Agricultural and Resource Economics Commons^™

Stock Market Volatility In The United Kingdom: Simulating Post-Covid-19 Recovery, Bala A. Dahiru, Mohammed Shuaibu, Najibullah Hassanov

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates the time it would take for the FTSE-100 index to reach its post-COVID-19 peak. The paper utilises an exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model that accounts for leverage effect and asymmetries. The preferred models amongst competing variants was the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA)-EGARCH(2,1) specification and was used to predict daily FTSE-100 data from 5th January 2000 to 21st June 2024. The empirical exercise showed that the COVID-19-induced financial crisis negatively affected the United Kingdom’s stock market performance. The results show that the FTSE100 index could reach its post-pandemic peak around 27th August, 2024 (two months after …

Modelling The Naira Exchange Rate Dependence Using Static And Time-Varying Copula, Kabir Katata

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines the dependence structure of different currencies versus the Nigerian Naira using constant and time-varying copula. Daily Naira/USD, Naira/Yuan, Naira/Pound, and Naira/Euro exchange rates from 23 December 2011 to 12 May 2020 were utilised. We fitted eight constant and time-varying copula families using the exchange rate standardised residuals. The study finds that the Naira exchange rate may be estimated with student t-copula, Symmetrized Joe-Clayton (SJC), or Rotated Gumbel copula models and Autoregressive (AR)– Glosten Jagannathan RunkleGeneralized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GJR-GARCH) (1,1) models with skewed t residuals for margins. The Naira exchange rate returns is timevarying, tail-dependent, and asymmetric. …

Impact Of Central Bank Of Nigeria Interventions To Agriculture: Evidence From Anchor Borrowers Programme, Sani A. Oshishepo

Bullion

In an effort to boost agricultural production and non -oil export in the face of unpredictable crude oil earnings and it resultant effect on the revenue profile of Nigeria, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in line with its developmental function, established the Anchor Borrowers Programme. This paper assesses, the impact, state participation and season positions from inception of the programme. Destock review and indebt interview as well data generated were employed to assess the impact of the programme, Issues surrounding, the distribution model, risks mitigation and challenges of the scheme were also examined. The paper concluded that there is …

Food Price And Inflation Adjustments In Nigeria: Evidence From Threshold Cointegration, Usman A. Bello, Aliyu R. Sanusi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates two stages of transmission through which inflation stabilization policy affects headline inflation by estimating a threshold cointegration model. The paper finds that asymmetric monetary shocks passing-through food prices exerts inflationary pressure on consumer prices, and is characterized by deep asymmetric movement, large degree of stickiness in adjusting downward, while exhibiting upward momentum in correcting food price fall. In addition, asymmetries were found in consumer price adjustment as food price shock transmits substantial inflationary pressure to consumer prices, while disinflationary effect originating from a fall in food price is inconsequential. The coefficients of adjustment were found to be …

Modelling The Impact Of Government Expenditure On Economic Growth In Nigeria: The Moderating Effects Of Oil And Non-Oil Revenue, Victor U. Ijirshar, Gaius M. Asombo, Florence D. Bundepuun, Ashifa Tersugh, Ayila Ngutsav

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth and assesses the moderating effects of oil revenue and non-oil revenue in Nigeria from 1981 to 2021. The study uncovered short-term asymmetry in the government expenditure-economic growth nexus while the long-term relationship was symmetric. The study found that government expenditure is a significant determinant of economic growth in Nigeria and that oil and non-oil revenue influences the nexus between government expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria positively. The study recommends efficient management of oil revenue, directing investments during high revenue periods and ensuring fiscal sustainability. Government should also establish …

Improving The Efficiency Of Exponential Ratio-Type Estimator For Population Median: A Calibration Weight Adjustment Approach, Mathew J. Iseh, Kufre J. Bassey

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper modifies the Bahl and Tuteja exponential ratio-type estimator for population median under simple random and stratified sampling schemes using calibration weight adjustment technique with supplementary information to vary the stratum weights. The bias and mean square error of the modified estimator were obtained up to the second-order approximation, which satisfies the necessary conditions for efficiency. The findings show that the new estimator surpasses existing estimators in efficiency gain. This suggests the appropriateness of calibration weight modification in boosting the efficiency of a population parameter estimator under stratified random sampling especially where the population parameter of the auxiliary variable …

Savings-Investment Gap In Sub-Saharan Africa: Does The Interaction Of Financial Sector Development And Migrant Remittances Matter?, Wasiu Adekunle, Oluwatosin Adeniyi, Joshua Afolabi, Musibau Babatunde, Edward Omiwale

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study analyses the interactive effects of migrant remittances and financial development on savings-investment gap for a panel of 18 Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries from 1990-2017. Results from a panel ARDL model show that migrant remittances reduce savings-investment gap in the long run. The gap is further reduced when the individual effect of financial development, and the interactive effects of migrant remittances and financial development are taken into consideration. Further analysis reveals evidence of widening effects of rising real GDP growth and bank deposits over a long-term horizon, while higher private sector credit widened the savings-investment gap only in the …

Effect Of Monetary Policy Rate On Market Interest Rates In Nigeria: A Threshold And Nardl Approach, Oluwafemi E. Awopegba, Joseph O. Afolabi, Lydia T. Adeoye, Godwin O. Akpokodje

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the effect of monetary policy rate (MPR) on market interest rates in Nigeria. For parsimony, we develop two indexes called the short-term interest rate (SINT) and Lending interest rate (LINT) to represent deposit and lending rates respectively. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) and threshold regression models are adopted. The study uses monthly data from 2002:M1 to 2019:M12. The results of the threshold regression model indicate that the degree of the effect of MPR on SINT and LINT above the estimated threshold of 11 and 13 percent respectively is greater and significant than if MPR were to …

Social Dimension Of Inclusive Growth In Ecowas: Implication For Poverty Reduction, Toriola K. Anu, Goerge O. Emmanuel, Ajayi O. Felix

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the implication of the social dimension of inclusive growth on poverty reduction in Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) countries. It specifically examines how social indices of inclusive growth comprising of income inequality, education, and health outcomes affect poverty reduction. The study uses a panel dataset of the six (6) lower-middle income countries in ECOWAS which was analysed via panel Difference Generalised Method of Moment (D-GMM). The results show that GDP per capita exerts significant negative effect on poverty while inequality, education and health outcomes do not show significant effect on poverty. Although, the estimates of …

Effect Of Fdi Inflows On Employment Generation In Selected Ecowas Countries: Heterogeneous Panel Analysis, Timothy A. Aderemi, Olawunmi Omitogun, Bukonla G. Osisanwo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The aim of this study is to examine the effect of FDI on employment in ECOWAS sub region between 1990 and 2019. The study utilizes a panel autoregressive distributed lag model to analyse the short run and long run relationship between FDI and employment across ECOWAS sub region. In the short run, the impact of FDI on employment is negative and statistically not significant. Meanwhile, in the long run FDI has a positive and statistically significant impact on employment rate. This implies that FDI has the capacity to generate employment in countries in ECOWAS sub region. Therefore, this study recommends …

Impact Of Covid-19 Pandemic On The Nigeria Stock Market: A Sectoral Stock Prices Analysis, Peter A. Adekunle, Yakubu A. Bello, Udochukwu G. Nwachukwu

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on sectoral stock prices in Nigeria stock market using daily data covering from February 28, 2020 to June 26, 2020. Applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test, the study finds that COVID-19 pandemic had adverse impact on the stock market indices in the short run. Furthermore, the study documents negative response of sectoral stock prices to the pandemic while the stock prices of the banking sub-sector are the worst hit. Compared to the consumer goods, and industrial subsector indices, the speed of adjustment to long run equilibrium is faster for …

Food Security, Economic Growth And Price Stability Nexus And Conceptual Issues, Park O. Idisi

Economic and Financial Review

A strong argument that encourages analysing food security and food price stability issues is importance to economic well-being. Nigeria is one of the most food insecure countries and highly affected by all three drivers. For one, the country is vulnerable to price instability and successively hit by environmental disasters, that impact people’s livelihoods. Furthermore, its economy is thriving, but around 48.0 per cent of its population lives below the poverty line (World Bank, 2020; World Poverty Clock, 2020). In addition to that, since 2009 northeastern Nigeria is struck by insurgency. Essentially, sustainability in economic growth is dependent on achievement of …

Keynote Address, Godwin I. Emefiele Con

Economic and Financial Review

The theme for this year’s edition, “Food Security in Nigeria: Options for Policy” is apt and in tune with the existing realities of both the global and domestic economies, which have suffered heavily from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, the theme could not have come at a better time than now when issues of insecurity, climate change, and COVID-19 related disruptions are challenging food production and supply, not only in Nigeria but also globally. As a matter of fact, food security is critical for national security, economic stability and sustainable development.

Special Remarks, Kingsley Obiora

Economic and Financial Review

The theme of this year’s Seminar, Food Security in Nigeria: Options for Policy, is apt, timely and consistent with the current efforts of this administration and the Bank in finding sustainable solutions to the food security challenges confronting us as a nation. As we all know, food is a basic need of every man and key to socio-economic stability. The ability of a country to feed its people, and perhaps extend the surplus to other countries, is one of the key indicators of good standing in the comity of nations. The World Food Summit (1996), defined food security as a …

Addressing Food Insecurity In Nigeria: Lessons From Jurisdictional Experiences, Biodun Adedipe

Economic and Financial Review

The challenge of food security transcends national or regional boundaries, and indeed became a global concern in 2015 when the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were set. Goal 2 targets zero hunger by 2030, and that is, to end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture. While the entire world is not in shortage of food, there are wide disparities in food sufficiency and food security across nations, regions and continents. The SDG No. 2 is a 5x1 matrix of five targets and three actions as summarised in Table 1. The targets are five critical elements of …

Averting The Looming Food Crisis: A Clarion Call To Immediate And Near-Term Policy Action, Kabir Ibrahim Mnia, Fnim, Acc

Economic and Financial Review

This paper seeks to advise on how to tackle the skyrocketing prices of food being experienced today all over the nation and to get the Government to take urgent and proactive actions to avert the pain being experienced by the entire Nigerian people.

Averting The Looming Food Crisis: A Clarion Call To Immediate And Near-Term Policy Action, Alwan A. Hassan

Economic and Financial Review

Nigeria suffers from food insecurity and poverty. It is estimated that the number of hungry people in Nigeria is over 53 million, which is about 25.0 per cent of the country’s total population of about 212 million. Also, about 43.0 per cent of Nigerians live below the poverty line. These statistics are worrisome, given that Nigeria, in the 1950s and 1960s, was not only self-sufficient in food production, but was also a net exporter of food to other regions of the continent (Ajayeoba, 2010). A nation is food secure when food is available and accessible in sufficient quantity and quality …

Welcome Address, Itohan M. Ogbomon-Paul

Economic and Financial Review

The theme of this year’s Seminar is tagged “Food Security in Nigeria: Options for policy”. The central focus of the Seminar is to discuss policy options for tackling the challenges of food insecurity, with the resultant outcomes on poverty reduction, job and wealth creation, as well as overall growth and development of the Nigerian economy. This year’s Seminar provides a unique opportunity for us all, because food holds the key to quality human existence. Indeed, food security is at the core of every nation’s development agenda. The quantity and quality of food available to the citizenry is correlated with the …

A Review Of Federal Government Support Policies And Programmes For Food Security: A Farmers Perspective, Muhammad A, Liman

Economic and Financial Review

To properly address the above topic, we need to examine how the farming community evolved over the years in Nigeria. We equally need to understand the impact of the support policies and programmes of the Federal Government, analyse them, identify which aspects of these policies and programmes require review, and then offer a way forward. We need to examine and define some terms and raise questions that will form the basis of our presentation. These include: Who is a farmer? What is food security? What are the current Federal Government support policies and programmes? How have these policies and programmes …

Socio-Economic And Environmental Issues: Implications For Food Security In Nigeria, Isaiah O. Olurinola, Evans Osabuohien

Economic and Financial Review

Socio-economic activities within the agricultural sector have witnessed significant changes in recent times. Two major factors account for this recent development. Available evidence shows that over the last four decades, environmental challenges (such as pollution, extreme weather, fire disaster and deforestation, among others) have been on the increase in Nigeria. This is complicated by a weak institutional framework to stem the tide (Egbetokun et al., 2018; 2020). Also, the information from Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET) shows that the annual mean climatic conditions (that is rainfall and temperature) in Nigeria have witnessed huge variation (NIMET, 2020; Egbetokun et al., 2020), which …

Socio-Economic And Environmental Issues: Implications For Food Security In Nigeria, Isaiah O. Olurinola, Evans Osabuohien

Economic and Financial Review

Nigeria has made many policies toward improving the contribution of the agricultural sector in the economy; however, there is a need to fine-tune some of the policies, particularly regarding food security.

There is a need for systemic intervention in the transformation of the agricultural sector including the modernisation/formalisation of the informal sector. T

Therefore, this paper sets out to, among others, investigate the state of food security in Nigeria, especially in relation to the current socio-economic and environmental issues affecting agricultural productivity, and then proffers some policy analytical models and recommendations for ensuring food security in the country.

Averting The Looming Food Crisis: A Clarion Call To Immediate And Near-Term Policy Action, Gabriel S. Umoh

Economic and Financial Review

This paper reviews food crisis and its causes in Nigeria. It takes the position that food crisis has been simmering in Nigeria for the past couple of years and identifies policy instability, poor policy implementation and declining household purchasing power, among others as the major causes of food crisis. It recommends strong policy support and implementation, automatic indexation of wages and pensions and other measures to curb food crisis in the country.

Averting The Looming Food Crisis: A Clarion Call To Immediate And Near-Term Policy Action, Emmanuel A. Onwioduokit

Economic and Financial Review

Discussions on food security have gained traction in the recent past, especially in Africa and other developing economies. Several horrifying images of famished families, particularly around “The Horn of Africa” including Somalia, Ethiopia, and some parts of Kenya, projected globally in both the print and electronic media vividly illustrate the perils of food crises. In Nigeria, food constitute a substantial share of family budgets, particularly for low-income households. When prices of essential foods items increase poorer people suffer the adverse impacts more disproportionately. While clothing and shelter are basic necessities of life, food remains the most vital, given its centrality …

Non-Tax Incentives And Agricultural Output In Nigeria, Elias A. Udeaja, Elijah O. Akanni, Emomotimi M. Question, Peter F. Offum, Titoluwa P. Eyinla

Economic and Financial Review

This study investigates the impact of non-tax incentives on agricultural sector output in Nigeria from 1981 to 2019, using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model/Bounds test technique. The findings of this study show that non-tax incentives have a significant positive impact on agricultural sector output growth in the long-run; however, the effect was negative and statistically insignificant in the short run. On the other hand, government expenditure on agriculture was negative and significant on agricultural sector output growth in the short-run, while its long-run impact was also negative but not significant. Therefore, the study recommends targeted expansion of non-tax incentives to …

The Role Of Agriculture In The Economic Diversification Of The Nigerian Economy: (1980 – 2016), Adamu Hassan Muhammad, Tahir Hussaini Mairiga, Iliya Ayuba Thompson, Usman Ismaeel Bello

Bullion

This study empirically examines the role of agriculture in the diversification of the Nigerian economy, using time series data from 1980–2016. Estimation results using Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Technique indicate that agricultural output has a positive relationship and significant impact with non-oil exports (NOE) and that non-oil revenue has a positive relationship with non-oil exports (NOE). It was recommended that, government should endeavor to increase agricultural productivity by improving its expenditure on the sector so as to enhance the growth of the economy. Government should also increase its non-oil revenue and revive the sector through sufficient budgetary allocation and …

Microfinance Credit And Micro Enterprise Development In The Agricultural Sub-Sector Of The Nigerian Economy, Ademola A. Adebisi

Bullion

This study seeks to examine the relevance of micro financing credit loans to Agri-business in Lagos State, Nigeria - the development of Agricultural sub-sector centering the attention to the contribution of the institutions involved in the provision of these credits.It makes a critical review of the performance of microfinance institutions in Nigeria, based on a survey of the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund (a microfinance scheme established to boost the agricultural sub-sector of Nigeria). The study examines the scheme – the institutions involved and analyses the performance using the outreach paradigm via the mixed approach research techniques – qualitative and …

Is Central Bank Of Nigeria Pursuing Preferential Development Finance? Some Parametric And Non-Parametric Evidence, Xavier-Itam A. Okon

Bullion

As encompassing as the development finance interventions of the Central Bank of Nigeria are, there appears to be a preference for the agricultural sector and the manufacturing sub-sector. The study applied the parametric ANOVA and the non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis Tests, to inferentially determine whether this is, indeed, the case. Findings, however, indicate that the intervention intensity is equal for all sectors, implying the Bank adopts a holistic, rather than preferential, approach to its development finance practice. This strategically engenders, among others, uniform development, inclusive growth and economic diversification. The interventions should be sustained and their coverage extended to other crucial sub-sectors …

Analysis Of The Impact Of Central Bank Of Nigeria's Agricultural Intervention Funds On The Economy, E. T. Adamgbe, M. C. Belonwu, E. R. Ochu, I. I. Okafor

Economic and Financial Review

This paper set out to investigate the impact of Central Bank of Nigeria's interventions on the agricultural sector within an economy-wide framework of general equilibrium modelling. The paper adopted a dynamic (recursive), two-sector general equilibrium model of the Nigerian economy with some modifications on the standard model developed by the Centre for Econometric and Applied Research (CEAR) and incorporated the contributions of the CBN's agricultural based interventions as increases in the stock of agricultural capital to have a more robust size of interventions into the agricultural sector. The SAM used for the CGE model analysis was derived from the updated …

Dealing With Risks And Uncertainties In Agriculture: Implications For Central Bank Of Nigeria Interventions, Polycarp, Ishaku Mikloda, Jirgi Abigail John

Bullion

The paper discusses key areas in dealing with risks in agriculture which involves much more than dealing with risky events after they occur but through a coordinated risk management processes like establishing the context, risk identification, risk analysis and other quantitative analytical tools. The key institutional risk sharing systems like credit guarantee and insurance schemes were presented with their merits and demerits.

Enhancing Institutional Lending To The Agricultural Sector By Derisking The Value Chain: The Case Of Nigerian Incentive Based Risk Sharing System For Agricultural Lending (Nirsal), Ishaku Mikloda Polycarp

Bullion

There is no gainsaying that agriculture is one of the most important sectors in the Nigerian economy as it employs at least 60% of Nigerians and contributes up to 23.11% of the country's GDP. The performance of the agricultural sector has not been encouraging over the years, resulting in the importation of over N 1.0 trillion in wheat, rice, sugar and fish. Policy responses towards channeling financial resources to the agricultural sector in Nigeria have a long history through government and CBN sponsored programmes. Among CBN intervention schemes is the Nigeria Incentive-based Risk Sharing System for Agricultural Lending (NIRSAL). It …