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2026

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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

Legends, Lies, & Rewritten Lives: After The Little Bighorn: Forgotten Struggles Of Those Who Walked Away, 2nd Edition, Thomas B. Davidson Jun 2026

Legends, Lies, & Rewritten Lives: After The Little Bighorn: Forgotten Struggles Of Those Who Walked Away, 2nd Edition, Thomas B. Davidson

DU Textbooks

This Story surrounds an event that occurred one summer on June 25, 1876, along the banks of the Little Bighorn River in what is now the state of Montana. Seen from a 21st century perch, it is a story of a collision between two very different civilizations or empires. Both empire’s military fought in the manner of their society. This narrative will attempt to balance the believable truth of what happened in that contest between the military representatives of both societies while also trying to tell an engaging story, without drifting into naked partisanship, purple prose, or sensationalism. The narrative …


Disability Experiences Of University Students: An Interview Study, Cece Austin Jun 2026

Disability Experiences Of University Students: An Interview Study, Cece Austin

University Honors Theses

This thesis explores the experiences of college/university students with disabilities within the educational system. Using a qualitative research design, semi-structured interviews were conducted with students who identify as disabled or having disabilities in order to explore impacts of disability on their lives, with a focus on experiences navigating academic environments and accessing accommodations. Findings revealed two recurring themes: 1) the importance of both registered accommodations and accessibility efforts from faculty, and 2) difficulties with accommodations, internalized ableism, and disclosure. This research contributes to broader discussions on disability, inclusion, and educational equity by highlighting the lived experiences of students with disabilities …


Assessment Of Information Literacy Instruction In Reference: Applying Vanscoy’S Conceptual And Procedural Framework In Practice, Vanessa Arce Jun 2026

Assessment Of Information Literacy Instruction In Reference: Applying Vanscoy’S Conceptual And Procedural Framework In Practice, Vanessa Arce

Communications in Information Literacy

The instructional aspect of reference work has long been acknowledged, especially in academic libraries. The current RUSA guidelines include helping users develop information literacy as a goal of reference. In this context, investigating the presence and nature of information literacy instruction can be used to assess the quality of reference services. This study applied Amy VanScoy’s conceptual/procedural framework for point-of-need instruction to a sample of chat reference transcripts at Lehman College, City University of New York. One of the assessment’s goals was to determine the prevalence of instruction and type of knowledge addressed in reference interactions. Another goal was to …


"An Open Mind And A Critical Stance": A Content Analysis Of Information Literacy Integration Into A Course About Poverty And Discrimination, Ashley Shealy, C. Rebecca Oldham, Clay Oldham, Tara L. Griffith Jun 2026

"An Open Mind And A Critical Stance": A Content Analysis Of Information Literacy Integration Into A Course About Poverty And Discrimination, Ashley Shealy, C. Rebecca Oldham, Clay Oldham, Tara L. Griffith

Communications in Information Literacy

The ACRL Framework argues that infusing curriculum with information literacy concepts can improve students’ attitudes and abilities to navigate complex information landscapes. This paper describes how a librarian and a faculty member integrated an information literacy curriculum into an undergraduate upper-division course about poverty and discrimination. Curriculum efficacy was assessed through directed content analysis of student responses to open-ended questions about engaging with news and social media, forming opinions, and having conversations about controversial topics. Responses were analyzed using a coding scheme based on course objectives derived from Framework dispositions and knowledge practices. Results indicated that exposing students to an …


Research Matters: Problem-Setting: A Research Reflection Process, Merinda Kaye Hensley Jun 2026

Research Matters: Problem-Setting: A Research Reflection Process, Merinda Kaye Hensley

Communications in Information Literacy

In this inaugural “Research Matters” column, Merinda Kaye Hensley introduces problem-setting as an intentional research reflection process inspired by instructional design. This three-pronged approach invites librarians to examine their research agendas by surfacing prior knowledge, identifying bottlenecks, and creating an assumptions inventory. By interrogating what we think we know and where we struggle in doing research related to information literacy, problem-setting reframes our research processes as a generative, inquiry-driven practice. Drawing on an example from her own research agenda, investigating undergraduate researchers’ understandings of the publication process, Hensley demonstrates how reflective problem-setting can unstick thinking, sharpen questions and energize scholarly …


Book Review: Beyond Black Hawk Down: Intervention, Nation-Building, And Insurgency In Somalia, 1992-1995, Christian Werner Jun 2026

Book Review: Beyond Black Hawk Down: Intervention, Nation-Building, And Insurgency In Somalia, 1992-1995, Christian Werner

Parameters Bookshelf – Online Book Reviews

Author: Jonathan Carroll

Reviewed by: Colonel Christian Werner, director of European studies, Department of National Security and Strategy, US Army War College

In this groundbreaking military history, Jonathan Carroll moves beyond the infamous Battle of Mogadishu to uncover the full scope of the US and UN intervention in Somalia. Drawing on newly available sources and the Somali perspective, Carroll reveals how a promising humanitarian mission unraveled into a cautionary tale of political missteps and failed nation-building. Beyond Black Hawk Down offers vital lessons for future interventions in fragile states, making it essential reading for policymakers, historians, and military strategists alike. …


Book Review: Lessons Learned And Unlearned: The Drivers Of Us Indirect-Fire Innovation, Michael E. Lynch Jun 2026

Book Review: Lessons Learned And Unlearned: The Drivers Of Us Indirect-Fire Innovation, Michael E. Lynch

Parameters Bookshelf – Online Book Reviews

Author: Brennan S. Deveraux

Reviewed by: Dr. Michael E. Lynch

How does military innovation really happen—and what causes it to stall? In Lessons Learned and Unlearned, Brennan S. Deveraux traces the evolution of U.S. indirect-fire systems, revealing how institutional memory, battlefield experience, and strategic priorities shape technological progress. This sharp analysis offers vital insights for defense planners, historians, and anyone interested in the mechanics of military adaptation.


Review Essay: World War Ii Generals, John A. Bonin Jun 2026

Review Essay: World War Ii Generals, John A. Bonin

Parameters Bookshelf – Online Book Reviews

Books Reviewed:

1. Tubby: Raymond O. Barton and the United States Army, 1889–1963 by Stephen A. Bourque

2. Patton’s Tactician: The War Diary of Lieutenant General Geoffrey Keyes edited by James W. Holsinger Jr.

Reviewed by: Dr. John A. Bonin, distinguished fellow, US Army War College

Two revealing studies shed light on overlooked World War II commanders whose leadership shaped key moments from Normandy to the early Cold War. These dual studies uncover the complexities of senior Army leadership—showing how personal relationships, hard‑won experiences, and strategic insights shaped victory in Europe.

©2026 John A. Bonin


Book Review: Occupation: Russian Rule In South-Eastern Ukraine, Christopher J. Hickey Jun 2026

Book Review: Occupation: Russian Rule In South-Eastern Ukraine, Christopher J. Hickey

Parameters Bookshelf – Online Book Reviews

Author: David Lewis

Reviewed by: Colonel Christopher J. Hickey, PhD, associate professor, Department of Military Strategy, Planning, and Operations, US Army War College

In this timely and penetrating study, David Lewis examines the mechanisms and consequences of Russian governance in occupied southeastern Ukraine. Through on-the-ground analysis and geopolitical insight, the book reveals how local institutions, identity, and resistance are reshaped under foreign rule. It’s an essential read for understanding the evolving dynamics of power, control, and legitimacy in one of Europe’s most contested regions.


The Emerging Roles Of Ai In Self-Directed Stress Management: Systematic Review, Mary Kamillah Grace Reyes, Shauna Sha Min Teo, Andree Hartanto Jun 2026

The Emerging Roles Of Ai In Self-Directed Stress Management: Systematic Review, Mary Kamillah Grace Reyes, Shauna Sha Min Teo, Andree Hartanto

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

Background: Stress is widespread and carries substantial mental health, social, and economic burdens. Yet, access to clinician-led stress management remains constrained by service capacity, cost, and stigma. In response, artificial intelligence (AI)–enabled tools have rapidly proliferated as scalable, self-directed options. However, evidence on how these systems support stress management outside formal clinical settings remains fragmented. Objective: This systematic review aimed to synthesize empirical evidence on how AI-enabled technologies are used for self-directed stress management. We mapped the emerging functions of these tools, the psychological frameworks informing their design, the populations and settings studied, and the outcomes reported. Methods: We conducted …


Ai Fatigue In Human–Ai Interaction: Conceptual Framework, Scale Development And Validation, And Associations With Ai Engagement, Gabriel R. Lau, K. T. A. Sandeeshwara Kasturiratna, Adalia Y. H. Goh, Eddie M. W. Tong, Andree Hartanto Jun 2026

Ai Fatigue In Human–Ai Interaction: Conceptual Framework, Scale Development And Validation, And Associations With Ai Engagement, Gabriel R. Lau, K. T. A. Sandeeshwara Kasturiratna, Adalia Y. H. Goh, Eddie M. W. Tong, Andree Hartanto

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

Emerging from the accelerating pace of AI development, user fatigue arising from prolonged human–AI interaction has become an increasing concern in public discourse. This growing attention underscores the need to clarify why sustained engagement with AI systems can generate psychophysiological strain and how such exhaustion manifests in users. The present research develops a conceptual framework for AI fatigue and introduces the 15-item AI Fatigue Scale as a validated tool for examining its correlates. Across four studies with 717 participants, we generated and content-validated an item pool, identified and confirmed a four-factor (cognitive, emotional, physical, behavioural) higher-order model. The scale demonstrated …


Daily Problematic Smartphone Use Predicts Decreases In Self-Control Capacity: Evidence From Random-Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel Model, Adalia Yin Hui Goh, Andree Hartanto Jun 2026

Daily Problematic Smartphone Use Predicts Decreases In Self-Control Capacity: Evidence From Random-Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel Model, Adalia Yin Hui Goh, Andree Hartanto

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

Amidst the widespread increase in global smartphone screen time and the phenomenon of ‘The Great Exhaustion’, where multiple surveys indicate pervasive tiredness and feelings of being drained, there is growing concern about the link between problematic smartphone use and the capacity for self-control. While numerous studies have investigated the relationship between problematic smartphone use and self-control capacity, they are mostly cross-sectional. Thus, it is unclear whether the lack of capacity for self-control is an antecedent or consequence of problematic smartphone use. Addressing the research gap, we conducted a 7-day diary study to investigate the bidirectional relationship between problematic smartphone use …


Engineering Immunity? Biotechnical Governance And The Experimental Failures Of Project Wolbachia In Singapore, Siew Ying Shee, Orlando Woods, Sayd Randle Jun 2026

Engineering Immunity? Biotechnical Governance And The Experimental Failures Of Project Wolbachia In Singapore, Siew Ying Shee, Orlando Woods, Sayd Randle

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

This paper introduces the idea of ‘experimental failure’ to critically interrogate the limits of engineering biological systems for urban governance. Whilst experimentation through projects related to smart cities and eco-cities has garnered significant attention, biotechnical experiments––which manipulate living organisms through technology––remain underexplored. Unlike interventions leveraging non-living, inanimate systems, engineering life must contend with ecological ‘unruliness’ and social uncertainties. These complexities often resist straightforward quantification and exceed conventional evaluation frameworks, demanding a rethinking of what constitutes ‘success’ and ‘failure’ in such interventions. Drawing on ethnographic research with public health officers, pest management professionals and residents in Singapore, we analyse the government-led …


Calibrations And Compliance: The Role Of Motivations In Policy Instrument Design, Panchali Guha, Ishani Mukherjee Jun 2026

Calibrations And Compliance: The Role Of Motivations In Policy Instrument Design, Panchali Guha, Ishani Mukherjee

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

Most research on the role of policy calibrations in fostering policy target compliance has focused on the calibration of incentives and deterrents; less attention has been paid to examining the deployment and calibration of a wider range of policy instruments with the intention of eliciting a greater degree of compliance from policy targets with heterogeneous motivations. This article addresses this gap in the literature by empirically testing multiple hypotheses on the relationship between the calibration of different kinds of policy instruments and policy compliance for policy targets characterized by different motivations. Using data from a vignette experiment set in the …


Of Climate Justice And Magical Realism, Sonya Ziaja Jun 2026

Of Climate Justice And Magical Realism, Sonya Ziaja

Michigan Law Review

A review of Climate Justice: What Rich Nations Owe the World—and the Future. By Cass R. Sunstein.


Evidence Brief: Shifting Attitudes And Social Norms On Fgm Through Community-Based Interventions In Isiolo And Narok Counties Of Kenya, Stella Muthuri, Dennis Matanda, Francis Obare, Robert Omondi, Stephen Kizito, Chi-Chi Undie Jun 2026

Evidence Brief: Shifting Attitudes And Social Norms On Fgm Through Community-Based Interventions In Isiolo And Narok Counties Of Kenya, Stella Muthuri, Dennis Matanda, Francis Obare, Robert Omondi, Stephen Kizito, Chi-Chi Undie

Sexual and Reproductive Health, Rights, and Choices

The Girl Generation: Support to the Africa-Led Movement (TGG-ALM) programme in Kenya demonstrates that community-based, dialogue-driven interventions can shift social norms, attitudes, and behavioural intentions related to female genital mutilation (FGM), while also strengthening gender-equitable beliefs. Drawing on evidence from Isiolo and Narok counties, this evaluation shows that exposure to intergenerational dialogues, women’s reflection circles, and couple-based engagement is associated with stronger personal opposition to FGM, increased acceptance of uncut girls, and greater willingness to abandon the practice.


Strategic Communication For Population Stabilization: From Narrative To Sbcc Action, Population Council Pakistan Jun 2026

Strategic Communication For Population Stabilization: From Narrative To Sbcc Action, Population Council Pakistan

Sexual and Reproductive Health, Rights, and Choices

The Population Council led a landmark national effort to redefine population discourse in Pakistan through the development of a unified, rights-based national narrative—Tawazun (Balance). This narrative, endorsed by the Federal Task Force on Population and adopted at the highest policy forums, reframed population from a fragmented and sensitive issue into a shared national development priority. Tawazun established a clear framework—balancing rights, responsibilities, and resources—positioning family planning within the broader goals of family well-being, human development, and national sustainability. Importantly, the narrative was formally adopted by federal and provincial governments, and integrated into policy frameworks, communication strategies, and development planning processes.


Compellingness In Nash Implementation, Shurojit Chatterji, Takashi Kunimoto, Paulo Daniel Salles Ramos Jun 2026

Compellingness In Nash Implementation, Shurojit Chatterji, Takashi Kunimoto, Paulo Daniel Salles Ramos

Research Collection School Of Economics

A social choice function (SCF) is said to be Nash implementable (in pure strategies) if there exists a mechanism in which every pure-strategy Nash equilibrium induces outcomes specified by the SCF. The main objective of this paper is to assess the impact of considering mixed-strategy equilibria in Nash implementation. We define compelling Nash implementation as a case where the implementing mechanism possesses a pure-strategy equilibrium that strictly Pareto dominates any undesired mixed-strategy equilibrium. We show that if the finite environment and the SCF to be implemented jointly satisfy what we call Condition COM, then we can construct a finite …


From Review To Synthesis: A Step-By-Step Methodological Guide To Systematic Reviews And Multilevel Meta-Analyses, Meilan Hu, Paye Shin Koh, Xun Ci Soh, Andree Hartanto, Nadyanna M. Majeed Jun 2026

From Review To Synthesis: A Step-By-Step Methodological Guide To Systematic Reviews And Multilevel Meta-Analyses, Meilan Hu, Paye Shin Koh, Xun Ci Soh, Andree Hartanto, Nadyanna M. Majeed

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

We provide a step-by-step guide on conducting a quantitative systematic review (i.e., meta-analysis) using the open-source programming language R, as well as conducting a multilevel meta-analysis, in contexts where effect sizes are non-independent (e.g., multiple studies from the same lab). Quantitative systematic reviews offer researchers a method for synthesizing large bodies of literature, helping clarify inconsistent findings, identify research gaps, and refine theoretical models. However, existing tutorials often assume prior knowledge and/or experience, often overlooking foundational concepts. To address this gap, a comprehensive walkthrough of the systematic review process is presented, covering pre-registration, literature search and retrieval, screening, risk of …


Well-Being Of University Students In Singapore, Tina Li Yi Ng, Andree Hartanto, William Tov Jun 2026

Well-Being Of University Students In Singapore, Tina Li Yi Ng, Andree Hartanto, William Tov

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

Singapore provides an insightful case study for university student well-being due to its national culture of competitiveness. Amid a meritocratic society that valorizes academic success as the path to securing one’s future (Ho et al., 1998), educational attainment is central to Singaporean university students’ well-being (Inter-University Network, 2022). In response to Singapore’s increasing incidence of mental health challenges among young adults (Ministry of Health Singapore, 2022), the government and higher education institutes have sought to destigmatize mental health and improve accessibility to related resources. In this chapter, we review the literature on the well-being of Singaporean university students. We situate …


Beyond Religious Narcissistic Identification: Agnostic And Atheistic Narcissism, Magdalena Żemojtel-Piotrowska, Jarosław Piotrowski, Bartłomiej Nowak, V. Saroglou, John Maltby, Constantine Sedikides, Mladen Adamovic, Nur Amali Aminnuddin, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, Rahkman Ardi, Zana Babakr, Einar Baldursson, Sergiu Bălţătescu, M. Bilgehan Aytaç, Li, Norman P., Bruno Bonfá-Araujo, Matthias Burghart, Phatthanakit Chobthamkit, Marilyn Clark, Magali. Clobert Jun 2026

Beyond Religious Narcissistic Identification: Agnostic And Atheistic Narcissism, Magdalena Żemojtel-Piotrowska, Jarosław Piotrowski, Bartłomiej Nowak, V. Saroglou, John Maltby, Constantine Sedikides, Mladen Adamovic, Nur Amali Aminnuddin, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, Rahkman Ardi, Zana Babakr, Einar Baldursson, Sergiu Bălţătescu, M. Bilgehan Aytaç, Li, Norman P., Bruno Bonfá-Araujo, Matthias Burghart, Phatthanakit Chobthamkit, Marilyn Clark, Magali. Clobert

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

Agnosticism and atheism are often grouped simply as nonreligious identities, yet emerging research highlights their distinct psychological profiles and social implications. Among these distinctions, collective narcissism—characterized by strong attachment to one’s group, exceptionalism, and grievance for recognition—offers a framework for understanding identity processes in both nonreligious groups. We examined whether agnostics and atheists exhibit collective narcissism and its forms (agentic—focused on exceptional effectiveness; communal—focused on exceptional morality) similarly to believers. We explored crossdenominational variance in agentic and communal collective narcissism levels relying on data from 77 countries (N = 3,570; 1227 agnostics, 2343 atheists). Agnostics and atheists from secular countries …


Drone Urbanisms, Siew Ying Shee Jun 2026

Drone Urbanisms, Siew Ying Shee

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

Across contemporary cities, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) particularly drones have emerged as critical instruments for sensing, visualizing, and reconfiguring the built environment. Yet, urban space is not merely a passive backdrop for drone activity; it both shapes and is reshaped by them. The central question for understanding drone urbanism, then, is not only what drones do, but how their deployment redistributes the agency to see, know, and intervene across human operators, infrastructures, and algorithms.This renegotiation of visibility, authority, and knowledge takes shape through the ways drones mediate the governance and experiential textures of the city. Departing from the distant totalities …


The Five Cs Of Positive Youth Development In Singapore: Building Adolescent Resilience, Teresa Theodora Jing Yi Tan, Li Neng Lee Jun 2026

The Five Cs Of Positive Youth Development In Singapore: Building Adolescent Resilience, Teresa Theodora Jing Yi Tan, Li Neng Lee

Journal of Youth Development

The Five Cs of Positive Youth Development (PYD) model is one of the most empirically discussed frameworks on youth thriving. Generalisability of the model was investigated among 210 middle (15-18 years old) and 250 late (19-25 years old) adolescents in Singapore. The Five Cs of PYD was evaluated as a mediator between intentional self-regulation, social-emotional competencies and family functioning, and the outcome of adolescent resilience. Results validate the model among youths in Singapore and show that the Five Cs of PYD positively predict adolescent resilience. The study extends the global application of the model while highlighting the need to consider …


Beyond The Shelf: How Reallocating Shelf Space To Emerging Brands Enhances Store Performance Through Dynamic Brand-Level Effects, Jesse Core, Ho Kim Jun 2026

Beyond The Shelf: How Reallocating Shelf Space To Emerging Brands Enhances Store Performance Through Dynamic Brand-Level Effects, Jesse Core, Ho Kim

Journal of Applied Marketing Theory

This study examines the effects of reallocating shelf space from established to emerging brands in the flavored malt beverage category, a fast-moving, impulse-driven product category. Using a 13-week field experiment in 16 U.S. grocery stores (six treated, ten control), we reallocated one shelf facing from an established to an emerging brand for four weeks before reverting the shelves to their original configuration. Then we analyzed weekly SKU-level data on sales with fixed-effects panel regressions. Results show that the shelf-space reallocation increased category sales by 21.2% during treatment and 27.6% after reversion, revealing persistent gains. At the brand level, emerging brands …


Investigating The Structural Barriers And Opportunities For End-Of-Life Management Of Agricultural Plastic Waste Within California's Strawberry Industry, Rory M. O'Toole Jun 2026

Investigating The Structural Barriers And Opportunities For End-Of-Life Management Of Agricultural Plastic Waste Within California's Strawberry Industry, Rory M. O'Toole

Master's Theses

Agricultural plastic waste (APW) accounts for a significant and growing share of global plastic pollution, yet no study has documented how APW management functions across a specific crop system from production through end-of-life (EOL). This thesis addresses that gap by examining the structures and valuations that shape current EOL management of plastic mulch (PM) and drip tape (DT) in California's strawberry industry, one of the nation's most plastic-dependent crop systems. Drawing on an ethnographic approach that included 27 semi-structured interviews with stakeholders, as well as site visits, this study traces how APW is produced, valued, and discarded within a structurally …


Development Of A Video-Based Tool To Measure Motor Asymmetry In Infants At Risk For Hemiparesis, Roha Ali Jun 2026

Development Of A Video-Based Tool To Measure Motor Asymmetry In Infants At Risk For Hemiparesis, Roha Ali

Master's Theses

Congenital hemiparesis is a unilateral motor impairment stemming from brain injury in utero or early postnatally. Hemiparesis can be difficult to detect in early infancy with current clinical tools. Yet, early identification of motor asymmetry could play a key role in the design of effective early intervention and rehabilitation strategies. This thesis presents the development and validation of a video-based tool designed to extract infant limb movement data using DeepLabCut’s (DLC) machine learning network. The pipeline was developed using videos of typically developing (TD) infants and infants with Asymmetric Perinatal Brain Injury (APBI), all at or under 3 months corrected …


Collaboration In Context: The Present And Future Of Coordinated Care For New Mexico's Military-Connected Population, Zachary Bridgewater, Vincent Delsignore, Mary Rachel Keville, Lisa Marie Murray Jun 2026

Collaboration In Context: The Present And Future Of Coordinated Care For New Mexico's Military-Connected Population, Zachary Bridgewater, Vincent Delsignore, Mary Rachel Keville, Lisa Marie Murray

Institute for Veterans and Military Families

With the support of the New Mexico State Legislature, the D’Aniello Institute for Veterans and Military Families (IVMF) led a multi-phase project to design a coordinated care system for New Mexican service members, veterans, and their families. In the project’s first phase, the IVMF conducted a landscape assessment to understand the needs of the military-connected community and examined the viability of a coordinated care system for the state. Key findings included strong support for coordinated care amongst veteran serving organizations, a fragmented service landscape across the state, structural barriers to care caused by rurality and geographic concentrations of resources, and …


From The Editor: The Journal: Supporting Michigan’S Dental Community, Romesh Nalliah Jun 2026

From The Editor: The Journal: Supporting Michigan’S Dental Community, Romesh Nalliah

The Journal of the Michigan Dental Association

Editor-in-Chief Dr. Romesh Nalliah explores the concept of "community" as a shared responsibility within the dental profession. He positions the Journal of the Michigan Dental Association as a vital tool for connecting practitioners and delivering rigorously reviewed scientific content to guide clinical decision-making. While acknowledging technological advances like artificial intelligence, Nalliah maintains that "soft skills"—including listening, empathy, and critical thinking—remain the most essential factors for success. He encourages members to utilize the Journal for mentorship and professional support.


Volume 46, Number 2, June 2026 Olac Newsletter, Laura Kane Mcelfresh, Kyla Jemison, Tanesa G. King, Nerissa Lindsey, Amanda Mack, Michael Herrick, Heather Pretty, Lisa Romano, Janelle Zetty Jun 2026

Volume 46, Number 2, June 2026 Olac Newsletter, Laura Kane Mcelfresh, Kyla Jemison, Tanesa G. King, Nerissa Lindsey, Amanda Mack, Michael Herrick, Heather Pretty, Lisa Romano, Janelle Zetty

OLAC Newsletters

Digital version of the June 2026 issue of the OLAC Newsletter.


(Wp 2026-03) Fomc Forecasts, Constant-Gain Learning, And Optimism/Pessimism, Stephen J. Cole Jun 2026

(Wp 2026-03) Fomc Forecasts, Constant-Gain Learning, And Optimism/Pessimism, Stephen J. Cole

Economics Working Papers

This paper uses an adaptive learning framework to study FOMC forecasts from the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) dataset. FOMC expectations are modeled as the sum of two components: (1) an endogenous learning part and (2) a sentiment part capturing waves of optimism and/or pessimism. The results include key policy takeaways. FOMC forecasts are responsive to incoming macroeconomic information, consistent with adaptive learning, while sentiment is persistent, correlated across GDP growth and inflation forecasts, and becomes quantitatively more important during and around recessions. FOMC participants also rely more on their endogenous/learning model to form expectations, but sentiment plays a larger …