Agricultural and Resource Economics Commons^™

Crop Yield Shocks And Conflict In Sub-Saharan Africa: Subnational Evidence From Satellite-Based Yield Predictions, Benson I. Adomako

Master's Theses

This paper examines whether crop yields affect violent conflict at the subnational level across seven Sub-Saharan African countries: Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Mali, Malawi, Niger, Nigeria, and Tanzania, over the period 2010 to 2024. A central identification challenge is that observed yields are endogenous to conflict: armed violence disrupts planting, cultivation, and harvest. To address this, I train a machine learning model on observed maize yield and satellite and environmental features to generate predicted yields for 1,338 second-level administrative districts annually. These predictions serve as the key regressor in a two-way fixed-effects panel with district and year fixed effects. I find …

Spatial Analysis Of Maize Yields And Household Dietary Diversity In Sub-Saharan Africa: Causal Evidence From A Machine Learning Instrument, Addi Joof

Master's Theses

MAIZE YIELDS AND HOUSEHOLD DIETARY DIVERSITY IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: EVIDENCE ON THE CAUSAL EFFECT FROM A MACHINE LEARNING INSTRUMENT

Addi Joof, University of San Francisco, May 2026

This paper provides estimates of the effect of maize yield on household dietary diversity across seven Sub-Saharan African countries, using data from 36,474 maize-growing households in the Living Standards Measurement Study Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) panels for the period 2008--2021. OLS estimates which include district and country-by-wave fixed effects yield a positive and significant coefficient of 0.070 (SE = 0.006, p < 0.001), implying that a 10 percent increase in maize yield raises the Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS) by approximately 0.007 food groups. Because self-reported yields are subject to classical measurement error and unobserved household characteristics confound the OLS estimate, we construct an instrumental variable using a Random Forest model trained on satellite-derived agro-environmental features including the Enhanced Vegetation Index, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Growing Degree Days, precipitation, and soil moisture obtained from Google Earth Engine at the GPS-coordinate-by-year level. Our preferred 2SLS specification, which adds region fixed effects to absorb persistent sub-national geographic variation, returns a positive point estimate of 0.217 (SE = 0.206; 95% CI: -0.19 to +0.63, p = 0.294) larger than OLS and consistent with downward attenuation bias, but imprecisely estimated and statistically indistinguishable from zero at conventional levels. We interpret the OLS estimate of 0.070 as a credible lower bound on the true effect, with the IV evidence pointing to a moderately larger but uncertain magnitude. Heterogeneity analysis reveals a declining gradient across consumption quintiles the effect is strongest among the poorest households (Q1: 0.055, p < 0.01) and diminishes with wealth (Q5: 0.015, not significant) while showing no gradient across market-integration levels. These patterns are consistent with own-consumption, rather than market income from surplus sales, as the primary pathway from yield to dietary diversity. OLS estimates are positive and significant in five of six estimable countries. The findings suggest that maize yield improvements can serve as a nutrition co-investment, particularly for subsistence-oriented smallholders, though the available data do not permit a sharp causal quantification of the effect size.

Keywords: dietary diversity, maize yields, instrumental variables, Sub-Saharan Africa, LSMS-ISA, satellite …

Mitigating Agricultural Income Volatility: Evidence From Crop Insurance Adoption In India, Annoushqa Bobde

Master's Theses

Income volatility resulting from crop loss presents a significant threat to rural livelihoods in India, where nearly half of the workforce is employed in agriculture. This study examines the causal impact of crop insurance uptake on farm income using nationally representative data from the 70th and 77th rounds of the National Sample Survey, merged with satellite-derived climate data and Harmful Degree Days (HDD), which is used as a proxy for crop-damaging temperature. To address selection bias in insurance enrollment, Propensity Score Matching, Inverse Propensity Weighting, and a Two-Way Fixed Effects model are used. Results show that insurance uptake is associated …

Climate Shocks, Crop Yields, And School Enrollment In Rural Ethiopia, Mallika Matharu

Master's Theses

This study investigates how climate-induced shocks to agricultural productivity affect school enrollment in rural Ethiopia. Using five waves of panel data from the Ethiopia Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) and satellite-derived weather indicators, I estimate the causal effects of crop yields, specifically Teff, Sorghum, and Maize, on children’s school attendance. To address the endogeneity of agricultural output, I instrument crop yields with agro-climatic measures such as growing degree days (GDD), harmful degree days (HDD), and soil moisture during the Meher growing season. The main empirical strategy uses a two-stage instrumental variable approach with region and wave fixed effects. Results suggest …

Wine-Rs Or Losers: Assessing Socio-Economic Impacts Of Eu Regulations On Climate-Exacerbated Plant Diseases And Pests Within Northern Italian Viticulture, Kyley N. Fishman

Undergraduate Honors Theses

As climate change furthers weather events and unprecedented hot and wet seasons, European farmers are amongst those challenged by these threats. Balancing sustainable and traditional practices while maintaining socio-economic stability can be difficult, especially under European Union (EU) agricultural regulations. A key area of concern for some agro-regulations is viticulture, or grape growing, which is amongst the most climate-sensitive agricultural sectors. These agro-regulations address multiple goals, including sustainability, exports, and cultural heritage protection. Yet, to what extent EU climate-driven agricultural regulations influence regional wine-growing operations’ socio-economics remains unclear, particularly in managing climate-aggravated pests and plant diseases. My thesis aims to …

Exploring The Impact Of Weekly Farmers’ Market In The City Of Carson, Ca In Promoting Equitable Access To Locally Grown Fruits And Vegetables, Daisy Lopez Valdez M.P.H.

Master's Projects and Capstones

Despite their many benefits to the community, farmers’ markets suffer from several important limitations. This paper will provide guidance on practices and interventions that can improve the effectiveness of the local Carson, California farmers’ market, known as the South Bay Pavilion Farmer’s Market, in increasing equitable access to and consumption of locally grown fruits and vegetables with the goal of reducing obesity and diabetes rates among residents.

The needs and assets assessment developed will evaluate the success of the City of Carson South Bay Pavilion Farmers’ Market and provide recommendations based on the findings. The proposed research will follow an …

Exploring The Relationship Between Load Shedding And Crime In Gauteng, Bhavesh Ram

Master's Theses

This study investigates the impact of load shedding, a recurring power outage phenomenon in South Africa, on crime rates in the densely populated Gauteng province. Using a novel dataset that combines Eskom's load shedding schedules with detailed crime statistics from 2015 to 2022, a fixed-effects regression model is employed to examine the relationship between blackout hours and various crime categories. Findings reveal that while load shedding does not significantly affect overall crime rates, it significantly increases the incidence of contact crimes and sexual offenses, particularly during daylight hours. Additionally, our results provide evidence that load shedding diminishes the ability of …

Impact Of Temperature On Children’S Nutrition: A Comparative Study Of Three Ecological Regions Of Nepal, Prakriti Shakya

Master's Theses

Nutrition obtained during the growth period of childhood significantly influences long-term well-being and overall productivity, ultimately contributing to the economy of a society. However, weather shocks can wreak havoc by damaging crops, changing yields of important crops and disrupting market access, which directly impacts the food intake of both adults and children. When these adverse events occur during childhood, short term and long term inadequacy in nutrition as well as disease incidence can cause malnutrition leading to stunted growth and cognitive impairment that may persist into adulthood, affecting the labor market and increasing health expenditure. To address this issue, we …

The Impact Of Index Based Livestock Insurance (Ibli) On Child Nutrition In Marsabit County, Kenya, Jackson Kadyampakeni

Master's Theses

The study uses six rounds of Index-Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI) panel surveys (2009 – 2015) for Northern Kenya’s Marsabit county to investigate the impact of IBLI on child nutrition and household food security. We employ Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Instrumental Variable (IV) regressions to account for potential endogeneity in IBLI uptake. The results indicate that while IBLI uptake significantly improves the intake of key nutrients such as Vitamin A, protein, iron, and fruits and vegetables, it does not translate into significant improvements in child nutrition status, as measured by Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) z-scores. Significant negative effects of age …

Beyond The Plate: Leisure Studies As A Recipe For Food Justice, Julia M. Montano

Undergraduate Honors Theses

To address the issues that have been derived from the dominant forces in our food systems, movements such as food justice strive to find solutions through decolonization and addressing barriers to accessing healthy, affordable and culturally representative food. One group of individuals that are heavily involved in, and impacted by, food justice are college students. This study seeks to explore the extent to which college students’ involvement in food justice is shaped by their free time. With this research, I strive to bring in the voices of college students, while also bridging a gap in the field by bringing leisure …

Climate & Conflict: View Into A Warming World, Faelynn Carroll

Master's Theses

Unlike weather patterns, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a large-scale, cyclical climate system that is now predictable for up to a year and a half in advance. ENSO cycles occur every two to seven years for approximately two years at a time, affecting large swaths of the globe with plausibly random variation in the exact location and strength of local effects. However, its systemic nature allows for aggregate effects to be accounted for by its outcomes. This research uses novel 0.5 x 0.5 degree ENSO teleconnection analysis for precipitation and temperature to uncover environmental mechanisms that underly the …

Improving The Land Trust Model’S Impact On Environmental Conservation In Northern California, Peter Talbot

Master's Projects and Capstones

For years, the land trust sector of California and much of the United States has operated with a dollars and acres mentality that has prioritized fundraising as a result of acreage protected. Within California, nearly 5.8 million acres of land have been protected by 132 land trusts throughout the state. To accommodate for the diverse cross-section of land and the many needs of the population, land trusts take on numerous shapes and sizes. A unique aspect of this diversity is the rich agricultural and natural spaces found throughout the state. This mix of land and variety of land uses has …

Agricultural Shocks On Household Stability: A Case Study Of Tanzania Maize Farmers, Zimmi Silonda Ndlovu

Master's Theses

As the global populations grow, the need for stronger agricultural resilience in areas with high food insecurity like Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is a must. Crop failure due to climate related events has increased substantially over the past decade, raising the risks to vulnerable groups like subsistence farmers. Understanding the effects of climate variability on farmers and their crops is a pivotal step towards increasing resilience and productivity. In this paper I approach this question using a Linear Probability Fixed-effects Model on Tanzanian Panel Survey data with monthly temperature and precipitation for years 2008 to 2013. Results suggest a negative relationship …

Understanding The Drivers Of Meat Consumption In Norway: An Exploration Of Environmental And Sociocultural Factors, Paul Wilhite

Master's Theses

This thesis focuses on meat consumption in Norway and issues needed to be addressed if it is to be reduced. This thesis aims to explore the sociocultural and environmental factors influencing meat consumption in Norway, a country known for its high per capita consumption of meat. By examining the historical, cultural, and economic contexts of meat consumption in Norway as well as the environmental impacts and ethical considerations associated with meat production and consumption, this thesis seeks to provide a nuanced understanding of the drivers of meat consumption in Norway. Following a brief outline of how these issues are to …

Charcoal, Droughts, And Deforestation: Evidence From Mozambique, Kaitlin N. Paull

Master's Theses

Mozambique is prone to harsh weather conditions due to its geographic location, and these conditions are expected to worsen in the face of ongoing climate change. Many of Mozambique’s farmers rely on rain-fed agriculture, meaning their livelihoods are highly vulnerable to worsening weather trends. Some farmers have diversified their incomes with charcoal production, making use of Mozambique’s abundant forest resources. This study measures how reliance on charcoal as an income diversification strategy affects forest loss, and found inconclusive effects of rainfall on deforestation. However, the study does find that a one-unit increase in hot degree days increases the probability of …

Sweet And Timely Insurance: The Role Of Honey In Reducing Coffee Producer Food Insecurity Exposure In Mexico, Grant Xavier Storer

Master's Theses

Smallholder coffee producers face a combination of pre- and post-harvest risk factors that leaves them particularly vulnerable to food insecurity. A popular form of on-farm diversification is honey production through beekeeping, that has both nutritional and commercial value. This study investigates the role of honey production as means of food security management due to the heightened pollinating activity during the coffee flowering stage that follows the annual coffee harvest provides an additional non-contemporaneous source of income. Using primary data collected in coffee-producing regions of Chiapas, Mexico, I find that during the honey harvest months, which occurs during the early stage …

Agricultural Shocks On Household Stability: A Case Study Of Tanzania Maize Farmers, Zimmi Ndlovu

Master's Theses

As the global populations grow, the need for stronger agricultural resilience in areas with high food insecurity like Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is a must. Crop failure due to climate related events has increased substantially over the past decade, raising the risks to vulnerable groups like subsistence farmers. Understanding the effects of climate variability on farmers and their crops is a pivotal step towards increasing resilience and productivity. In this paper I approach this question using a Linear Probability Fixed-effects Model on Tanzanian Panel Survey data with monthly temperature and precipitation for years 2008 to 2013. Results suggest a negative relationship …

Evolving Deforestation Narratives In Practice: A Study Of The Un-Redd+ Readiness Programme In Nigeria, Stuart Clive Blackwell

Master's Theses

The UN-REDD+ Readiness Programme was conducted between 2009 and 2015. The REDD+ Programme in Nigeria began once the readiness program was completed. This study conducts a document analysis of the program utilizing a political ecology lens to determine the extent to which the program adheres to or strays away from critical narratives surrounding both drivers of deforestation and inclusion and autonomy of federal, state, and local communities. By examining the entirety of the available documentation of the REDD+ Readiness program in Nigeria using a political ecological lens, this study demonstrates both an evolution of the program itself, and an evolution …

Inaccessible Interpolated Imagery: How Coffee Farmers In The State Of Chiapas Might Access Political Economic Opportunity Through Representation, Paolo Fiann Bicchieri

Master's Theses

Here is a useful parable to boil down the idea of this project and set the tone: when one goes to the bar to tell a story about a fight at the bar, they would never venture to place themselves as the hero of the brawl, taking out three drunkards in a single punch, unless they were really in the bar, at that time, fighting a good fight. One would never do this as the bartender, locals, and regulars would all know if this were the case or not. Yet transnational corporations, governments, and even consumers do this all the …

The Role Of Learning Styles In The Uptake Of Index Insurance: Evidence From Kenya, Yibekal Abebe Tessema, Andrew Hobbs, Nathaniel Jensen

Master's Theses

Index insurance has a huge potential to increase the income of households in developing countries by shielding them against various shocks and by facilitating technology adoption. Despite this theoretical promise, however, the uptake of insurance has turned out to be disappointingly low. One of the key barriers in the adoption of this financial technology has been learning difficulty. Index insurance can be considered a relatively complex product especially in the context of low financial literacy in developing countries. Despite the relevance of learning in the diffusion of the product, however, previous studies on the subject have been quite limited. This …

Towards A Bioeconomy In The Southern Cone?:Analysis Of Official Bioeconomic Approaches In Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay And Uruguay, Marisa Mathó

Undergraduate Honors Theses

Every aspect of our world is impacted by climate change – our food, water, infrastructure and security systems. Bioeconomy and the biobased economy have emerged as two types of models with the potential to transform industries away from extractive practices without losing economic activity. By pivoting decisively to embrace sustainable bioeconomic and biobased economic strategies nations can contribute to their long term development, and make a real difference in the fight against climate change. This study seeks to analyze national bioeconomic policy documents to better understand the orientation, status and level of bioeconomic policy discourse in the founding MERCOSUR countries …

Estimating Treatment Effect Heterogeneity In A Comprehensive Microenterprise Intervention, Mary Gathungu

Master's Theses

Do cash transfer programs have heterogeneous treatment effects within the treatment group? Why do some households in these interventions seem to benefit more than others? What is the overall treatment effect of the Microenterprise Intervention? I address these questions through the study of a comprehensive microenterprise intervention program carried out in Kenya, Africa by a non-profit organization called the Village Enterprise Organization and I obtain economic outcome data from a randomized control trial that gives out conditional cash transfer that is conditional on business formation. The Microenterprise Intervention combines cash grants and mentorship and training to achieve long term economic …

Measuring Cocoa Agricultural Productivity: A Spatio-Temporal Econometric Approach, Yurlady Chaverra-Palacios

Master's Theses

A significant increase of 50.5 percent in the national production of cocoa was registered between 2011 and 2015 in Colombia. Nevertheless, 5,890 tons were imported in 2015 to supply domestic demand. Unlike other crops, the production of cocoa has made a significant contribution to the income of approximately 38,000 families of which 90 percent are small farm-producers with very little capital. Facilitating credit for investment is one of the main strategies of the national government to increase cocoa productivity. Correspondingly, the impact of the credit for investment on the cocoa agricultural productivity and if those investments have a spillover effect …

Boosting Demand For Biofortified Foods: The Case Of Orange Fleshed Sweet Potato Bread In Tamale, Ghana, Tchassanty Ouro-Gbeleou

Master's Theses

Abstract: In the context of introducing biofortification of staple crops as a food-based approach to combat micronutrient malnutrition in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA), we carried out a survey in Tamale, Ghana to elicit consumers’ preference of and willingness to pay for one of the highly nutritious biofortified staple crop processed product: the Orange Fleshed Sweet Potato (OFSP) bread. Our results indicate that scores of respondents in the sample show preference for OFSP bread. The most important determinants of OFSP bread preference are its sweet taste and soft texture and consumers are willing to pay 0.634 pesewas more for the attribute …

An Economic Valuation Of Biodiversity: Measuring Willingness-To-Pay For Quinoa Conservation In Peru, Craig Scott

Master's Theses

Peru is facing increasing homogenization of traditional crops as a result of international market pressures. Destruction of the genetic resource base creates vulnerability to disease, climate, and pest shocks which threaten food security and the economic future of Peru’s agricultural sector. This paper aims to determine whether informational priming on the non-market value of national identity is sufficient to change the willingness to pay for agro biodiversity programs among the Peruvian general population in both urban and rural areas. A choice set willingness to pay experiment combined with choice rankings and randomized priming measures how much individuals are willing to …

Do Climate Shocks Affect Smallholder Farmers’ Conservation Practices? Evidence From Peru, Heleene Tambet

Master's Theses

Peruvian agriculture is estimated to be subject to the greatest impacts of climate change in South America. Resulting shifts in rainfall patterns and extreme temperature realizations impose more frequent abnormal weather shocks on farmers and their production decisions. I study the impact of such shocks on agricultural practice choices of farmers growing two main staples, maize and potato; namely, I analyze adoption of practices reducing soil degradation, practices aimed towards water conservation, and application of inorganic fertilizer. I utilize unique cross-sectional data from Peru National Agricultural Survey over the years 2014 to 2016 in conjunction with long-term climate data, and …

Is Oil Nationalization For The Nation? The Causal Nature Of Institutional Impacts And Economic Hindrances Of The “Resource Curse”, Imani Sherrill

Creative Activity and Research Day - CARD

This thesis examines the theory of the “oil resource curse” and how structural, demographic, and economic variables presented by previous scholars and academics do not fully unpack the narrative and mechanisms of how the “resource curse” is developed. Different oil wealthy nations around the world have varying levels of development. Why? Adding to the existing literature of the Resource curse and Institutions, my hypothesis remains that through institutions that history has developed, mechanisms, such as oil nationalization lead to different varieties of the economic resource curse. Using a most-difference case scenario in a historical analysis, statistical and empirical data will …

Attracting Beneficial Insects To Your Farm: A Comparison Of Habitat Modification Strategies, Kelly Rourke

Master's Projects and Capstones

Thoughtful planning to enhance diversity in agricultural landscapes can present a multitude of ecological, cultural and economic benefits. Land managers have many options when considering which habitat modification techniques they can implement on their agri-environment schemes. This comparative analysis of 47 peer reviewed journal articles assesses which landscape enhancements are most effective in attracting beneficial insects, namely pollinators and natural enemies to pests. Through biological control, natural invertebrate predators inhibit vegetative pests that can be detrimental to croplands. The promotion of natural enemies can decrease the need for chemical use and maintenance on farms. Pollinators contribute tremendous benefits to crop …

Agricultural Technology Adoption And Adaptation Under Climate Change: Microevidence From Niger, Berenger Djoumessi Tiague

Master's Theses

Many regions of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are experiencing fast increases in human population pressure and urbanization. By 2050, feeding a planet of 9 billion people will require an estimated 50 percent increase in agricultural production. Farmers in in the Sahel are exposed to a highly variable weather over time, and to their limited adaptive capacity, therefore often use livestock as income generator, export earnings, and as insurance against weather risk. There is an increasing demand for livestock products, which increase pressure on crop residues use on the land. In this study, I use panel socio-economic data combined with village rainfall …

Financial Sector Development And Agricultural Productivity, John J. Onoja

Master's Theses

Global concern is rising about the performance of the agricultural sector in view of its integral role in poverty alleviation, economic development and meeting an ever-increasing nutritional demand. At the epicenter of the concern is declining productivity due to poor financial inclusion of the sector leading to low investment and returns to agriculture. A cursory examination of the existing literature on the subject reveals quite varied dimensions to the analysis of agriculture productivity-financial development nexus. Focusing on the role of financial sector development as a catalyst to agricultural productivity, we employ panel data and advances fixed-effects econometrics approach to empirically …