International Economics Commons^™

Income-Generating Functions In A Low Income Country: Colombia, Gary S. Fields, T. Paul Schultz

Gary S Fields

Income generating functions are statistical tools used to explain income inequality and other economic outcomes and behavior. These functions are often associated with a strict human capital framework, but they need not be. Instead, they may be viewed as a reduced form equation summarizing the relationship between income and various personal and locational characteristics. Following this latter interpretation, we develop the regression and analysis of variance approaches to income generating functions and estimate them empirically using micro-economic data from one low income country, Colombia. Proceeding to increasingly parsimonious specifications of income generating functions, insights are gained into the structure of …

Employment, Income Distribution And Economic Growth In Seven Small Open Economies, Gary S. Fields

Gary S Fields

[Excerpt] Resurgent interest has been manifested among development economists in trickle-down, i.e., the view that the more rapid the rate of economic growth, the more rapid the improvement in employment and income distribution. Throughout this paper, the term ‘income distribution’ will refer to the location and dispersion of the pattern of incomes, i.e., to ‘absolute incomes and poverty’ and to ‘relative income inequality’. Empirical evidence supports trickle-down in some cases, but the evidence is contrary to trickle-down in others.

These data indicate:

1. A high rate of economic growth is neither necessary nor sufficient for inequality to decline.
2. A high rate …

Import Competition In The High-Wage Sector And Trade Policy Effects On Labor, Gary S. Fields, Earl L. Grinols

Gary S Fields

This article evaluates the employment and welfare effects of increased trade competition and protection in economies with wage dualism, unemployment, and on-the-job search. A micro-based measure of economy welfare distinguishes between workers and other sectors of the economy is developed to deal with labor market imperfections and distributional issues. For example, increased competition in high-wage sector goods reduces high-wage employment, but may or may not increase overall unemployment. Policy may be chosen to mitigate loss in worker earnings that are partly or wholly offset by gains to consumers of the importable.

Finance And Export Survival: The Case Of Mena Region And Sub-Saharan Africa, Melise Jaud, Madina Kukenova, Martin Strieborny

Martin Strieborny

The paper looks at unique firm-product-destination export data collected by custom authoritiesin four countries from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) - Jordan,Kuwait, Morocco, Yemen as well as in six countries of Sub-Saharan Africa(SSA) - Ghana, Mali, Malawi, Senegal, Tanzania, Uganda. We use these data toexamine to impact of financial development on the long-term success ofexports from developing countries. We find that those agricultural exportsthat face particularly costly implementation of Sanitary and PhytosanitaryStandards (SPS) are also the ones that disproportionately benefit from ahigher level of domestic financial development. This result confirms theprevious findings from a smaller SSA sample (Jaudetal. …

Finance, Comparative Advantage, And Resource Allocation, Melise Jaud, Madina Kukenova, Martin Strieborny

Martin Strieborny

Can financial institutions and markets enhance the discipline imposed by competitive product markets and thus improve resource allocation in the real economy? We address this question in the context of international trade, using disaggregated product-level data from 71 countries exporting to the USA. We show that exported products exit the US market sooner if they stand far away from the exporting country's comparative advantage. This pattern is stronger when the exporting country has a well-developed banking system, but it is unaffected by the depth of stock markets. These results are in accordance with theories stressing the disciplining role of debt.

The Integrity Of Financial Analysts: Evidence From Asymmetric Responses To Earnings Surprises, Rui Lu, Wenxuan Hou, Henry Oppenheimer, Ting Zhang

Ting Zhang

This paper investigates the integrity of financial analysts by examining their recommendation responses to large quarterly earnings surprises. Although there is no significant difference in recommendation changes between affiliated and unaffiliated analysts in response to positive earnings surprises, affiliated analysts are more reluctant than unaffiliated analysts to downgrade stock recommendations in response to negative earnings surprises. The evidence implies that conflicts of interest undermine the integrity of financial analysts. We further examine the effects of reputation concern and the Global Research Analyst Settlement as informal and formal mechanisms, on restoring analysts’ integrity. The results show that the positive bias in …

An Analysis Of Risk-Taking Behavior For Public Defined Benefit Pension Plans, Nancy Mohan, Ting Zhang

Ting Zhang

This paper presents the first comprehensive study on the determinants of public pension fund investment risk and reports several new important findings. Unlike private pension plans, public funds undertake more risk if they are underfunded and have lower investment returns in the previous years, consistent with the risk transfer hypothesis. Furthermore, pension funds in states facing fiscal constraints allocate more assets to equity and have higher betas. There also appears to be a herding effect in that CalPERS equity allocation or beta is mimicked by other pension funds. Finally, our results suggest that government accounting standards strongly affect pension fund …

An Analysis Of Risk-Taking Behavior For Public Defined Benefit Pension Plans, Nancy Mohan, Ting Zhang

Nancy Mohan

This paper presents the first comprehensive study on the determinants of public pension fund investment risk and reports several new important findings. Unlike private pension plans, public funds undertake more risk if they are underfunded and have lower investment returns in the previous years, consistent with the risk transfer hypothesis. Furthermore, pension funds in states facing fiscal constraints allocate more assets to equity and have higher betas. There also appears to be a herding effect in that CalPERS equity allocation or beta is mimicked by other pension funds. Finally, our results suggest that government accounting standards strongly affect pension fund …

Earnings Mobility In Times Of Growth And Decline: Argentina From 1996 To 2003, Gary S. Fields, María Laura Sánchez Puerta

Gary S Fields

In recent years, the economy of Argentina has experienced both rapid economic growth and severe economic decline. In this paper, we use a series of one-year long panels to study who gained the most in pesos when the economy grew and who lost the most in pesos when the economy contracted. Various considerations led us to expect that mobility would be divergent—that is, that the individuals who started with the highest initial earnings would enjoy the largest earnings gains in pesos. Contrary to expectations and for a wide range of specifications, mobility is found to be mostly convergent, sometimes neutral, …

Segmented Labour Markets In South Africa, Gary S. Fields

Gary S Fields

[Excerpt] The textbook labour market model aggregates all workers, all employers and all sectors of the economy into a single labour market. In this single labour market, workers supply labour, employers demand labour and the rate of pay (termed wage for shorthand) is determined by the intersection of supply and demand. Segmented labour market analysis proceeds from a different starting point. Workers, employers and sectors are not aggregated together. Rather, two or more labour market segments are identified, the groupings reflecting fundamental differences in how labour supply, labour demand and wage-determination mechanisms operate in different segments. For example, in the …

Self-Employment And Poverty In Developing Countries, Gary S. Fields

Gary S Fields

A key way for the world’s poor—nearly half of humanity—to escape poverty is to earn more for their labor. Most of the world’s poor people are self-employed, but because there are few opportunities in most developing countries for them to earn enough to escape poverty, they are working hard but working poor. Two key policy planks in the fight against poverty should be: raising the returns to self-employment and creating more opportunities to move from self-employment into higher paying wage employment.

Challenges And Policy Lessons For The Growth-Employment-Poverty Nexus In Developing Countries, Gary S. Fields

Gary S Fields

Productivity growth and structural change are generally considered to be important determinants of economic growth. However recent research revealed that they do not necessarily lead to higher growth and employment rates. Recent studies, drawing on data from developing countries, showed that only the “right” kind of productivity growth resulted in higher employment rates. Enterprises in Africa and Latin America caught up in matters of technology; however, this process resulted in a substitution of employment by technology. The same is true for structural change; only the “right” kind of structural change caused more growth and employment. Whereas in Asia, labour shifted …

Are African Workers Getting Ahead In The New South Africa? Evidence From Kwazulu-Natal, 1993-1998, Paul L. Cichello, Gary S. Fields, Murray Leibbrandt

Gary S Fields

[Excerpt] In this paper, we use the KIDS panel data to answer three questions about the ‘progress’ of African workers in this one province in post-apartheid South Africa. First, how have African workers progressed as a group? Secondly, which African workers have progressed the most, and by how much have they progressed? Thirdly, to what extent is the progress made by workers driven by transitions between employment and unemployment, or between informal and formal sector employment? We reach the following major findings. First, African workers in KwaZulu-Natal had quite diverse experiences, but experienced positive progress on average. Second, those who …

Aid, Growth And Jobs, Gary S. Fields

Gary S Fields

Various development objectives are worthy, but one objective merits special attention: reducing the scourge of absolute economic misery in the world. This study focuses on an important but relatively underemphasized approach to poverty reduction: helping the poor earn more in the labour market for the work they do, so that they can buy the goods and services they need to move up out of poverty. The core of the study is divided into three sections: defining the global poverty challenge and the world’s employment problem, presenting policy options for improving employment outcomes for the poor, and suggesting ways of choosing …

Earnings Mobility, Inequality, And Economic Growth In Argentina, Mexico, And Venezuela, Gary S. Fields, Robert Duval-Hernandez, Samuel Freije, Maria Laura Sanchez Puerta

Gary S Fields

This paper examines changes in individual earnings during positive and negative growth periods in three Latin American economies: Argentina, Mexico, and Venezuela. We ask two major questions. First, do panel income changes favor the income recipients who started at the top of the income distribution (“divergent mobility”) or those who started at the bottom (“convergent mobility”)? And second, are the groups that are found to gain the most when the economy is growing those that are found to lose the most when the economy is contracting (“symmetry of mobility”) or is the pattern asymmetric in the sense that the same …

Aggression In Mixed Martial Arts: An Analysis Of The Likelihood Of Winning A Decision, Trevor Collier, Andrew Johnson, John Ruggiero

Trevor Collier

Within the last decade, mixed martial arts has become one of the most popular sports worldwide. The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is the largest and most successful organization within the industry. In the USA, however, the sport is not sanctioned in all states because some politicians view the sport as too violent. The sport consists of many fighting forms and, unlike boxing, winning a decision requires judging in multiple facets including wrestling, boxing, kickboxing, and jiu-jitsu. In this study, we estimate the likelihood of winning a decision in the UFC. Using data on individual fights, we estimate the probability of …

Measuring Technical Efficiency In Sports, Trevor Collier, Andrew Johnson, John Ruggiero

Trevor Collier

Standard economic production theory is the basis for measuring technical efficiency in sports. Using programming or regression models, efficiency is defined as the distance of a given team observation from the technology. In this article, the authors show that the standard measures of efficiency using deterministic models are biased downward due to serial correlation with respect to the efficiency measure. In particular, if the number of observed wins for a given team is affected by the team’s inefficiency, it is necessarily true that another team is able to produce outside of the technology. As a result, the observed frontier is …

The Impact Of Institutional Arrangements On Educational Efficiency, Trevor Collier

Trevor Collier

Per-pupil expenditures on education in the United States have grown immensely in recent decades, yet student achievement has been stagnant. An abundance of research has sought to solve this enigma, much of it centered on the incentive structure facing administrators. Some recent papers use TIMSS data to analyze the relationship between institutional arrangements—that typically do not vary within a single country—and student achievement. Similarly, we utilize TIMSS 1999 to determine if there is an indirect relationship between institutional arrangements and student achievement, via a relationship with school efficiency. Our results show that the specified link between institutional arrangements and student …

Teacher Qualifications And Student Achievement: A Panel Data Of Analysis, Trevor Collier

Trevor Collier

Recent academic research suggests that teacher quality plays an important role in student achievement: however, empirical research on the efficacy of policies requiring teachers to obtain certain degrees is inconclusive, particularly in elementary education. This paper models a panel data production function with fixed effects using the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study (ECLS-K) to asses the relationship between different undergraduate and graduate majors and elementary student test scores. Specifcally, we aim to discern if there is a difference in teacher efficacy within the different education related majors (e.g. early childhood education and elementary education) and between education and non-education related majors.

Estimation Of Multi-Output Production Functions In Commercial Fisheries, Trevor Collier, Andrew Mamula, John Ruggiero

Trevor Collier

Measuring the productivity of vessels in a multi-species fishery can be problematic. Typical regression techniques are not capable of handling multiple outputs while Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) tends to ignore the stochastic nature of production. Applied economists have devoted considerable time to this problem and have developed several methods of dealing with the issue of multiple output technologies in commercial fisheries. Our paper contributes to this literature by providing another method for estimating production functions of vessels operating in multi-species fisheries. We utilize a two-stage model – with data from the West Coast Limited Entry Groundfish Trawl Fishery – using …

Tobin, James, Tony Caporale

Tony Caporale

James Tobin was born in Champaign, Illinois, in 1918. He received his bachelor's degree in 1939 and his master's degree in 1940, both from Harvard. Following naval service during the years 1942-6, he returned to his graduate studies and received his PhD from Harvard in 1947. In 1950, he joined the economics department at Yale University, and he has largely remained at Yale and has been identified with this institution throughout his career. He twice directed the Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, first from 1955 to 1961, and then from 1964 to 1965. He also served for two years, …

The Relationship Between Output Variability And Growth: Evidence From Post War U.K. Data, Tony Caporale, Barbara Mckiernan

Tony Caporale

The paper investigates the relationship between output variability and economic growth using a GARCH-M model with industrial production in post-war Great Britain. The data reveals a positive relationship between variability and growth rates.

Debt Dilution And Sovereign Default Risk, Juan Carlos Hatchondo, Leonardo Martinez, Cesar Sosa Padilla

Leonardo Martinez

No abstract provided.

Fiscal Rules And The Sovereign Default Premium, Juan Carlos Hatchondo, Leonardo Martinez, Francisco Roch

Leonardo Martinez

No abstract provided.

Intellectual Property Protection And The Industrial Composition Of Multinational Activity, Olena Ivus, Walter Park, Kamal Saggi

Olena Ivus

In a North-South model with endogenous FDI, we examine the impact of Southern IPR protection on the mode and industry composition of international technology transfer. A novel feature of the model is that, due to technological reasons, industries differ with respect to their susceptibility to imitation. In equilibrium, licensing occurs in industries where the risk of imitation is low and FDI where it is of intermediate magnitude. Stronger IPRs in the South (i) alter the industrial composition of multinational activity towards licensing at the expense of FDI, (ii) reduce local imitation, (iii) increase licensing and, to a lesser extent, FDI.

Holes In The Dike: The Global Savings Glut, U.S. House Prices And The Long Shadow Of Banking Deregulation, Mathias Hoffmann, Iryna Stewen

Mathias Hoffmann

We show how capital inflows into and financial deregulation within the United States interacted in driving the recent boom and bust in U.S. housing prices. Interstate banking deregulation during the 1980s cast a long shadow: in states that opened their banking markets to out-of-state banks earlier, house prices were more sensitive to aggregate U.S. capital inflows during 1990-2012. Capital inflows relaxed the value-at-risk constraints of geographically diversified (‘integrated’) U.S. banks more than those of local banks. Therefore, integrated banks absorbed a larger share of capital inflows and expanded mortgage lending more. This drove up housing prices.

The Effect Of The U.S. Biofuels Mandate On Poverty In India, Ujjayant N. Chakravorty, Marie-Helene Hubert, Beyza Ural Marchand

Ujjayant Chakravorty

More than 40% of US grain is now used for energy and this share is expected to rise under the current Renewable Fuels Mandate (RFS). There are no studies of the global distributional consequences of this purely domestic policy. Using micro-level survey data, we trace the effect of the RFS on world food prices and their impact on household level consumption and wage impacts in India. We first develop a partial equilibrium model to estimate the effect of the RFS on the price of selected food commodities - rice, wheat, corn, sugar and meat and dairy, which together provide almost …

Islands As `Bad' Geography. Insularity, Connectedness, Trade Costs And Trade, Luca De Benedictis, Anna Maria Pinna

Luca De Benedictis

Currency Wars And The Erosion Of Dollar Hegemony, Lan Cao

Lan Cao