Behavioral Economics Commons^™

Expansion, Diversification, And Delinquency In Indonesian Fintech Lending Platforms, Muhammad Miqdad Robbani, Megat Nagainaka, Mahanani Margani

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study examines the impact of loan expansion and diversification strategies on credit risk in Indonesia’s fintech lending sector using panel data from 102 registered platforms between 2022 and 2025. Employing fixed-effects regression models, we analyse how loan growth and diversification influence delinquent loans. The findings reveal a non-linear relationship between loan growth and delinquent loans, implying that while moderate expansion reduces risk, excessive growth is associated with increased credit defaults, and diversification is not significant. These findings emphasise the importance of prudent growth and targeted risk management to ensure the sustainability of the fintech lending ecosystem.

Understanding Formal Financial Access In Indonesia: Evidence From Micro Data, M. Aulia Rachman, Yozi Aulia Rahman, Maulida Dewi Pangestika, Risanda Alirastra Budiantoro

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study examines the determinants of access to formal financial institutions using secondary household survey data from Indonesian Family Life Survey, Wave 5 (IFLS-5). Logistic regression analysis reveals that loan amount, savings, education level, age, housing status, and internet usage are positively and significantly associated with greater access. Individuals with higher savings, higher education, and homeownership exhibit a higher probability of utilizing formal financial services. Although the significance of internet usage varies across models, it remains a strong predictor when properly controlled, particularly due to its role in enhancing digital literacy. In contrast, income and health insurance ownership do not …

The Impact Of Monetary Policy Announcements On Trading Reactions To Earnings Reports, Sean A. Maxfield

Economics Honors Projects

This paper examines trading reactions to quarterly earnings reports and the impact of recent monetary policy announcements by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). It argues that the market, as a product of rational and irrational investor behavior, interprets firms’ financial performance within a broader macroeconomic context, affirming the causal channels found in similar studies. This study differs from prior research by looking at the recent, not simultaneous, monetary policy announcement for each earnings announcement in order to understand if the two types of information remain complementary. By conducting an event study model, this study confirms that the interaction of …

Financial Technology And Household Wealth, Rongbo Zhou

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

With the spread of mobile payment platforms in China, the micro-foundations of household financial behaviour have been reshaped, and this change is increasingly reflected in household property income. Based on microdata from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) for 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2021, this dissertation examines how mobile payment use affects household property income, through which channels this effect is transmitted, and how its impact differs across household groups, regional conditions, and macro-financial environments.

The empirical results show a positive association between the use of mobile payment platforms and household property income. This conclusion remains robust after controlling for …

Financial Literacy And Fraud Vulnerability In Digital Finance: Evidence From The 2024 Nfcs, Mercedes Palacios Diaz

Posters - 2026

Digital finance has expanded rapidly through fintech platforms and cryptocurrency markets, increasing access to financial services while also exposing individuals to higher levels of financial fraud. Most research treats fraud vulnerability as a single outcome, without distinguishing between financial loss and the ability to recognize scams. This study examines how financial literacy shapes fraud vulnerability through its effects on fraud victimization and scam awareness, highlighting its dual role in reducing financial losses and improving scam recognition. Fraud vulnerability is therefore analyzed across two distinct dimensions: realized financial loss and scam awareness.

The Economics Of Accountability: Learning From German Holocaust Reparations, Grace I. Gates

Scripps Senior Theses

Drawing on microdata from the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe, this study compares European Holocaust survivors who received reparations with similar Europeans who did not. It finds that, decades on, recipients are not systematically better or worse off on core outcomes like life satisfaction, savings, and debt. This is consistent with the argument that reparations restore parity rather than create new advantages. Where differences emerge, they point to stabilization in more vulnerable settings (e.g., lower likelihood of high debt in parts of Eastern Europe). The main takeaway from effective reparations is applicable to the United States debate: …

Essays In Housing And Consumer Finance, Spencer Stone

Theses and Dissertations--Finance and Quantitative Methods

In my first chapter, I show how consumer left-digit bias affects borrowing costs in the US residential mortgage market. I find that the distribution of mortgage rates bunch at .99-ending rates just below left-digit changing thresholds, and that this bunching is greater in the distribution of rates selected by borrowers than those simply offered by lenders. Comparing observably similar borrowers within the same 1-bp interest rate band, selecting similar mortgage products, in the same census tract and origination month, I show that borrowers receiving .99-ending rates pay significantly more fees than borrowers receiving the nearest whole-number rate just above them, …

Algorithmic Trading In Idiosyncratic-Payoff Markets: A Multi-Agent System For On-Chain Prediction Contracts, Saif Aldeen A.K. Agha

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis documents the design, deployment, and forward-test evaluation of an evolutionary multi-agent algorithmic trading system on Polymarket, the largest decentralized prediction market. The system pairs a locally-hosted 72-billion-parameter language model with a gradient-boosted statistical filter and an evolutionary selection mechanism that maintains a population of approximately 500 autonomous trading agents. Each agent generates a probability estimate for an event, compares it to the prevailing market price, and trades the resulting disagreement.

The central empirical exercise estimates a panel regression of trade-level profit on the absolute disagreement between the agent's probability estimate and the market price, controlling for agent identity, …

Trading Volume And Forecast Accuracy In Kalshi Prediction Markets, Nicholas Smole

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the accuracy of Kalshi prediction markets and how different measures of trading volume shape their calibration and predictive power. Expanding upon previous models, use nonparametric calibration curves, pseudo-likelihood regressions, and Brier-score regressions on a large panel of Kalshi contracts to compare the effects of ex-post total volume and cumulative trading volume on market accuracy. Markets are typically well-calibrated near expiration; however, at longer horizons, low-volume markets exhibit substantially more miscalibration. Holding time to expiration fixed, greater cumulative volume is associated with higher accuracy. In comparison, higher ex-post total volume is associated with lower accuracy, highlighting the importance …

How Esg Performance Influences Financial Performance In Europe: Unpacking The Mediation Effect Of Green Innovation, Esa Panganti Widoretno, Anawinta Choirunnisa, Mirza Aulia Nur Fajri

Jurnal Akuntansi dan Keuangan Indonesia

Background: Global sustainability challenges and EU regulations, such as Directive 2014/95/EU, drive firms to adopt ESG practices, yet their financial impact remains debated. ESG initiatives are increasingly important for transparency, competitiveness, and alignment with the UN Sustainable Development Goals. In this context, green innovation emerges as a potential pathway to transform ESG commitments into tangible business value. Method: This study employed a regression model using the SPSS PROCESS macro (Model 4) with bootstrapping (95% CI) to analyze direct and indirect effects of ESG, green innovation, and financial performance in European energy, utilities, materials, and industrial sectors. Findings: The results …

Reading Between The Lines: The Influence Of Financial News On Investor Decision-Making, Kalia Noble

Honors College Theses

This thesis investigates how financial media narratives shape investor sentiment and short-term market behavior. Drawing on behavioral finance and narrative economics, it examines whether the framing and tone of market news correlate with intraday volatility in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. By pairing quantitative price data with contemporaneous headlines from major outlets such as Bloomberg, Yahoo! Finance, and CNBC, the study shows that emotionally charged or speculative narratives are closely associated with sharp market swings, even when fundamentals remain unchanged. These findings highlight the influence of media framing on investor decision-making and underscore the importance of financial …

Investigating The Relationship Between Noun Classes And Plant Folk Taxonomy In Chasu Language Of Kilimanjaro Region In Tanzania, Peter Rabson Mziray

Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences

The current study investigates the relationship between noun classes and plant folk taxonomy in Chasu (G 22). The study focuses on two objectives: the first objective is to describe the plant folk taxonomy in Chasu and the second objective is to determine the relationship between noun classes and plant folk taxonomy in Chasu. Data were collected from rural villages in Same and Mwanga districts by using free listing, field interviews (jungle-walk-and-identify), and written texts containing Chasu plant names. The findings reveal that Chasu folk taxonomy reflects different ethnobotanical categories; including a unique beginner which is mmea/mimea ‘plant(s)’, and three life …

Does Idiosyncratic Volatility Follow A Random-Walk? Evidence From U.S. Stocks, Zihan Cao, Ossama Elhadary

Publications and Research

In asset pricing literature, idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) measures the firm-specific risk that is not explained by broader market movements. In this study, I investigate whether the idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) of individual stocks follows a random-walk. Using monthly residuals from the Fama-French three-factor model (Fama & French, 1993), I estimate IVOL for more than 11,000 U.S. stocks, and apply the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (Said & Dickey, 1984) to determine whether IVOL behaves like a random-walk. While most stocks display random-walk behavior, the proportion varies across industries, with some sectors showing deviations from random-walk behavior. Stocks with different levels of average return …

Is Knowledge Really Power And Ignorance Bliss? A Study Of Financial And Pension Ignorance, Agata Olechnowicz-Szewczyk, Elżbieta Babula

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

In this study, we examine the impact of financial and pension ignorance (information avoidance) on the decisionmaking process for long-term savings. We define the concept of pension ignorance, as active avoidance of retirement information, failure to make decisions regarding retirement savings, and a lack of strategic retirement planning. To assess financial ignorance, we utilized the scale developed by Barrafrem et al. (2024), while pension ignorance was evaluated using the scale designed by the authors. The study was conducted with a sample of 1,200 Polish residents aged 18 to 65, using the Computer-Assisted Web Interviewing (CAWI) method. The findings reveal that …

Effects Of Neuroticism–Anxiety And Sociability Personality Traits On The Relationship Between Testosterone And Risk Propensity In Finance, Urša Ferjančič, Fajko Bajrović, Aljoša Valentinčič

Economic and Business Review

Risky financial decisions, defined as rational calculations between expected risk and reward, are subject to various psychological and neurobiological mechanisms. In this context, the relationship between testosterone levels and risk propensity has been investigated, but the results are inconsistent. Here, the effects of some personality traits, neuroticism–anxiety and sociability, on the relationship between testosterone levels and risk propensity were examined in decisions under risk (GDT) and under uncertainty (BART). In a mixed-sex sample of 100 graduate students and experienced decision makers, we found that basal testosterone levels were positively correlated with risk propensity for decisions under risk in males with …

The Relationship Between Monetary Policy And The Stock Market Cycle: An Empirical Study In Vietnam, Nhung Thuy Tran

The Indonesian Capital Market Review

The study examines the relationship between monetary policy and the stock market cycle in Vietnam. Using data from 2007 to 2022 and employing a VAR model, we estimate the impact of monetary policy factors on stock market cycle variables. The findings confirm a two-way causal relationship between monetary policy and the stock market cycle. However, the influence of cyclical fluctuations on the monetary policy transmission mechanism is weak, exhibits a lag, and predominantly occurs in the medium and long term. These results indicate that Vietnam's monetary policy requires time to absorb financial shocks and adjust to economic conditions. The study …

Essays On Cryptocurrency Assets, Minwoo Song

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter 1 - Herd Instinct in the Digital Currency Markets: In this chapter, We establish that the actions of influential opinion leaders in the digital currency markets and potential investors following their lead drive abnormal cryptocurrency returns. We develop a psychological and behavioral factor, named the herd behavior index, that detects the herd instinct of the investors in cryptocurrency markets and captures anomalies in cryptocurrency returns. Our finding shows that the herd behavior index can explain the variation in cryptocurrency returns. Moreover, there exists a time-series relationship between abnormal returns and the investors’ herd instinct, and the herd behavior index …

Empirical Essays On Retail Investors, Institutional Investors, And Anomalies, Yuqing Yang

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of five chapters on market efficiencies through retail and international mutual fund investors.

Chapter 1 This chapter briefly introduces this dissertation.

Chapter 2 This chapter Anomalies Never Disappeared: The Case of Stubborn Retail Investors delves into the “stubborn” retail investors and finds that anomalies traded against by retail investors never disappear in the long run, defying the conventional wisdom that anomalies are disappearing in recent years as market efficiency improves. Incorporating retail trading, I develop asset pricing models that surpass existing prominent models in explaining these long-run alphas. I hypothesize that retail investors exacerbate anomalies: the more …

Stock Market Volatility In The United Kingdom: Simulating Post-Covid-19 Recovery, Bala A. Dahiru, Mohammed Shuaibu, Najibullah Hassanov

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates the time it would take for the FTSE-100 index to reach its post-COVID-19 peak. The paper utilises an exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model that accounts for leverage effect and asymmetries. The preferred models amongst competing variants was the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA)-EGARCH(2,1) specification and was used to predict daily FTSE-100 data from 5th January 2000 to 21st June 2024. The empirical exercise showed that the COVID-19-induced financial crisis negatively affected the United Kingdom’s stock market performance. The results show that the FTSE100 index could reach its post-pandemic peak around 27th August, 2024 (two months after …

Impact Of Covid-19 Pandemic On Performance Of Nigerian Stock Market, Shafiu Ibrahim Abdullahi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study analyzes the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on the performance of Nigerian stock market. The study uses a number of models that include autoregressive distributed lag, vector auto regression, exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Findings show that reported cases of COVID-19 have causal effect on daily returns of the Nigerian stock market. The results also show that Nigerian stocks are good for portfolio diversification. The results of variance decomposition confirm the declining importance of COVID-19 cases and deaths as the pandemic slows down. Further results show that, for the duration of the …

The Economics Behind The Legalization Of Sports Gambling And Financial Market Relations, John Bassham

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

With the recent legalization of sports gambling, it has become a popular spectacle among sports fans and financial analysts pursuing an understanding of it. This thesis dives into the meticulous relationship between sports gambling and economic factors/financial market relations using academic literature to understand the relationship.

The thesis explores sports gambling from an economic standpoint using incentives to understand the market participants and economic advantages and disadvantages. It also uses academic literature and analytics to make a case for market efficiency while also delving into particular inefficiencies.

Furthermore, this thesis uses characteristics of the stock market in comparison of the …

Jargon To Jackpot: The Financial Impact Of Infusing Pop Culture References In Social Media, Madelynn Solow

Business and Economics Honors Papers

This research explores the impact of incorporating pop culture references in a company's Twitter feed on the company's stock price. Pop culture is integral to people's everyday lives, providing a sense of familiarity and fun between individuals. Many companies have started leveraging pop culture references on social media platforms like Twitter to establish a relatable and engaging connection with diverse consumer demographics. The primary purpose of this research is to investigate whether this strategy is beneficial within the stock market. It is hypothesized that incorporating pop culture references on Twitter can lead to increased sales and higher stock prices, as …

U.S. Government Agency Podcasts, Bert Chapman

Libraries Faculty and Staff Presentations

Presents podcasts from U.S. Government agencies which can be discovered through the U.S. Government Publishing Office's Catalog of Government Publications. Agencies whose podcasts are presented include the National Institutes of Health, U.S. Peace Corps, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Government Accountability Office (GAO), National Park Service, Department of Justice, Federal Reserve System, and U.S. Naval War College.

“Njangi Never Dies”: The Social Impacts And Non-Financial Benefits Of Njangis In Batoufam And Yaoundé, Cameroon, Georgia Schaefer-Brown

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Rotating Credits and Savings Associations (ROSCAs) are present in much of the developing world and are incredibly common in Cameroon. The financial impacts of ROSCAs have been researched extensively, but there has been less research on the social impacts and non-financial benefits. This research aims to fill this gap and add to the discussion of ROSCAs in Cameroon (called njangis), as well as demonstrate how njangis are social institutions. This project is in the specific context of njangis in Batoufam and Yaoundé, Cameroon. Interviews and observations informed the conclusion that there are extensive social impacts and non-financial benefits within the …

Financial Literacy, Health Insurance, And Health-Related Financial Behaviors, Kyle Kopplin

Numeracy

Research on financial literacy seeks to determine whether costly financial mistakes can be avoided. Decisions all consumers face are whether to purchase health insurance, purchase prescriptions, pursue recommended medical testing, and seek medical help for related problems by comparing perceived costs and benefits. Using data from the National Financial Capability Study, this paper provides evidence that financial literacy is a significant determinant in health insurance demand that also reduces the probability of less desirable health-related financial behaviors.

Developing Countries And External Debt: What Is Wrong?, Jesus Felipe, Jose Antonio Perez Montiel

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

LAST DECEMBER, the World Bank published its annual report on international debt (https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/debt-statistics/idr/products). The report indicates that, in 2022, the developing countries spent $443 billion on debt-service repayment (principal plus interest) of their external public and publicly guaranteed debt, 5% more than in 2021. These payments are expected to rise in 2023 and 2024 due to the increase in interest rates. The report indicates that debt levels and high interest rates have set many countries on a path to crisis.

Modelling The Naira Exchange Rate Dependence Using Static And Time-Varying Copula, Kabir Katata

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines the dependence structure of different currencies versus the Nigerian Naira using constant and time-varying copula. Daily Naira/USD, Naira/Yuan, Naira/Pound, and Naira/Euro exchange rates from 23 December 2011 to 12 May 2020 were utilised. We fitted eight constant and time-varying copula families using the exchange rate standardised residuals. The study finds that the Naira exchange rate may be estimated with student t-copula, Symmetrized Joe-Clayton (SJC), or Rotated Gumbel copula models and Autoregressive (AR)– Glosten Jagannathan RunkleGeneralized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GJR-GARCH) (1,1) models with skewed t residuals for margins. The Naira exchange rate returns is timevarying, tail-dependent, and asymmetric. …

Financial Inclusion And Poverty Reduction In Nigeria: The Role Of Microfinance Institutions, Okwudili W. Ugwuoke, Oliver E. Ogbonna, Aye-Agele Freeman

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the role of microfinance institutions as a vehicle for driving financial inclusion and alleviating poverty in Nigeria using the EFinA 2018 household survey data. The probit model, propensity score matching, and average treatment effect methods are applied for the analyses. The study finds that financial inclusion driven by access to, and usage of products/services provided by microfinance institutions reduces poverty. The study recommends among others the need for increased access to microfinance products/services and an integrated poverty reduction policies that identifies microfinance institutions as a critical enabler

Monetary Policy And Stagflation: A Trade-Off Between Price Stability And Economic Growth?, Leef H. Dierks

Journal of New Finance

Several euro area economies are likely to experience a stagflation in 2023. This situation is characterized by a combination of economic stagnation, i.e., GDP growth falling below its potential growth rate, and a pronounced increase in inflation as was last observed during the 1970s’ oil crisis. A stagflation presents the European Central Bank with a dilemma. Should it further tighten its monetary policy in an attempt to align euro area inflation (expectations) with its target of two per cent p.a. in the medium term? Or should the ECB re-adopt a more accommodative stance so as to stimulate economic growth in …

Reflections On Inflation: How Bad Has It Been?, Jesus Felipe

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

THE increase in prices that countries have experienced since March 2022 has brought old fears about the deleterious impact of inflation. It is true that prices increased after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and this affected a series of commodities that are imported. Yet, it is important to understand how much prices have increased, the nature of inflation we have experienced, and the reaction of central banks.