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Economics Department Working Papers

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Is There An Economic Case For The Olympic Games?, Chris Dempsey, Victor Matheson Jul 2019

Is There An Economic Case For The Olympic Games?, Chris Dempsey, Victor Matheson

Economics Department Working Papers

The Olympic Games are a major undertaking that promise both large costs and potentially large benefits to host cities. This paper lays out the potential economic benefits of hosting the Olympics and details how, in the vast majority of cases, these gains are unlikely to cover the costs of hosting the event. The ideas are then applied to the experience of Boston in its ultimately unsuccessful bid for the 2024 Summer Olympics.

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International Welfare Spillovers Of National Pension Schemes, James Staveley-O'Carroll, Olena Staveley-O'Carroll Jul 2019

International Welfare Spillovers Of National Pension Schemes, James Staveley-O'Carroll, Olena Staveley-O'Carroll

Economics Department Working Papers

We employ a two-country overlapping-generations model to explore the international dimension of household portfolio choices induced by the asymmetric provision of government-run pensions. We study the resulting patterns of risk-sharing and the corresponding welfare effects on both home and foreign agents. Introducing the defined benefits pay-as-you-go system at home increases the welfare of all other agents at the expense of the home workers and improves the degree of intergenerational risk sharing abroad. Conversely, a defined contributions system leads to welfare losses of both home cohorts accompanied by gains abroad, but does increase the extent of intergenerational risk sharing at home.

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Mass Atrocities And Their Prevention, Charles H. Anderton, Jurgen Brauer Jan 2019

Mass Atrocities And Their Prevention, Charles H. Anderton, Jurgen Brauer

Economics Department Working Papers

Counting conservatively, and ignoring physical injuries and mental trauma, data show about 100 million mass atrocity-related deaths since 1900. Occurring in war and in peacetime, and of enormous scale, severity, and brutality, they are geographically widespread, occur with surprising frequency, and can be long-lasting in their adverse effects on economic and human development, wellbeing, and wealth. As such, they are a major economic concern. This article synthesizes very diverse and widely dispersed theoretical and empirical literatures, addressing two gaps: a “mass atrocities gap” in the economics literature and an “economics gap” in mass atrocities scholarship. Our goals are, first, for …

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International Risk Sharing In Overlapping Generations Models, James Staveley-O'Carroll, Olena M. Staveley-O'Carroll Dec 2018

International Risk Sharing In Overlapping Generations Models, James Staveley-O'Carroll, Olena M. Staveley-O'Carroll

Economics Department Working Papers

We present a solution to the Backus-Smith puzzle that, instead of relying on extreme parameter values or complex modeling assumptions, simply switches the framework from infinitely lived agents to overlapping generations. Young agents face non-diversifiable wage risk that leads to a low degree of risk sharing within each country. Subsequently, international price movements are not sufficient to achieve the high consumption-real exchange rate correlation produced in standard infinitely lived agent DSGE models.

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Professional Sports, Hurricane Katrina, And The Economic Redevelopment Of New Orleans: Revisited, Victor Matheson, Robert Baade, Callan Henderschott Dec 2018

Professional Sports, Hurricane Katrina, And The Economic Redevelopment Of New Orleans: Revisited, Victor Matheson, Robert Baade, Callan Henderschott

Economics Department Working Papers

Hurricane Katrina devastated the city of New Orleans in late August 2005, resulting in damage to much of the city’s sports infrastructure and the temporary departure of both of New Orleans’ major league professional sports teams, the National Football League Saints and the National Basketball Association Hornets. The city spent over $500 million restoring the sports infrastructure in New Orleans, and both teams subsequently returned to the city. In addition, New Orleans has since hosted numerous mega-sporting events including the Super Bowl, NCAA Men’s Basketball Final Four, and several college football national championships. This paper examines the economic impact of …

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The Rise And Fall (And Rise And Fall) Of The Olympic Games As An Economic Driver, Victor Matheson Dec 2018

The Rise And Fall (And Rise And Fall) Of The Olympic Games As An Economic Driver, Victor Matheson

Economics Department Working Papers

This paper traces the economic history of major sporting events focusing on the Olympics. Historically, the Olympic Games as well as other major sporting events have been considered costly events that place a burden on host cities. Only in relatively recent years, coinciding with the massive increases in the cost of hosting these events, have event organizers begun to claim that these events bring with them large economic benefits.

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Point/Counterpoint: Is There A Case For Subsidizing Sports Stadiums?, Victor Matheson Dec 2018

Point/Counterpoint: Is There A Case For Subsidizing Sports Stadiums?, Victor Matheson

Economics Department Working Papers

In recent decades, governments have committed enormous public resources to subsidize construction of new stadiums, and the dollar value of taxpayer contributions for these subsidies continues to climb. Spending of taxpayer dollars includes both direct subsidies from state and local governments, as well as indirect subsidies from the use of tax-exempt bonds to finance construction. In granting stadium subsidies, governments claim that the stadiums are a public good that attracts tourists and businesses, thereby generating increased spending and job creation—benefits that flow to the community rather than to team owners. But do such benefits exist, and are they large enough …

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Nonlinearities In The Real Exchange Rates: New Evidence From Developed And Developing Countries, Yamin S. Ahmad, Ming Chien Lo, Olena M. Staveley-O'Carroll Oct 2018

Nonlinearities In The Real Exchange Rates: New Evidence From Developed And Developing Countries, Yamin S. Ahmad, Ming Chien Lo, Olena M. Staveley-O'Carroll

Economics Department Working Papers

This paper investigates nonlinearities in the dynamics of real exchange rates. We use Monte Carlo simulations to establish the size properties of the Teräsvirta-Anderson (1992) and the Teräsvirta (1994) test, when the dynamics of the real exchange rate is influenced by an exogenous process. In addition, we examine the modification proposed by Ahmad, Lo and Mykhaylova (2013; Journal of International Economics) to show that the modified nonlinearity test performs much better than the original in both Monte Carlo exercises and in the actual data on 1431 bilateral real exchange rate series. Finally, we investigate the dynamics of the real exchange …

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The Onset, Spread, And Prevention Of Mass Atrocities: Perspectives From Network Models, Charles H. Anderton, Jurgen Brauer Sep 2018

The Onset, Spread, And Prevention Of Mass Atrocities: Perspectives From Network Models, Charles H. Anderton, Jurgen Brauer

Economics Department Working Papers

No abstract provided.

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Toxic Effects Of Lead Disposal In Water: An Analysis Of Tri Facility Releases, Patrick Koval Aug 2018

Toxic Effects Of Lead Disposal In Water: An Analysis Of Tri Facility Releases, Patrick Koval

Economics Department Working Papers

Using county-level TRI data from 2003 to 2016, I find evidence that lead emissions in water adversely affect birth weights within the emitting county, especially with respect to the percentage of births considered low birth weight within that county (less than 2,500 grams). I find that a one percent increase in lead emissions per square mile increases the proportion of low birth weights by 0.27 percentage points. For a county with an average number of births in a particular year, this one percent increase in lead per square mile translates to an additional $475,000 in hospitalization costs from complications with …

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The Persistent Labor Market Effects Of A Criminal Conviction And “Ban The Box” Reforms, Joshua M. Congdon-Hohman Jul 2018

The Persistent Labor Market Effects Of A Criminal Conviction And “Ban The Box” Reforms, Joshua M. Congdon-Hohman

Economics Department Working Papers

Past literature has established that individuals who have been incarcerated face difficulties reentering the work force following their release, while finding and keeping a job can significantly reduce recidivism amongst individuals with prior criminal convictions. In attempt to improve employment outcomes, many local and state governments in the United States have initiated "Ban the Box" regulations. These initiatives delay inquiries regarding criminal history on job applications. Versions of ban the box regulations covering public sector employment have been enacted in 31 states and more than 150 local governments. Ban the box laws have included private employers in eleven states and …

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The Economic Impact Of Olympic Games: Effects Of Host Country Announcements On Stock Market Returns, Bryan Engelhardt, Victor Matheson, Alex Yen, Max Chisholm Jul 2018

The Economic Impact Of Olympic Games: Effects Of Host Country Announcements On Stock Market Returns, Bryan Engelhardt, Victor Matheson, Alex Yen, Max Chisholm

Economics Department Working Papers

Roughly seven years before an Olympic Games, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) accepts bids from countries to host an Olympics. Subsequently, the IOC determines and announces to the world who has won (and lost) the right to host. Contrary to prior evidence, we find the announcements do not affect the bidding countries’ stock markets. We complement prior studies by including additional, more recent, years of announcements, by investigating whether there are effects prior to the announcement, and by testing for an effect both parametrically and non-parametrically.

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The Economics Of The World Cup, Victor Matheson May 2018

The Economics Of The World Cup, Victor Matheson

Economics Department Working Papers

The quadrennial World Cup is perhaps the world’s most popular sporting event with millions of live fans and a worldwide television audience in the billions. It is also one of the most costly events to host with recent hosts countries such as Brazil and Russia spending around $12 billion putting on the tournament. This paper examines the costs and the benefits of hosting the World Cup with a focus on historical data and past economic impact studies.

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The Effects Of Mass Shootings On Gun Sales, Elliot Chau May 2018

The Effects Of Mass Shootings On Gun Sales, Elliot Chau

Economics Department Working Papers

The United States experiences mass shootings which cause the American public to respond in various ways. One measurable aspect is the demand for firearms following a shooting. Using the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System to proxy firearm sales, I create an ARMA model that estimates which characteristic of a mass shooting dictates the largest firearms purchase response. I find that President Obama’s tenure caused 210,000 more firearms sales per month. I also find that if the mass shooter was an internationally influenced terrorist, firearms sales increased by about 420,000 for the two-month period.

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Can Risk Models Extract Inflation Expectations From Financial Market Data? Evidence From The Inflation Protected Securities Of Six Countries, Arben Kita, Daniel L. Tortorice Apr 2018

Can Risk Models Extract Inflation Expectations From Financial Market Data? Evidence From The Inflation Protected Securities Of Six Countries, Arben Kita, Daniel L. Tortorice

Economics Department Working Papers

We consider an arbitrage strategy which exactly replicates the cash of a sovereign inflation-indexed bond using inflation swaps and nominal sovereign bonds. The strategy reveals a violation of the law of one price in the G7 countries which is largest for the eurozone. Testing the strategy's exposure to deflation, volatility, liquidity, economic and policy risks suggests that the observed pricing differential is an economic tail risk premium which is more pronounced in the eurozone. We conclude that inflation expectations implied by models that view this pricing differential as compensation for risk are likely to be accurate and useful for policy-making.

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Corruption In The Bidding, Construction, And Organization Of Mega-Events: An Analysis Of The Olympics And World Cup, Victor Matheson, Daniel Schwab, Patrick Koval Aug 2017

Corruption In The Bidding, Construction, And Organization Of Mega-Events: An Analysis Of The Olympics And World Cup, Victor Matheson, Daniel Schwab, Patrick Koval

Economics Department Working Papers

In the processes required to host a sports mega-event, corruption has been prevalent on numerous occasions, leading to unnecessary costs becoming the ultimate responsibility of a host government’s taxpayers. Little progress has been made in the prevention of such behavior. In this chapter, we examine the history of corruption in sports mega-events, namely the Olympics and World Cup, to identify parts of the bidding and preparation processes that are vulnerable to illicit behavior. We propose potential solutions to be implemented at various levels in order to prevent further corruption.

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Hidden Subsidies And The Public Ownership Of Sports Facilities: The Case Of Levi’S Stadium In Santa Clara, Robert Baumann, Victor Matheson, Debra O'Connor Aug 2017

Hidden Subsidies And The Public Ownership Of Sports Facilities: The Case Of Levi’S Stadium In Santa Clara, Robert Baumann, Victor Matheson, Debra O'Connor

Economics Department Working Papers

Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California is an example of a private financing / public ownership arrangement. While the stadium’s construction resulted in no direct tax increases, this ownership arrangement allows the San Francisco 49ers to avoid many types of taxes on the income generated from Levi’s Stadium. We estimate the total tax savings to the 49ers at between $106 and $213 million over the first 20 years of Levi’s Stadium compared with a privately financed and owned option. We argue that tax savings inherent in private financing / public ownership arrangements represent indirect and hidden subsidies.

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Mega-Events And Tourism: The Case Of Brazil, Robert Baumann, Victor Matheson Aug 2017

Mega-Events And Tourism: The Case Of Brazil, Robert Baumann, Victor Matheson

Economics Department Working Papers

Mega-sporting events such as the FIFA World Cup are expensive affairs. Host countries often justify the spending required to stage these events by predicting that mega-events will draw large numbers of tourists. This paper analyzes monthly foreign tourist arrivals into Brazil between 2003 and 2015 and finds that the 2014 FIFA World Cup increased foreign tourism by roughly one million visitors. This number far exceeded expectations, but we show that roughly a quarter of this increase in foreign tourism was caused by the fortuitous advancement of Argentina’s national team, and potential hosts should not count on the event to consistently …

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Beyond Moneyball: Changing Compensation In Mlb, Joshua Congdon-Hohman, Jonathan A. Lanning May 2017

Beyond Moneyball: Changing Compensation In Mlb, Joshua Congdon-Hohman, Jonathan A. Lanning

Economics Department Working Papers

This study examines the changes in player compensation in Major League Baseball during the last three decades. Specifically, we examine the extent to which recently documented changes in players’ compensation structure based on certain types of productivity fits in with the longer term trends in compensation, and identify the value of specific output activities in different time periods. We examine free agent contracts in three-year periods across three decades and find changes to which players’ performance measures are significantly rewarded in free agency. We find evidence that the compensation strategies of baseball teams increased the rewards to “power” statistics like …

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Unconventional Wisdom: Estimating The Economic Impact Of The Democratic And Republican National Political Conventions, Victor Matheson, Lauren R. Heller, E. Frank Stephenson May 2017

Unconventional Wisdom: Estimating The Economic Impact Of The Democratic And Republican National Political Conventions, Victor Matheson, Lauren R. Heller, E. Frank Stephenson

Economics Department Working Papers

We use daily hotel occupancy, price, and revenue data to analyze the economic impact of the 2008 and 2012 Democratic and Republican National Conventions. We find that political conventions generate approximately 29,000 room nights of lodging, though this figure is offset by lower hotel occupancy during the week before and, to a lesser extent, after conventions. Conventions increase hotel revenue by approximately $20 million on average, a figure which suggests that host cities’ claims of economic impacts of $150 million or more may be implausible.

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What If Piketty Is Right? Real Economic Costs Of Rising Income Inequality, Thomas Gottschang Dec 2016

What If Piketty Is Right? Real Economic Costs Of Rising Income Inequality, Thomas Gottschang

Economics Department Working Papers

Thomas Piketty's analysis of income and wealth distribution, Capital in the Twenty-First Century, argues that wealth has become increasingly concentrated in the hands of the most affluent, while lower and middle class real incomes have stagnated; he warns that this trend could have “potentially terrifying” results, possibly even violent revolution. This article presents evidence that growing inequality weakens the entire economy by eroding the purchasing power of the vast majority of the population and the education of the labor force, while increasing its vulnerability to future collapses of the financial markets. It agrees with Piketty's concern that the capitalist market …

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An Event Study Of Patent Verdicts And Judicial Leakage, Bryan Engelhardt, Zachary Fernandes Jul 2016

An Event Study Of Patent Verdicts And Judicial Leakage, Bryan Engelhardt, Zachary Fernandes

Economics Department Working Papers

To check for the impartiality of the United States judicial system, we investigate whether judicial decisions are leaked prior to their public release. Utilizing an event study methodology, we test for leaked information by analyzing the effect of patent infringement verdicts on the stock prices of the firms involved before and after the public release of the verdict. We find evidence that at least some of the decisions are leaked prior to their public release.

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Economic Windfalls And The Affordable Care Act: A Policy Proposal, Joshua Congdon-Hohman, Victor Matheson Jul 2016

Economic Windfalls And The Affordable Care Act: A Policy Proposal, Joshua Congdon-Hohman, Victor Matheson

Economics Department Working Papers

This paper identifies a major issue with windfall payments under either possible interpretation of the ACA as it currently stands. Several alternatives are proposed that would eliminate the windfalls. We advocate the establishment of a tort award funded “Federal Stabilization Fund” to improve the economic efficiency of future health care awards in the age of the Affordable Care Act

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Exchange Rate Targeting In The Presence Of Foreign Debt Obligations, James Staveley-O'Carroll, Olena M. Staveley-O'Carroll Jul 2016

Exchange Rate Targeting In The Presence Of Foreign Debt Obligations, James Staveley-O'Carroll, Olena M. Staveley-O'Carroll

Economics Department Working Papers

We study the impact of foreign debt on the trade-off between the three open economy objectives of a central bank - international risk sharing, the need to facilitate expenditure-switching, and the incentive to tilt international prices to lower the labor effort of domestic households - in a two-country DSGE model with incomplete asset markets and deviations from the purchasing power parity. We find that at low debt levels, a Taylor rule outperforms simple targeting rules. However, the central bank can improve welfare by up to 0.25 percent of consumption via an exchange rate peg when debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 100 percent.

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Monopoly Power With A Short Selling Constraint, Robert Baumann, Bryan Engelhardt, David L. Fuller Apr 2016

Monopoly Power With A Short Selling Constraint, Robert Baumann, Bryan Engelhardt, David L. Fuller

Economics Department Working Papers

We show if a speculator can benefit from reducing a monopoly’s rents through short selling, then a speculator may take a short position in a monopoly, overcome the barriers to entry, and compete with the monopoly. The competition drives down the monopoly’s rents, and as a result, the short position becomes profitable and covers the cost of entry. If entry is impossible, then the speculator may coordinate and pay the firm’s counter-parties to stop trading with the monopoly rather than entering. Either way, increasing a speculator’s ability to short a firm’s rents results in a constraint on the monopoly and …

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Going For The Gold: The Economics Of The Olympics, Victor Matheson, Robert Baade Feb 2016

Going For The Gold: The Economics Of The Olympics, Victor Matheson, Robert Baade

Economics Department Working Papers

In this paper, we explore the costs and benefits of hosting the Olympic Games. On the cost side, there are three major categories: general infrastructure such as transportation and housing to accommodate athletes and fans; specific sports infrastructure required for competition venues; and operational costs, including general administration as well as the opening and closing ceremony and security. Three major categories of benefits also exist: the short-run benefits of tourist spending during the Games; the long-run benefits or the "Olympic legacy" which might include improvements in infrastructure and increased trade, foreign investment, or tourism after the Games; and intangible benefits …

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Impact Of Pension System Structure On International Financial Capital Allocation, Olena M. Staveley-O'Carroll, James Stavely-O'Carroll Jan 2016

Impact Of Pension System Structure On International Financial Capital Allocation, Olena M. Staveley-O'Carroll, James Stavely-O'Carroll

Economics Department Working Papers

Government pension systems vary widely from country to country. Evidence from a cross-section of 110 countries indicates that structural differences in public pension programs are related to reallocation of financial capital around the world. More specifically, we find that greater amounts of pension spending are associated with overall net international indebtedness and a net portfolio characterized by equity assets and debt liabilities. We present a two-country overlapping-generations model that can replicate these empirical regularities and elucidate the link between the structure of pension benefits and the resulting portfolio choices of economic agents. In the country with state-guaranteed pension benefits, workers …

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Exploring International Differences In Inflation Dynamics, Yamin Ahmad, Olena Mykhaylova Sep 2015

Exploring International Differences In Inflation Dynamics, Yamin Ahmad, Olena Mykhaylova

Economics Department Working Papers

Standard closed-economy DSGE models have difficulty replicating the persistence of inflation. We use a multicountry dataset to establish some empirical regularities on persistence and volatility of aggregate consumer prices for 161 countries. We find persistence to be high (low) on average for developed (developing) countries, while volatility is low (high) on average for the same country groupings. We then employ a two-country DSGE framework to investigate the extent to which structural open economy features, such as incomplete exchange rate pass-through, the existence of nontraded goods, and international financial market incompleteness, can help in replicating the persistence and volatility of consumer …

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Genocide: Perspectives From The Social Sciences, Charles Anderton Sep 2015

Genocide: Perspectives From The Social Sciences, Charles Anderton

Economics Department Working Papers

This article surveys risk factors for genocide and genocide prevention from the perspectives of four social science disciplines: sociology, social psychology, political science, and economics. Each discipline brings a valuable set of concepts and tools to bear in genocide research. Moreover, fruitful multi- and inter-disciplinary collaboration across the four disciplines (and other fields) is shedding new insights into why genocide has have been such a recurring tragedy in human affairs and how such atrocities can be prevented.

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Potential Effects Of The Affordable Care Act On Loss Calculations, Joshua Congdon-Hohman, Victor Matheson Sep 2015

Potential Effects Of The Affordable Care Act On Loss Calculations, Joshua Congdon-Hohman, Victor Matheson

Economics Department Working Papers

This paper examines how the Affordable Care Act might affect the analysis of future care costs in medical malpractice, product or accident liability, or workplace injury cases. Prior to the ACA, it was reasonable to presume that a great deal of a victim’s future health care costs would be paid for out-of-pocket as there was little guarantee that the plaintiff would have access to affordable insurance. Since January 2014, however, a plaintiff can obtain insurance that will cover a significant portion of any future medical costs. This paper examines the basic structure of the ACA, how it has affected health …

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