International Economics Commons^™

The Integrity Of Financial Analysts: Evidence From Asymmetric Responses To Earnings Surprises, Rui Lu, Wenxuan Hou, Henry Oppenheimer, Ting Zhang

Ting Zhang

This paper investigates the integrity of financial analysts by examining their recommendation responses to large quarterly earnings surprises. Although there is no significant difference in recommendation changes between affiliated and unaffiliated analysts in response to positive earnings surprises, affiliated analysts are more reluctant than unaffiliated analysts to downgrade stock recommendations in response to negative earnings surprises. The evidence implies that conflicts of interest undermine the integrity of financial analysts. We further examine the effects of reputation concern and the Global Research Analyst Settlement as informal and formal mechanisms, on restoring analysts’ integrity. The results show that the positive bias in …

An Analysis Of Risk-Taking Behavior For Public Defined Benefit Pension Plans, Nancy Mohan, Ting Zhang

Ting Zhang

This paper presents the first comprehensive study on the determinants of public pension fund investment risk and reports several new important findings. Unlike private pension plans, public funds undertake more risk if they are underfunded and have lower investment returns in the previous years, consistent with the risk transfer hypothesis. Furthermore, pension funds in states facing fiscal constraints allocate more assets to equity and have higher betas. There also appears to be a herding effect in that CalPERS equity allocation or beta is mimicked by other pension funds. Finally, our results suggest that government accounting standards strongly affect pension fund …

An Analysis Of Risk-Taking Behavior For Public Defined Benefit Pension Plans, Nancy Mohan, Ting Zhang

Nancy Mohan

This paper presents the first comprehensive study on the determinants of public pension fund investment risk and reports several new important findings. Unlike private pension plans, public funds undertake more risk if they are underfunded and have lower investment returns in the previous years, consistent with the risk transfer hypothesis. Furthermore, pension funds in states facing fiscal constraints allocate more assets to equity and have higher betas. There also appears to be a herding effect in that CalPERS equity allocation or beta is mimicked by other pension funds. Finally, our results suggest that government accounting standards strongly affect pension fund …

Aggression In Mixed Martial Arts: An Analysis Of The Likelihood Of Winning A Decision, Trevor Collier, Andrew Johnson, John Ruggiero

Trevor Collier

Within the last decade, mixed martial arts has become one of the most popular sports worldwide. The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is the largest and most successful organization within the industry. In the USA, however, the sport is not sanctioned in all states because some politicians view the sport as too violent. The sport consists of many fighting forms and, unlike boxing, winning a decision requires judging in multiple facets including wrestling, boxing, kickboxing, and jiu-jitsu. In this study, we estimate the likelihood of winning a decision in the UFC. Using data on individual fights, we estimate the probability of …

Measuring Technical Efficiency In Sports, Trevor Collier, Andrew Johnson, John Ruggiero

Trevor Collier

Standard economic production theory is the basis for measuring technical efficiency in sports. Using programming or regression models, efficiency is defined as the distance of a given team observation from the technology. In this article, the authors show that the standard measures of efficiency using deterministic models are biased downward due to serial correlation with respect to the efficiency measure. In particular, if the number of observed wins for a given team is affected by the team’s inefficiency, it is necessarily true that another team is able to produce outside of the technology. As a result, the observed frontier is …

The Impact Of Institutional Arrangements On Educational Efficiency, Trevor Collier

Trevor Collier

Per-pupil expenditures on education in the United States have grown immensely in recent decades, yet student achievement has been stagnant. An abundance of research has sought to solve this enigma, much of it centered on the incentive structure facing administrators. Some recent papers use TIMSS data to analyze the relationship between institutional arrangements—that typically do not vary within a single country—and student achievement. Similarly, we utilize TIMSS 1999 to determine if there is an indirect relationship between institutional arrangements and student achievement, via a relationship with school efficiency. Our results show that the specified link between institutional arrangements and student …

Teacher Qualifications And Student Achievement: A Panel Data Of Analysis, Trevor Collier

Trevor Collier

Recent academic research suggests that teacher quality plays an important role in student achievement: however, empirical research on the efficacy of policies requiring teachers to obtain certain degrees is inconclusive, particularly in elementary education. This paper models a panel data production function with fixed effects using the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study (ECLS-K) to asses the relationship between different undergraduate and graduate majors and elementary student test scores. Specifcally, we aim to discern if there is a difference in teacher efficacy within the different education related majors (e.g. early childhood education and elementary education) and between education and non-education related majors.

Estimation Of Multi-Output Production Functions In Commercial Fisheries, Trevor Collier, Andrew Mamula, John Ruggiero

Trevor Collier

Measuring the productivity of vessels in a multi-species fishery can be problematic. Typical regression techniques are not capable of handling multiple outputs while Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) tends to ignore the stochastic nature of production. Applied economists have devoted considerable time to this problem and have developed several methods of dealing with the issue of multiple output technologies in commercial fisheries. Our paper contributes to this literature by providing another method for estimating production functions of vessels operating in multi-species fisheries. We utilize a two-stage model – with data from the West Coast Limited Entry Groundfish Trawl Fishery – using …

Tobin, James, Tony Caporale

Tony Caporale

James Tobin was born in Champaign, Illinois, in 1918. He received his bachelor's degree in 1939 and his master's degree in 1940, both from Harvard. Following naval service during the years 1942-6, he returned to his graduate studies and received his PhD from Harvard in 1947. In 1950, he joined the economics department at Yale University, and he has largely remained at Yale and has been identified with this institution throughout his career. He twice directed the Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, first from 1955 to 1961, and then from 1964 to 1965. He also served for two years, …

The Relationship Between Output Variability And Growth: Evidence From Post War U.K. Data, Tony Caporale, Barbara Mckiernan

Tony Caporale

The paper investigates the relationship between output variability and economic growth using a GARCH-M model with industrial production in post-war Great Britain. The data reveals a positive relationship between variability and growth rates.

Parity And Non-Parity Determinants Of Exchange Rates In Latin American Economies, Catherine S.F. Ho, Mohamed Ariff

Mohamed Ariff

This paper reports how non-parity fundamental factors together with parity factors are correlated with exchange rate movements. Seven Latin American countries were included in this study using a selection criterion that for a pair of countries to be included, the pair must have more than 50 per cent of trade with the group chosen. The econometric methods applied are appropriate to this topic and include pooled time series regression and seemingly unrelated regression. The findings show that there is support for short and long-run effects on exchange rates from inflation and interest rates. We entered non-parity factors suggested in recent …

Reserve Currency And A Lender Of Next-To-Last Resort: A Literature Review, Alida S. Skold

Alida S. Skold

The role of the US dollar as the global dominant reserve currency is eroding. Debate is ongoing regarding next steps. Moving the international monetary system to a single global currency is part of the debate. Literature reviews the eroding role of the US dollar and implications the erosion carries for the US. The Special Drawing Rights developed by the IMF could fill the role of Keynes’ recommended global currency known as the “bancor.” Regardless of the nature of the global reserve currency, access to liquidity is required to have an effective international monetary system. Literature defines a missing layer of …

A Strategy For Rural Financial Market Reform: Applying The Financial Systems Approach In Ghana, Harlan M. Smith Ii, Abor Yeboah

Harlan M. Smith

We construct, using methods advocated in one strand of the Financial Systems Approach literature, a reform-and-renewal program for one of Ghana’s struggling Rural Banks--the Kaaseman Rural Bank. Questionnaire results, local informal financial practices, recent institutional innovations in Ghanaian finance, the experiences of successful “Nontraditional” rural finance institutions in developing countries, and the operating structure of the Rural Bank program indicate that this bank can implement a group-lending scheme that will reduce significantly its transaction costs and those of its customers. We thus demonstrate how the Financial Systems Approach can be employed to promote sustainable rural financial intermediation in a specific …

Smart Stimulus Amid Deepening Debt: Future-Flow Tax Credit Programs, William Werkmeister

William Werkmeister

No abstract provided.

The Value Of Domestic Subsidy Rules In Trade Agreements, Daniel Brou, Edoardo Campanella, Michele Ruta

Daniel Brou

No abstract provided.

Territorial Tax System Reform And Corporate Financial Policies, Matteo Arena, George Kutner

Matteo P. Arena

We examine the effect of a permanent change to a country corporate income repatriation tax system on corporate financial policies. In 2009 Japan and the U.K. switched from a worldwide to a territorial system for the taxation of repatriated foreign earnings. The new system effectively reduced the tax liabilities of most multinational firms when repatriating earnings. We find that after the change firms accumulate less cash, pay out larger amounts through dividends and share repurchases, and invest less abroad. We do not find that the tax system change has significantly affected domestic investments even when controlling for capital constraints.

Economic Integration, Political Integration Or Both?, Daniel Brou, Michele Ruta

Daniel Brou

We study the effects of economic and political integration by presenting a model in which firms compete with each other in both an economic market—where they produce a good and compete for market share—and in a political (rent seeking) market—where they compete for transfers from the government. Growth is driven by firms’ cost-reducing innovation activity and economic and political integration affect firms’ incentive to innovate differently. In this setting, economic and political integration can be seen as complementary. Economic integration, when not accompanied by political integration, can lead to less innovation and slower growth as firms respond to increased competition …

Cv, Lorán Chollete

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

International Diversification: An Extreme Value Approach, Lorán Chollete, Victor De La Peña, Ching-Chih Lu

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

Sheep And Their Herders: Testing The Myth Of Rational Voters – A Latvian Case Study, Daniel Brou, Kirk Collins, Brent Mckenzie

Daniel Brou

Through the use of a simple behavioural political economy model, we cast doubt on the assumption that voters behave in predictable ways dependent on their expected support for government policies. We show that under certain conditions an unfavourable (i.e. welfare reducing) policy may result, even with well-informed, welfare maximising voters. While true that voter behaviour may align with government policies, this alignment has more to do with a perceived lack of influence, rather than policy support. The case of Latvia's accession to the European Union is used as a case study to evaluate the government's policy in terms of voting …

Media Attention & Executive Pay In The Netherlands, Jordan Otten

Jordan Otten

This report is centered around three research questions on newspaper coverage and executive compensation in The Netherlands. 1) How has the coverage developed over the years? 2) How selective are newspapers in their coverage? And 3) What are the influences of newspaper coverage on executive compensation?

Based on the articles that have appeared in the period 1998- mid 2009, it can be concluded that the attention by newspapers is not only of the most recent years. Newspapers do not systematically focus on the better or worse performing companies and do also not focus on the higher or highest paid executives. …

The Impact Of The Asian Economic Crisis In Thailand, Craig C. Julian

Dr Craig C Julian

Traces the economic development of Thailand since 1945, referring to relevant research, and analyses the reasons why it was the first Southeast Asian country to collapse in the 1997 economic crisis: large current account deficits, excessive external debt, a collapse in the property sector, exchange rate mismanagement and political instability. Considers its future prospects and shows statistics on economic growth and inflation for the world as a whole and various countries and groups within it.

International Diversification: A Copula Approach, Lorán Chollete, Victor De La Pena, Ching-Chih Lu

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

Was Financial Market Contagion The Source Of Economic Crisis In Asia? Evidence Using A Multivariate Var Model, Ahmed Khalid, Masahiro Kawai

Ahmed Khalid

The episodes of financial crises in many parts of the world during the 1990s have sparked interest in identifying channels through which such crises spread from one country to another. Researchers have identified several factors that may have sparked and induced contagion. This study further extends the existing research by identifying and testing three financial market variables to trace the alleged origin and the subsequent path of the contagion during the 1997 Asian Crisis. Foreign exchange rates, stock market prices and interest rates are three main financial market indicators, representing the currency, stock and money markets, respectively. We use a …

Financial Distress And Idiosyncratic Volatility: An Empirical Investigation, Lorán Chollete, Jing Chen, Rina Ray

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

Financial Implications Of Extreme And Rare Events, Lorán Chollete, Dwight Jaffee

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

Dependence Of Macro Variables In The Us Economy, Lorán Chollete, Cathy Ning

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

Modeling International Financial Returns With A Multivariate Regime-Switching Copula, Lorán Chollete, Andreas Heinen, Alfonso Valdesogo

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

On The Political Substitutability Between Tariffs And Subsidies, Daniel Brou, Michele Ruta

Daniel Brou

This paper provides a simple model that highlights the political substitutability between import tariffs and production subsidies.1 When taxes are distortionary, political pressures by domestic interest groups representing the import competing sector induce the government to set inefficiently high tariffs and subsidies. If the government commits the tariff to a lower level - for instance by signing a binding commitment in a trade agreement - interest groups demand (and in the political equilibrium obtain) a larger production subsidy. This political substitutability between tariffs and subsidies is shown to reduce social welfare.

Economic Implications Of Copulas And Extremes, Lorán Chollete

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.