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Articles 931 - 960 of 2930
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Competing For Customers In A Social Network (R), Pradeep Dubey, Rahul Garg, Bernard De Meyer
Competing For Customers In A Social Network (R), Pradeep Dubey, Rahul Garg, Bernard De Meyer
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
There are many situations in which a customer’s proclivity to buy the product of any firm depends not only on the classical attributes of the product such as its price and quality, but also on who else is buying the same product. Under quite general circumstances, it turns out that customers’ influence on each other dynamically converges to a steady state. Thus we can model these situations as games in which firms compete for customers located in a “social network.” A canonical example is provided by competition for advertisement on the web. Nash Equilibrium (NE) in pure strategies exist in …
The Allocation Of A Prize (R), Pradeep Dubey, Siddhartha Sahi
The Allocation Of A Prize (R), Pradeep Dubey, Siddhartha Sahi
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Consider agents who undertake costly effort to produce stochastic outputs observable by a principal. The principal can award a prize deterministically to the agent with the highest output, or to all of them with probabilities that are proportional to their outputs. We show that, if there is sufficient diversity in agents’ skills relative to the noise on output, then the proportional prize will, in a precise sense, elicit more output on average, than the deterministic prize. Indeed, assuming agents know each others’ skills (the complete information case), this result holds when any Nash equilibrium selection, under the proportional prize, is …
Multi-Dimensional Mechanism Design With Limited Information, Dirk Bergemann, Ji Shen, Yun Xu, Edmund M. Yeh
Multi-Dimensional Mechanism Design With Limited Information, Dirk Bergemann, Ji Shen, Yun Xu, Edmund M. Yeh
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We analyze a nonlinear pricing model with limited information. Each buyer can purchase a large variety, d , of goods. His preference for each good is represented by a scalar and his preference over d goods is represented by a d -dimensional vector. The type space of each buyer is given by a compact subset of R d + with a continuum of possible types. By contrast, the seller is limited to offer a finite number M of d -dimensional choices. We provide necessary conditions that the optimal finite menu of the social welfare maximizing problem has to satisfy. We …
Kantian Optimization, Social Ethos, And Pareto Efficiency, John E. Roemer
Kantian Optimization, Social Ethos, And Pareto Efficiency, John E. Roemer
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Although evidence accrues in biology, anthropology and experimental economics that homo sapiens is a cooperative species, the reigning assumption in economic theory is that individuals optimize in an autarkic manner (as in Nash and Walrasian equilibrium). I here postulate an interdependent kind of optimizing behavior, called Kantian. It is shown that in simple economic models, when there are negative externalities (such as congestion effects from use of a commonly owned resource) or positive externalities (such as a social ethos reflected in individuals’ preferences), Kantian equilibria dominate Nash-Walras equilibria in terms of efficiency. While economists schooled in Nash equilibrium may view …
Does Reducing Spatial Differentiation Increase Product Differentiation? Effects Of Zoning On Retail Entry And Format Variety, Sumon Datta, K. Sudhir
Does Reducing Spatial Differentiation Increase Product Differentiation? Effects Of Zoning On Retail Entry And Format Variety, Sumon Datta, K. Sudhir
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper investigates the impact of spatial zoning restrictions on retail market outcomes. We estimate a structural model of entry, location and format choice across a large number of markets in the presence of zoning restrictions. The paper contributes to the literature in three ways: First, the paper demonstrates that the omission of zoning restrictions in the extant literature on entry and location choice leads to biased estimates of the factors affecting market potential and competitive intensity. Second, the cross-market variations in zoning regulations helps us test and provide evidence for the theory that constraints on spatial differentiation will lead …
Getting At Systemic Risk Via An Agent-Based Model Of The Housing Market, John Geanakoplos, Robert Axtell, J. Doyne Farmer, Peter Howitt, Benjamin Conlee, Jonathan Goldstein, Matthew Hendrey
Getting At Systemic Risk Via An Agent-Based Model Of The Housing Market, John Geanakoplos, Robert Axtell, J. Doyne Farmer, Peter Howitt, Benjamin Conlee, Jonathan Goldstein, Matthew Hendrey
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Systemic risk must include the housing market, though economists have not generally focused on it. We begin construction of an agent-based model of the housing market with individual data from Washington, DC. Twenty years of success with agent-based models of mortgage prepayments give us hope that such a model could be useful. Preliminary analysis suggests that the housing boom and bust of 1997-2007 was due in large part to changes in leverage rather than interest rates.
Bounded Rationality And Limited Datasets: Testable Implications, Identification, And Out-Of-Sample Prediction, Geoffroy De Clippel, Kareen Rozen
Bounded Rationality And Limited Datasets: Testable Implications, Identification, And Out-Of-Sample Prediction, Geoffroy De Clippel, Kareen Rozen
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Theories of bounded rationality are typically characterized over an exhaustive data set. How does one tell whether observed choices are consistent with a theory if the data is incomplete? How can out-of-sample predictions be made? What can be identified about preferences? This paper aims to operationalize some leading bounded rationality theories when the available data is limited, as is the case in most practical settings. We also point out that the recent bounded rationality literature has overlooked a methodological pitfall that can lead to ‘false positives’ and ‘empty’ out-of-sample predictions when testing choice theories with limited data.
Kantian Optimization: An Approach To Cooperative Behavior, John E. Roemer
Kantian Optimization: An Approach To Cooperative Behavior, John E. Roemer
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Although evidence accrues in biology, anthropology and experimental economics that homo sapiens is a cooperative species, the reigning assumption in economic theory is that individuals optimize in an autarkic manner (as in Nash and Walrasian equilibrium). I here postulate a cooperative kind of optimizing behavior, called Kantian. It is shown that in simple economic models, when there are negative externalities (such as congestion effects from use of a commonly owned resource) or positive externalities (such as a social ethos reflected in individuals’ preferences), Kantian equilibria dominate Nash-Walras equilibria in terms of efficiency. While economists schooled in Nash equilibrium may view …
Mandate-Based Health Reform And The Labor Market: Evidence From The Massachusetts Reform, Jonathan T. Kolstad, Amanda E. Kowalski
Mandate-Based Health Reform And The Labor Market: Evidence From The Massachusetts Reform, Jonathan T. Kolstad, Amanda E. Kowalski
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We model the labor market impact of the three key provisions of the recent Massachusetts and national “mandate-based” health reforms: individual and employer mandates and expansions in publicly-subsidized coverage. Using our model, we characterize the compensating differential for employer-sponsored health insurance (ESHI) — the causal change in wages associated with gaining ESHI. We also characterize the welfare impact of the labor market distortion induced by health reform. We show that the welfare impact depends on a small number of sufficient statistics” that can be recovered from labor market outcomes. Relying on the reform implemented in Massachusetts in 2006, we estimate …
Short Run Needs And Long Term Goals: A Dynamic Model Of Thirst Management, Guofang Huang, Ahmed Khwaja, K. Sudhir
Short Run Needs And Long Term Goals: A Dynamic Model Of Thirst Management, Guofang Huang, Ahmed Khwaja, K. Sudhir
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Beverage consumption occurs many times a day in response to a variety of needs that change throughout the day. In making their choices, consumers self-regulate their consumption by managing short run needs (e.g., hydration and mood pickup) with long-term goals (e.g., health). Using unique intra-day beverage consumption, activity and psychological needs data, we develop and estimate a model of high frequency consumption choices that accounts for both intra-day changes in short run needs and individual level unobserved heterogeneity in the degree of self-regulation. A novel feature of the model is that it allows for dynamics of consumption and stockpiling at …
Improved Estimates Of Using Luminosity As A Proxy For Economic Statistics: New Results And Estimates Of Precision, William D. Nordhaus, Xi Chen
Improved Estimates Of Using Luminosity As A Proxy For Economic Statistics: New Results And Estimates Of Precision, William D. Nordhaus, Xi Chen
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Previous work has analyzed whether luminosity data contain useful information for estimating economic output and concluded that there was significant promise for regions with poor quality economic statistics. The present paper examines alternative measures of the precision of the estimates using bootstrap and prior estimates of the errors for both the luminosity quality and the national accounts quality. Based on the new results, we conclude: First, for countries with high quality systems, there is no reason to use luminosity data as a supplement to standard data in any context where standard data are available. Second, we find that there is …
Sieve Inference On Semi-Nonparametric Time Series Models, Xiaohong Chen, Zhipeng Liao, Yixiao Sun
Sieve Inference On Semi-Nonparametric Time Series Models, Xiaohong Chen, Zhipeng Liao, Yixiao Sun
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The method of sieves has been widely used in estimating semiparametric and nonparametric models. In this paper, we first provide a general theory on the asymptotic normality of plug-in sieve M estimators of possibly irregular functionals of semi/nonparametric time series models. Next, we establish a surprising result that the asymptotic variances of plug-in sieve M estimators of irregular (i.e., slower than root-T estimable) functionals do not depend on temporal dependence. Nevertheless, ignoring the temporal dependence in small samples may not lead to accurate inference. We then propose an easy-to-compute and more accurate inference procedure based on a “pre-asymptotic” sieve variance …
On The Limit Equilibrium Payoff Set In Repeated And Stochastic Games, Johannes Hörner, Satoru Takahashi, Nicolas Vieille
On The Limit Equilibrium Payoff Set In Repeated And Stochastic Games, Johannes Hörner, Satoru Takahashi, Nicolas Vieille
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper provides a dual characterization of the limit set of perfect public equilibrium payoffs in stochastic games (in particular, repeated games) as the discount factor tends to one. As a first corollary, the folk theorems of Fudenberg, Levine and Maskin (1994), Kandori and Matsushima (1998) and Hörner, Sugaya, Takahashi and Vieille (2011) obtain. As a second corollary, in the context of repeated games, it follows that this limit set of payoffs is a polytope (a bounded polyhedron) when attention is restricted to equilibria in pure strategies. We provide a two-player game in which this limit set is not a …
Demand Externalities From Co-Location, Boudhayan Sen, Jiwoong Shin, K. Sudhir
Demand Externalities From Co-Location, Boudhayan Sen, Jiwoong Shin, K. Sudhir
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We illustrate an approach to measure demand externalities from co-location by estimating household level changes in grocery spending at a supermarket among households that also buy gas at a co-located gas station, relative to those who do not. Controlling for observable and unobserved selection in the use of gas station, we find significant demand externalities; on average a household that buys gas has 7.7% to 9.3% increase in spending on groceries. Accounting for differences in gross margins, the profit from the grocery spillovers is 130% to 150% the profit from gasoline sales. The spillovers are moderated by store loyalty, with …
Specification Sensitivity In Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing For Explosive Behavior, Peter C.B. Phillips, Shu-Ping Shi, Jun Yu
Specification Sensitivity In Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing For Explosive Behavior, Peter C.B. Phillips, Shu-Ping Shi, Jun Yu
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Right-tailed unit root tests have proved promising for detecting exuberance in economic and financial activities. Like left-tailed tests, the limit theory and test performance are sensitive to the null hypothesis and the model specification used in parameter estimation. This paper aims to provide some empirical guidelines for the practical implementation of right-tailed unit root tests, focussing on the sup ADF test of Phillips, Wu and Yu (2011), which implements a right-tailed ADF test repeatedly on a sequence of forward sample recursions. We analyze and compare the limit theory of the sup ADF test under different hypotheses and model specifications. The …
Health Reform, Health Insurance, And Selection: Estimating Selection Into Health Insurance Using The Massachusetts Health Reform, Martin B. Hackmann, Jonathan T. Kolstad, Amanda E. Kowalski
Health Reform, Health Insurance, And Selection: Estimating Selection Into Health Insurance Using The Massachusetts Health Reform, Martin B. Hackmann, Jonathan T. Kolstad, Amanda E. Kowalski
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We implement an empirical test for selection into health insurance using changes in coverage induced by the introduction of mandated health insurance in Massachusetts. Our test examines changes in the cost of the newly insured relative to those who were insured prior to the reform. We find that counties with larger increases in insurance coverage over the reform period face the smallest increase in average hospital costs for the insured population, consistent with adverse selection into insurance before the reform. Additional results, incorporating cross-state variation and data on health measures, provide further evidence for adverse selection.
Discounted Stochastic Games With Voluntary Transfers, Sebastian Kranz
Discounted Stochastic Games With Voluntary Transfers, Sebastian Kranz
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper studies discounted stochastic games perfect or imperfect public monitoring and the opportunity to conduct voluntary monetary transfers. We show that for all discount factors every public perfect equilibrium payoff can be implemented with a simple class of equilibria that have a stationary structure on the equilibrium path and optimal penal codes with a stick and carrot structure. We develop algorithms that exactly compute or approximate the set of equilibrium payoffs and find simple equilibria that implement these payoffs.
Vars With Mixed Roots Near Unity, Peter C.B. Phillips, Ji Hyung Lee
Vars With Mixed Roots Near Unity, Peter C.B. Phillips, Ji Hyung Lee
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Limit theory is developed for nonstationary vector autoregression (VAR) with mixed roots in the vicinity of unity involving persistent and explosive components. Statistical tests for common roots are examined and model selection approaches for discriminating roots are explored. The results are useful in empirical testing for multiple manifestations of nonstationarity — in particular for distinguishing mildly explosive roots from roots that are local to unity and for testing commonality in persistence.
Testing For Multiple Bubbles, Peter C.B. Phillips, Shu-Ping Shi, Jun Yu
Testing For Multiple Bubbles, Peter C.B. Phillips, Shu-Ping Shi, Jun Yu
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Identifying and dating explosive bbles when there is periodically collapsing behavior over time has been a major concern in the economics literature and is of great importance for practitioners. The complexity of the nonlinear structure inherent in multiple bubble phenomena within the same sample period makes econometric analysis particularly difficult. The present paper develops new recursive procedures for practical implementation and surveillance strategies that may be employed by central banks and fiscal regulators. We show how the testing procedure and dating algorithm of Phillips, Wu and Yu (2011, PWY) are affected by multiple bubbles and may fail to be consistent. …
Lag Length Selection For Unit Root Tests In The Presence Of Nonstationary Volatility, Giuseppe Cavaliere, Peter C.B. Phillips, Stephan Smeekes, A. M. Rober Taylor
Lag Length Selection For Unit Root Tests In The Presence Of Nonstationary Volatility, Giuseppe Cavaliere, Peter C.B. Phillips, Stephan Smeekes, A. M. Rober Taylor
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
A number of recently published papers have focused on the problem of testing for a unit root in the case where the driving shocks may be unconditionally heteroskedastic. These papers have, however, assumed that the lag length in the unit root test regression is a deterministic function of the sample size, rather than data-determined, the latter being standard empirical practice. In this paper we investigate the finite sample impact of unconditional heteroskedasticity on conventional data-dependent methods of lag selection in augmented Dickey-Fuller type unit root test regressions and propose new lag selection criteria which allow for the presence of heteroskedasticity …
Efficient Auctions And Interdependent Types, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris, Satoru Takahashi
Efficient Auctions And Interdependent Types, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris, Satoru Takahashi
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We consider the efficient allocation of a single good with interdependent values in a quasi-linear environment. We present an approach to modelling interdependent preferences distinguishing between “payoff types” and “belief types” and report a characterization of when the efficient allocation can be partially Bayesian implemented on a finite type space. The characterization can be used to unify a number of sufficient conditions for efficient partial implementation in this classical auction setting. We report how a canonical language for discussing interdependent types — developed in a more general setting by Bergemann, Morris and Takahashi (2011) — applies in this setting and …
Nonparametric Inference Based On Conditional Moment Inequalities, Donald W.K. Andrews, Xiaoxia Shi
Nonparametric Inference Based On Conditional Moment Inequalities, Donald W.K. Andrews, Xiaoxia Shi
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper develops methods of inference for nonparametric and semiparametric parameters defined by conditional moment inequalities and/or equalities. The parameters need not be identified. Confidence sets and tests are introduced. The correct uniform asymptotic size of these procedures is established. The false coverage probabilities and power of the CS’s and tests are established for fixed alternatives and some local alternatives. Finite-sample simulation results are given for a nonparametric conditional quantile model with censoring and a nonparametric conditional treatment effect model. The recommended CS/test uses a Cramér-von-Mises-type test statistic and employs a generalized moment selection critical value.
Nonparametric Inference Based On Conditional Moment Inequalities, Donald W.K. Andrews, Xiaoxia Shi
Nonparametric Inference Based On Conditional Moment Inequalities, Donald W.K. Andrews, Xiaoxia Shi
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper develops methods of inference for nonparametric and semiparametric parameters defined by conditional moment inequalities and/or equalities. The parameters need not be identified. Confidence sets and tests are introduced. The correct uniform asymptotic size of these procedures is established. The false coverage probabilities and power of the CS’s and tests are established for fixed alternatives and some local alternatives. Finite-sample simulation results are given for a nonparametric conditional quantile model with censoring and a nonparametric conditional treatment effect model. The recommended CS/test uses a Cramér-von-Mises-type test statistic and employs a generalized moment selection critical value.
Integrated Economic And Climate Modeling, William D. Nordhaus
Integrated Economic And Climate Modeling, William D. Nordhaus
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This survey examines the history and current practice in integrated assessment models (IAMs) of the economics of climate change. It begins with a review of the emerging problem of climate change. The next section provides a brief sketch of the rise of IAMs in the 1970s and beyond. The subsequent section is an extended exposition of one IAM, the DICE/RICE family of models. The purpose of this description is to provide readers an example of how such a model is developed and what the major components are. The final section discusses major important open questions that continue to occupy IAM …
Nonparametric Inference Based On Conditional Moment Inequalities, Donald W.K. Andrews, Xiaoxia Shi
Nonparametric Inference Based On Conditional Moment Inequalities, Donald W.K. Andrews, Xiaoxia Shi
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper develops methods of inference for nonparametric and semiparametric parameters defined by conditional moment inequalities and/or equalities. The parameters need not be identified. Confidence sets and tests are introduced. The correct uniform asymptotic size of these procedures is established. The false coverage probabilities and power of the CS’s and tests are established for fixed alternatives and some local alternatives. Finite-sample simulation results are given for a nonparametric conditional quantile model with censoring and a nonparametric conditional treatment effect model. The recommended CS/test uses a Cramér-von-Mises-type test statistic and employs a generalized moment selection critical value.
Pricing Under The Threat Of Piracy: Flexibility And Platforms For Digital Goods, Dirk Bergemann, Thomas Eisenbach, Joan Feigenbaum, Scott Shenker
Pricing Under The Threat Of Piracy: Flexibility And Platforms For Digital Goods, Dirk Bergemann, Thomas Eisenbach, Joan Feigenbaum, Scott Shenker
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We consider the optimal design of flexible use in a digital-rights-management policy for a digital good subject to piracy. Consumers can acquire the digital good either as a licensed product or as an unlicensed copy. The ease of access to unlicensed copies is increasing in the flexibility accorded to licensed copies. The content provider has to trade off consumers’ valuation of a licensed copy against the sales lost to piracy. We enrich the basic model by introducing a “secure platform” that is required to use the digital good. We show that the platform allows for the socially optimal provision of …
Prizes Versus Wages With Envy And Pride, Pradeep Dubey, John Geanakoplos, Ori Haimanko
Prizes Versus Wages With Envy And Pride, Pradeep Dubey, John Geanakoplos, Ori Haimanko
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We show that if agents are risk neutral, prizes outperform wages if and only if there is sufficient pride and envy relative to the noisiness of performance. If agents are risk averse, prizes are a necessary supplement to wages (as bonuses).
Sensitivity Analysis In Semiparametric Likelihood Models, Xiaohong Chen, Elie Tamer, Alexander Torgovitsky
Sensitivity Analysis In Semiparametric Likelihood Models, Xiaohong Chen, Elie Tamer, Alexander Torgovitsky
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We provide methods for inference on a finite dimensional parameter of interest, θ in Re ^{ d _θ}, in a semiparametric probability model when an infinite dimensional nuisance parameter, g , is present. We depart from the semiparametric literature in that we do not require that the pair (θ, g ) is point identified and so we construct confidence regions for θ that are robust to non-point identification. This allows practitioners to examine the sensitivity of their estimates of θ to specification of g in a likelihood setup. To construct these confidence regions for θ, we invert a profiled sieve …
Greek Debt And American Debt: Graduation Speech At The University Of Athens Economics And Business School, John Geanakoplos
Greek Debt And American Debt: Graduation Speech At The University Of Athens Economics And Business School, John Geanakoplos
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This is the graduation speech I gave on receiving an honorary doctorate at the University of Athens Economics and Business School. I talk about my Greek family, about how I got interested in economics, and then how in the 1990s I came to think about default, collateral, and leverage as the central features of the financial/macro economy, despite their complete absence (even now) from any textbooks. Finally I suggest that the Greek debt problem, and on a bigger scale, the American debt problem, can only be cured when lenders are prodded to forgive. That would be better for the borrowers …
Monitoring Leverage, John Geanakoplos, Lasse H. Pedersen
Monitoring Leverage, John Geanakoplos, Lasse H. Pedersen
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We discuss how leverage can be monitored for institutions, individuals, and assets. While traditionally the interest rate has been regarded as the important feature of a loan, we argue that leverage is sometimes even more important. Monitoring leverage provides information about how risk builds up during booms as leverage rises and how crises start when leverage on new loans sharply declines. Leverage data is also a crucial input for crisis management and lending facilities. Leverage at the asset level can be monitored by down payments or margin requirement or and haircuts, giving a model-free measure that can be observed directly, …