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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

Learning By Doing, Productivity, And Growth: New Evidence On The Link Between Micro And Macro Data, Brad Humphreys, Scott Schuh, Corey Williams Feb 2024

Learning By Doing, Productivity, And Growth: New Evidence On The Link Between Micro And Macro Data, Brad Humphreys, Scott Schuh, Corey Williams

Economics Faculty Working Papers Series

No abstract provided.

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High-Dimensional Iv Cointegration Estimation And Inference, Peter C. B. Phillips, Igor L. Kheifets Jan 2024

High-Dimensional Iv Cointegration Estimation And Inference, Peter C. B. Phillips, Igor L. Kheifets

Research Collection School Of Economics

A semiparametric triangular systems approach shows how multicointegrating linkages occur naturally in an I(1) cointegrated regression model when the long run error variance matrix in the system is singular. Under such singularity, cointegrated I(1) systems embody a multicointegrated structure that makes them useful in many empirical settings. Earlier work shows that such systems may be analyzed and estimated without appealing to the associated I(2) system but with suboptimal convergence rates and potential asymptotic bias. The present paper develops a robust approach to estimation and inference of such systems using high dimensional IV methods that have appealing asymptotic properties like those …

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New Asymptotics Applied To Functional Coefficient Regression And Climate Sensitivity Analysis, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Ying Wang Jun 2023

New Asymptotics Applied To Functional Coefficient Regression And Climate Sensitivity Analysis, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Ying Wang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A general asymptotic theory is established for sample cross moments of nonstationary time series, allowing for long range dependence and local unit roots. The theory provides a substantial extension of earlier results on nonparametric regression that include near-cointegrated nonparametric regression as well as spurious nonparametric regression. Many new models are covered by the limit theory, among which are functional coefficient regressions in which both regressors and the functional covariate are nonstationary. Simulations show finite sample performance matching well with the asymptotic theory and having broad relevance to applications, while revealing how dual nonstationarity in regressors and covariates raises sensitivity to …

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Fully Modified Least Squares Cointegrating Parameter Estimation In Multicointegrated Systems, Igor L. Kheifets, Peter C. B. Phillips Feb 2023

Fully Modified Least Squares Cointegrating Parameter Estimation In Multicointegrated Systems, Igor L. Kheifets, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Multicointegration is traditionally defined as a particular long run relationship among variables in a parametric vector autoregressive model that introduces additional cointegrating links between these variables and partial sums of the equilibrium errors. This paper departs from the parametric model, using a semiparametric formulation that reveals the explicit role that singularity of the long run conditional covariance matrix plays in determining multicointegration. The semiparametric framework has the advantage that short run dynamics do not need to be modeled and estimation by standard techniques such as fully modified least squares (FM-OLS) on the original system is straightforward. The paper derives FM-OLS …

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On Multicointegration, Peter C. B. Phillips, Igor Kheifets Oct 2021

On Multicointegration, Peter C. B. Phillips, Igor Kheifets

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A semiparametric triangular systems approach shows how multicointegration can occur naturally in an I(1) cointegrated regression model. The framework reveals the source of multicointegration as singularity of the long run error covariance matrix in an I(1) system, a feature noted but little explored in earlier work. Under such singularity, cointegrated I(1) systems embody a multicointegrated structure and may be analyzed and estimated without appealing to the associated I(2) system but with consequential asymptotic properties that can introduce asymptotic bias into conventional methods of cointegrating regression. The present paper shows how estimation of such systems may be accomplished under multicointegration without …

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Copula-Based Time Series With Filtered Nonstationarity, Xiaohong Chen, Zhijie Xiao, Bo Wang Jul 2020

Copula-Based Time Series With Filtered Nonstationarity, Xiaohong Chen, Zhijie Xiao, Bo Wang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Economic and financial time series data can exhibit nonstationary and nonlinear patterns simultaneously. This paper studies copula-based time series models that capture both patterns. We introduce a procedure where nonstationarity is removed via a filtration, and then the nonlinear temporal dependence in the filtered data is captured via a flexible Markov copula. We propose two estimators of the copula dependence parameters: the parametric (two-step) copula estimator where the marginal distribution of the filtered series is estimated parametrically; and the semiparametric (two-step) copula estimator where the marginal distribution is estimated via a rescaled empirical distribution of the filtered series. We show …

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Kernel-Based Inference In Time-Varying Coefficient Cointegrating Regression, Degui Li, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jiti Gao Apr 2020

Kernel-Based Inference In Time-Varying Coefficient Cointegrating Regression, Degui Li, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jiti Gao

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies nonlinear cointegrating models with time-varying coefficients and multiple nonstationary regressors using classic kernel smoothing methods to estimate the coefficient functions. Extending earlier work on nonstationary kernel regression to take account of practical features of the data, we allow the regressors to be cointegrated and to embody a mixture of stochastic and deterministic trends, complications which result in asymptotic degeneracy of the kernel-weighted signal matrix. To address these complications new local and global rotation techniques are introduced to transform the covariate space to accommodate multiple scenarios of induced degeneracy. Under regularity conditions we derive asymptotic results that differ …

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Fully Modified Least Squares For Multicointegrated Systems, Igor Kheifets, Peter C.B. Phillips Dec 2019

Fully Modified Least Squares For Multicointegrated Systems, Igor Kheifets, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Multicointegration is traditionally defined as a particular long run relationship among variables in a parametric vector autoregressive model that introduces links between these variables and partial sums of the equilibrium errors. This paper departs from the parametric model, using a semiparametric formulation that reveals the explicit role that singularity of the long run conditional covariance matrix plays in determining multicointegration. The semiparametric framework has the advantage that short run dynamics do not need to be modeled and estimation by standard techniques such as fully modified least squares (FM-OLS) on the original I(1) system is straightforward. The paper derives FM-OLS limit …

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Organic Wheat Prices And Premium Uncertainty: Can Cross Hedging And Forecasting Play A Role?, Tatiana Drugova, Veronica F. Pozo, Kynda R. Curtis, T. Randall Fortenbery Sep 2019

Organic Wheat Prices And Premium Uncertainty: Can Cross Hedging And Forecasting Play A Role?, Tatiana Drugova, Veronica F. Pozo, Kynda R. Curtis, T. Randall Fortenbery

Applied Economics Faculty Publications

We compare the volatility of organic wheat prices to that of conventional wheat prices using historical measures. To reduce uncertainty, we examine the possibility of cross hedging using conventional wheat futures and the ability of futures to forecast the organic premium. Results provide evidence that conventional futures can be used to cross hedge organic wheat price risk, but results depend on the method used to impute the missing values. We also find a long-run equilibrium relationship between organic wheat prices and conventional wheat futures prices. Finally, futures prices contain some information useful in predicting organic prices in the short run.

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The Micro-Foundations Of An Open Economy Money Demand: An Application To Central And Eastern European Countries, Claudiu T. Albulescu, Dominique Pepin, Stephen M. Miller Jan 2019

The Micro-Foundations Of An Open Economy Money Demand: An Application To Central And Eastern European Countries, Claudiu T. Albulescu, Dominique Pepin, Stephen M. Miller

Economics Faculty Publications

This paper investigates the effect of currency substitution between the currencies of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries and the euro on CEE money demand functions. In addition, we develop a model with microeconomic foundations, which identifies the difference between currency substitution and money demand sensitivity to exchange rate variations. More precisely, we posit that currency substitution relates to the money demand sensitivity to interest rate spreads between CEE countries and the euro area. Moreover, we show how the exchange rate affects money demand absent a currency substitution effect. This model applies to any country in which an international currency …

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Econometric Estimates Of Earth's Transient Climate Sensitivity, Peter C. B. Phillips, Thomas Leirvik, Trude Storelvmo Jan 2019

Econometric Estimates Of Earth's Transient Climate Sensitivity, Peter C. B. Phillips, Thomas Leirvik, Trude Storelvmo

Research Collection School Of Economics

How sensitive is Earth's climate to a given increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations? This long-standing question in climate science was recently analyzed by dynamic panel data methods using extensive spatio-temporal data of global surface temperatures, solar radiation, and GHG concentrations over the last half century to 2010 (Storelvmo et al, 2016). Those methods revealed that atmospheric aerosol effects masked approximately one-third of the continental warming due to increasing GHG concentrations over this period, thereby implying greater climate sensitivity to GHGs than previously thought. The present study provides regularity conditions and asymptotic theory justifying the use of time series …

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Dynamic Panel Modeling Of Climate Change, Peter C.B. Phillips Dec 2018

Dynamic Panel Modeling Of Climate Change, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We discuss some conceptual and practical issues that arise from the presence of global energy balance effects on station level adjustment mechanisms in dynamic panel regressions with climate data. The paper provides asymptotic analyses, observational data computations, and Monte Carlo simulations to assess the use of various estimation methodologies, including standard dynamic panel regression and cointegration techniques that have been used in earlier research. The findings reveal massive bias in system GMM estimation of the dynamic panel regression parameters, which arise from fixed effect heterogeneity across individual station level observations. Difference GMM and Within Group (WG) estimation have little bias …

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Testing The Easterlin Paradox: Results And Policy Implications, Edsel L. Beja Jr Jan 2018

Testing The Easterlin Paradox: Results And Policy Implications, Edsel L. Beja Jr

Economics Department Faculty Publications

The Easterlin Paradox is about the contradiction between an evidence of a short-run relationship between happiness and income growth and no evidence of a long-run relationship between happiness and income growth. The paper argues that there is confirmation of the Easterlin Paradox when the magnitude of the estimated long-run relationship is practically equal to zero notwithstanding its statistical significance. The findings of the paper support the Easterlin Paradox.

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Kernel-Based Inference In Time-Varying Coefficient Cointegrating Regression, Degui Li, Peter C.B. Phillips, Jiti Gao Sep 2017

Kernel-Based Inference In Time-Varying Coefficient Cointegrating Regression, Degui Li, Peter C.B. Phillips, Jiti Gao

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper studies nonlinear cointegrating models with time-varying coefficients and multiple nonstationary regressors using classic kernel smoothing methods to estimate the coefficient functions. Extending earlier work on nonstationary kernel regression to take account of practical features of the data, we allow the regressors to be cointegrated and to embody a mixture of stochastic and deterministic trends, complications which result in asymptotic degeneracy of the kernel-weighted signal matrix. To address these complications new \textsl{local} and \textsl{global rotation} techniques are introduced to transform the covariate space to accommodate multiple scenarios of induced degeneracy. Under certain regularity conditions we derive asymptotic results that …

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Econometric Measurement Of Earth's Transient Climate Sensitivity, Peter C.B. Phillips, Thomas Leirvik, Trude Storelvmo Mar 2017

Econometric Measurement Of Earth's Transient Climate Sensitivity, Peter C.B. Phillips, Thomas Leirvik, Trude Storelvmo

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

How sensitive is Earth’s climate to a given increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations? This long-standing and fundamental question in climate science was recently analyzed by dynamic panel data methods using extensive spatiotemporal data of global surface temperatures, solar radiation, and GHG concentrations over the last half century to 2010 (Storelvmo et al, 2016). These methods revealed that atmospheric aerosol effects masked approximately one-third of the continental warming due to increasing GHG concentrations over this period, thereby implying greater climate sensitivity to GHGs than previously thought. The present study provides asymptotic theory justifying the use of these methods when …

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Estimating Smooth Structural Change In Cointegration Models, Peter C. B. Phillips, Degui Li, Jiti Gao Jan 2017

Estimating Smooth Structural Change In Cointegration Models, Peter C. B. Phillips, Degui Li, Jiti Gao

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies nonlinear cointegration models in which the structural coefficients may evolve smoothly over time, and considers time-varying coefficient functions estimated by nonparametric kernel methods. It is shown that the usual asymptotic methods of kernel estimation completely break down in this setting when the functional coefficients are multivariate. The reason for this breakdown is a kernel induced degeneracy in the weighted signal matrix associated with the nonstationary regressors, a new phenomenon in the kernel regression literature. Some new techniques are developed to address the degeneracy and resolve the asymptotics, using a path-dependent local coordinate transformation to reorient coordinates and …

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Uniform Consistency Of Nonstationary Kernel-Weighted Sample Covariances For Nonparametric Regression, Degui Li, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jiti Gao Jun 2016

Uniform Consistency Of Nonstationary Kernel-Weighted Sample Covariances For Nonparametric Regression, Degui Li, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jiti Gao

Research Collection School Of Economics

We obtain uniform consistency results for kernel-weighted sample covariances in a nonstationary multiple regression framework that allows for both fixed design and random design coefficient variation. In the fixed design case these nonparametric sample covariances have different uniform asymptotic rates depending on direction, a result that differs fundamentally from the random design and stationary cases. The uniform asymptotic rates derived exceed the corresponding rates in the stationary case and confirm the existence of uniform super-consistency. The modelling framework and convergence rates allow for endogeneity and thus broaden the practical econometric import of these results. As a specific application, we establish …

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Disentangling Greenhouse Warming And Aerosol Cooling To Reveal Earth's Climate Sensitivity, T. Storelvmo, T. Leirvik, U. Lohmann, Peter C. B. Phillips, M. Wild Apr 2016

Disentangling Greenhouse Warming And Aerosol Cooling To Reveal Earth's Climate Sensitivity, T. Storelvmo, T. Leirvik, U. Lohmann, Peter C. B. Phillips, M. Wild

Research Collection School Of Economics

Earth's climate sensitivity has long been subject to heated debate and has spurred renewed interest after the latest IPCC assessment report suggested a downward adjustment of its most likely range(1). Recent observational studies have produced estimates of transient climate sensitivity, that is, the global mean surface temperature increase at the time of CO2 doubling, as low as 1.3 K (refs 2,3), well below the best estimate produced by global climate models (1.8 K). Here, we present an observation-based study of the time period 1964 to 2010, which does not rely on climate models. The method incorporates observations of greenhouse gas …

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Income Inequality And Household Debt: A Cointegration Test, Edmond Berisha, John Meszaros, Eric Olson Dec 2015

Income Inequality And Household Debt: A Cointegration Test, Edmond Berisha, John Meszaros, Eric Olson

Department of Economics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

This article employs the Johansen and Engle–Granger methodology to determine if there is a cointegrating relationship between household debt and income inequality as measured by Atkinson, Piketty and Saez (2011). The results suggest a cointegrating relationship between the two series. A vector error correction model is estimated showing that a shock to household debt has statistically significant effects on income inequality in the United States over the time period 1919–2009.

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Cointegration Of Matched Home Purchases And Rental Price Indexes: Evidence From Singapore, Badi H. Baltagi, Jing Li Nov 2015

Cointegration Of Matched Home Purchases And Rental Price Indexes: Evidence From Singapore, Badi H. Baltagi, Jing Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper exploits the homogeneity feature of the Singapore private residential condominium market and constructs matched home purchase price and rental price series using the repeated sales method. These matched series allow us to conduct time series analysis to examine the long-term present value relationship in the housing market. Three key findings are obtained. First, we fail to establish a cointegrating relationship between the home purchase price and rental price based on nationally estimated indexes. Second, area-specific indexes demonstrate strong cross-correlations, invalidating the use of first generation panel unit root tests that ignore these cross-correlations. Third, Pesaran's CIPS test indicates …

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Cointegration Of Matched Home Purchases And Rental Price Indexes –Evidence From Singapore, Badi Baltagi, Jing Li Oct 2015

Cointegration Of Matched Home Purchases And Rental Price Indexes –Evidence From Singapore, Badi Baltagi, Jing Li

Center for Policy Research

This paper exploits the homogeneity feature of the Singapore private residential condominium market and constructs matched home purchase price and rental price series using the repeated sales method. These matched series allow us to conduct time series analysis to examine the long-term present value relationship in the housing market. Three key findings are obtained. First, we fail to establish a cointegrating relationship between the home purchase price and rental price based on nationally estimated indexes. Second, area-specific indexes demonstrate strong cross-correlations, invalidating the use of first generation panel unit root tests that ignore these cross-correlations. Third, Pesaran’s CIPS test indicates …

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Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interaction: An Empirical Analysis In Egypt, Sahar M. Abdel-Haleim, Mohamed Hassan, Lobna M. Abdel-Latif Aug 2014

Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interaction: An Empirical Analysis In Egypt, Sahar M. Abdel-Haleim, Mohamed Hassan, Lobna M. Abdel-Latif

Business Administration

This paper examines the effect of the developments introduced since 2003 in Egypt on the nature of interaction of monetary and fiscal policies and the achievement of macroeconomic objectives. Utilizing the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) approach, the dynamic interaction of policies and their effects on macroeconomic aggregates are investigated. The findings support the success of the developments in eliminating the fiscal dominance. However, coordination between policies is still weak to achieve the macroeconomic stabilization objectives. The results also prove the conventional Keynesian effect of fiscal policy on real GDP. However, the fiscal multiplier is very small. Likewise, expansionary monetary policy …

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Further Evidence On The Spatio-Temporal Model Of House Prices In The United States, Badi H. Baltagi, Jing Li Apr 2014

Further Evidence On The Spatio-Temporal Model Of House Prices In The United States, Badi H. Baltagi, Jing Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

Holly, Pesaran, and Yamagata (Journal of Econometrics 2010; 158: 160–173) use a panel of 49 states over the period 1975–2003 to show that state-level real housing prices are driven by economic fundamentals, such as real per capita disposable income, as well as by common shocks, such as changes in interest rates, oil prices and technological change. They apply the common correlated effects estimator of Pesaran (Econometrica 2006; 74(4): 967–101), which takes into account spatial interactions that reflect both geographical proximity and unobserved common factors. This paper replicates their results using a panel of 381 metropolitan statistical areas observed over the …

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Uniform Consistency Of Nonstationary Kernel-Weighted Sample Covariances For Nonparametric Regression, Degui Li, Peter C.B. Phillips, Jiti Gao Dec 2013

Uniform Consistency Of Nonstationary Kernel-Weighted Sample Covariances For Nonparametric Regression, Degui Li, Peter C.B. Phillips, Jiti Gao

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We obtain uniform consistency results for kernel-weighted sample covariances in a nonstationary multiple regression framework that allows for both fixed design and random design coefficient variation. In the fixed design case these nonparametric sample covariances have different uniform convergence rates depending on direction, a result that differs fundamentally from the random design and stationary cases. The uniform convergence rates derived are faster than the corresponding rates in the stationary case and confirm the existence of uniform super-consistency. The modelling framework and convergence rates allow for endogeneity and thus broaden the practical econometric import of these results. As a specific application, …

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The Impact Of Research And Development On Economic Growth And Productivity In The Us States, Luisa Blanco, James Prieger, Ji Gu Nov 2013

The Impact Of Research And Development On Economic Growth And Productivity In The Us States, Luisa Blanco, James Prieger, Ji Gu

School of Public Policy Working Papers

We estimate the impact of R&D on TFP and output in the private sector at the state level in the US from 1963 to 2007. R&D has a large effect on both output and TFP at the state level in the long run. The R&D elasticity in a state averages 0.056 to 0.143, implying returns to state GDP from R&D spending of 83% to 213%. There are also positive R&D spillovers, with 77% of the total returns accruing to other states. The R&D elasticities are either stable or increase slightly after 1993. The effects of R&D are dependent on the …

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Functional Coefficient Nonstationary Regression, Jiti Gao, Peter C.B. Phillips Sep 2013

Functional Coefficient Nonstationary Regression, Jiti Gao, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper studies a general class of nonlinear varying coefficient time series models with possible nonstationarity in both the regressors and the varying coffiecient components. The model accommodates a cointegrating structure and allows for endogeneity with contemporaneous correlation among the regressors, the varying coefficient drivers, and the residuals. This framework allows for a mixture of stationary and non-stationary data and is well suited to a variety of models that are commonly used in applied econometric work. Nonparametric and semiparametric estimation methods are proposed to estimate the varying coefficient functions. The analytical findings reveal some important differences, including convergence rates, that …

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Size And Power Of Cointegration Tests With Non-Normal Garch Error Distributions, Chaiwat Kosapattarapim, Yan-Xia Lin, Michael Mccrae Jan 2013

Size And Power Of Cointegration Tests With Non-Normal Garch Error Distributions, Chaiwat Kosapattarapim, Yan-Xia Lin, Michael Mccrae

Faculty of Engineering and Information Sciences - Papers: Part A

Several tests for cointegration among non-stationary financial time series have been developed including the Dicky Fuller (1979) unit root tests, the Cointegration Regression Durbin-Watson test (1983), the Wild Bootstrap test (2003) and the Johansen likelihood ratio tests (1988). The Johensen's tests appeared to provide superior results when the tests were originally applied to situations where the cointegration errors were normally distributed. However, substantial empirical evidences show that financial time series tend to be nonnormal in their distribution which may, in turn, lead to non-normal GARCH type cointegration error distributions. The question addressed in this paper is whether the Johansen's tests …

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'Mainline' Telecommunications Infrastructure, Levels Of Development And Economic Growth: Evidence From A Panel Of Developing Countries, Chandana Chakraborty, Banani Nandi Jun 2011

'Mainline' Telecommunications Infrastructure, Levels Of Development And Economic Growth: Evidence From A Panel Of Developing Countries, Chandana Chakraborty, Banani Nandi

Department of Economics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

This paper assesses the growth impact of telecommunications infrastructure investment in developing countries by subjecting country-specific data on mainline tele-density and per capita growth to a Granger causality test within a panel cointegration framework. The results suggest that growth effects vary widely across country groupings reflecting different levels of development. Mainline tele-density and per capita growth strongly reinforce each other for countries that are relatively less developed. The reinforcement effect is even stronger for emerging countries that can be identified by their higher than average growth rates. In contrast, there is, at best, weak evidence of bi-directional causal links between …

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Asymptotic Theory For Zero Energy Functionals With Nonparametric Regression Applications, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips Apr 2011

Asymptotic Theory For Zero Energy Functionals With Nonparametric Regression Applications, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

A local limit theorem is given for the sample mean of a zero energy function of a nonstationary time series involving twin numerical sequences that pass to infinity. The result is applicable in certain nonparametric kernel density estimation and regression problems where the relevant quantities are functions of both sample size and bandwidth. An interesting outcome of the theory in nonparametric regression is that the linear term is eliminated from the asymptotic bias. In consequence and in contrast to the stationary case, the Nadaraya-Watson estimator has the same limit distribution (to the second order including bias) as the local linear …

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(Wp 2010-10) Assessing The Predictive Power Of Labor-Market Indicators Of Inflation, Farrokh Nourzad Sep 2010

(Wp 2010-10) Assessing The Predictive Power Of Labor-Market Indicators Of Inflation, Farrokh Nourzad

Economics Working Papers

This paper examines two different measures of wages as predicators of prices in a vector error-correction framework using quarterly data for the U.S. for the period from 1947.Q1 through 2008.Q1. Based on cointegration and a series of exogeneity tests, it is found that: 1) there is a stable, long-run relationship between the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (PCED) on the one hand and unit labor costs (ULC) and average earnings per unit of output (AHE) on the other; 2) ULC is weakly exogenous for both price indices while the two price indices are weakly exogenous …

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