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Articles 1651 - 1680 of 2930
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
The Theory Of Money, Martin Shubik
The Theory Of Money, Martin Shubik
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Fiat money is a creation of both the state and society. Its value is supported by expectations which are conditioned by the dynamics of trust in government, the socio-economic structure and by outside events such as wars, plagues or political unrest. The micro-management of a dynamic economy is not far removed in difficulty from the micro-management of the weather. However, money and the financial institutions and instruments of a modern economy provide the means to influence expectations and bound behavior. Paper money emerges as a virtual commodity. The dynamics of the economy permits it to serve as an imaginary gold. …
Bootstrap Unit Root Tests In Panels With Cross-Sectional Dependency, Yoosoon Chang
Bootstrap Unit Root Tests In Panels With Cross-Sectional Dependency, Yoosoon Chang
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We apply bootstrap methodology to unit root tests for dependent panels with N cross-sectional units and T time series observations. More specifically, we let each panel be driven by a general linear process which may be different across cross-sectional units, and approximate it by a finite order autoregressive integrated process of order increasing with T . As we allow the dependency among the innovations generating the individual panels, we construct our unit root tests from the estimation of the system of the entire N panels. The limit distributions of the tests are derived by passing T to infinity, with N …
Confidence Intervals, Donald W.K. Andrews, Moshe Buchinsky
Confidence Intervals, Donald W.K. Andrews, Moshe Buchinsky
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper considers the problem of choosing the number bootstrap repetitions B to use with the BC a bootstrap confidence intervals introduced by Efron (1987). Because the simulated random variables are ancillary, we seek a choice of B that yields a confidence interval that is close to the ideal bootstrap confidence interval for which B = ∞. We specifiy a three-step method of choosing B that ensures that the lower and upper lengths of the confidence interval deviate from those of the ideal bootstrap confidence interval by at most a small percentage with high probability.
Default In A General Equilibrium Model With Incomplete Markets, Pradeep Dubey, John Geanakoplos, Martin Shubik
Default In A General Equilibrium Model With Incomplete Markets, Pradeep Dubey, John Geanakoplos, Martin Shubik
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We extend the standard model of general equilibrium with incomplete markets (GEI) to allow for default. The equilibrating variables include aggregate default levels, as well as prices of assets and commodities. Default can be either strategic, or due to ill-fortune. It can be caused by events directly affecting the borrower, or indirectly as part of a chain reaction in which a borrower cannot repay because he himself has not been repaid. Each asset is defined by its promises A , the penalties lambda for default, and the limitations Q on its sale. The model is thus named GE ( A …
Information Acquisition And Efficient Mechanism Design, Dirk Bergemann, Juuso Välimäki
Information Acquisition And Efficient Mechanism Design, Dirk Bergemann, Juuso Välimäki
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We consider a general mechanism design setting where each agent can acquire (covert) information before participating in the mechanism. The central question is whether a mechanism exists which provides the efficient incentives for information acquisition ex-ante and implements the efficient allocation conditional on the private information ex-post. It is shown that in every private value environment the Vickrey-Groves-Clark mechanism guarantees both ex-ante as well as ex-post efficiency. In contract, with common values, ex-ante and ex-post efficiency cannot be reconciled in general. Sufficient conditions in terms of sub- and supermodularity are provided when (all) ex-post efficient mechanisms lead to private under- …
Bargaining And Markets: Complexity And The Walrasian Outcome, Hamid Sabourian
Bargaining And Markets: Complexity And The Walrasian Outcome, Hamid Sabourian
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Rubinstein and Wolinsky (1990b) consider a simple decentralized market in which agents either meet randomly or choose their partners volunatarily and bargain over the terms on which they are willing to trade. Intuition suggests that if there are no transaction costs, the outcome of this matching and bargaining game should be the unique competitive equilibrium. This does not happen. In fact, Rubinstein and Wolinsky show that any price can be sustained as a sequential equilibrium of this game. In this paper, I consider Rubinstein and Wolinsky’s model and show that if the complexity costs of implementing strategies enter players’ preferences …
Political Correctness, Stephen Morris
Political Correctness, Stephen Morris
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
An informed advisor wishes to convey her valuable information to an uninformed decision maker with identical preferences. Thus she has a current incentive to truthfully reveal her information. But if the decision maker thinks the advisor might be biased in favor of one decision, and the advisor does not wish to be thought to be biased, the advisor has a reputational incentive to lie. If the advisor is sufficiently concerned about her reputation, no information is conveyed in equilibrium. In a repeated version of this game, the advisor will care.
Unit Root Log Periodogram Regression, Peter C.B. Phillips
Unit Root Log Periodogram Regression, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Log periodogram (LP) regression is shown to be consistent and to have a mixed normal limit distribution when the memory parameter d = 1. Gaussian errors are not required. Tests of d = 1 based on LP regression are consistent against d < 1 alternatives but inconsistent against d > 1 alternatives. A test based on a modified LP regression that is consistent in both directions is provided.
Coordination Risk And The Price Of Debt, Stephen Morris, Hyun Song Shin
Coordination Risk And The Price Of Debt, Stephen Morris, Hyun Song Shin
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Creditors of a distressed borrower face a coordination problem. Even if the fundamentals are sound, fear of premature foreclosure by others may lead to pre-emptive action, undermining the project. Recognition of this problem lies behind corporate bankruptcy provisions across the world, and it has been identified as a culprit in international financial crises, but has received scant attention from the literature on debt pricing. The apparent multiplicity of equilibria is a barrier to development of this issue in asset pricing, but this multiplicity is only apparent. Without common knowledge of fundamentals, the incidence of failure is uniquely determined provided that …
Coordination Risk And The Price Of Debt, Stephen Morris, Hyun Song Shin
Coordination Risk And The Price Of Debt, Stephen Morris, Hyun Song Shin
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Creditors of a distressed borrower face a coordination problem. Even if the fundamentals are sound, fear of premature foreclosure by others may lead to pre-emptive action, undermining the project. Recognition of this problem lies behind corporate bankruptcy provisions across the world, and it has been identified as a culprit in international financial crises, but has received scant attention from the literature on debt pricing. Without common knowledge of fundamentals, the incidence of failure is uniquely determined provided that private information is precise enough. This affords a way to price the coordination failure. Comparative statics on the unique equilibrium provides several …
Nonlinear Econometric Models With Cointegrated And Deterministically Trending Regressors, Yoosoon Chang, Joon Y. Park, Peter C.B. Phillips
Nonlinear Econometric Models With Cointegrated And Deterministically Trending Regressors, Yoosoon Chang, Joon Y. Park, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper develops an asymptotic theory for a general class of nonlinear nonstationary regressions, extending earlier work by Phillips and Hansen (1990) on linear cointegrating regressions. The model considered accommodates a linear time trend and stationary regressors, as well as multiple I(1) regressors. We establish consistency and derive the limit distribution of the nonlinear least squares estimator. The estimator is consistent under fairly general conditions but the convergence rate and the limiting distribution are critically dependent upon the type of the regression function. For integrable regression functions, the parameter estimates converge at a reduced n 1 /4 rate and have …
Maximum Likelihood Estimation In Panels With Incidental Trends, Hyungsik Roger Moon, Peter C.B. Phillips
Maximum Likelihood Estimation In Panels With Incidental Trends, Hyungsik Roger Moon, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
It is shown that the maximum likelihood estimator of a local to unity parameter can be consistently estimated with panel data when the cross section observations are independent. Consistency applies when there are no deterministic trends or when there is a homogeneous deterministic trend in the panel model. When there are heterogeneous deterministic trends the panel MLE of the local to unity parameter is inconsistent. This outcome provides a new instance of inconsistent ML estimation in dynamic panels, and, unlike earlier results of this type, applies when both T approaches infinity and N approaches infinity.
Discrete Fourier Transforms Of Fractional Processes, Peter C.B. Phillips
Discrete Fourier Transforms Of Fractional Processes, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Discrete Fourier transforms (dft’s) of fractional processes are studied and an exact representation of the dft is given in terms of the component data. The new representation gives the frequency domain form of the model for a fractional process, and is particularly useful in analyzing the asymptotic behavior of the dft and periodogram in the nonstationary case when the memory parameter d > 1/2. Various asymptotic approximations are suggested. It is shown that smoothed periodogram spectral estimates remain consistent for frequencies away from the origin in the nonstationary case provided the memory parameter d < 1. When d = 1, the spectral estimates are inconsistent and converge weakly to random variates. Applications of the theory to log periodogram regression and local Whittle estimation of the memory parameter are discussed and some modified versions of these procedures are suggested.
Strategic Buyers And Privately Observed Prices, Dirk Bergemann, Juuso Välimäki
Strategic Buyers And Privately Observed Prices, Dirk Bergemann, Juuso Välimäki
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
A model of repeated price competition with large buyers is analyzed. The sellers are allowed to offer different prices to different buyers and the buyers act strategically. The set of subgame perfect Equilibria is investigated under public and private monitoring. With public monitoring the equilibrium set with large buyers expands relative to the standard model where each buyer is small and behaves myopically. With private monitoring, where prices are not observable to the competing sellers, the set of equilibrium payoffs shrinks . In the finitely repeated game with private monitoring, all sales are made by the efficient seller. In the …
Repeated Games With Almost-Public Monitoring, George J. Mailath, Stephen Morris
Repeated Games With Almost-Public Monitoring, George J. Mailath, Stephen Morris
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
In repeated games with imperfect public monitoring, players can use public signals to coordinate their behavior perfectly, and thus support cooperative outcomes with the threat of punishments. But with even a small amount of private monitoring, players’ private histories may lead them to have sufficiently different views of the world that such coordination on punishments is no longer possible (we describe a simple strategy profile that is a perfect public equilibrium of a repeated prisoner’s dilemma with imperfect public monitoring, and yet is not an equilibrium for arbitrarily close games with private monitoring). If a perfect public equilibrium has players’ …
Survey Of Multifractality In Finance, Benoit Mandelbrot
Survey Of Multifractality In Finance, Benoit Mandelbrot
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
No abstract provided.
World Income Components: Measuring And Exploiting Risk-Sharing Opportunities, Stefano G. Athanasoulis, Robert J. Shiller
World Income Components: Measuring And Exploiting Risk-Sharing Opportunities, Stefano G. Athanasoulis, Robert J. Shiller
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We provide a method for decomposing the variance of changes in incomes in the world into components, world income components (WICs), in such a way as to indicate the most important risk-sharing opportunities among people of the world. We develop a constant absolute risk premium model, an intertemporal general equilibrium model of the world that facilitates consideration of optimal contract design. We show that for a contract designer maximizing a social welfare function, the optimal risk-management contracts maximize the equilibrium world real interest rate. That is the contract designer achieves the risk-optimal interest rate. We show that these WIC securities …
Stationary Multi Choice Bandit Problems, Dirk Bergemann, Juuso Välimäki
Stationary Multi Choice Bandit Problems, Dirk Bergemann, Juuso Välimäki
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This note shows that the optimal choice of k simultaneous experiments in a stationary multi-armed bandit problem can be characterized in terms of the Gittins index of each arm. The index characterization remains equally valid after the introduction of switching costs.
Contractual Intermediaries, Garey Ramey, Joel Watson
Contractual Intermediaries, Garey Ramey, Joel Watson
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper analyzes the role of third party intermediaries, such as courts and arbitrators, in contract enforcement. In our model, intermediaries compel contracted transfers and resolve disputes when requested to do so by the contracting agents. When the verifiability of information is limited, successful enforcement requires that dispute resolution costs be sufficiently great. Optimal enforcement systems economize on dispute resolution and information costs, and may involve establishment of specific systems tailored to particular groups. We show further that the “holdup problem” may be resolved via an appropriately designed dispute resolution system.
On Minsky's Agenda For Reform, James Tobin
On Minsky's Agenda For Reform, James Tobin
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
No abstract provided.
Consistent Model And Moment Selection Criteria For Gmm Estimation With Application To Dynamic Panel Data Models, Donald W.K. Andrews, Biao Lu
Consistent Model And Moment Selection Criteria For Gmm Estimation With Application To Dynamic Panel Data Models, Donald W.K. Andrews, Biao Lu
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper develops consistent model and moment selection criteria for GMM estimation. The criteria select the correct model specification and all correct moment conditions asymptotically. The selection criteria resemble the widely used likelihood-based selection criteria BIC, HQIC, and AIC. (The latter is not consistent.) The GMM selection criteria are based on the J statistic for testing over-identifying restrictions. Bonus terms reward the use of fewer parameters for a given number of moment conditions and the use of more moment conditions for a given number of parameters. The paper applies the model and moment selection criteria to dynamic panel data models …
Vertical Integration, Networks, And Markets], Rachel E. Kranton, Deborah F. Minehart
Vertical Integration, Networks, And Markets], Rachel E. Kranton, Deborah F. Minehart
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The organization of supply relations varies across industries. This paper builds a theoretical framework to compare three alternative supply structures: vertical integration, networks, and markets. The analysis considers the relationship between uncertainty in demand for specific inputs, investment costs, and industrial structure. It shows that network structures are more likely when productive assets are expensive and firms experience large idiosyncratic shocks in demand. The analysis is supported by existing evidence and provides empirical predictions as to the shape of different industries.
Testing When A Parameter Is On The Boundary Of The Maintained Hypothesis, Donald W.K. Andrews
Testing When A Parameter Is On The Boundary Of The Maintained Hypothesis, Donald W.K. Andrews
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper considers testing problems where several of the standard regularity conditions fail to hold. We consider the case where (i) parameter vectors in the null hypothesis may lie on the boundary of the maintained hypothesis and (ii) there may be a nuisance parameter that appears under the alternative hypothesis, but not under the null. The paper establishes the asymptotic null and local alternative distributions of quasi-likelihood ratio, rescaled quasi-likelihood ratio, Wald, and score tests in this case. The results apply to tests based on a wide variety of extremum estimators and apply to a wide variety of models. Examples …
Higher-Order Improvements Of A Computationally Attractive K-Step Bootstrap For Extremum Estimators, Donald W.K. Andrews
Higher-Order Improvements Of A Computationally Attractive K-Step Bootstrap For Extremum Estimators, Donald W.K. Andrews
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper establishes the higher-order equivalence of the k -step bootstrap, introduced recently by Davidson and MacKinnon (1999a), and the standard bootstrap. The k -step bootstrap is a very attractive alternative computationally to the standard bootstrap for statistics based on nonlinear extremum estimators, such as generalized method of moment and maximum likelihood estimators. The paper also extends results of Hall and Horowitz (1996) to provide new results regarding the higher-order improvements of the standard bootstrap and the k -step bootstrap for extremum estimators (compared to procedures based on first-order asymptotics). The results of the paper apply to Newton-Raphson (NR), default …
Vertical Integration, Networks, And Markets, Rachel E. Kranton, Deborah F. Minehart
Vertical Integration, Networks, And Markets, Rachel E. Kranton, Deborah F. Minehart
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The organization of supply relations varies across industries. This paper builds a theoretical framework to compare three alternative supply structures: vertical integration, networks, and markets. The analysis considers the relationship between uncertainty in demand for specific inputs, investment costs, and industrial structure. It shows that network structures are more likely when productive assets are expensive and firms experience large idiosyncratic shocks in demand. The analysis is supported by existing evidence and provides empirical predictions as to the shape of different industries.
Higher-Order Improvements Of A Computationally Attractive K-Step Bootstrap For Extremum Estimators, Donald W.K. Andrews
Higher-Order Improvements Of A Computationally Attractive K-Step Bootstrap For Extremum Estimators, Donald W.K. Andrews
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper establishes the higher-order equivalence of the k -step bootstrap, introduced recently by Davidson and MacKinnon (1999a), and the standard bootstrap. The k -step bootstrap is a very attractive alternative computationally to the standard bootstrap for statistics based on nonlinear extremum estimators, such as generalized method of moment and maximum likelihood estimators. The paper also extends results of Hall and Horowitz (1996) to provide new results regarding the higher-order improvements of the standard bootstrap and the k -step bootstrap for extremum estimators (compared to procedures based on first-order asymptotics). The results of the paper apply to Newton-Raphson (NR), default …
Nonstationary Panel Data Analysis: An Overview Of Some Recent Developments, Peter C.B. Phillips, Hyungsik Roger Moon
Nonstationary Panel Data Analysis: An Overview Of Some Recent Developments, Peter C.B. Phillips, Hyungsik Roger Moon
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper overviews some recent developments in panel data asymptotics, concentrating on the nonstationary panel case and gives a new result for models with individual effects. Underlying recent theory are asymptotics for multi-indexed processes in which both indexes may pass to infinity. We review some of the new limit theory that has been developed, show how it can be applied and give a new interpretation of individual effects in nonstationary panel data. Fundamental to the interpretation of much of the asymptotics is the concept of a panel regression coefficient which measures the long run average relation across a section of …
Nonstationary Binary Choice, Joon Y. Park, Peter C.B. Phillips
Nonstationary Binary Choice, Joon Y. Park, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper develops an asymptotic theory for time series binary choice models with nonstationary explanatory variables generated as integrated processes. Both logit and probit models are covered. The maximum likelihood (ML) estimator is consistent but a new phenomenon arises in its limit distribution theory. The estimator consists of a mixture of two components, one of which is parallel to and the other orthogonal to the direction of the true parameter vector, with the latter being the principal component. The ML estimator is shown to converge at a rate of n 3 /4 along its principal component but has the slower …
Descriptive Econometrics For Nonstationary Time Series With Empirical Illustrations, Peter C.B. Phillips
Descriptive Econometrics For Nonstationary Time Series With Empirical Illustrations, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Recent work by the author on methods of spatial density analysis for time series data with stochastic trends is reviewed and extended. The methods are illustrated in some empirical applications and simulations. The empirical applications include macroeconomic data on inflation, financial data on exchange rates and political opinion poll data. It is shown how the methods can be used to measure empirical hazard rates for inflation and deflation. Empirical estimates based on historical US data over the last 60 years indicate that the predominant inflation risks are at low levels (2–6%) and low two-digit levels (10–12%), and that there is …
Linear Regression Limit Theory For Nonstationary Panel Data, Peter C.B. Phillips, Hyungsik Roger Moon
Linear Regression Limit Theory For Nonstationary Panel Data, Peter C.B. Phillips, Hyungsik Roger Moon
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper develops a regression limit theory for nonstationary panel data with large numbers of cross section ( n ) and time series ( T ) observations. The limit theory allows for both sequential limits, wherein T → ∞ followed by n → ∞, and joint limits where T,n → ∞ simultaneously; and the relationship between these multidimensional limits is explored. The panel structures considered allow for no time series cointegration, heterogeneous cointegration, homogeneous cointegration, and near-homogeneous cointegration. The paper explores the existence of long-run average relations between integrated panel vectors when there is no individual time series cointegration and …