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Articles 1 - 28 of 28
Full-Text Articles in Development Studies
Short-Term Inflation Forecasting Models For Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa, Sarah O. Alade
Short-Term Inflation Forecasting Models For Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa, Sarah O. Alade
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
Short-term inflation forecasting is an essential component of the monetary policy projections at the Central Bank of Nigeria. This paper proposes four short-term headline inflation forecasting models using the SARIMA and SARIMAX processes and compares their performance using the pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2011 to September 2013. According to the results the best forecasting performance is demonstrated by the model based on the all items CPI estimated using the SARIMAX model. This model is, therefore, recommended for use in short-term forecasting of headline inflation in Nigeria. The forecasting performance up to eight months ahead, of the models based on …
An Efficient Two Sample Capture-Recapture Model With High Recaptures, Danjuma Jibasen, Yusuf J. Adams
An Efficient Two Sample Capture-Recapture Model With High Recaptures, Danjuma Jibasen, Yusuf J. Adams
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper proposed an efficient two sample capture-recapture model (Ma) with high recaptures and compared it with the existing models like the model of no factor effect (Mo), behavioral response model (Mb) and the Petersen model (Ms), using simulated data. We found that the Petersen model provides a better estimate of the population size when the observations follow a hypergeometric distribution and the population is overestimated when recapture is high. It was also found that the proposed model provides a better estimator of the population size than the existing ones when the recapture is high. This model is particularly useful …
Causal Relationship Between Stock Market Index And Exchange Rate: Evidence From Nigeria, Abdulrasheed Zubair
Causal Relationship Between Stock Market Index And Exchange Rate: Evidence From Nigeria, Abdulrasheed Zubair
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper uses Johansen’s cointegration to test for the possibility of cointegration and Granger-causality to estimate the causal relationship between stock market index and monetary indicators (exchange rate and M2) before and during the global financial crisis for Nigeria, using monthly data for the period 2001–2011. Results suggest absence of long-run relationship before and during the crisis. The Granger-causality tests show a uni-directional causality running from M2 to ASI before the crisis while during the period of the crisis there is absence of causality between the variables. This suggests that ASI show responsiveness to M2. Thus, absence of the direct …
Investigating Chaos In The Nigerian Asset And Resource Management (Arm) Discovery Fund, Ibiyinka A. Fuwape, Samuel T. Ogunjo
Investigating Chaos In The Nigerian Asset And Resource Management (Arm) Discovery Fund, Ibiyinka A. Fuwape, Samuel T. Ogunjo
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper investigates chaos in a Nigerian mutual fund, Asset and Resource Management Company Limited (ARM) for a period of eleven years. The existence of chaotic signals in the data was identified by the reconstruction of the phase space of the daily closing price of the fund and the delay time was quantified using mutual information function and the embedding dimension by the false nearest neighbours, where the values were identified to be 15 and 20 respectively. The presence of chaotic signals in the ARM data was further confirmed by the correlation dimension method which yielded a dimension of 2.2 …
Modeling The Nigerian Inflation Rates Using Periodogram And Fourier Series Analysis, Chukwuemeka O. Omekara,, Emmanuel J. Ekpenyong, Micheal P. Ekerete
Modeling The Nigerian Inflation Rates Using Periodogram And Fourier Series Analysis, Chukwuemeka O. Omekara,, Emmanuel J. Ekpenyong, Micheal P. Ekerete
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This work considers the application of Periodogram and Fourier Series Analysis to model all-items monthly inflation rates in Nigeria from 2003 to 2011. The main objectives are to identify inflation cycles, fit a suitable model to the data and make forecasts of future values. To achieve these objectives, monthly all-items inflation rates for the period were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) website. Periodogram and Fourier series methods of analysis are used to analyze the data. Based on the analysis, it was found that inflation cycle within the period was fifty one (51) months, which coincides with the …
Nigerian Stock Index: A Search For Optimal Garch Model Using High Frequency Data, Olaoluwa Simon Yaya
Nigerian Stock Index: A Search For Optimal Garch Model Using High Frequency Data, Olaoluwa Simon Yaya
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper attempts to fit the best Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model for All Share Index (ASI) of Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) returns. A search is made on various GARCH variants specified on the assumptions of stationarity and asymmetry. Fractionally integrated types are also considered to capture the possibility of return series having property of long range dependency. The parameter estimations are carried out on the assumptions of normality and non-normality of GARCH innovations, with models and forecasts evaluated using information criteria and loss functions respectively. Under normality assumption, Hyperbolic GARCH (HYGARCH(1,d,1)) model is selected and Integrated GARCH (IGARCH(1,1)) …
Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria External Reserves, Iheanyichukwu S. Iwueze, Eleazar C. Nwogu, Valentine U. Nlebedim
Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria External Reserves, Iheanyichukwu S. Iwueze, Eleazar C. Nwogu, Valentine U. Nlebedim
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper discusses the levels and trend of external reserves in Nigeria. The relevance of this lies in the fact that it could help to monitor the reserves and throw early warning signal about any economic crisis. Monthly data on Nigeria external reserves for the period January 1999 to December, 2008 derived from the 2008 CBN Statistical Bulletin was analyzed using ARIMA model. Results of the analyses show that (i) the data requires logarithmic transformation to stabilize the variance and make the distribution normal (ii) the appropriate model that best describes the pattern in the transformed data is the Autoregressive- …
A Markov Decision Process Approach To Optimal Control Of A Multi-Level Hierarchical Manpower System, Akaninyene U. Udom
A Markov Decision Process Approach To Optimal Control Of A Multi-Level Hierarchical Manpower System, Akaninyene U. Udom
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
A recurrent problem in manpower control is how to attain the desired structural configuration in an optimal way, since it is possible to reach a desired structural configuration using different control inputs. The major aim of this paper is to develop a Markov Decision Process for optimal control of a Multi-level Hierarchical Manpower System (MHMS) by promotion and interdepartmental transfers. This is examined under control by intervention and contraction cost Markov Decision Process.
Hidup Adalah Perjuangan: Strategi Pemuda Yogyakarta Dalam Transisi Dari Dunia Pendidikan Ke Dunia Kerja, Oki Rahadianto Sutopo
Hidup Adalah Perjuangan: Strategi Pemuda Yogyakarta Dalam Transisi Dari Dunia Pendidikan Ke Dunia Kerja, Oki Rahadianto Sutopo
Masyarakat: Jurnal Sosiologi
This article shows the experiences of six young people from Yogyakarta who struggle in the process of school to work transition. These young people creatively implemented long term strategy both inside and outside the field of education They accumulate various kind of capitals so that it can be converted in the future. All of the informants are from middle class background. The result shows they still get benefits from strategies and capital that they had previously created. As a young people from middle class background, they are optimist that they can reach their dream jobs in the future as long …
Kelekatan Kelembagaan: Industri Distro Fesyen Di Bandung, Rochman Achwan
Kelekatan Kelembagaan: Industri Distro Fesyen Di Bandung, Rochman Achwan
Masyarakat: Jurnal Sosiologi
This paper tries to enrich three perspectives for the study of creative industry, cultural entrepreneurship, social contract, and contextual knowledge, by employing an institutional approach and argues that institutional embbededness plays a vital role in promoting creative fashion distro (distribution store) in Bandung that historically well-known city of fashion. Qualitative method has been used to collect data from various informants. This study reveals that disembeddedness between state and creative fashion business and within society of fashion become a mayor feature of the business. As a consequence, creativity of fashion entrepreneurs unable to prosper and internal business organisation is difficult to …
Menggantung Ke “Atas”: Perkumpulan Sosial Perdesaan Di Era Desentralisasi, Anggoro Yudo Mahendro
Menggantung Ke “Atas”: Perkumpulan Sosial Perdesaan Di Era Desentralisasi, Anggoro Yudo Mahendro
Masyarakat: Jurnal Sosiologi
In democracy, the government at the national and local level strives to create an active community, which manifests in a variety of community associations. Desa Rintis shows the active role of local government in supporting the establishment of community associations at the village level. We can understand this because the local government has the structural strength through its regulations to influence the society. Besides, the local government also provides cultural as well as economic capital that is included in the relational process between the state and social associations. This condition causes initiative of some members of the community to form …
Revivalisme Kekuatan Familisme Dalam Demokrasi: Dinasti Politik Di Aras Lokal, Wasisto Rahajo Djati
Revivalisme Kekuatan Familisme Dalam Demokrasi: Dinasti Politik Di Aras Lokal, Wasisto Rahajo Djati
Masyarakat: Jurnal Sosiologi
The article aims to elaborate political dynasty that developed in local politics arena. The emergence of political dynasty is indicated by several points. First of all, the failure of function from local political party to conducts political regeneration. Secondly, high cost democracy which impeding public to participate in public office succession. Third, political power from local elite was uneven, thus resulting power centralization in few strong local elite that transforming dynasty. Patrimonialism is not always becoming main perspective to analyzing political dynasty. There are many alternative political perspectives to analyze this case. This paper used familism political culture to elaborate …
Modal Budaya Dan Modal Sosial Dalam Industri Seni Kerajinan Keramik, Antonius Purwanto
Modal Budaya Dan Modal Sosial Dalam Industri Seni Kerajinan Keramik, Antonius Purwanto
Masyarakat: Jurnal Sosiologi
Cultural and social capital is important in the development of industrial cluster of ceramic art craft. This paper describes and explains the role of cultural and social capital in the development of industrial cluster of ceramic art craft in Kasongan. This paper also describes and explains the dynamics of domination and resistance among entrepreneurs in the cluster. By using qualitative research methods show that cultural capital is important for the change of the cluster from the one which produce traditional-functional ceramic to the one which produce artistic ceramic. It is also important for upward social mobility among entrepreneurs. Social capital …
Dead White Men And Other Important People: Sociology’S Big Ideas, Fitrah Munir
Dead White Men And Other Important People: Sociology’S Big Ideas, Fitrah Munir
Masyarakat: Jurnal Sosiologi
No abstract provided.
Anti-Masyarakat Sipil, Redaksi Jurnal Masyarakat
Anti-Masyarakat Sipil, Redaksi Jurnal Masyarakat
Masyarakat: Jurnal Sosiologi
No abstract provided.
Capital Accumulation With And Without Land Market Liberalization: Beyond The “Win-Win” Situation, George Vachadze
Capital Accumulation With And Without Land Market Liberalization: Beyond The “Win-Win” Situation, George Vachadze
Publications and Research
This paper examines the effect of land market liberalization on the dynamics of capital accumulation. It is shown that the land market liberalization, which is accompanied with the transfer of agricultural technology, may not always offer a “win‐win” outcome for developed and developing countries. Improved agricultural productivity generates a growth enhancing externality. However, land market liberalization affects the balance between the equalizing force of the diminishing returns technology and the un‐equalizing force of the low income elasticity of the agricultural commodity demand. As a result, land market liberalization accompanied with the transfer of agricultural productivity, may not always guarantee a …
Democratic Governance In Mena Countrieschallenges And Aspirations, Amany Khodair, Mahmoud Khalifa
Democratic Governance In Mena Countrieschallenges And Aspirations, Amany Khodair, Mahmoud Khalifa
Political Science
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is often regarded as an area that was mostly dominated by authoritarian regimes. These regimes form authoritarian constraints – especially during elections – hindering political development. This usually leads genuine opposition parties and movements to form alliances, in order to make demands for reforms by these authoritarian regimes. This notion is reinforced by the fact that, in the most recent set of elections held in the region prior to revolutions that took place in countries like Tunisia, Egypt & Libya, political parties perceived to be anti-democratic or state run have achieved important …
Potret Intelektual Muslim: Sebuah Tinjauan Sosiologi Pengetahuan Terhadap Pemikiran Ahmad Syafii Maarif, Arie Putra
Potret Intelektual Muslim: Sebuah Tinjauan Sosiologi Pengetahuan Terhadap Pemikiran Ahmad Syafii Maarif, Arie Putra
Masyarakat: Jurnal Sosiologi
There are numerous Islamic actors whom undertook significant role in establishing Indonesian society understanding toward Islam. One of them is Ahmad Syafii Maarif, one of the Islamic figures who evokes Indonesian muslim optimism toward democracy. Through sociology of knowledge framework, this research will take a look on the formation process of Ahmad Syafii Maarif’s Islamic thought. Sociology of knowledge is considered to be the appropriate framework due to the interconnectivity it provided between historical, philosophical, and sociological framework in investigating knowledge formation. However, though being utilized in this research for its extensiveness, the framework tends to stress the connection between …
Mencari Makna Pembangunan Sosial: Studi Kasus Sektor Informal Di Kota Solo, Paulus Wirutomo
Mencari Makna Pembangunan Sosial: Studi Kasus Sektor Informal Di Kota Solo, Paulus Wirutomo
Masyarakat: Jurnal Sosiologi
The present development concept has been widely criticized for being too sectoral and growth oriented. A new concept like Human Development introduced by the United Nation is a good alternative, but it is still sectoral in nature. This article tries to offer a more sociological concept of development, since it is based on the contention that to develop human being we have to develop its society. It means to develop “the basic elements of socio-cultural life” namely: the structural, cultural and processual elements. By analyzing the data on the informal sector in Solo collected with SSM methodology, I have come …
Altruisme, Solidaritas Dan Kebijakan Sosial, Robertus Robet
Altruisme, Solidaritas Dan Kebijakan Sosial, Robertus Robet
Masyarakat: Jurnal Sosiologi
This essay tries to re-conceptualized altruism as sociological idea. It argues that altruism is possible. As a moral action altruism could also be operationalized to provide a ground of social policy and a tool to shape certain form of society
Mlipir: The Genesis Within Relations Of Production Between Industrial Sector And Rural Society, Rahardika Arista Utama
Mlipir: The Genesis Within Relations Of Production Between Industrial Sector And Rural Society, Rahardika Arista Utama
Masyarakat: Jurnal Sosiologi
This paper examines how the interactions between industrial development actors in rural setting reflect the internal dynamics of Third World countries that maintain dependence on developed countries. The diverse discussion on the impact of industrialization which mostly emphasized on particular issues is difficult to depict the comprehensive situation on the impacted society. Further analysis which recognized the existence of the mutual relations among state, market, and society is necessary to best describe the invisible but essential impact of industrialization. Thus, this paper argues that inequality is the essential impact of industrialization which has been emerged in various form of social …
Teori Kekuasaan Michel Foucault: Tantangan Bagi Sosiologi Politik, Abdil Mughis Mudhoffir
Teori Kekuasaan Michel Foucault: Tantangan Bagi Sosiologi Politik, Abdil Mughis Mudhoffir
Masyarakat: Jurnal Sosiologi
Power is often discussed in political discourse or in political sociology. In this context, power is understood as the attribution, capacity, or capital to achieve certain goals of the owners. Foucault does not reject this argument, but this perspective would not be able to expose the invisible subjugation. The more critical view of power appears in cultural studies. Gramsci’s concept of hegemony is often used to dismantle the cultural establishment in the process of domination that was veiled. The more sophisticated findings, power has surpassed even the hegemonic ways, which is factually or coined by Foucault as governmentality. This paper …
Problematika Anak Muda Di Panggung Kekuasaan, Redaksi Jurnal Masyarakat
Problematika Anak Muda Di Panggung Kekuasaan, Redaksi Jurnal Masyarakat
Masyarakat: Jurnal Sosiologi
No abstract provided.
Swaraj And Conscientização: An Essay On Gandhi And Freire’S Philosophy Of Critical Education, Diatyka Widya Permata Yasih
Swaraj And Conscientização: An Essay On Gandhi And Freire’S Philosophy Of Critical Education, Diatyka Widya Permata Yasih
Masyarakat: Jurnal Sosiologi
No abstract provided.
Working With Children Using Dance/Movement Therapy, Mariah M. Lefeber
Working With Children Using Dance/Movement Therapy, Mariah M. Lefeber
Faculty Publications - Graduate School of Counseling
Movement is a language. We all learned to relate on a nonverbal level before starting to communicate verbally. Thus, this nonverbal language of the body is especially powerful for children, who communicate, navigate relationships, and interact with their environment through movement. An early, healthy connection with their bodies enables children to develop a strong sense of self and dynamic sense of both their body image and physical boundaries. For all of these reasons, dance/ movement therapy is a highly effective modality for working with children. This chapter introduces the field of dance/movement therapy, specifically as it relates to working with …
Art Therapy With Children: Examining Three Different Populations And Identifying The Strengths And Weaknesses Of Art Therapy, Alyssa Barrios
Art Therapy With Children: Examining Three Different Populations And Identifying The Strengths And Weaknesses Of Art Therapy, Alyssa Barrios
Whittier Scholars Program
Literature review of art therapy research among three different populations of children: children with disabilities, attachment quality with children and their caregivers, and childhood offenders. This study inspects the methods, effectiveness, and the rationale for the use of art therapy within three various populations suggesting that the use of art therapy has benefits and efficiencies. The benefits refer to childhood offenders, who developed a better self-image and interaction skills, and children with attention deficit disorders, who learned to maintain their impulse control and collaborate with others. The inefficiencies refer to children with epilepsy, who did not display any change in …
Evaluating The Effects Of Common-Pool Resource Institutions And Market Forces On Species Richness And Forest Cover In Ecuadorian Indigenous Kichwa Communities, Johan A. Oldekop, Anthony J. Bebbington, Karl Hennermann, Julia Mcmorrow, David A. Springate, Bolier Torres, Nathan K. Truelove, Niklas Tysklind, Santiago Villamarín, Richard F. Preziosi
Evaluating The Effects Of Common-Pool Resource Institutions And Market Forces On Species Richness And Forest Cover In Ecuadorian Indigenous Kichwa Communities, Johan A. Oldekop, Anthony J. Bebbington, Karl Hennermann, Julia Mcmorrow, David A. Springate, Bolier Torres, Nathan K. Truelove, Niklas Tysklind, Santiago Villamarín, Richard F. Preziosi
Geography
We compare conservation outcomes between a protected area (PA) and four indigenous common-property regimes (CPRs) under differing degrees of market integration in the Ecuadorian Amazon. We first assess how market forces and common-pool resource institutions governing processes of forest conversion affect biodiversity and forest cover, and whether institutions mitigate the effect of market forces. We then analyze how biodiversity and forest cover differ between a PA, and communities with different market access. Finally, we link biodiversity and forest cover changes within communities to differences in land-use practices. While we show similar levels of forest cover and biodiversity between the PA …
The Nationalization Of Religion: Cultural Performances And The Youth Of Soka Singapore, Jayeel Cornelio
The Nationalization Of Religion: Cultural Performances And The Youth Of Soka Singapore, Jayeel Cornelio
Development Studies Faculty Publications
Soka is known in Singapore for its cultural performances in events such as the National Day Parade and Chingay. This is part of Soka’s attempts to present itself as a cultural organization working for peace and progress in Singapore. Participating in these performances is common among the youth of Soka. In this paper I focus on young people’s participation as a form of religious patriotism. For them, it is about sending a message that individual and collective struggles can be overcome and that peace and harmony can be fostered. I then analyze these nuances in terms of the nationalization of …