International Economics Commons^™

Regional Trade Agreements And The Pattern Of Trade: A Networks Approach, Rossitza Wooster, Javier A. Reyes, Stuart Shirell

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

This paper uses a complex network approach for the analysis of bilateral trade data between countries over the period 1970-2000. We compute the network community structure for every year between 1970 and 2000 and compare it to null community structures that emerge from various models based on regional and geographic classifications, the implementation of RTA's and/or on gravity models of trade. Our results show that RTA formation appears to have a cyclical pattern on the world trade network community structure. We document periods where bilateral trade flows and the structure of the world trade network are consistent with those predicted …