Development Studies Commons^™

Monetary Policy And Financing Real Sector Growth In Nigeria., Moses K. Tule

Bullion

The study examines CBN's real sector financing initiatives and implication for real sector growth and economic development. Section 2 discusses selected CBN real sector financing initiatives. Section 3 is the implications of the initiatives for growth and economic management. Section 4 discusses challenges of implementing the policies while section 5 concludes the paper and presents suggestions on the way forward.

How Micro Small And Medium Enterprises (Msmes) Can Leverage On Central Bank Of Nigeria's Real Sector Initiatives, Paul Nduka Eluhaiwe

Bullion

This paper seeks to explore how MSMES can leverage on financing interventions of the CBN with a view to enabling them grow their businesses, employ more Nigerians and contribute to GDP.

Short-Term Inflation Forecasting Models For Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa, Sarah O. Alade

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Short-term inflation forecasting is an essential component of the monetary policy projections at the Central Bank of Nigeria. This paper proposes four short-term headline inflation forecasting models using the SARIMA and SARIMAX processes and compares their performance using the pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2011 to September 2013. According to the results the best forecasting performance is demonstrated by the model based on the all items CPI estimated using the SARIMAX model. This model is, therefore, recommended for use in short-term forecasting of headline inflation in Nigeria. The forecasting performance up to eight months ahead, of the models based on …

An Efficient Two Sample Capture-Recapture Model With High Recaptures, Danjuma Jibasen, Yusuf J. Adams

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper proposed an efficient two sample capture-recapture model (Ma) with high recaptures and compared it with the existing models like the model of no factor effect (Mo), behavioral response model (Mb) and the Petersen model (Ms), using simulated data. We found that the Petersen model provides a better estimate of the population size when the observations follow a hypergeometric distribution and the population is overestimated when recapture is high. It was also found that the proposed model provides a better estimator of the population size than the existing ones when the recapture is high. This model is particularly useful …

Causal Relationship Between Stock Market Index And Exchange Rate: Evidence From Nigeria, Abdulrasheed Zubair

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper uses Johansen’s cointegration to test for the possibility of cointegration and Granger-causality to estimate the causal relationship between stock market index and monetary indicators (exchange rate and M2) before and during the global financial crisis for Nigeria, using monthly data for the period 2001–2011. Results suggest absence of long-run relationship before and during the crisis. The Granger-causality tests show a uni-directional causality running from M2 to ASI before the crisis while during the period of the crisis there is absence of causality between the variables. This suggests that ASI show responsiveness to M2. Thus, absence of the direct …

Investigating Chaos In The Nigerian Asset And Resource Management (Arm) Discovery Fund, Ibiyinka A. Fuwape, Samuel T. Ogunjo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates chaos in a Nigerian mutual fund, Asset and Resource Management Company Limited (ARM) for a period of eleven years. The existence of chaotic signals in the data was identified by the reconstruction of the phase space of the daily closing price of the fund and the delay time was quantified using mutual information function and the embedding dimension by the false nearest neighbours, where the values were identified to be 15 and 20 respectively. The presence of chaotic signals in the ARM data was further confirmed by the correlation dimension method which yielded a dimension of 2.2 …

Modeling The Nigerian Inflation Rates Using Periodogram And Fourier Series Analysis, Chukwuemeka O. Omekara,, Emmanuel J. Ekpenyong, Micheal P. Ekerete

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This work considers the application of Periodogram and Fourier Series Analysis to model all-items monthly inflation rates in Nigeria from 2003 to 2011. The main objectives are to identify inflation cycles, fit a suitable model to the data and make forecasts of future values. To achieve these objectives, monthly all-items inflation rates for the period were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) website. Periodogram and Fourier series methods of analysis are used to analyze the data. Based on the analysis, it was found that inflation cycle within the period was fifty one (51) months, which coincides with the …

Nigerian Stock Index: A Search For Optimal Garch Model Using High Frequency Data, Olaoluwa Simon Yaya

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper attempts to fit the best Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model for All Share Index (ASI) of Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) returns. A search is made on various GARCH variants specified on the assumptions of stationarity and asymmetry. Fractionally integrated types are also considered to capture the possibility of return series having property of long range dependency. The parameter estimations are carried out on the assumptions of normality and non-normality of GARCH innovations, with models and forecasts evaluated using information criteria and loss functions respectively. Under normality assumption, Hyperbolic GARCH (HYGARCH(1,d,1)) model is selected and Integrated GARCH (IGARCH(1,1)) …

Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria External Reserves, Iheanyichukwu S. Iwueze, Eleazar C. Nwogu, Valentine U. Nlebedim

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper discusses the levels and trend of external reserves in Nigeria. The relevance of this lies in the fact that it could help to monitor the reserves and throw early warning signal about any economic crisis. Monthly data on Nigeria external reserves for the period January 1999 to December, 2008 derived from the 2008 CBN Statistical Bulletin was analyzed using ARIMA model. Results of the analyses show that (i) the data requires logarithmic transformation to stabilize the variance and make the distribution normal (ii) the appropriate model that best describes the pattern in the transformed data is the Autoregressive- …

A Markov Decision Process Approach To Optimal Control Of A Multi-Level Hierarchical Manpower System, Akaninyene U. Udom

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

A recurrent problem in manpower control is how to attain the desired structural configuration in an optimal way, since it is possible to reach a desired structural configuration using different control inputs. The major aim of this paper is to develop a Markov Decision Process for optimal control of a Multi-level Hierarchical Manpower System (MHMS) by promotion and interdepartmental transfers. This is examined under control by intervention and contraction cost Markov Decision Process.

Contributions Of Financial Sector Reforms And Credit Supply To Nigerian Agricultural Sector (1978-2009), Anthony O. Onoja, M. E. Onu, S. Ajodo-Ohiemi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study analyzed the trends and pattern of institutional credit supply to agriculture during pre- and post-financial reforms along with their determinants. It then compared the effects of reform policies on access to institutional credits in Nigerian agricultural sector before and after the reforms (1978 - 1985; and 1986 -2009). Relying mainly on time series data from CBN and NBS, it used ordinary least squares method (linear, semi-log and double log) to model the determinants of banking sector lending to the agricultural sector during the review period. The models were subjected to several econometric tests before accepting one. Chow test …

Determinants Of Foreign Reserves In Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach, David Irefin, Baba N. Yaaba

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

On global scale, central banks’ holdings of foreign reserves have escalated sharply in recent years. World international reserves holdings have risen significantly from US$1.2 trillion in 1995 to nearly US$10.0 trillion in June 2011. Dominant among these reserves are concentrated in the hands of few countries. Ten major holders of foreign reserves are mostly from Asia. Oil exporting countries in Africa and the Middle East are not left out in this trend. Nigeria’s foreign reserves rose from US$5.5 billion in 1999 to US$62.40 billion in July 2008, making Nigeria the twenty-fourth largest reserves holder in the world. This pace of …

Effects Of Exchange Rate Movements On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Eme O. Akpan, Johnson A. Atan

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the effect of exchange rate movements on real output growth in Nigeria. Based on quarterly series for the period 1986 to 2010, the paper examines the possible direct and indirect relationship between exchange rates and GDP growth. The relationship is derived in two ways using a simultaneous equations model within a fully specified (but small) macroeconomic model. A Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) technique was explored. The estimation results suggest that there is no evidence of a strong direct relationship between changes in exchange rate and output growth. Rather, Nigeria’s economic growth has been directly affected by …

Exchange Rate Volatility In Nigeria: Consistency, Persistency & Severity Analyses, Babatunde Adeoye, Akinwande A. Atanda

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The adoption of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986 resulted in the transition from fixed exchange rate regime to floating exchange rate regime in Nigeria. Ever since, the exchange rate of naira vis-à-vis the U.S dollar has attained varying rates all through different time horizons. On this basis, this study examines the consistency, persistency, and severity (degree) of volatility in exchange rate of Nigerian currency (naira) vis-a-vis the United State dollar using monthly time series data from 1986 to 2008. The standard Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) model was used to analyze the long-run consistency of …

Foreign Private Investment And Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Cointegrated Var And Granger Causality Analysis, F. Z. Abdullahi, S. Ladan, Haruna R. Bakari

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This research uses a cointegration VAR model to study the contemporaneous long-run dynamics of the impact of Foreign Private Investment (FPI), Interest Rate (INR) and Inflation rate (IFR) on Growth Domestic Products (GDP) in Nigeria for the period January 1970 to December 2009. The Unit Root Test suggests that all the variables are integrated of order 1. The VAR model was appropriately identified using AIC information criteria and the VECM model has exactly one cointegration relation. The study further investigates the causal relationship using the Granger causality analysis of VECM which indicates a uni-directional causality relationship between GDP and FDI …

Banking Sector Credit And Economic Growth In Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation, Aniekan O. Akpansung, Sikiru J. Babalola

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The paper examines the relationship between banking sector credit and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1970-2008. The causal links between the pairs of variables of interest were established using Granger causality test while a Two-Stage Least Squares (TSLS) estimation technique was used for the regression models. The results of Granger causality test show evidence of unidirectional causal relationship from GDP to private sector credit (PSC) and from industrial production index (IND) to GDP. Estimated regression models indicate that private sector credit impacts positively on economic growth over the period of coverage in this study. However, lending (interest) rate …

Neither The Washington Nor Beijing Consensus: Developmental Models To Fit African Realities And Cultures, Sanusi L. Sanusi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

No abstract provided.

Banking Reform And Its Impact On The Nigerian Economy, Sanusi L. Sanusi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

No abstract provided.

Effects Of Poverty On Risk Attitudes Of Farmers In Benue State Nigeria, G. C. Aye, O. Oji

Economic and Financial Review

The Nigerian agriculture is characterised by low productivity low fam incomes and low levels of

technological adoption and we inefficient production technique. This poor state of Nigerian agriculture is related to farmers' attitude towards risk in the adoption of production techniques, as well as risk in the production and socioeconomic environment, this study therefore sought to specifically to: determine the extent of poverty among farmers in the area; assess the risk attitude of the farmers and determine the effect of poverty variables on risk attitude of farmers. A multi-stage random sampling technique was used for selection of respondent. Data were …

The Role Of Development Finance Institutions (Dfis) In The Financing Of Small-Scale Industries (Ssis)., O. E. Essien

Bullion

The post-independence Nigerian government adopted the import-substitution large-scale industrialisation strategy to accelerate the country's industrial development. Industrial output as well as industry's contribution to the gross domestic product (GDP) declined in the face of the strong national aspiration for the restructuring of the economy and reduction of the dependence on petroleum. Small and medium scale industries have since become the focus of national industrial policy. ln order to put our discussion into proper perspective, we need to know what we mean by SSls in the Nigerian context. The following are the current official definitions of industrial enterprises adopted by the …

A Profile Of The Nigerian Educational System And Policy Options For Improved Educational Development For Rapid Economic Growth And Development, M O. Ojo, O. Adesanya, A. Bamidele

CBN Occasional Papers

Attempts is made in this paper to situate Nigeria's educational system within the context of her overall economic development in view of the universal acceptance of the ultimate importance of human resources in determining the level and manner of economic progress. The various ways in which education contributes to the process of economic development are explored. A statistical review and appraisal of the Nigerian Educational system show that given its current level, the system is under-developed as reflected by an overall adult literacy ratio of 49.5% and primary school enrollment level of 63.5% of the primary school-age cohort as at …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, June 1991, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

The financial statistics section offers comprehensive data on various financial subsectors, including money and banking, financial markets, non-bank financial institutions, and public finance statistics. Key areas covered include data consolidation of commercial and merchant banks, liquidity ratios, cash reserves, loan/deposit ratios, and credit distribution. Clearing house statistics provide information on volume of transactions within the commercial banking system and the number and value of cheques cleared. Financial markets provide information on new issues, treasury securities, money market assets, Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) transactions, and government debt instruments. Public finance statistics include federal government revenue and expenditure, sources such as oil, …

A General Survey Of The Experiences Of Some Less-Developed Countries (Ldcs) Under The Structural Adjustment Programme (Sap), O. J. Nnanna

Economic and Financial Review

This paper is a review of the impact of Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) on the economies of ten less developed countries (LDCs). It analysed the performance of some selected macroeconomic variables both before and after SAP was adopted in the selected countries. Based on available data, the several and collective lesson of experience confirmed that the impact of SAP varied not only amongst countries, but also within the various sectors in the same economic entity. Overall, it may be concluded that the broad theoretical objective of SAP was achieved mainly on the external sectors of the countries surveyed, while it …

Common Currency For The West African Sub-Region: Prospects For Nigeria, N. E. Ogbe

Economic and Financial Review

An important element of the economic integration process in West Africa is the achievement of monetary co-operation which can take various forms such as the clearing house mechanism, European Monetary System Model, Parallel Union Currency Model and Common Currency Area. The paper traced the efforts by ECOW AS at evolving monetary co-operation and also analysed the prospects for Nigeria of a common currency in the West African sub-region. The paper identified and discussed the costs and benefits of a common currency to member nations, especially Nigeria. The costs include loss of autonomy by individual governments in major areas of monetary …

An Appraisal Of Public Sector Financing Of Agricultural Development In Africa With Particular Reference To Nigeria, J. O. Osakwe, M. O. Ojo

Economic and Financial Review

The paper discusses, largely using Nigeria as a case study, three sets of issues relating to public sector role in agricultural financing. First, it takes an overview of the agricultural situation in African countries in general and in Nigeria in particular in the last twenty years and suggests the critical factors that should guide government activities for agricultural financing in the light of the general structure of agricultural production. Second, it identifies the types and magnitudes of government assistance in agricultural financing in Nigeria and finally it discusses some of the main problems surrounding the efforts of the government in …

Special Drawing Rights And Their Implications For Domestic And External Finance, Central Bank Of Nigeria Cbn

Economic and Financial Review

The need to create the new international monetary asset called Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) arose largely from the widening gap between the volume of world trade and the means of financing it (that is, international monetary reserves). Special Drawing Rights are 'paper gold', transferable among the participating countries who are committed to accept them in exchange for convertible currencies.