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Full-Text Articles in Economic History
The Real Estate And Stock Market During The Great Depression: Construction Permit Growth As A Leading Economic Indicator For Stock Returns, Will Cresap
CMC Senior Theses
The 1929 stock market crash on Black Thursday, followed by the subsequent four-year period of extreme economic downturn, signifies an extremely profound piece of U.S. history. During this time, global economic productivity – measured by GDP – decreased while the U.S. unemployment rate increased staggeringly. Leveraging construction permits as a forward-looking measure of economic activity, I empirically evaluate the effect of construction permits – specifically, the lagged growth rate of monthly construction permits – and lagged monthly stock returns on monthly Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) stock returns. Lagged construction permit returns and lagged stock returns provide early indications …
What Goes Up Must Come Down: The Relationship Between The Housing Market Boom And The Subsequent Economic Downturn: Evidence From The Msa Level, Bruce Dale Service
What Goes Up Must Come Down: The Relationship Between The Housing Market Boom And The Subsequent Economic Downturn: Evidence From The Msa Level, Bruce Dale Service
CMC Senior Theses
Using MSA level data, the paper shows, that geographic areas which experienced the largest housing bubble generally suffered a more serious subsequent economic downturn. More specifically, the paper establishes that MSAs with larger declines in housing permits had larger increases in unemployment. There also appears to be strong evidence of a correlation between the magnitude of a housing boom and the timing of the decline in housing permits. MSAs which experienced larger real housing inflation offered early indications of the subsequent Great Recession.