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Articles 1771 - 1800 of 2930
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Price Variations In A Stock Market With Many Agents, Per Bak, Maya Paczuski, Martin Shubik
Price Variations In A Stock Market With Many Agents, Per Bak, Maya Paczuski, Martin Shubik
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Large variations in stock prices happen with sufficient frequency to raise doubts about existing models, which all fail to account for non-Gaussian statistics. We construct simple models of a stock market, and argue that the large variations may be due to a crowd effect, where agents imitate each other’s behavior. The variations over different time scales can be related to each other in a systematic way, similar to the Lévy stable distribution proposed by Mandelbrot to describe real market indices. In the simplest, least realistic case, exact results for the statistics of the variations are derived by mapping onto a …
Efficiency Gains From Quasi-Differencing Under Nonstationarity, Peter C.B. Phillips, Chin Chin Lee
Efficiency Gains From Quasi-Differencing Under Nonstationarity, Peter C.B. Phillips, Chin Chin Lee
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
A famous theorem on trend removal by OLS regression (usually attributed to Grenander and Rosenblatt, 1957) gave conditions for the asymptotic equivalence of GLS and OLS in deterministic trend extraction. When a time series has trend components that are stochastically nonstationary, this asymptotic equivalence no longer holds. We consider models with integrated and near-integrated error processes where this asymptotic equivalence breaks down. In such models, the advantages of GLS can be achieved through quasi-differencing and we give an asymptotic theory of the relative gains that occur in deterministic trend extraction in such cases. Some differences between models with and without …
Estimated Inflation Costs Had European Unemployment Been Reduced In The 1980s By Macro Prices, Ray C. Fair
Estimated Inflation Costs Had European Unemployment Been Reduced In The 1980s By Macro Prices, Ray C. Fair
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper uses a multicountry econometric model to estimate what the inflation costs would have been if macropolicies had reduced European unemployment in the 1982:1-1990:4 period. A “non-NAIRU” framework is proposed for thinking about these costs.
Nash And Walras Equilibrium Via Brouwer, John Geanakoplos
Nash And Walras Equilibrium Via Brouwer, John Geanakoplos
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The existence of Nash and Walras equilibrium is proved via Brouwer’s Fixed Point Theorem, without recourse to Kakutani’s Fixed Point Theorem for correspondences. The domain of the Walras fixed point map is confined to the price simplex, even when there is production and weakly quasi-convex preferences. The key idea is to replace optimization with “satisficing improvement,” i.e., to replace the Maximum Principle with the “Satisficing Principle.”
The Limiting Behavior Of Kernel Estimates Of The Lyapunov Exponent For Stochastic Time Series, Yoon-Jae Whang, Oliver B. Linton
The Limiting Behavior Of Kernel Estimates Of The Lyapunov Exponent For Stochastic Time Series, Yoon-Jae Whang, Oliver B. Linton
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper derives the asymptotic distribution of a smoothing-based estimator of the Lyapunov exponent for a stochastic time series under two general scenarios. In the first case, we are able to establish root-T consistency and asymptotic normality, while in the second case, which is more relevant for chaotic processes, we are only able to establish asymptotic normality at a slower rate of convergence. We provide consistent confidence intervals for both cases. We apply our procedures to simulated data.
Nash And Walras Equilibrium Via Brouwer, John Geanakoplos
Nash And Walras Equilibrium Via Brouwer, John Geanakoplos
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The existence of Nash and Walras equilibrium is proved via Brouwer’s Fixed Point Theorem, without recourse to Kakutani’s Fixed Point Theorem for correspondences. The domain of the Walras fixed point map is confined to the price simplex, even when there is production and weakly quasi-concave preferences. The key idea is to replace optimization with “satisficing improvement,” i.e., to replace the Maximum Principle with the “Satisficing Principle.”
Nash And Walras Equilibrium Via Brouwer, John Geanakoplos
Nash And Walras Equilibrium Via Brouwer, John Geanakoplos
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The existence of Nash and Walras equilibrium is proved via Brouwer’s Fixed Point Theorem, without recourse to Kakutani’s Fixed Point Theorem for correspondences. The domain of the Walras fixed point map is confined to the price simplex, even when there is production and weakly quasi-convex preferences. The key idea is to replace optimization with “satisficing improvement,” i.e., to replace the Maximum Principle with the “Satisficing Principle.”
The Hangman's Paradox And Newcomb's Paradox As Psychological Games, John Geanakoplos
The Hangman's Paradox And Newcomb's Paradox As Psychological Games, John Geanakoplos
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We present a (hopefully) fresh interpretation of the Hangman’s Paradox and Newcomb’s Paradox by casting the puzzles in the language of modern game theory, instead of in the realm of epistemology. Game theory moves the analysis away from the formal logic of the puzzles toward more practical problems, such as: On what day would the executioner hang the prisoner if he wanted to surprise him as much as possible? How should a surprise test be administered? We argue that both the Hangman’s Paradox and Newcomb’s Paradox are analogous to a well-known phenomenon in game theory, that giving a player an …
Matrices With Identical Sets Of Neighbors, Imre Bárány, Herbert E. Scarf
Matrices With Identical Sets Of Neighbors, Imre Bárány, Herbert E. Scarf
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Given a generic m by n matrix A , a lattice point h in Z is a neighbor of the origin if the body { x : Ax < b }, with b i = max{0, a i h }, i = 1, …, m , contains no lattice point other than 0 and h . The set of neighbors, N ( A ), is finite and Asymmetric. We show that if A’ is another matrix of the same size with the property that sign a i h = sign a i ’ h for every i and every h in N ( A ), then A’ has precisely the same set of neighbors as A . The collection of such matrices is a polyhedral cone, described by a finite set of linear inequalities, each such inequality corresponding to a generator of one of the cones C i = pos( h in N ( A ): a i h < 0}. Computational experience shows that C i has “few” generators. We demonstrate this in the first nontrivial case n = 3, m = 4.
Tests Of Seasonal And Non-Seasonal Serial Correlation, Donald W.K. Andrews, Xuemei Liu, Werner Ploberger
Tests Of Seasonal And Non-Seasonal Serial Correlation, Donald W.K. Andrews, Xuemei Liu, Werner Ploberger
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper considers tests for seasonal and non-seasonal serial correlation in time series and in the errors of regression models. The problem of testing for white noise against multiplicative seasonal ARMA(l,l)-ARMA(l,l) alternatives is investigated. This testing problem is non-standard due to nuisance parameters that appear under the alternative but not under the null hypothesis. The likelihood ratio (LR), sup Lagrange multiplier (LM), and exponential average LM and LR tests are considered and are shown to be asymptotically admissible for multiplicative seasonal ARMA(l,l)-ARMA(l,l) alternatives. In addition, they are shown to be consistent against all (weakly stationary strong mixing) non-white noise alternatives. …
A Scorecard For Indexed Government Debt, John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller
A Scorecard For Indexed Government Debt, John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Within the last five years, Canada, Sweden and New Zealand have joined the ranks of the United Kingdom and other countries in issuing government bonds that are indexed to inflation. Some observers of the experience in these countries have argued that the United States should follow suit. This paper provides an overview of the issues surrounding debt indexation, and it tries to answer three empirical questions about indexed debt. First, how different would the returns on indexed bonds be from the returns on existing US debt instruments? Second, how would indexed bonds affect the government’s average financing costs? Third, how …
Hedging With Derivatives In Incomplete Markets, Charalambos D. Aliprantis, Donald J. Brown, J. Werner
Hedging With Derivatives In Incomplete Markets, Charalambos D. Aliprantis, Donald J. Brown, J. Werner
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We present necessary and sufficient conditions on the asset span of incomplete derivative markets for insuring marketed portfolios. If the asset span is finite dimensional there exists a polynomial-time algorithm for deciding if every marketed portfolio is insurable, moreover this algorithm computes the minimum cost insurance portfolio. In addition, we extend the Cox-Leland characterization of optimal portfolio insurance in complete derivative markets to asset spans of incomplete derivative markets where every marketed portfolio is insurable.
Three Brief Proofs Of Arrow's Impossibility Theorem, John Geanakoplos
Three Brief Proofs Of Arrow's Impossibility Theorem, John Geanakoplos
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Arrow’s original proof of his impossibility theorem proceeded in two steps: showing the existence of a decisive voter, and then showing that a decisive voter is a dictator. Barbera replaced the decisive voter with the weaker notion of a pivotal voter, thereby shortening the first step, but complicating the second step. I give three brief proofs, all of which turn on replacing the decisive/pivotal voter with an extremely pivotal voter (a voter who by unilaterally changing his vote can move some alternative from the bottom of the social ranking to the top), thereby simplifying both steps in Arrow’s proof. My …
Three Brief Proofs Of Arrow's Impossibility Theorem, John Geanakoplos
Three Brief Proofs Of Arrow's Impossibility Theorem, John Geanakoplos
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Arrow’s original proof of his impossibility theorem proceeded in two steps: showing the existence of a decisive voter, and then showing that a decisive voter is a dictator. Barbera replaced the decisive voter with the weaker notion of a pivotal voter, thereby shortening the first step, but complicating the second step. I give three brief proofs, all of which turn on replacing the decisive/pivotal voter with an extremely pivotal voter (a voter who by unilaterally changing his vote can move some alternative from the bottom of the social ranking to the top), thereby simplifying both steps in Arrow’s proof. My …
A Stopping Rule For The Computation Of Generalized Method Of Moments Estimators, Donald W.K. Andrews
A Stopping Rule For The Computation Of Generalized Method Of Moments Estimators, Donald W.K. Andrews
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
To obtain consistency and asymptotic normality, a generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator typically is defined to be an approximate global minimizer of a GMM criterion function. To compute such an estimator, however, can be problematic because of the difficulty of global optimization. In consequence, practitioners usually ignore the problem and take the GMM estimator to be the result of a local optimization algorithm. This yields an estimator that is not necessarily consistent and asymptotically normal. The use of a local optimization algorithm also can run into the problem of instability due to flats or ridges in the criterion function, …
Market Experimentation And Pricing, Dirk Bergemann, Juuso Välimäki
Market Experimentation And Pricing, Dirk Bergemann, Juuso Välimäki
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We present a continuous-time model of Bayesian learning in a duopolistic market. Initially the value of one product offered is unknown to the market. The market participants learn more about the true value of the product as experimentation occurs over time. Firms set prices to induce experimentation with their product. The aggregate outcomes are public information. As agents learn from the experiments of others, informational externalities arise. Surprisingly, the informational externality leads to too much learning. Buyers do not consider the impact of their experimentation on other buyers while the sellers internalize the gains from experiments conducted by the buyers. …
Semiparametric Estimation Of A Sample Selection Model, Donald W.K. Andrews, Marcia A. Schafgans
Semiparametric Estimation Of A Sample Selection Model, Donald W.K. Andrews, Marcia A. Schafgans
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper provides a consistent and asymptotically normal estimator for the intercept of a semiparametrically estimated sample selection model. The estimator uses a decreasingly small fraction of all observations as the sample size goes to infinity, as in Heckman (1990). In the semiparametrics literature, estimation of the intercept typically has been subsumed in the nonparametric sample selection bias correction term. The estimation of the intercept, however, is important from an economic perspective. For instance, it permits one to determine the “wage gap” between unionized and nonunionized workers, decompose the wage differential between different socioeconomic groups (e.g., male-female and black-white), and …
Two Brief Proofs Of Arrow's Impossibility Theorem, John Geanakoplos
Two Brief Proofs Of Arrow's Impossibility Theorem, John Geanakoplos
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The first proof shows that Arrow’s axioms guarantee neutrality: every social choice must be made in exactly the same way, which quickly leads to dictatorship. The second proof clarifies the last step, and also confirms the intimate connection between Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem and the Condorcet triple. The second proof shows that a doubly pivotal agent must be a dictator; the Condorcet triple guarantees the existence of a doubly pivotal agent. Neutrality guarantees the existence of a (symmetrically) doubly pivotal agent.
Three Brief Proofs Of Arrow's Impossibility Theorem, John Geanakoplos
Three Brief Proofs Of Arrow's Impossibility Theorem, John Geanakoplos
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Arrow’s original proof of his impossibility theorem proceeded in two steps: showing the existence of a decisive voter, and then showing that a decisive voter is a dictator. Barbera replaced the decisive voter with the weaker notion of a pivotal voter, thereby shortening the first step, but complicating the second step. I give three brief proofs, all of which turn on replacing the decisive/pivotal voter with an extremely pivotal voter (a voter who by unilaterally changing his vote can move some alternative from the bottom of the social ranking to the top), thereby simplifying both steps in Arrow’s proof. My …
Testing The Standard View Of The Long-Run Unemployment-Inflation Relationship, Ray C. Fair
Testing The Standard View Of The Long-Run Unemployment-Inflation Relationship, Ray C. Fair
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The results in this paper, based on estimating and testing price equations for 30 countries, do not support the standard view of the long-run relationship between unemployment and inflation. They overwhelmingly reject the dynamics implied by the standard view. Wage equations are also estimated and tested. The paper also attempts to estimate the functional form of the relationship between measures of demand pressure and price and wage levels, but no strong conclusions emerge.
Why Do People Dislike Inflation?, Robert J. Shiller
Why Do People Dislike Inflation?, Robert J. Shiller
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
A questionnaire survey was conducted to explore how people think about inflation, and what real problems they see it as causing. With results from 677 people, comparisons were made among people in the U.S., Germany, and Brazil, between young and old, and between economists and non-economists. Among non-economists in all countries, the largest concern with inflation appears to be that it lowers people’s standard of living. Non-economists appear often to believe in a sort of sticky-wage model, by which wages do not respond to inflationary shocks, shocks which are themselves perceived as caused by certain people or institutions acting badly. …
Explaining The Labor Force Participation Of Women 20-24, Ray C. Fair, Diane J. Macunovich
Explaining The Labor Force Participation Of Women 20-24, Ray C. Fair, Diane J. Macunovich
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Between about the mid 1960s and the late 1970s there was a remarkable rise in the labor force participation of women and then a leveling off that has persisted through the mid 1990s. This paper attempts to explain the labor force participation of women 20-24 over this period. A “relative income” variable is constructed based on Easterlin’s (1980) relative income hypothesis, and this is found to be an important explanatory variable. Easterlin’s “cohort wage” hypothesis is also used in the analysis. The basic equation estimated does very well in various tests that were performed on it, and it appears to …
What Is The Value Of Scientific Knowledge? An Application To Global Warming Using The Price Model, William D. Nordhaus, David Popp
What Is The Value Of Scientific Knowledge? An Application To Global Warming Using The Price Model, William D. Nordhaus, David Popp
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Governments must cope with the enormous uncertainties about both future climate change as well as the costs and benefits of slowing climate change. This study analyses the value of improved information about a variety of geophysical and economic processes. The value of information is estimated using the “PRICE model” which is a probabilistic extension of earlier models of the economics of global warming. The study uses five different approaches to estimating the value of information about all uncertain parameters and about individual parameters. It is estimated that the value of early information is between $1.5 and $2 billion for each …
An Asymptotic Expansion In The Garch(1,1) Model, Oliver B. Linton
An Asymptotic Expansion In The Garch(1,1) Model, Oliver B. Linton
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We develop order T -1 asymptotic expansions for the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) and a two step approximate QMLE in the GARCH(1,1) model. We calculate the approximate mean and skewness and hence the Edgeworth-B distribution function. We suggest several methods of bias reduction based on these approximation.
Preference For Information, Simon Grant, Atsushi Kajii, Ben Polak
Preference For Information, Simon Grant, Atsushi Kajii, Ben Polak
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
What is the relationship between an agent’s attitude towards information, and her attitude towards risk? If an agent always prefers more information, does this imply that she obeys the independence axiom? We provide a substitution property on preferences that is equivalent to the agent (intrinsically) liking information in the absence of contingent choices. We use this property to explore both questions, first in general, then for recursive smooth preferences, and then in specific recursive non-expected utility models. Given smoothness, for both the rank dependence and betweenness models, if an agent is information-loving then her preferences can depart from Kreps and …
Learning And Strategic Pricing, Dirk Bergemann, Juuso Välimäki
Learning And Strategic Pricing, Dirk Bergemann, Juuso Välimäki
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We consider the situation where a single consumer buys a stream of goods from different sellers over time. The true value of each seller’s product to the buyer is initially unknown. Additional information can be gained only by experimentation. For exogenously given prices the buyer’s problem is a multi-armed bandit problem. The innovation in this paper is to endogenize the cost of experimentation to the consumer by allowing for price competition between the sellers. The role of prices is then to allocate intertemporally the costs and benefits of learning between buyer and sellers. We examine how strategic aspects of the …
Time And Money, Martin Shubik
Time And Money, Martin Shubik
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
General equilibrium is timeless, and without outside money, the price system is homogeneous of order zero. Some finite horizon strategic market game models are considered with an initial issue of flat money held as an asset. For any arbitrary finite horizon, the solution is time-dependent. In the infinite horizon, time disappears with the initial issue of flat money present as circulating capital in the fully stationary state and the price level is determined.
A Conditional Kolmogorov Test, Donald W.K. Andrews
A Conditional Kolmogorov Test, Donald W.K. Andrews
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper introduces a conditional Kolmogorov test of model specification for parametric models with covariates (regressors). The test is an extension of the Kolmogorov test of goodness-of-fit for distribution functions. The test is shown to have power against 1/root{n}-local alternatives and all fixed alternatives to the null hypothesis. A parametric bootstrap procedure is used to obtain critical values for the test.
Testable Restrictions On The Equilibrium Manifold, Donald J. Brown, Rosa L. Matzkin
Testable Restrictions On The Equilibrium Manifold, Donald J. Brown, Rosa L. Matzkin
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We present a finite system of polynomial inequalities in unobservable variables and market data that observations on market prices, individual incomes and aggregate endowments must satisfy to be consistent with the equilibrium behavior of some pure trade economy. Quantifier elimination is used to derive testable propositions on finite data sets for the pure trade model.
Labor Income Indices Designed For Use In Contracts Promoting Income Risk Management, Robert J. Shiller, Ryan Schneider
Labor Income Indices Designed For Use In Contracts Promoting Income Risk Management, Robert J. Shiller, Ryan Schneider
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Labor income indices are created for groupings of individuals, using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. People are grouped by a clustering algorithm based on an estimated transition matrix between jobs, by education level, and by skill category. The groups are defined so that relatively few people move between them. For each of the groupings, we generate a labor income index using a hedonic repeated-measures regression methodology. Similarities between pairs of indices and between indices and individual labor incomes are described. It is argued that indices like those presented here might someday be used in settlement formulae in …