Behavioral Economics Commons^™

The Flawed Probabilistic Foundation Of Law & Economics, Alex Stein

Alex Stein

This Article challenges the mathematical probability system that underlies law and economics and behavioral analysis and argues that many of the core insights of both approaches are irremediably flawed. The Article demonstrates that mathematical probability is only suitable for pure gambles and hence does not provide a useful epistemic tool for analyzing individual decisionmaking. As a result, mathematical probability cannot serve as a useful tool for lawmakers. Mathematical probability, the Article proposes, ought to be replaced with causative probability—a system of reasoning compatible with the causal structure of people’s physical, social and legal environments. Originating from the writings of John …