Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

The Alchemy Of Diversification: A Deep Dive Into The Stock-Bond Correlation, Evan Coffey

Business and Economics Honors Papers

This research delves into the intricate dynamics of the stock-bond correlation, seeking to reveal the underlying factors that drive its fluctuations. Through a comprehensive analysis of empirical data, it investigates the diverse array of influences that contribute to the variability in the relationship between stock and bond returns. Factors such as inflation, unemployment, market volatility, FED policy, and market growth are scrutinized for their impact on altering the correlation pattern. Additionally, the research explores the implications of the stock-bond correlation on portfolio diversification. By explaining the multifaceted nature of the correlation, this study provides valuable insights for investors, policymakers, and …

The Federal Reserve System: Diversity And Governance, Kaleb Nygaard, Peter Conti-Brown

Journal of Financial Crises

A growing chorus has called on the Federal Reserve System to diversify its ranks at all levels to reflect better the heterogeneity of the United States. So far, most of these efforts speak to the diversity of the Fed’s principals, namely, the members of the Fed’s Board of Governors and the presidents of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks, who together form the Federal Open Market Committee. In this study, we look instead at a vital part of Federal Reserve governance that has so far not received the same sustained attention: the directors of the Federal Reserve Banks, those private citizens …

The Dynamics Of Monthly Changes In Us Swap Yields: A Keynesian Perspective, Tanweer Akram, Khawaja Mamun

WCBT Working Papers

John Maynard Keynes (1930) asserted that the central bank sways the long-term interest rate through the influence of its policy rate on the short-term interest rate. Recent empirical research shows that Keynes's conjecture holds for long-term Treasury yields in the United States. This paper investigates whether Keynes's conjecture also holds for the monthly changes in US long-term swap yields by econometrically modeling its dynamics using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. The econometric modeling reveals that there is statistically significant effect on the monthly changes in the Treasury bill rate on the monthly changes in swap yields of different maturity …

Lessons Learned: Scott G. Alvarez, Esq., Part 2, Steven Kelly

Journal of Financial Crises

Scott G. Alvarez was general counsel of the Federal Reserve Board during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). He met with the Yale Program on Financial Stability (YPFS) to discuss a litany of legal aspects related to the Fed’s interventions under its emergency liquidity provision authority under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act. We summarize some highlights from our interview with Mr. Alvarez. The transcript of this interview, conducted in April 2022, and one from an earlier Lessons Learned interview, in December 2018

United States: Main Street Lending Program, Steven Kelly

Journal of Financial Crises

In March 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic caused slowdowns and disruptions to economic activity, businesses faced disruptions to their revenues and experienced increased demand for credit. Yet, as the pandemic worsened the economic outlook, banks tightened credit. Starting on March 17, the Federal Reserve rolled out several emergency programs aimed at capital markets. Most of these programs tended to benefit relatively large companies. On March 23, the Fed said it would introduce a program targeting small and mid-sized companies. On April 9, 2020, the Federal Reserve announced its first design iteration of the novel Main Street Lending Program (MSLP). The …

United States: Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility, Steven Kelly

Journal of Financial Crises

In the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, the US Congress passed and funded the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) to help small businesses facing business disruptions keep workers on their payrolls and meet other expenses. The PPP, signed into law on March 27, 2020, provided a mechanism for authorized lenders to extend concessionary, forgivable loans guaranteed by the Small Business Administration (SBA). Lenders ultimately extended approximately $800 billion in PPP loans. The SBA distributed the funds when the loan either defaulted or met the law's terms for SBA forgiveness. To buttress lenders' ability to fund PPP loans, the Federal Reserve …

United States: Municipal Liquidity Facility, Steven Kelly

Journal of Financial Crises

In March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic caused severe financial stress for state and local municipalities. Municipalities' public health responses led to material increases in expenditures. At the same time, many municipalities faced revenue delays and declines due to extended tax deadlines and disruptions in taxable economic activity. Institutional investors also put heavy selling pressure on municipal bonds. In response to stresses in the municipal financing market, the Federal Reserve invoked its Section 13(3) emergency lending authority and created the Municipal Liquidity Facility (MLF). The Fed created the facility to backstop municipal entities' access to capital markets to help them manage …

United States: Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility And Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility, Natalie Leonard

Journal of Financial Crises

The COVID-19 pandemic reached a critical stage in early 2020 causing severe distress and disruption in financial markets, and the United States government declared a federal state of emergency in the second week of March. As institutional investors including mutual funds, pension funds, and insurance companies withdrew from corporate bond markets and funding options for large US businesses dried up, the Federal Reserve became concerned that solvent businesses might have difficulty financing their operations. On March 23, the Federal Reserve Board invoked Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act, creating two novel emergency lending facilities to support the corporate bond …

United States: Term Auction Facility, Corey N. Runkel, Anshu Chen

Journal of Financial Crises

Following the announcement on August 9, 2007, by BNP Paribas that it was suspending redemptions for three of its open-end investment funds that had invested heavily in mortgage-backed securities, liquidity in the American interbank and short-term funding markets tightened considerably. On August 17, the Federal Reserve lowered the cost of borrowing from the discount window. However, usage remained low, due largely to the perception that such borrowing implied weak financials. In December, the Fed launched the Term Auction Facility (TAF), which used single-rate auctions to mitigate this stigma. The TAF offered discount-window credit of 28 days, and later, 84 days. …

College Street Journal (March 2022), College Of The Holy Cross

College Street Journal

College Street Journal serves as a student platform for business-related news, opportunities and resources at Holy Cross. Readers will discover a broad range of important topics from relevant news and economic issues, career development opportunities and advice, as well as Ciocca center and campus-wide opportunities to grow outside of the classroom.

Highlights of this issue include the Women in Business Club, economic impacts on culture, Easter, an alumni interview with Jim Nolan and a faculty editorial.

Sandwiched Between A Rock And A Hard Place?, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

The policy gap between US and China is likely to be widening further, potentially raising and unevenly distributing the risks of negative spillovers for Asia and the rest of the world.

The Federal Reserve’S Qe Practices Impact On Inflation: A Comparative Analysis Of The Gfc And Covid-Eras, Robert Driscoll

CMC Senior Theses

This paper investigates and compares the effects of the Fed’s quantitative easing policies on US inflation during the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid-era up to February of 2022. As inflation continues to rise, a quantitative measurement of the Fed’s monetary policy response to recessions and its resulting effect on the price level is becoming increasingly relevant. Supporting the quantity monetary theory, I test the impact of the Fed’s increasing their total assets and securities on their balance sheet on CPI and core CPI. Using multiple time series regressions and a single lag component on the analyzed variables. The model …

Stress Testing During Times Of War, Kathryn Judge

Faculty Scholarship

In the spring of 2009, the United States was mired in the greatest recession it had faced since the Great Depression. In March, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen to 6,594.44, a total decline of 53.4 percent from its peak in the fall of 2007. The official unemployment rate was over 9 percent and still trending upward, eventually exceeding 10 percent. With the support of Congress, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) and other financial regulators had launched an array of initiatives to contain the fallout of what had become a global financial crisis. These interventions, including a massive recapitalization …

Stress Tests And Policy, Greg Feldberg, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

Ten years after the Federal Reserve’s crisis-era bank stress test, it is time to recalibrate the stress tests for “peacetime.” Outside of a crisis, supervisors should tailor stress tests to focus on their comparative advantages by taking a macroprudential focus, with severe scenarios that enable them to learn about emerging risks in both traditional and shadow banking sectors. In peacetime, also, supervisors should emphasize risk- management practices and be wary of forcing rapid changes in capital levels for individual banks, while linking stress-test results with countercyclical capital buffers across the system.

The Public Banking Movement In The United States: Networks, Agenda, Initiatives, And Challenges, Esra Nur Ugurlu, Gerald Epstein

PERI Working Papers

In this paper, we analyze the contemporary public banking initiatives in the US. We first provide a brief historical account of public-oriented banking in the US. We then map out the central nodes in the contemporary public banking advocacy networks. Based on an online questionnaire and semi-structured interviews we held with public banking organizers and experts across the country, we provide an overview of the achievements of this growing movement, describe the central socio- economic issues they organize around, and examine the challenges they face. We demonstrate that the interest in public banking is a reaction to a number of …

Interest On Reserves In A Partial Two-Sector Banking Model, Shawn A. Osell

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

The Federal Reserve implemented a new monetary tool policy as it simultaneously conducted the first round of quantitative easing in 2008. At that time, the Fed began paying interest on a commercial bank's required and excess reserves in order to prevent the federal funds rate from falling to zero. Before quantitative easing, reserves were scarce enough for the federal funds rate to be determined by the supply and the demand for reserves. Consequently, the Fed would use open market operations to manipulate the federal funds rate, and thereby influence other market interest rates. When the Federal Open Market Committee decided …

Lessons Learned: Lorie Logan, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Lorie Logan is executive vice president in the Markets Group of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the System Open Market Account (SOMA) manager pro tem for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and head of Market Operations, Monitoring, and Analysis (MOMA).

Lessons Learned: Donald Kohn, Maryann Haggerty

Journal of Financial Crises

Kohn, an economist, is a 40-year veteran of the Federal Reserve System. He served as a member of the Board of Governors, and was vice chair, from 2002-2010, which included the years of the global financial crisis (GFC).

Term Securities Lending Facility (Tslf) (U.S. Gfc), Manuel Leon Hoyos

Journal of Financial Crises

The 2007–09 financial crisis reached a critical stage in March 2008. Amid falling house prices and downgrades of mortgage-related securities, financial markets became severely disrupted. The Federal Reserve—the US central bank—became increasingly concerned about the inability of the 20 primary dealers, including the five largest US investment banks, to fund themselves in short-term funding markets, such as the repurchase agreement market, then estimated at $10 trillion. In response, the Fed created several emergency lending facilities to restore market liquidity that required the Fed to invoke Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act. The Term Securities Lending Facility authorized the Federal …

The Federal Reserve’S Response To The 1987 Market Crash (U.S. Historical), Kaleb B. Nygaard

Journal of Financial Crises

The S&P 500 lost 10% the week ending Friday, October 16, 1987, and lost an additional 20% the following Monday, October 19, 1987. The date would be remembered as Black Monday. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) responded to the crash in four distinct ways: (1) issuing a public statement promising to provide liquidity, as needed, “to support the economic and financial system”; (2) providing support to the Treasury securities market by injecting in-high-demand maturities into the market via reverse repurchase agreements; (3) allowing the federal funds rate to fall from 7.5% to 7.0% and below; and (4) intervening directly to …

1970 Commercial Paper Market Liquidity Crisis (U.S. Historical), Kaleb B. Nygaard

Journal of Financial Crises

Penn Central Transportation Company (Penn Central), the resulting railroad company of the late 1960s merger of Pennsylvania Railroad and New York Central Railroad, filed for bankruptcy on June 21, 1970. The bankruptcy came in the middle of the 1969–70 recession and sparked a sharp downturn in the commercial paper market. The Federal Reserve did not intervene directly in the commercial paper market but rather increased funding options available to banks via the discount window and an amendment to Regulation Q. The banks then provided funds to corporations unable to acquire them from the commercial paper market. The liquidity crisis abated …

Designing The Main Street Lending Program: Challenges And Options, William B. English, J. Nellie Liang

Journal of Financial Crises

The Main Street Lending Program (MSLP) was established by the Federal Reserve to provide loans to small and mid-sized firms and large below-investment-grade firms that were financially sound before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The program, which was established under the Fed’s Section 13(3) emergency authorities, is supported by capital from the U.S. Treasury and became operational in July 2020; however, utilization has been slight. We describe the economic challenges in designing a loan support program and evaluate the MSLP program in terms of how it manages significant asymmetric information, adverse selection, poor targeting, and moral hazard problems while …

The Federal Reserve’S Financial Crisis Response E: The Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

Securitization is a process that allows banks and other lenders to package loans and sell them as bonds called asset-backed securities (ABS), removing them from their balance sheets and immediately generating cash for new loans. ABS are an important component of the financing cycle for many types of loans to households and small businesses, including mortgages. In the fall of 2008, financial markets began experiencing disturbances as the effects of the U.S. subprime market meltdown spread. The ABS market froze decreasing the volume of new loans to households and small businesses. The Federal Reserve became very concerned about the potential …

The Federal Reserve’S Financial Crisis Response D: Commercial Paper Market Facilities, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

During the summer of 2007, the U.S. residential mortgage market began to decline sharply negatively impacting the asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) market, which often relied on mortgages as underlying support. Money Market Mutual Funds (MMMFs), significant investors in commercial paper (CP), quickly retreated from the market, causing a substantial decline in outstanding ABCP. In September 2008, pressures on the markets severely escalated again, when the Reserve Primary Fund MMMF “broke the buck” and prompted run-like redemption requests by many MMMF investors. These disruptions resulted in higher rates and shorter maturities, practically freezing the market for term CP. Concerned about the …

The Federal Reserve’S Financial Crisis Response C: Providing U.S. Dollars To Foreign Central Banks, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

The financial crisis that began in late 2007 with the decline in the United States (U.S.) subprime mortgage markets quickly spread to other markets and eventually disrupted the interbank funding markets in the U.S. as well as overseas. To address the strain in the U.S. dollar (USD) funding markets, the Federal Reserve worked with foreign central banks around the world to provide USD liquidity to affected overseas markets by entering into currency swap agreements. Following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, and the resulting further destabilization of the world’s financial systems, the size and utilization of these swaps …

The Federal Reserve’S Financial Crisis Response B: Lending & Credit Programs For Primary Dealers, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Patricia C. Mosser, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

Beginning in the summer 2007 the Federal Reserve (the Fed) deployed numerous conventional and innovative programs to address the credit crisis occurring in the wholesale lending markets that was beginning to affect the broader financial markets and threaten the economy at large. Two of those programs, the Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) and the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) were aimed at providing liquidity to primary dealers and required the Fed to rely on its authority under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act. Section 13(3) is a Depression Era amendment that permits the Fed expanded powers in “unusual and …

The Federal Reserve’S Financial Crisis Response A: Lending & Credit Programs For Depository Institutions, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

Beginning in summer 2007, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) was called upon to address a severe disruption in the interbank lending markets sparked by a downturn in the subprime mortgage market. As these developments began to impact the ability of banks to raise adequate funding, the Fed encouraged them to utilize the Discount Window (DW), its standing facility for lending to depository institutions, and repeatedly decreased the lending rate to make the facility more accessible. Despite the Fed’s efforts, for a number of reasons, including historical perceptions of stigma, banks were reluctant to utilize the DW. In December 2007, the …

Fomc Playbook: The Only New Game In Town?, Thomas Lam

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

In light of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), while taking more aggressive actions, seems to have stuck more or less to the standard playbook of responding to “unusual and exigent circumstances”. This essentially calls for slashing conventional policy rates to their effective lower bound, accompanied by forward guidance, embarking on asset purchases, rolling out emergency liquidity facilities and experimenting with lending programmes. But policymakers, with the required US Treasury backstop, have also introduced more creative programmes to encourage credit extension and reached into different market segments.

Evaluating The Effectiveness Of Quantitative Easing: An Svar Approach, Seth T. Walker

Senior Honors Projects, 2020-current

The 2008 recession affected the American economy more than any recession since the Great Depression. Unlike its response to the Great Depression, the Federal Reserve aimed to stimulate the economy through all means in its power. However, the Federal Reserve’s conventional monetary policy tools were not viable options due to the zero lower bound. As a result, the Federal Reserve pursued an unconventional monetary policy tool known as quantitative easing which involved purchases of long-term assets on a scale never before seen in the United States. Since its inception, quantitative easing has faced significant scrutiny over its merit and has …

Predicting The Federal Funds Rate, Danielle Herzberg

Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects

This thesis examines various economic indicators to select those that are the most significant in a predictive model of the Effective Federal Funds Rate. Three different statistical models were built to show how monetary policy changed over time. These three models frame the last economic downturns in the United States; the tech bubble, the housing bubble, and the Great Recession. Many iterations of statistical regressions were conducted in order to achieve the final three models that highlight variables with the highest levels of significance. It is important to note the economic data has high levels of autocorrelation, and that these …