Economics Commons^™

The Ecological Impacts Of Un-Protecting Forests: The Case Of Gold Mining In Ghana, Tate Alexander Barend

Master's Theses

This paper estimates the causal effect of Ghana’s Legislative Instrument 2462 (L.I. 2462) on deforestation in protected areas. The policy redefined the regulatory regime governing small-scale gold mining in protected areas, moving from prohibition to discretionary permitting. I exploit the implementation of L.I. 2462 as a policy shock and apply a difference-in-differences event-study framework to a propensity score–matched sample of pixels derived from high-resolution satellite images. Contrary to widespread concerns that the policy would accelerate deforestation, the results provide no evidence of large-scale vegetation loss in exposed protected areas following the policy change. Instead, protected area pixels located within 5 …

Crop Yield Shocks And Conflict In Sub-Saharan Africa: Subnational Evidence From Satellite-Based Yield Predictions, Benson I. Adomako

Master's Theses

This paper examines whether crop yields affect violent conflict at the subnational level across seven Sub-Saharan African countries: Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Mali, Malawi, Niger, Nigeria, and Tanzania, over the period 2010 to 2024. A central identification challenge is that observed yields are endogenous to conflict: armed violence disrupts planting, cultivation, and harvest. To address this, I train a machine learning model on observed maize yield and satellite and environmental features to generate predicted yields for 1,338 second-level administrative districts annually. These predictions serve as the key regressor in a two-way fixed-effects panel with district and year fixed effects. I find …

Trust, Civic Institutions, And Crisis: A Study Of Civic Culture In Italy, Nolan Joseph Sherwood

Master's Theses

This paper examines whether cultural familism — the orientation of trust toward family at the expense of strangers and civic institutions — shapes civic institutional engagement in Italy across three levels of analysis. The first analysis links four familism indices constructed from the European Values Study (2017) to pre-COVID municipal 5 per mille tax allocation rates across approximately 7,700 Italian municipalities, finding that higher Trust Gap and Institutional Distrust robustly predict lower baseline civic giving, both nationally and within each region. The second analysis uses a Regression Discontinuity in Time design exploiting the sharp onset of COVID-19 in 2020, finding …

Linking Fishery Productivity To Child Health In The Coastal Tropics, Francisco Flores-Mejia

Master's Theses

Fish are a primary source of calories, macronutrients, and income for coastal communities around the world, but overfishing and environmental changes have dramatically reduced productivity in the majority of small-scale fisheries. The social costs of these losses are believed to be large, particularly in poorer communities, but most estimates of fishery productivity effects on households are contextual and difficult to generalize. We combine a remote sensing measure of pelagic fishery productivity with geolocated child health and growth data from 34 countries in the coastal tropics. We estimate that the difference between sustainedly good versus bad fishing conditions corresponds up to …

Spatial Analysis Of Maize Yields And Household Dietary Diversity In Sub-Saharan Africa: Causal Evidence From A Machine Learning Instrument, Addi Joof

Master's Theses

MAIZE YIELDS AND HOUSEHOLD DIETARY DIVERSITY IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: EVIDENCE ON THE CAUSAL EFFECT FROM A MACHINE LEARNING INSTRUMENT

Addi Joof, University of San Francisco, May 2026

This paper provides estimates of the effect of maize yield on household dietary diversity across seven Sub-Saharan African countries, using data from 36,474 maize-growing households in the Living Standards Measurement Study Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) panels for the period 2008--2021. OLS estimates which include district and country-by-wave fixed effects yield a positive and significant coefficient of 0.070 (SE = 0.006, p < 0.001), implying that a 10 percent increase in maize yield raises the Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS) by approximately 0.007 food groups. Because self-reported yields are subject to classical measurement error and unobserved household characteristics confound the OLS estimate, we construct an instrumental variable using a Random Forest model trained on satellite-derived agro-environmental features including the Enhanced Vegetation Index, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Growing Degree Days, precipitation, and soil moisture obtained from Google Earth Engine at the GPS-coordinate-by-year level. Our preferred 2SLS specification, which adds region fixed effects to absorb persistent sub-national geographic variation, returns a positive point estimate of 0.217 (SE = 0.206; 95% CI: -0.19 to +0.63, p = 0.294) larger than OLS and consistent with downward attenuation bias, but imprecisely estimated and statistically indistinguishable from zero at conventional levels. We interpret the OLS estimate of 0.070 as a credible lower bound on the true effect, with the IV evidence pointing to a moderately larger but uncertain magnitude. Heterogeneity analysis reveals a declining gradient across consumption quintiles the effect is strongest among the poorest households (Q1: 0.055, p < 0.01) and diminishes with wealth (Q5: 0.015, not significant) while showing no gradient across market-integration levels. These patterns are consistent with own-consumption, rather than market income from surplus sales, as the primary pathway from yield to dietary diversity. OLS estimates are positive and significant in five of six estimable countries. The findings suggest that maize yield improvements can serve as a nutrition co-investment, particularly for subsistence-oriented smallholders, though the available data do not permit a sharp causal quantification of the effect size.

Keywords: dietary diversity, maize yields, instrumental variables, Sub-Saharan Africa, LSMS-ISA, satellite …

What Complexity Costs: Growth, Productive Capability, And The Vulnerability Of Interconnectedness, Pete Mcniff

Master's Theses

Growth depends on the sophistication of what an economy can produce, but economies that have specialized more deeply depend on the market access that sustains it. I test whether this dependence makes complex economies more vulnerable when access is disrupted, computing the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) from firm-level records in the U.S. Census of Manufactures (1850--1880) and using the Panic of 1873 as a natural experiment to measure county-level market access shocks from railroad bond defaults following Dutta (2024) and Donaldson and Hornbeck (2016). ECI predicts production and employment growth across all three decade windows, with the association strengthening as …

The Effects Of War Exposure On Psychological Well-Being And Social Preferences, Jacinta B. Duncan

Master's Theses

Using original survey and experimental data collected in Ukraine in 2023 and 2024, this paper estimates the causal impact of exposure to war-related violence on psychological outcomes, social preferences, and cognitive functioning. I combine a disaggregated war experience index with two incentivized economic experiments - a modified Dictator Game and an Emotional Stroop Test - and exploit randomized variation in task order as a priming treatment to establish causal identification. I find that war exposure has clear and consistently negative effects on psychological well-being, with direct personal experience producing the largest reduction in DASS well-being (β=−0.338 SD, p < 0.01), and that these effects are broadly distributed across demographic groups - though women report disproportionately higher psychological distress even at low levels of exposure. Social support emerges as the most effective buffer against war-related psychological harm, nearly eliminating the well-being gap between high- and low-exposure individuals, while economic hardship compounds distress and drives passive coping responses. In contrast, war exposure has limited and context-specific effects on social preferences: property loss and direct exposure increase prosocial behavior, but only when sharing is costless, consistent with solidarity norms operating within binding resource constraints. Cognitive task performance is largely unaffected by war exposure or emotional priming, with education emerging as the dominant predictor of Stroop performance across all specifications. Taken together, these findings support targeted, gender-sensitive mental health interventions and community-based support programs as high-leverage instruments for mitigating the long-term human costs of conflict.

Long Run Effect Of Industrial Place-Based Policy On County Level Complexity, An Investigation Of The Tennessee Valley Authority, Anita Ifeyinwa Umunnah

Master's Theses

This paper studies the long-term effects of large federal investments in place-based industrial policies on regional economic development, contributing new evidence on how industrial policies shape regional local productive capabilities over time. While extensive research show that industrial policies impact regional development by advancing productive technology (capabilities), the fundamental question remains how to measure this technological transformation. The study employs the use of Economic Complexity Index (ECI) as a measure of “technological advancements” resulting from large federal investments in place-based industrial policies. Previous evaluations of such investment were based on livelihood, employment and income outcomes, with productive capability of receiving …

Determinants Of Integration: Migration Difficulty, Mental Health, And Social Connections Among Eritrean Immigrants, Shewit Woldemichael

Master's Theses

This thesis explores how the experience of migration hardship affects integration outcomes of Eritrean migrants in the U.S. and the Netherlands. Using original survey data and the Immigration Policy Lab’s Integration Index (IPL-24), this paper investigated the intersection of economic, psychological, and social interactions that facilitate integration outcomes. This research finds that migration hardship doesn’t just make people’s lives more difficult; it breaks down the social ties and mental well-being that are essential for economic success measured by integration.

Mitigating Agricultural Income Volatility: Evidence From Crop Insurance Adoption In India, Annoushqa Bobde

Master's Theses

Income volatility resulting from crop loss presents a significant threat to rural livelihoods in India, where nearly half of the workforce is employed in agriculture. This study examines the causal impact of crop insurance uptake on farm income using nationally representative data from the 70th and 77th rounds of the National Sample Survey, merged with satellite-derived climate data and Harmful Degree Days (HDD), which is used as a proxy for crop-damaging temperature. To address selection bias in insurance enrollment, Propensity Score Matching, Inverse Propensity Weighting, and a Two-Way Fixed Effects model are used. Results show that insurance uptake is associated …

Downstream Delays: Effects Of Flooding On Childrens Education And Time Use In Peru, Miki Robert Izu

Master's Theses

Flooding is a major cause of destruction and economic loss affecting over 80 million people annually. Flooding during childhood can lead to educational setbacks with long term economic impacts. This study investigates the causal impacts of flood shocks on educational achievement and children's time use using the Young Lives Survey, a panel dataset surveying children in Peru over 19 years of childhood. This study finds that flooding causes a temporary positive "spike" in girls hours of labor immediately after a flood which subsides by three to six years after flooding. The additional hours of labor does not reduce hours of …

Unequal Shocks: The Heterogeneous Impact Of Earthquakes, Claire Marie James

Master's Theses

What effect does neighborhood wealth have on disaster outcomes and disaster induced migration? Using the 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquake in Southern Türkiye and Syria as a natural shock, I examine how the short term migration response to building damage and earthquake exposure differs by average neighborhood home prices. Using a panel dataset of population by bing tile, from Meta’s Data for Good Project, I employ time series and cross sectional regression analysis. I find that wealthy neighborhoods are better able to retain population than non-wealthy counterparts.

Weather Impacts On Migration And Food Insecurity In Bangladesh, Brendon M. Wong, Andrew Hobbs

Master's Theses

This paper analyzes the impact of weather shocks on household migration and food insecurity, and the mechanisms in which they do so. As climate change continues to impact weather patterns, subsistence farmers remain extremely vulnerable and can experience decreases in welfare. Using the Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey, we construct a panel dataset to measure the effects of temperature and rainfall on remittance amounts, food consumption scores, and child wasting z-scores. We observe that weather has strong impacts on these outcomes but are dependent on the rice variety and growing season. We do not find strong evidence that the mechanism in …

Effective Altruism, In-Group Favoritism, And Urban And Rural Values Across Cultures, Brian Chu

Master's Theses

Effective altruism has become an increasingly fashionable philosophy in recent years, with ardent supporters in Silicon Valley and other echelons of power. This study investigates to what extent people in urban and rural settings in the U.S., South Africa, and India act as effective altruists by employing an experiment in which participants must decide how to divide a $100 donation between two charities, one benefiting 10 people in their in-group and the other, more “effective” charity, benefiting 100 people in their out-group. The results show some areas in which U.S. urban populations act much more effectively altruistic than others, perhaps …

Climate Shocks, Crop Yields, And School Enrollment In Rural Ethiopia, Mallika Matharu

Master's Theses

This study investigates how climate-induced shocks to agricultural productivity affect school enrollment in rural Ethiopia. Using five waves of panel data from the Ethiopia Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) and satellite-derived weather indicators, I estimate the causal effects of crop yields, specifically Teff, Sorghum, and Maize, on children’s school attendance. To address the endogeneity of agricultural output, I instrument crop yields with agro-climatic measures such as growing degree days (GDD), harmful degree days (HDD), and soil moisture during the Meher growing season. The main empirical strategy uses a two-stage instrumental variable approach with region and wave fixed effects. Results suggest …

Loadshedding And Nighttime Light Intensity In South Africa: Evidence From High-Frequency Satellite Data, Jurney Lajos

Master's Theses

This paper investigates the relationship between loadshedding and nighttime light intensity in South Africa using high-frequency satellite data from 2020 to 2024. By linking rotational blackout schedules to daily radiance measurements at the suburb level, the study examines how electricity disruptions affect visible light emissions and whether these effects vary by wealth. Results show that while load shedding has be-come increasingly severe in recent years, its impact is not felt equally. Poorer suburbs experience larger and more persistent reductions in nighttime radiance during black-outs, suggesting limited capacity to adapt. In contrast, wealthier suburbs show signs of resilience, with smaller drops …

The Long-Term Effect Of Universities On Local Technology, Dafina Rizvanolli

Master's Theses

This paper studies the long-term effects of universities on local economic complexity, contributing to new evidence on how higher education institutions shape local productive capabilities over time. While extensive research documents universities’ positive impact on development, fundamental questions remain about the mechanisms through which they operate. Our study employs the Economic Complexity Index (ECI), a measure that captures the diversity and ubiquity of regional economic structures, to provide novel insights into universities’ influence on local economies. Building on Andrews (2023), we exploit historical natural experiments in university site selection during the 19^th and 20^th centuries in the U.S. …

What Gives? Trust, Risk, Altruism, And Reciprocity Across 76 Countries, Sherwin Mosavat

Master's Theses

Abstract:

The decades-long literature pertaining to gender-specific preferences lies at the intersection of economics and psychology with a primary focus on the correlation between economic development and gender-specific preferences. Better understanding of this correlation has helped researchers understand how individuals make decisions for their education, finances, and occupation. Falk & Hermle (2018) assess the correlation between GDP and various gender-specific preferences including trust, risk, altruism, and reciprocity. In order to better understand the relationship between economic development and gender-specific preferences, I expand on the Falk & Hermle 2018 framework by introducing new macroeconomic, prosocial, and cultural variables as additional explanatory …

The Cost Of Prosperity In China, Comparison Of Early Development Differences Between Left-Behind Children And Non-Left-Behind Children In Rural China, Yuchen Zhu

Master's Theses

This study aims to explore the cognitive development differences between left-behind and non-left-behind children in rural China, specifically in the rural villages of Ya'an City, Sichuan Province. Utilizing cross-sectional data from 570 children aged 0-3 years, the children were categorized based on parental presence into four groups: non-left-behind children (both parents present), left-behind children (both parents absent), left-behind children (mother present), and left-behind children (father present). The cognitive development of these children was assessed using the Bayley Scales of Infant Development's cognitive subscale. Regression analyses were conducted, adjusting for village-level clustering, and controlling for demographic variables such as age in …

Heat And Social Behavior: The Effect Of Personal And Social Well-Being, Antonia Michele Sottile

Master's Theses

High temperatures have the capacity to cause catastrophic changes in social and economic systems, but does heat impact our social behavior, and is this potential effect moderated by a person's social and personal well-being? In this paper, I utilize data from a 5 country laboratory experiment and run a fixed effect regression model to understand the role of these metrics in determining behavioral outcomes. The results suggest that heat alone has no impact on egalitarianism, generosity, or selfishness, but that it does have a small negative impact on spite. Stress was also found to have a negative impact on spite, …

The Impact Of Female Political Leadership On Intimate Partner Violence In India, Khushboo Patel

Master's Theses

Abstract:

This study employs an instrumental variable approach to examine the impact of female political leadership on women’s experiences of Intimate Partner Violence (IPV). It finds that in rural areas with more female leaders, incidents of sexual and psychological IPV increase. The analysis investigates the drivers behind this impact, revealing that entrenched gender norms and expectations, such as a husband’s preference for more sons, may exacerbate IPV. Additionally, despite the increase in female leaders, attitudes toward violence remain largely unchanged. These findings highlight the need for research and policy initiatives that not only encourage female political participation but also specifically …

Does Higher Socioeconomic Status Associate With Better Mental Health Outcomes Among Primary Caregivers In Rural China?, Wenwen Zhang

Master's Theses

This study explores the intricate relationship between socioeconomic status (SES) and the mental health outcomes of primary caregivers in rural China, focusing on the Early Childhood Development (ECD) context in Ya'an. Anchored in a major intervention project launched in 2023, the study critically examines the hypothesis that higher socioeconomic status correlates with lower levels of negative emotions among caregivers.

Utilizing cross-sectional data, the research investigates how educational attainment and household income influence caregivers' mental health, measured through the DASS-21 score in three dimensions: stress, anxiety, and depression. The findings reveal that higher household income and educational levels are significantly associated …

Leveling Up Financial Literacy: Evidence From Game-Based Intervention With Aspiration Treatment Amongst Rural Women In India, Akash Shaji

Master's Theses

In India, rural women exhibit notably low financial literacy levels, necessitating effective and scalable educational interventions. Our randomized controlled trial evaluated a novel approach, combining game-based financial literacy education with a video documentary-based aspirations intervention, targeting women in self-help groups in Karnataka. The study included 348 participants and employed an ANCOVA model adjusted for clustering to analyze the effects. The results demonstrate significant improvements in financial literacy and aspirations, particularly when interventions are combined. The game-based intervention alone significantly enhanced digital literacy, financial confidence, and behavioral indices such as agency, pathways, and aspirations. The aspirations intervention also independently affected financial …

Matrilineal Ethnic Affiliation And Female Empowerment: Investigating Attitudes Towards Female Autonomy And Health In Ivorian Households, Martine Hind Stølan

Master's Theses

Kinship structure is a fundamental aspect of anthropology, however, there is still a gap in literature on its impact on economic research, particularly regarding female autonomy and health. This study aims to address this gap by examining the influence of matrilineal ethnic affiliation on attitudes towards female autonomy and health within Ivorian households. Using data from the 2011 IPUMS Demographic and Health Survey for the Ivory Coast, using female responses, this study investigates the complex dynamics shaping attitudes towards female autonomy and access to health care. Analysis on these aspects is done using ordinary least squares (OLS) and logistic estimations. …

What The Stork Brought: Endogenous Fertility Preferences, Lucas Fortier Borden

Master's Theses

Where most existing literature on fertility preferences has described how fertility preferences shape outcomes, this paper provides insight into how the sex of a recent birth affects a mother’s fertility preferences. Utilizing data from the Demographic Health Survey from 1985-2020 in 81 countries containing 309,238 mothers who gave birth in the past 12 months and who have equal to or fewer than three children, I employ OLS with two-way fixed effects as my primary specification, examining the effects of the plausibly exogenous sex of a recent birth on sibship sex composition preferences. Results show that a recent daughter birth increases …

Financial Literacy And Aspirations: Experimental Evidence From Eastern Uganda, Ester Agasha

Master's Theses

Financial literacy and the cultivation of aspirations are pivotal in empowering individuals and fostering economic growth, particularly within disadvantaged com munities. Although prior research has extensively analyzed the individual effects of financial education and motivational interventions on economic behaviors, there is less clarity on how the synergy between them can collectively impact the socioe conomic status of individuals in developing economies, especially women. Through randomized control experiment(RCT), this study explored the effectiveness of two interventions; 1) a financial literacy digital gaming application and, 2) an aspirations intervention (a short video documentary and a follow-up curriculum) in not only enhancing financial …

Can Aspiration And Financial Literacy Interventions Relieve Internal Constraints? Evidence From Uganda And India, Veronika Divis

Master's Theses

Can aspiration and financial literacy interventions relieve internal constraints? We address this question through a novel experiment in Uganda and India, using 617 participants in 89 already existing borrowing groups of microfinance institutions. We carry out aspiration and financial literacy treatments as well as a combined treatment group which received both treatments to measure effects on aspirations, hope, agency, and pathway indices. Results show that receiving the aspirations treatment led to 0.34, 0.42, 0.18, and 0.40 standard deviation increases in aspirations, agency, pathways, and aspirational hope, respectively. The game and combined treatment groups also showed positive effects but lacked statistical …

Impact Of Temperature On Children’S Nutrition: A Comparative Study Of Three Ecological Regions Of Nepal, Prakriti Shakya

Master's Theses

Nutrition obtained during the growth period of childhood significantly influences long-term well-being and overall productivity, ultimately contributing to the economy of a society. However, weather shocks can wreak havoc by damaging crops, changing yields of important crops and disrupting market access, which directly impacts the food intake of both adults and children. When these adverse events occur during childhood, short term and long term inadequacy in nutrition as well as disease incidence can cause malnutrition leading to stunted growth and cognitive impairment that may persist into adulthood, affecting the labor market and increasing health expenditure. To address this issue, we …

The Impact Of Refractive Error Correction On Harvest Productivity In The Guatemalan Coffee Sector, Bryce C. Everett

Master's Theses

Providing refractive error correction has the potential to bolster productivity within developing countries. Current literature is in agreement that interventions targeting those with uncorrected visual impairment can realize benefits in various sectors, with particular regard to agriculture. The design of this experiment attempts to derive the intent-to-treat (ITT) effect stemming from the provision of glasses to coffee harvesters in Guatemala. Methodology incorporates two distinct approaches: an ANCOVA model with basic controls and a fixed effects model with a control for farm-specific harvest trends. With daily harvest weight observations serving as a proxy for productivity, and a sample of 321 participants …

To Burn Or Not To Burn: Causal Effect Of Farm Stubble Burning On Air Quality., Chaitanya Pasupala

Master's Theses

National Capital Region of India (NCR) experiences adverse air quality during winters with Air Quality Index (AQI) at hazardous levels. Though various factors like industrial and automobile emissions, biomass burning, and firecrackers during festive season contribute to NCR’s adverse air quality, farm stubble burning in neighbouring agricultural regions of Punjab and Haryana is considered a prominent one. The motivation and consequences of farm-stubble burning in Punjab and Haryana have been extensively studied but the causal effect of this burning on air quality of Delhi has neither been rigorously analyzed nor the effects quantified. This study aims to bridge this gap …