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Full-Text Articles in Political Economy

Global Climate Policy Will Have Net Benefits Larger Than Anyone Thinks (And Welfare Gains, Strangely, Are Likely To Be Much Larger Yet), Philip E. Graves Oct 2016

Global Climate Policy Will Have Net Benefits Larger Than Anyone Thinks (And Welfare Gains, Strangely, Are Likely To Be Much Larger Yet), Philip E. Graves

PHILIP E GRAVES

As with other public goods lacking strong special interest support, global climate policy suffers from two serious theoretical flaws. The first is failure to endogenize the labor-leisure decision when conducting benefit-cost analysis. Recognition that income generated will not remain the same pre-and-post policy results in downward bias in benefit estimation. Much more importantly, there will generally be free riding in input markets in addition to the well-known output demand revelation problem. Since even households with very high marginal values cannot individually increment public goods, too little income will be generated and too much of the income that is generated will …


Implications Of Global Warming: Two Eras, Philip E. Graves Oct 2015

Implications Of Global Warming: Two Eras, Philip E. Graves

PHILIP E GRAVES

The purpose of the present paper is to attempt to gain insights into the implications of global warming that is anticipated in the future. In attempting to think about really long-term regional implications, it seems naïve to look at global warming without thinking about long-standing trends in other variables that would be expected to interact with climate change over time. I envision two quite different “eras,” a first filled with considerable danger of both economic and environmental collapse. But—if humanity survives the first period—a second period of great promise for humanity and the global ecosystem is likely to take place. …


Benefit-Cost Analysis Of Enviromental Projects: A Plethora Of Biases Understating Net Benefits, Philip E. Graves Jan 2012

Benefit-Cost Analysis Of Enviromental Projects: A Plethora Of Biases Understating Net Benefits, Philip E. Graves

PHILIP E GRAVES

There are many reasons to suspect that benefit-cost analysis applied to environmental policies will result in policy decisions that will reject those environmental policies. The important question, of course, is whether those rejections are based on proper science. The present paper explores sources of bias in the methods used to evaluate environmental policy in the United States, although most of the arguments translate immediately to decision-making in other countries. There are some “big picture” considerations that have gone unrecognized, and there are numerous more minor, yet cumulatively important, technical details that point to potentially large biases against acceptance on benefit-cost …


Predicting Life Expectancy: A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis, Audrey B. Hendricks, Philip E. Graves Jan 2009

Predicting Life Expectancy: A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis, Audrey B. Hendricks, Philip E. Graves

PHILIP E GRAVES

Most economic research on life expectancy focuses on building forecasting models using mortality trends or constructing parameter life expectancy models with samples of individuals. We here provide a cross-sectional model of life expectancy, using a comprehensive worldwide sample, which analyses the impact of country level variables on average life expectancy. The model variants suggest robustly that proxies for technology, education, disposable income and healthcare all have a significant and positive effect on country variation in average life expectancy, at all income levels. A proxy for the health risks/epidemics factor is significantly negative. This analysis provides information of use to governments, …