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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Essays On Time Series And Financial Econometrics, Yijie Fei
Essays On Time Series And Financial Econometrics, Yijie Fei
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
This dissertation contains four essays in financial econometrics. In the first essay, some asymptotic results are derived for first-order autoregression with a root moderately deviating from unity and a nonzero drift. It is shown that the drift changes drastically the large sample properties of the least-squares (LS) estimator. The second essay is concerned with the joint test of predictability and stability in the context of predictive regression. The null hypothesis under investigation is that the potential predictors exhibit no predictability and incur no structural break during the sample period. We first show that the IVX estimator provides better finite sample …
A Conditional-Heteroskedasticity-Robust Confidence Interval For The Autoregressive Parameter, Donald W.K. Andrews, Patrik Guggenberger
A Conditional-Heteroskedasticity-Robust Confidence Interval For The Autoregressive Parameter, Donald W.K. Andrews, Patrik Guggenberger
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper introduces a new confidence interval (CI) for the autoregressive parameter (AR) in an AR(1) model that allows for conditional heteroskedasticity of general form and AR parameters that are less than or equal to unity. The CI is a modification of Mikusheva’s (2007a) modification of Stock’s (1991) CI that employs the least squares estimator and a heteroskedasticity-robust variance estimator. The CI is shown to have correct asymptotic size and to be asymptotically similar (in a uniform sense). It does not require any tuning parameters. No existing procedures have these properties. Monte Carlo simulations show that the CI performs well …
Generic Results For Establishing The Asymptotic Size Of Confidence Sets And Tests, Donald W.K. Andrews, Xu Cheng, Patrik Guggenberger
Generic Results For Establishing The Asymptotic Size Of Confidence Sets And Tests, Donald W.K. Andrews, Xu Cheng, Patrik Guggenberger
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper provides a set of results that can be used to establish the asymptotic size and/or similarity in a uniform sense of confidence sets and tests. The results are generic in that they can be applied to a broad range of problems. They are most useful in scenarios where the pointwise asymptotic distribution of a test statistic has a discontinuity in its limit distribution. The results are illustrated in three examples. These are: (i) the conditional likelihood ratio test of Moreira (2003) for linear instrumental variables models with instruments that may be weak, extended to the case of heteroskedastic …
A Conditional-Heteroskedasticity-Robust Confidence Interval For The Autoregressive Parameter, Donald W.K. Andrews, Patrik Guggenberger
A Conditional-Heteroskedasticity-Robust Confidence Interval For The Autoregressive Parameter, Donald W.K. Andrews, Patrik Guggenberger
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper introduces a new confidence interval (CI) for the autoregressive parameter (AR) in an AR(1) model that allows for conditional heteroskedasticity of general form and AR parameters that are less than or equal to unity. The CI is a modification of Mikusheva’s (2007a) modification of Stock’s (1991) CI that employs the least squares estimator and a heteroskedasticity-robust variance estimator. The CI is shown to have correct asymptotic size and to be asymptotically similar (in a uniform sense). It does not require any tuning parameters. No existing procedures have these properties. Monte Carlo simulations show that the CI performs well …
Hybrid And Size-Corrected Subsample Methods, Donald W.K. Andrews, Patrik Guggenberger
Hybrid And Size-Corrected Subsample Methods, Donald W.K. Andrews, Patrik Guggenberger
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper considers the problem of constructing tests and confidence intervals (CIs) that have correct asymptotic size in a broad class of non-regular models. The models considered are non-regular in the sense that standard test statistics have asymptotic distributions that are discontinuous in some parameters. It is shown in Andrews and Guggenberger (2005a) that standard fixed critical value, subsample, and b < n bootstrap methods often have incorrect size in such models. This paper introduces general methods of constructing tests and CIs that have correct size. First, procedures are introduced that are a hybrid of subsample and fixed critical value methods. The resulting hybrid procedures are easy to compute and have correct size asymptotically in many, but not all, cases of interest. Second, the paper introduces size-correction and “plug-in” size-correction methods for fixed critical value, subsample, and hybrid tests. The paper also introduces finite-sample adjustments to the asymptotic results of Andrews and Guggenberger (2005a) for subsample and hybrid methods and employs these adjustments in size-correction. The paper discusses several examples in detail. The examples are: (i) tests when a nuisance parameter may be near a boundary, (ii) CIs in an autoregressive model with a root that may be close to unity, and (iii) tests and CIs based on a post-conservative model selection estimator.