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Full-Text Articles in Behavioral Economics
Covid-19: A Black Swan?, Ben M. Uehlinger
Covid-19: A Black Swan?, Ben M. Uehlinger
Senior Honors Projects, 2020-current
A Black Swan, as termed by Nassim Taleb, is an unexpected, high magnitude event that is often rationalized in hindsight. 9/11 and the Financial Crisis of 2008 are two examples of these tail probability events. Though COVID-19 has been regarded as momentous and unexpected, Taleb does not credit it as a true Black Swan. This paper aims to compare COVID-19 to these recent Black Swans in terms of predictability and significance. Cointegration was tested across 11 major sectors. Further economic indicators were explored with the goal of discussing the broader context of each event. It was concluded that COVID-19 was …
A Snowball's Chance: Debt Snowball Vs. Debt Avalanche, Evan Mcallister
A Snowball's Chance: Debt Snowball Vs. Debt Avalanche, Evan Mcallister
Senior Honors Projects, 2010-2019
Traditional mathematical analysis states that the most efficient way to pay off interest-bearing consumer debt is to pay the individual debts in order from largest to smallest interest rate. In doing this, the debtor will eliminate the largest sources of interest first, thus shortening the overall time-to-pay. This method is known as the “Debt Avalanche.” The “Debt Snowball” method, popularized in large part by investor-author David Ramsey, recommends that consumers pay debts in order from smallest to largest, regardless of interest rate. In this paper, I conduct an empirical analysis of the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finance (SCF), calculating …