Senior Honors Theses

Margaret Chase Smith was the first woman to serve in both houses of Congress and was well-known by her constituents in Maine as a principled, integrous public servant. In 1972, after 24 years in the Senate, Margaret Chase Smith lost her first ever election to democratic challenger, William Hathaway. An examination of the primary source documents available at the Margaret Chase Smith Library in Skowhegan, Maine, as well as local and national newspaper coverage, finds three main reasons that Smith suffered defeat: Smith was unwilling to let go of her traditional way of campaigning, she was berated by a press …

Erratic Trump Needs Some Naysayers, Not More “Yes” People, Evan Barrett

Highlands College

Editorial column by Evan Barrett which appeared in the following newspapers:

The Missoulian, April 9, 2019

The Montana Post, April 13, 2019

The Missoula Current, April 12, 2019

The Montana Standard, April 14, 2019

Here’S Looking At You: Public- Versus Elite-Driven Models Of Presidential Primary Elections, Colin D. Swearingen, Elizabeth A. Stiles, Kate Finneran*

2019 Faculty Bibliography

Objective. This study advances the presidential primary literature in two ways. First, since many studies in this literature advocate for more detailed theoretical development, we incorporate an interdisciplinary approach by utilizing social contagion theory from the field of sociology. Second, presidential primaries do not adequately explore what role the public plays during the invisible primary. We thus incorporate Google Trends data into presidential primary models to account for the relative amount of public attention for each presidential primary candidate. Methods. We use fixed effects regression to determine the impact of public attention on a candidate’s share of the contested primary …

East Chicago Politics: A Cornucopia Of Corruption, Tina Ebenger, Tracey Mccabe

Midwest Social Sciences Journal

Despite the comical title, there is a lot of corruption in East Chicago (IN) politics. One mayoral election had to have a “do-over” because of fraudulent absentee ballots, and a former mayor is doing time in jail for using public monies to remodel his home. This cornucopia of corruption extended to the indictment of six public officials (the so-called Sidewalk Six) in East Chicago for misusing public funds for political gain, specifically vote-buying, in the 1999 mayoral reelection of Robert Pastrick. These officials, ranging from a parks superintendent to a city engineer to several city council members, bought votes by …

Russia Today, Cyberterrorists Tomorrow: U.S. Failure To Prepare Democracy For Cyberspace, Jonathan F. Lancelot

Journal of Digital Forensics, Security and Law

This paper is designed to expose vulnerabilities within the US electoral system, the use of cyberspace to exploit weaknesses within the information assurance strategies of the democratic and republican party organizations, and deficiencies within the social media communications and voting machine exploits. A brief history of discriminatory practices in voting rights and voting access will be set as the foundation for the argument that the system is vulnerable in the cyber age, and the need for reform at the local, state and national levels will be emphasized. The possibility of a foreign nation-state influencing the outcome of an election by …

The Impact Of Presidential Field Offices In Ohio, 2008-2012, Colin D. Swearingen

The Journal of Economics and Politics

Does a community’s proximity to a presidential field office impact presidential election results? Applying community-level data from the American Community Survey, we examine the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections in the battleground state of Ohio. Using spatial regression, we find that the number of Obama field offices within 10 miles significantly increased his share of the vote in 2012. While proximity to a McCain Victory Center statistically decreased a community’s Obama vote share, this result was not substantive. In 2012, a community’s proximity to a Romney field office did not influence the results. Proximity to an Obama field office also …