Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Opportunity, Willingness, And The Diffusion Of War, Randolph M. Siverson, Harvey Starr

Faculty Publications

Using borders and alliances as indicators of opportunity and willingness, respectively, we test the relationship between the sea and the diffusion of war during the 1816-1965 period. The impact of borders and alliances, individually and in combination, on the growth of ongoing war through "infectious" diffusion is shown through the comparison of baseline cases to cases where states at peace were exposed to various "treatments" comprised of warring border nations or warring alliance partners. The findings indicate that the probability of war diffusion is substantially increased as opportunities and willingness increase, particularly when such geographic and political factors are combined. …