Behavioral Economics Commons^™

Our Town: A Neighborhood Assessment, Christina Davila, Ramya Kumaran, Calvin P. Lesueur, Brett Michaelson, Renee Petrucelli, Katie Raynor, Daniel Sheets-Poling, Katie Simpson, Matthew Tomlin, Rachelle Ann Wilson

Community Project Design and Management Reports - Sociology

This report addresses the question: What factors have the strongest impact on communal and individual well-being in different neighborhoods in McLean County? It is one part of the larger United Way of McLean County Community Assessment 2014, which will evaluate the assets and needs of McLean County by focusing on respondents’ experiences receiving health and human services. Our findings are based on data from five key informant interviews and four focus groups. This information was collected from four geographically and economically distinct neighborhoods: rural Lexington, East Bloomington, Normal, and West Bloomington. Common themes that emerged from these sessions are: the …

The Undergrad's Dilemma: N-Person Games And Information Asymmetry In Undergraduate Course Selection, Michael A. Verlezza

Honors Program Theses and Projects

In 2012, the White House released its College Scorecards for institutions of higher education. In their overview, the White House states that Bridgewater State University in Bridgewater, MA, has a six-year graduation rate of just 51.7 percent. By approaching the question of low graduation rates as a consequence of economic inefficiency, my research led me to treat undergraduate course selection as a Nash n-person game. From there, my investigation led to an analysis of information asymmetry as I attempted to identify the various internal and external information sources driving course selection. Specific attention was given to Bridgewater State’s internal system, …

Short-Term Inflation Forecasting Models For Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa, Sarah O. Alade

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Short-term inflation forecasting is an essential component of the monetary policy projections at the Central Bank of Nigeria. This paper proposes four short-term headline inflation forecasting models using the SARIMA and SARIMAX processes and compares their performance using the pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2011 to September 2013. According to the results the best forecasting performance is demonstrated by the model based on the all items CPI estimated using the SARIMAX model. This model is, therefore, recommended for use in short-term forecasting of headline inflation in Nigeria. The forecasting performance up to eight months ahead, of the models based on …

An Efficient Two Sample Capture-Recapture Model With High Recaptures, Danjuma Jibasen, Yusuf J. Adams

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper proposed an efficient two sample capture-recapture model (Ma) with high recaptures and compared it with the existing models like the model of no factor effect (Mo), behavioral response model (Mb) and the Petersen model (Ms), using simulated data. We found that the Petersen model provides a better estimate of the population size when the observations follow a hypergeometric distribution and the population is overestimated when recapture is high. It was also found that the proposed model provides a better estimator of the population size than the existing ones when the recapture is high. This model is particularly useful …

Causal Relationship Between Stock Market Index And Exchange Rate: Evidence From Nigeria, Abdulrasheed Zubair

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper uses Johansen’s cointegration to test for the possibility of cointegration and Granger-causality to estimate the causal relationship between stock market index and monetary indicators (exchange rate and M2) before and during the global financial crisis for Nigeria, using monthly data for the period 2001–2011. Results suggest absence of long-run relationship before and during the crisis. The Granger-causality tests show a uni-directional causality running from M2 to ASI before the crisis while during the period of the crisis there is absence of causality between the variables. This suggests that ASI show responsiveness to M2. Thus, absence of the direct …

Investigating Chaos In The Nigerian Asset And Resource Management (Arm) Discovery Fund, Ibiyinka A. Fuwape, Samuel T. Ogunjo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates chaos in a Nigerian mutual fund, Asset and Resource Management Company Limited (ARM) for a period of eleven years. The existence of chaotic signals in the data was identified by the reconstruction of the phase space of the daily closing price of the fund and the delay time was quantified using mutual information function and the embedding dimension by the false nearest neighbours, where the values were identified to be 15 and 20 respectively. The presence of chaotic signals in the ARM data was further confirmed by the correlation dimension method which yielded a dimension of 2.2 …

Modeling The Nigerian Inflation Rates Using Periodogram And Fourier Series Analysis, Chukwuemeka O. Omekara,, Emmanuel J. Ekpenyong, Micheal P. Ekerete

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This work considers the application of Periodogram and Fourier Series Analysis to model all-items monthly inflation rates in Nigeria from 2003 to 2011. The main objectives are to identify inflation cycles, fit a suitable model to the data and make forecasts of future values. To achieve these objectives, monthly all-items inflation rates for the period were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) website. Periodogram and Fourier series methods of analysis are used to analyze the data. Based on the analysis, it was found that inflation cycle within the period was fifty one (51) months, which coincides with the …

Nigerian Stock Index: A Search For Optimal Garch Model Using High Frequency Data, Olaoluwa Simon Yaya

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper attempts to fit the best Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model for All Share Index (ASI) of Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) returns. A search is made on various GARCH variants specified on the assumptions of stationarity and asymmetry. Fractionally integrated types are also considered to capture the possibility of return series having property of long range dependency. The parameter estimations are carried out on the assumptions of normality and non-normality of GARCH innovations, with models and forecasts evaluated using information criteria and loss functions respectively. Under normality assumption, Hyperbolic GARCH (HYGARCH(1,d,1)) model is selected and Integrated GARCH (IGARCH(1,1)) …

Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria External Reserves, Iheanyichukwu S. Iwueze, Eleazar C. Nwogu, Valentine U. Nlebedim

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper discusses the levels and trend of external reserves in Nigeria. The relevance of this lies in the fact that it could help to monitor the reserves and throw early warning signal about any economic crisis. Monthly data on Nigeria external reserves for the period January 1999 to December, 2008 derived from the 2008 CBN Statistical Bulletin was analyzed using ARIMA model. Results of the analyses show that (i) the data requires logarithmic transformation to stabilize the variance and make the distribution normal (ii) the appropriate model that best describes the pattern in the transformed data is the Autoregressive- …

A Markov Decision Process Approach To Optimal Control Of A Multi-Level Hierarchical Manpower System, Akaninyene U. Udom

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

A recurrent problem in manpower control is how to attain the desired structural configuration in an optimal way, since it is possible to reach a desired structural configuration using different control inputs. The major aim of this paper is to develop a Markov Decision Process for optimal control of a Multi-level Hierarchical Manpower System (MHMS) by promotion and interdepartmental transfers. This is examined under control by intervention and contraction cost Markov Decision Process.

A Study Of Household Finance In China, Zhen Huang

Lingnan Theses

The emerging field of household finance, which studies the welfare benefits of financial markets for households and how effectively households use this market, is of significant importance for both academics and policy makers. However, studies in this new field remain scarce. Using data from a national representative survey that is unique for its combination of abundant household characteristics and heterogeneous individual preferences, attitudes and believes, and for its inclusion of investment behaviour and performances, this thesis pioneers a positive household finance study in developing countries by systematically investigating Chinese householders’ investments in the stock market. Moreover, this is the first …

Hierarchical Decomposition Of U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure: 1984-1991 And 2000-2006, Steven D. Silver

Faculty Publications

We conceptualize structure in personal consumption by explicitly defining categorizations of goods and services that consumers typically make in defining and organizing these objectives in their heuristics. Results from estimation of an Almost Ideal (AI) Demand System in each of two study periods generally support the structural differentiation of consumption goods.

Examining The Low Volatility Anomaly In Stock Prices, Munish Malhotra

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Modern portfolio theory states that investments with greater beta, a common measure of risk, require greater returns from investors in order to compensate them for taking greater risk. Therefore, under the premise that market participants act rationally and therefore markets run efficiently, investments with higher beta should generate higher returns vis-à-vis investments with lower beta over the long run. In fact, many studies suggest that investments with lower beta actually generate equal to or higher returns relative to investments with higher beta. In looking at data for the S&P 500 going back 22 years between 1990 and 2012, this study …

Strategies Of Cooperation And Punishment Among Students And Clerical Workers, Maria Bigoni, Gabriele Camera, Marco Casari

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

We study the individual behavior of students and workers in an experiment where they repeatedly face the same cooperative task. The data show that clerical workers differ from college students in overall cooperation rates, strategy adoption and use of punishment opportunities. Students cooperate more than workers. Cooperation increases in both subject pools when a personal punishment option is available. Students are less likely than workers to adopt strategies of unconditional defection, and more likely to select strategies of conditional cooperation. Finally, students are more likely than workers to sanction uncooperative behavior by adopting decentralized punishment, and also personal punishment when …

Does Retirement Induced Through Social Security Pension Eligibility Influence Subjective Well-Being? A Cross-Country Comparison, Arie Kapteyn, Jinkook Lee, Gema Zamarro

Education Reform Faculty and Graduate Students Publications

How does retirement influence subjective well-being? Some studies suggest retirement does not affect subjective well-being or may improve it. Others suggest it adversely affects it. This paper aims at advancing our understanding of the effect of retirement on subjective well-being by (1) using longitudinal data to tease out the retirement effect from age and cohort differences; (2) using instrumental variables to address potential reverse causation of subjective well-being on retirement decisions; and (3) conducting cross-country analyses, exploiting differences in eligibility ages for retirement benefits across countries and within countries. We use panel data from the US Health and Retirement Study …

Grandchild Care, Intergenerational Transfers, And Grandparents’ Labor Supply, Christine Ho

Research Collection School Of Economics

One-fifth of children aged below five with employed mothers benefit from grandparent provided child care as their main source of daycare in the U.S. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we investigate how grandchild care needs relate to intergenerational transfers of time and money and grandparents’ labor supply behavior. We find that grandparents with a new born grandchild are more likely to provide grandchild care while married grandparents are also more likely to be employed and provide financial help. Grandparents with grandchildren living close by provided higher time transfers while married grandmothers with resident grandchildren also worked longer …

A Spatial Analysis Of The Italian Second Republic, Massimiliano Landi, Ricardo Pelizzo

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Optimal Classification method is applied to a newly created data set to provide a spatial map of the Italian Second Republic (1996–2008). A bi-dimensional political space was found in the XIII Legislature and virtually a one-dimensional political space in the XIV and XV Legislatures. In addition, the main dimension is explained along the government–opposition dimension rather than on the traditional left–right dimension. During the Second Republic, Italy experienced changes in the electoral system and in the format of parties. The data are used to discuss the implications of either change on the dimensionality space. It was found that the …

Valuation Of The Ecosystem Services Provided By Coastal Ecosystems In Shandong, China: Developing A Non- Market Valuation System, Jing Guo

Working Papers

Non-market valuation assesses the contributions of ecosystem services to human well-being by determining the preference of users. That is how much money users are willing to pay for ecosystem improvements or how much they are willing to accept for ecosystem losses. Through exploring these preferences, the natural capital can be accounted for economically and quantitatively. It can not only lead to better understanding of ecosystem benefits, but also make it possible to compare ecosystem services with other conventional goods and services (e.g. real estate) in monetary terms.

Shandong is a coastal province of China, which is located on the eastern …

Do Mlb Hitters Boost Performance In Their Contract Year?, Heather M. O'Neill

Business and Economics Faculty Publications

This study focuses on 256 MLB free agent hitters playing under the 2006-2011 CBA to determine whether they boost their offensive performance in their contract year. Prior studies’ results are mixed, depending on the econometric technique used and the choice of the offensive performance measure.

Having multiple year observations per player, one can incorporate the unobserved traits of the players (ability, risk aversion, work ethic, etc.) by using Fixed Effects (FE) estimation. Since these unmeasured player traits are likely to be correlated with observed predictors of performance (games played, playoff contention, age, etc.), traditionally used Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and …

Do Major League Baseball Hitters Engage In Opportunistic Behavior?, Heather M. O'Neill

Business and Economics Faculty Publications

This study focuses on 256 Major League Baseball free agent hitters playing under the 2006–2011 collective bargaining agreement to determine whether players engage in opportunistic behavior in their contract year, i.e., the last year of their current guaranteed contracts. Past studies of professional baseball yield conflicting results depending on the econometric technique applied and choice of performance measure. When testing whether players’ offensive performances increase during their contract year, the omitted variable bias associated with OLS and pooled OLS estimation leads to contrary results compared to fixed effects modeling. Fixed effects regression results suggest players increase their offensive performance subject …

Plain & Simple: The Will To Live Sustainably In An Unsustainable World, Brandi Nichole Button

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

Sustainability is a buzzword covering a variety of fields and subjects. For the purposes of my research sustainability is “the ability to keep going over the long haul. As a value, it refers to giving equal weight in your decisions to the future as well as the present” (Gilman 1). The sustainability movement refers to activists, educators and researchers who are dedicated to finding high quality ways of living in the world that are environmentally benign for all who are now living as well future generations to come (Gilman 1). This research focuses on three women who engage in voluntary …

The Geographic And Social Distance In Finance, Liping Ma

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Our research interests lie in studying the economic behavior, choices, and actions of individuals given their geographical and Social proximity to others, and analyze the consequences of such decisions to the financial health and survival of households, firms, and the macro economy. Network analysis and spatial econometrics take account of information spill-overs and constraints of behaviors as consequence of the geographical and Social distance between and among individuals. In this research, we apply those techniques to analyze aspects of corporate governance and explanations for the recent housing crisis.

The literature on principle-agent problems has devoted most of its attention to …

Financial Literacy And Household Savings In Romania, Elisabeth Beckmann

Numeracy

We present new evidence from the Euro Survey of the Austrian Central Bank on the level of financial literacy in Romania and analyze how financial literacy is related to household savings. Less than 5% of respondents were able to correctly answer the three “core” financial literacy questions on interest compounding, inflation, and risk diversification, with the risk diversification question posing the greatest difficulties. Twenty percent of respondents are able to answer both the interest compounding and inflation questions correctly. Financial literacy levels differ between regions and across rural and urban areas. Older and less-educated individuals perform worst on the financial …

Financial Literacy And Financial Planning In France, Luc Arrondel, Majdi Debbich, Frédérique Savignac

Numeracy

We study financial literacy in France using the PATER survey and following the Lusardi and Mitchell (2011c) approach. We find that some subpopulations are less financially literate than others: women, young and old people as well as less-educated people are more likely to face difficulties when dealing with fundamental financial concepts such as risk diversification and inflation and interest compounding. We also find some differences in financial knowledge depending on the political opinion of the respondents. Finally we show that these differences in financial knowledge are correlated with differences in the propensity to plan: people who score higher on the …

Financial Literacy And Retirement Planning In Switzerland, Martin Brown, Roman Graf

Numeracy

We use a representative survey covering 1,500 households to document the level of financial literacy in Switzerland and to examine how financial literacy is related to retirement planning. We measure financial literacy with standardized questions that capture knowledge about three basic financial concepts: Compound interest, inflation, and risk diversification. We measure retirement planning by the incidence of a voluntary retirement savings account. Our results show that financial literacy in Switzerland is high by international standards--a result which is compatible with the high ranking of Switzerland on the PISA mathematical scales. Financial literacy is lower among low-income, less-educated, and immigrant, non-native-speaking …

Financial Literacy And Financial Behavior Among Young Adults: Evidence And Implications, Carlo De Bassa Scheresberg

Numeracy

This paper uses data from the 2009 National Financial Capability Study to examine financial literacy and financial behavior in a sample of approximately 4,500 young adults age 25 to 34. The paper finds that most young adults lack basic financial knowledge. Financial literacy is especially low among certain demographic groups, such as women, minorities, and lower-income or less-educated people. A high level of education, however, is not a guarantee of financial literacy. Only 49% of young respondents with a college education and 60% of young respondents with postgraduate education could correctly answer three simple questions designed to assess financial literacy. …

A Qualitative Analysis Of The Use Of Financial Services And Saving Behavior Among Older African Americans And Latinos In The Los Angeles Area, Luisa Blanco, Maria Ponce, Arturo Gongora, O. Kenrik Duru

School of Public Policy Working Papers

For this study, we conducted 7 focus groups in the Los Angeles area with a total of 70 participants (42 Latinos and 28 African Americans) recruited from 3 senior centers and a church. Overall, participants were not well prepared for the future in terms of their health care financing. African Americans in the study tended to participate more in the formal financial sector and show a high level of sophistication when managing their finances than Latinos. African Americans also were more likely to save than Latinos, but their level of saving was not very large. We also find that participants …

Retirement Patterns Of Couples In Europe, Laura Hospido, Gema Zamarro

Education Reform Faculty and Graduate Students Publications

In this paper we study the retirement patterns of couples in a multi-country setting using data from the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe. In particular we test whether women's (men's) transitions out of the labor force are directly related to the actual realization of their husbands' (wives') transition, using the institutional variation in country-specific early and full statutory retirement ages to instrument the latter. Exploiting the discontinuities in retirement behavior across countries, we find a significative joint retirement effect, especially for women, of around 16 to 18 percentage points. For men, we find a similar but less …

Blue Growth In The Middle Kingdom: An Analysis Of China’S Ocean Economy, Rui Zhao, Stephen Hynes, Guang Shun He

Working Papers

This paper builds on the work carried out by OEAS in China, which established the framework of ocean economy accounting in China. It also demonstrates how it is possible to compile ocean economy data, from the existing government databases in China. The Chinese ocean economy was divided into two separate parts for the purpose of the analysis presented; the ocean industry and ocean-related industry. Data was collected for 12 major ocean industries. Using a similar methodology to that developed in previous international studies, it was found that the major ocean industries produced US$239.09 billion in value added output in 2010 …

Expenditure, Confidence, And Uncertainty: Identifying Shocks To Consumer Confidence Using Daily Data, Marta Lachowska

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The importance of consumer confidence in stimulating economic activity is a disputed issue in macroeconomics. Do changes in confidence represent autonomous fluctuations in optimism, independent of information on economic fundamentals, or are they a reflection of economic news? I study this question by using high-frequency microdata on spending and consumer confidence, and I find that consumer confidence contains information relevant to predicting spending, independent from other indicators. The exogenous movements in consumer confidence lead to very short fluctuations in consumer spending, consistent with the hypothesis that more consumer confidence reflects less uncertainty about the future.