Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Financial Bubble Implosion, Peter C.B. Phillips, Shu-Ping Shi

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Expansion and collapse are two key features of a financial asset bubble. Bubble expansion may be modeled using a mildly explosive process. Bubble implosion may take several different forms depending on the nature of the collapse and therefore requires some flexibility in modeling. This paper develops analytics and studies the performance characteristics of the real time bubble monitoring strategy proposed in Phillips, Shi and Yu (2014b,c, PSY) under alternative forms of bubble implosion that can be represented in terms of mildly integrated processes which capture various return paths to market normalcy. We propose a new reverse sample use of the …

Restricted Likelihood Ratio Tests In Predictive Regression, Peter C.B. Phillips, Ye Chen

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Chen and Deo (2009a) proposed procedures based on restricted maximum likelihood (REML) for estimation and inference in the context of predictive regression. Their method achieves bias reduction in both estimation and inference which assists in overcoming size distortion in predictive hypothesis testing. This paper provides extensions of the REML approach to more general cases which allow for drift in the predictive regressor and multiple regressors. It is shown that without modification the REML approach is seriously oversized and can have unit rejection probability in the limit under the null when the drift in the regressor is dominant. A limit theory …

The Double Role Of Ethnic Heterogeneity In Explaining Welfare-State Generosity, Markus Jäntti, Gerald David Jaynes, John E. Roemer

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Based on theoretical models of budget-balanced social insurance and individual choice, we argue that in addition to the well-known empathy mechanism whereby ethnic heterogeneity undermines sentiments of solidarity among a citizenry to reduce welfare generosity, population heterogeneity affects the generosity of a polity’s social insurance programs through another distinct mechanism, political conflict . Ethnic heterogeneity likely intensifies political conflict and reduces welfare generosity because heterogeneity of unemployment risk makes it more difficult to achieve social consensus concerning tax-benefit programs. Utilizing two separate regression analyses covering highly diverse polities, the 50 U.S. states and District of Columbia (CPS data), and 13 …

Informational Robustness And Solution Concepts, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Consider the following “informational robustness” question: what can we say about the set of outcomes that may arise in equilibrium of a Bayesian game if players may observe some additional information? This set of outcomes will correspond to a solution concept that is weaker than equilibrium, with the solution concept depending on what restrictions are imposed on the additional information. We describe a unified approach encompassing prior informational robustness results, as well as identifying the solution concept that corresponds to no restrictions on the additional information; this version of rationalizability depends only on the support of players’ beliefs and implies …

Informational Robustness And Solution Concepts, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We discuss four solution concepts for games with incomplete information. We show how each solution concept can be viewed as encoding informational robustness. For a given type space, we consider expansions of the type space that provide players with additional signals. We distinguish between expansions along two dimensions. First, the signals can either convey payoff relevant information or only payoff irrelevant information. Second, the signals can be generated from a common (prior) distribution or not. We establish the equivalence between Bayes Nash equilibrium behavior under the resulting expansion of the type space and a corresponding more permissive solution concept under …

Optimal Uniform Convergence Rates And Asymptotic Normality For Series Estimators Under Weak Dependence And Weak Conditions, Xiaohong Chen, Timothy M. Christensen

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We show that spline and wavelet series regression estimators for weakly dependent regressors attain the optimal uniform (i.e., sup-norm) convergence rate ( n /log n ) - p /(2p+ d ) of Stone (1982), where d is the number of regressors and p is the smoothness of the regression function. The optimal rate is achieved even for heavy-tailed martingale difference errors with finite (2 + ( d/p ))th absolute moment for d/p < 2. We also establish the asymptotic normality of t statistics for possibly nonlinear, irregular functionals of the conditional mean function under weak conditions. The results are proved by deriving a new exponential inequality for sums of weakly dependent random matrices, which is of independent interest.

Asymptotic Size Of Kleibergen's Lm And Conditional Lr Tests For Moment Condition Models, Donald W.K. Andrews, Patrik Guggenberger

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

An influential paper by Kleibergen (2005) introduces Lagrange multiplier (LM) and conditional likelihood ratio-like (CLR) tests for nonlinear moment condition models. These procedures aim to have good size performance even when the parameters are unidentified or poorly identified. However, the asymptotic size and similarity (in a uniform sense) of these procedures has not been determined in the literature. This paper does so. This paper shows that the LM test has correct asymptotic size and is asymptotically similar for a suitably chosen parameter space of null distributions. It shows that the CLR tests also have these properties when the dimension p …

Comprehending Male And Female Levels Of Engagement In Subsets Of The National Survey Of Student Engagement: Explicating The Dynamics Of Gender Role Conflict As A Mediating Factor For Males, Jacob Glen Arndt

Dissertations

Male enrollment and graduate rates in higher education have paled in comparison to female achievement since the early 1980’s, and explanations as to the reasons behind why males are falling behind have not been fruitful in addressing these issues. One area that has received very little attention in the literature is the role that gender role conflict may play in male student performance.

The purpose of this research is to explore male and female engagement levels, while attempting to understand if levels of male gender role conflict are a mediating factor of engagement for men. This study utilized the three …

A Game Of Skill: Video Game Enthusiasm And Confidence With Computers, Rebecca L. Sevin

Masters Theses

This study explores the relationship between recreational involvement with video games and an interest in computer science as well as confidence with computers. Multiple works have acknowledged that the content in video games and the video game culture is presently very hostile towards women. Simultaneously, the number of women pursuing computer science has been decreasing since the 1980s. Past studies have suggested that playing video games can increase confidence with computers and may lead to an interest in computer science. Using data collected from 1,124 college students, this study addresses this issue by using a variety of measures to gauge …

55 | Bet Dagan: Intermediate Bronze Age And Mamluk-Period Cemeteries, 2004–2005 Excavations, Eli Yannai, Yossi Nagar

IAA Reports—Monograph Series of the Israel Antiquities Authority

This volume describes the IAA excavation of two cemeteries of different periods on the coastal plain near Tel Aviv. The excavation uncovered one of the largest Intermediate Bronze Age shaft-tomb cemeteries with burial assemblages and anthropological remains known to date. The Muslim cemetery is unique in having no tombs or grave goods.

Psychophysiological Predictors Of Working Alliance Among Treatment-Seeking Women With Complex Trauma Exposure, Ashley Doukas, Wendy D'Andrea, Jennifer Doran, Nnamdi Pole

Psychology: Faculty Publications

Research has established that trauma-related symptoms may impede the formation of a strong working alliance (i.e., interpersonal connection, trust, and shared goals between therapist and client). As the alliance is critical in trauma-focused therapy, we studied how clients' pretherapy factors, including symptoms and psychophysiological arousal, predict treatment alliance. We examined symptoms and physiological responses in 27 women who had exposure to extreme interpersonal violence; all of whom were enrolled in therapy. All had symptoms consistent with a diagnosis of posttraumatic stress disorder. Clients completed measures of working alliance and were assessed before and after treatment on measures of symptoms and …

We Got Game! Using Games For Library Orientation, Lesli Baker, Annie Smith

LOEX Conference Proceedings 2012

Working with Millennial students requires librarians to use new approaches to engage and reach them effectively. Games offer an entertaining and effective means of teaching students basic information literacy principles while introducing them to the library and library services. Over a two-year period, the Utah Valley University (UVU) Library created and piloted two self-paced orientation games to introduce the library and library services. The Get a Clue game used clues placed throughout the building to orient students to the physical library and basic services while solving a mystery. LibraryCraft used an online game to introduce students to the library’s website …

From Prix Fixe To A La Carte: Using Lesson Study To Collaborate With Faculty In Customizing Information Literacy, Eric Jennings, Hans Kishel, Jill Markgraf

LOEX Conference Proceedings 2012

The one-shot, prix fixe library instruction session has long been the reality for many information literacy programs. Learn how one library used lesson study, a collaborative process of planning, observing and assessing a single lesson, to put in motion ongoing collaboration with faculty across several disciplines. Through the collaborative process of redesigning a single lesson, librarians and teaching faculty confronted their respective expectations for and challenges in providing library instruction, and ignited the interest of faculty from English, nursing and the sciences. Through work with a variety of faculty, librarians learned that a single instruction model does not work for …

Criticism Is Not A Four-Letter Word: Best Practices For Constructive Feedback In The Peer Review Of Teaching, Jaena Alabi, William H. Weare Jr.

LOEX Conference Proceedings 2012

Suppose a colleague has asked you to provide feedback on an instruction session you have observed, and the session was less than ideal: the instructor was poorly prepared; technical difficulties forced your colleague to improvise; the students did not pay attention, much less participate. In essence, things went wrong. She has asked for your opinion, but you are not sure how to respond. Should you tell your colleague what you really think? What obligation do you have to her? Can you provide honest feedback without causing her to become defensive or hurt?

In recent years, the peer review of teaching …

Instructor College Virtual Swap Meet: A Model For Developing An Instruction Community, Jo Angela Oehrli, Peter Timmons

LOEX Conference Proceedings 2012

Many educators, newbies and veterans alike, find themselves facing the same problems as their students; there is an overabundance of helpful information available, and getting started can be overwhelming and disorienting. In an effort to fill the need for constant professional development in the area of instruction, the University of Michigan Libraries have created the Instructor College. The Instructor College has attempted several versions of an institutionally-curated repository of resources to support library instruction.

This year the Instructor College Steering Committee is working with a School of Information University Library Associate to create a more flexible repository for these materials. …

Performance Theory And Information Literacy: Using The Method To Establish Rapport With Students, Joshua Vossler, John Watts

LOEX Conference Proceedings 2012

First impressions matter. Instruction librarians face unfamiliar audiences who can be apathetic or even hostile to learning research skills. By deliberately establishing ourselves as competent and charming at the beginning of each session, librarians can create a positive learning environment in which apathy and hostility melt away. Stand-up comedy experts Carter and Ajaye, as well as acting theorists Strasberg and Adler have developed approaches for influencing first impressions. This lively workshop will draw from these two disciplines to provide a practical method that instruction librarians can employ to produce original and entertaining self-introductions.

The Course Guide: Creating A Culinary Masterpiece “To Go”, Judith Arnold, Veronica Bielat

LOEX Conference Proceedings 2012

Librarians operate in a multimodal environment, where Web 2.0 applications allow us to easily create multimedia materials for students, yet course guides frequently follow the print pathfinder model of merely listing resources. In this interactive workshop, attendees will ”cook up a recipe” to transform online course guides into dynamic 24/7 learning tools. Following discussion on best practices for visual design, review of course resource materials, and assignment analysis, we will apply design and pedagogical principles to create a framework, using the LibGuides model, for a dynamic course-specific guide that enhances learning as it supports the goals of a specific assignment.

From Craft To Industry: The Boat Builders Of Holland., Geoffrey Reynolds

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Review: The Wilderness Writings Of Howard Zahniser, Jillian M. Slater

Marian Library Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Gifts From The Heart, Susan E. Murray

Lake Union Herald

No abstract provided.

The Nonlinear Price Fynamics Of Us Equity Etfs, Gunduz Caginalp, Mark Desantis, Akin Sayrak

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

We investigate the price dynamics of large market-capitalization U.S. equity exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in order to uncover trader motivations and strategy. We show that prices of highly liquid ETFs can deviate significantly from their daily net asset values. By adjusting for changes in valuations, we report the impact of non-classical variables including price trend and volatility using data from 2008 to 2011. We find a cubic nonlinearity in the trend suggesting that traders are not only aware of the underreaction of others, but also self-optimize by anticipating others' reactions, and sell when the uptrend is stronger than usual.

Aging In Place In Marion: A Community Endeavor, Bernard A. Steinman, Hayley Gleason, Maryam Khaniyan, Ceara Somerville, Jan Mutchler

Gerontology Institute Publications

This report describes collaborative efforts undertaken by the Friends of the Marion Council on Aging (FMCOA) and the Center for Social and Demographic Research on Aging, within the McCormack Graduate School at the University of Massachusetts Boston (UMass Boston). Beginning in Fall 2014, these organizations partnered to conduct a study to investigate the needs, interests, preferences, and opinions of the Town’s older resident population, and the priorities of other stakeholders in the Town, with respect to living and aging in Marion.

In the earliest phase of the project, we met several times with members of the FMCOA to discuss and …

Communty Scholars Program - Jefferson County, Kentucky (Fa 735), Manuscripts & Folklife Archives

Folklife Archives Finding Aids

Finding Aid only for Folklife Archives Project 735. This collection contains information and documentation about the Community Scholars Program’s workshops held in Jefferson County, Kentucky during 2012. The collection almost entirely features projects completed by participants of the program.

Notes From The Director, The Mcnair Team

McNair Scholars Research Journal

No abstract provided.

Paid Family Leave, Rachel-Lyn Longo, Shanna Pearson-Merkowitz

Senior Honors Projects

Paid Family Leave policies are rare in the United States. Around the world, one hundred and eighty-two countries provide some form of paid maternity leave, and seventy countries also offer paid paternity leave. It is estimated that only 36 percent of U.S. employees have access to paid leave if they get sick, a policy that is almost universal in other developed countries, and only 12 percent of employees have access to paid family leave. Presently, just three states have implemented Paid Family Leave (PFL) to help offset the cost of time taken off of work to care for a newborn …

Seminar Report: Demonstrating The Value Of Information Literacy To Staff And Students, Philip Russell

Support services (Former ITT) - Conference Papers

In June 2014, the Institute of Technology Tallaght (ITT Dublin), South Dublin County, Republic of Ireland, held a one day national seminar on information literacy (IL) – ‘Demonstrating the Value of Information Literacy to Staff and Students’. This was one of the first IL seminars in Ireland that included speakers and representatives from all sectors: the educational sector (second and third level), community organisations, and industry. The event was funded by the recently formed National Forum for the Enhancement of Teaching and Learning in Higher Education in Ireland. The aim of the seminar was to help staff to develop the …

Preliminary 2014 Montana Nonresident Traveler Expenditures And Economic Contribution, Kara Grau

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

This report shows the 2014 preliminary economic contributions, expenditures, and average daily spending of nonresident visitors to Montana.

Are You Trying To Recruit Suicide Bombers Or Something?, Suzanne Weedon

Criminal Justice

Suicide terrorism has been extensively studied, although few researchers have been able to arrive at definitive conclusions. Often overlooked is the explanatory potential of evolutionary psychology. This study presents an evolutionary model of suicide terrorism using the principles of kin selection theory and inclusive fitness and offers several predictions about suicide terrorists. To test these predictions, an experimental design was constructed in which participants randomly received one of nine separate scenarios in which they were told that they were a member of a marginalized ethnic group and asked if they would be willing to commit a suicide bombing against their …

Keynote Address At The Executive Seminar On Exchange Rate Policy And Economic Management In Nigeria, Godwin I. Emefiele

Economic and Financial Review

This is keynote address delivered by the Governor of Central Bank, Godwin I. Emefiele, on the executive seminar on exchange rate policy and economic development- Is there a need for paradigm shift?

Exchange Rates, Capital Flows And Monetary Policy: Lessons From Emerging Market Economies, Biodun Adedipe

Economic and Financial Review

This paper proceeds in four sections as follows: section 1 is the introduction, section 2 gives a cursory summary of the literature on the 'trilemma-dilemma' that tend more towards the relevance of capital controls as an independent instrument in monetary policy irrespective of the exchange rate regime, while section 3 examines the evidence and effectiveness of the management of the process and relationships in emerging market economies (EME). Section 4 examines a country experience, while section 5 draws inferences for Nigeria and section 6 concludes with recommendations.