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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

An Economy With Personal Currency: Theory And Experimental Evidence, Martin Angerer, Juergen Huber, Martin Shubik, Shyam Sunder Aug 2007

An Economy With Personal Currency: Theory And Experimental Evidence, Martin Angerer, Juergen Huber, Martin Shubik, Shyam Sunder

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Is personal currency issued by participants sufficient to operate an economy efficiently, with no outside or government money? Sahi and Yao (1989) and Sorin (1996) constructed a strategic market game to prove that this is possible. We conduct an experimental game in which each agent issues her personal IOUs, and a costless efficient clearinghouse adjusts the exchange rates among them so the markets always clear. The results suggest that if the information system and clearing are so good as to preclude moral hazard, any form of information asymmetry, and need for trust, the economy operates efficiently at any price level …


Three Minimal Market Institutions With Human And Algorithmic Agents: Theory And Experimental Evidence, Juergen Huber, Martin Shubik, Shyam Sunder Aug 2007

Three Minimal Market Institutions With Human And Algorithmic Agents: Theory And Experimental Evidence, Juergen Huber, Martin Shubik, Shyam Sunder

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We define and examine the performance of three minimal strategic market games (sell-all, buy-sell, and double auction) in laboratory relative to the predictions of theory. Unlike open or partial equilibrium settings of most other experiments, these closed exchange economies have limited amounts of cash to facilitate transactions and include feedback. General equilibrium theory, since it abstracts away from market mechanisms and has no role for money or credit, makes no predictions about how the paths of convergence to the competitive equilibrium may differ across alternative mechanisms. Introduction of markets and money as carriers of process creates the possibility of motion. …


Reputation Effects And Equilibrium Degeneracy In Continuous-Time Games, Eduardo Faingold, Yuliy Sannikov Aug 2007

Reputation Effects And Equilibrium Degeneracy In Continuous-Time Games, Eduardo Faingold, Yuliy Sannikov

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We study a class of continuous-time reputation games between a large player and a population of small players in which the actions of the large player are imperfectly observable. The large player is either a normal type, who behaves strategically, or a behavioral type, who is committed to playing a certain strategy. We provide a complete characterization of the set of sequential equilibrium payoffs of the large player using an ordinary differential equation. In addition, we identify a sufficient condition for the sequential equilibrium to be unique and Markovian in the small players’ posterior belief. An implication of our characterization …


Probabilistic Sophistication And Stochastic Monotonicity In The Savage Framework, Simon Grant, Hatice Ozsoy, Ben Polak Aug 2007

Probabilistic Sophistication And Stochastic Monotonicity In The Savage Framework, Simon Grant, Hatice Ozsoy, Ben Polak

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Machina and Schmeidler (1992) show that probabilistic sophistication can be obtained in a Savage setting without imposing expected utility by dropping Savage’s axiom P2 (sure-thing principle) and strengthening his axiom P4 (weak comparative probability). Their stronger axiom, however, embodies a degree of separability analogous to P2. In this note, we obtain probabilistic sophistication using Savage’s original axiom P4 and a weaker analog of Savage’s P2.


Three Minimal Market Institutions With Human And Algorithmic Agents: Theory And Experimental Evidence, Juergen Huber, Martin Shubik, Shyam Sunder Aug 2007

Three Minimal Market Institutions With Human And Algorithmic Agents: Theory And Experimental Evidence, Juergen Huber, Martin Shubik, Shyam Sunder

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We define and examine three minimal market games (sell-all, buy-sell, and double auction) in the laboratory relative to the predictions of theory. These closed exchange economies have some cash to facilitate transactions, and include feedback. The experiment reveals that (1) the competitive general equilibrium (CGE) and non-cooperative (NCE) models are reasonable anchors to locate most but not all the observed outcomes of the three market mechanisms; (2) outcomes tend to get closer to CGE predictions as the number of players increases; (3) prices and allocations in double auctions deviate persistently from CGE predictions; (4) the outcome paths across the three …


Alfred Marshall's Cardinal Theory Of Value: The Strong Law Of Demand, Donald J. Brown, Caterina Calsamiglia Jul 2007

Alfred Marshall's Cardinal Theory Of Value: The Strong Law Of Demand, Donald J. Brown, Caterina Calsamiglia

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We show that all the fundamental properties of competitive equilibrium in Marshall’s cardinal theory of value, as presented in Note XXI of the mathematical appendix to his Principles of Economics (1890), derive from the Strong Law of Demand. That is, existence, uniqueness, optimality, and global stability of equilibrium prices with respect to tatonnement price adjustment follow from the cyclical monotonicity of the market demand function in the Marshallian general equilibrium model.


Dynamic Marginal Contribution Mechanism, Dirk Bergemann, Juuso Välimäki Jul 2007

Dynamic Marginal Contribution Mechanism, Dirk Bergemann, Juuso Välimäki

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We consider truthful implementation of the socially efficient allocation in a dynamic private value environment in which agents receive private information over time. We propose a suitable generalization of the Vickrey-Clarke-Groves mechanism, based on the marginal contribution of each agent. In the marginal contribution mechanism, the ex post incentive and ex post participations constraints are satisfied for all agents after all histories. It is the unique mechanism satisfying ex post incentive, ex post participation and efficient exit conditions. We develop the marginal contribution mechanism in detail for a sequential auction of a single object in which each bidders learn over …


Marshall's Theory Of Value And The Strong Law Of Demand, Caterina Calsamiglia Jul 2007

Marshall's Theory Of Value And The Strong Law Of Demand, Caterina Calsamiglia

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We show that all the fundamental properties of competitive equilibrium in Marshall’s theory of value, as presented in Note XXI of the mathematical appendix to his Principles of Economics (1890), derive from the Strong Law of Demand. This is, existence, uniqueness, optimality, global stability of equilibrium prices with respect to tantonnement price adjustment and refutability follow from the cyclical monotonicity of the market demand function in the Marshallian general equilibrium model.


The Basic Public Finance Of Public-Private Partnerships, Eduardo Engel, Ronald Fischer, Alexander Galetovic Jul 2007

The Basic Public Finance Of Public-Private Partnerships, Eduardo Engel, Ronald Fischer, Alexander Galetovic

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Public-private partnerships (PPPs) have been justified because they release public funds or save on distortionary taxes. However, the resources saved by a government that does not finance the upfront investment are offset by giving up future revenue flows to the concessionaire. If a PPP can be justified on efficiency grounds, the PPP contract that optimally balances demand risk, userfee distortions and the opportunity cost of public funds has a minimum revenue guarantee and a revenue cap. The optimal contract can be implemented via a competitive auction with reasonable informational requirements. The optimal revenue guarantees, revenue sharing agreements and auction mechanisms …


Information Acquisition In Interdependent Value Auctions, Dirk Bergemann, Xianwen Shi, Juuso Välimäki Jul 2007

Information Acquisition In Interdependent Value Auctions, Dirk Bergemann, Xianwen Shi, Juuso Välimäki

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We consider an auction environment with interdependent values. Each bidder can learn her payoff type through costly information acquisition. We contrast the socially optimal decision to acquire information with the equilibrium solution in which each agent has to privately bear the cost of information acquisition. In the context of the generalized Vickrey-Clarke-Groves mechanism, we establish that the equilibrium level exceeds the socially optimal level of information with positive interdependence. The individual decisions to acquire information are strategic substitutes. The difference between the equilibrium and the efficient level of information acquisition is increasing in the interdependence of the bidders’ valuations and …


Validity Of Subsampling And ‘Plug-In Asymptotic’ Inference For Parameters Defined By Moment Inequalities, Donald W.K. Andrews, Patrik Guggenberger Jul 2007

Validity Of Subsampling And ‘Plug-In Asymptotic’ Inference For Parameters Defined By Moment Inequalities, Donald W.K. Andrews, Patrik Guggenberger

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper considers inference for parameters defined by moment inequalities and equalities. The parameters need not be identified. For a specified class of test statistics, this paper establishes the uniform asymptotic validity of subsampling, m out of n bootstrap, and “plug-in asymptotic” tests and confidence intervals for such parameters. Establishing uniform asymptotic validity is crucial in moment inequality problems because the test statistics of interest have discontinuities in their pointwise asymptotic distributions. The size results are quite general because they hold without specifying the particular form of the moment conditions — only 2 + δ moments finite are required. The …


United States Courts And The Optimal Deterrence Of International Cartels: A Welfarist Perspective On Empagran, Alan O. Sykes Jul 2007

United States Courts And The Optimal Deterrence Of International Cartels: A Welfarist Perspective On Empagran, Alan O. Sykes

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

E. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd. v. Empagran S.A. concerned a private antitrust suit for damages against a global vitamins cartel. The central issue in the litigation was whether foreign plaintiffs injured by the cartel’s conduct abroad could bring suit in U.S. court, an issue that was ultimately resolved in the negative. We take a welfarist perspective on this issue and inquire whether optimal deterrence requires U.S. courts to take subject matter jurisdiction under U.S. law for claims such as those in Empagran. Our analysis considers, in particular, the arguments of various economist amici in favor of jurisdiction and arguments of the …


Robust Virtual Implementation, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris Jun 2007

Robust Virtual Implementation, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

In a general interdependent preference environment, we characterize when two payoff types can be distinguished by their rationalizable strategic choices without any prior knowledge of their beliefs and higher order beliefs. We show that two payoff types are strategically distinguishable if and only if they satisfy a separability condition. The separability condition for each agent essentially requires that there is not too much interdependence in preferences across agents. A social choice function — mapping payoff type profiles to outcomes — can be robustly virtually implemented if there exists a mechanism such that every equilibrium on every type space achieves an …


Exact Distribution Theory In Structural Estimation With An Identity, Peter C.B. Phillips Jun 2007

Exact Distribution Theory In Structural Estimation With An Identity, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Some exact distribution theory is developed for structural equation models with and without identities. The theory includes LIML, IV and OLS. We relate the new results to earlier studies in the literature, including the pioneering work of Bergstrom (1962). General IV exact distribution formulae for a structural equation model without an identity are shown to apply also to models with an identity by specializing along a certain asymptotic parameter sequence. Some of the new exact results are obtained by means of a uniform asymptotic expansion. An interesting consequence of the new theory is that the uniform asymptotic approximation provides the …


Tilted Nonparametric Estimation Of Volatility Functions With Empirical Applications, Peter C.B. Phillips, Ke-Li Xu Jun 2007

Tilted Nonparametric Estimation Of Volatility Functions With Empirical Applications, Peter C.B. Phillips, Ke-Li Xu

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper proposes a novel positive nonparametric estimator of the conditional variance function without reliance on logarithmic or other transformations. The estimator is based on an empirical likelihood modification of conventional local level nonparametric regression applied to squared mean regression residuals. The estimator is shown to be asymptotically equivalent to the local linear estimator in the case of unbounded support but, unlike that estimator, is restricted to be non-negative in finite samples. It is fully adaptive to the unknown conditional mean function. Simulations are conducted to evaluate the finite sample performance of the estimator. Two empirical applications are reported. One …


Limit Theory For Explosively Cointegrated Systems, Peter C.B. Phillips, Tassos Magdalinos Jun 2007

Limit Theory For Explosively Cointegrated Systems, Peter C.B. Phillips, Tassos Magdalinos

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A limit theory is developed for multivariate regression in an explosive cointegrated system. The asymptotic behavior of the least squares estimator of the cointegrating coefficients is found to depend upon the precise relationship between the explosive regressors. When the eigenvalues of the autoregressive matrix are distinct, the centered least squares estimator has an exponential rate of convergence and a mixed normal limit distribution. No central limit theory is applicable here and Gaussian innovations are assumed. On the other hand, when some regressors exhibit common explosive behavior, a different mixed normal limiting distribution is derived with rate of convergence reduced to …


Strategic Distinguishability With An Application To Robust Virtual Implementation, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris Jun 2007

Strategic Distinguishability With An Application To Robust Virtual Implementation, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

In a general interdependent preference environment, we characterize when two payoff types can be distinguished by their rationalizable strategic choices without any prior knowledge of their beliefs and higher order beliefs. We show that two types are strategically distinguishable if and only if they satisfy a separability condition. The separability condition for each agent essentially requires that there is not too much interdependence in preferences across agents. A social choice function — mapping payoff type profiles to outcomes — can be robustly virtually implemented if there exists a mechanism such that every equilibrium on every type space achieves an outcome …


Strategic Distinguishability And Robust Virtual Implementation, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris Jun 2007

Strategic Distinguishability And Robust Virtual Implementation, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

In a general interdependent preference environment, we characterize when two payoff types can be distinguished by their rationalizable strategic choices without any prior knowledge of their beliefs and higher order beliefs. We show that two types are strategically distinguishable if and only if they satisfy a separability condition. The separability condition for each agent essentially requires that there is not too much interdependence in preferences across agents. A social choice function — mapping payoff type profiles to outcomes — can be robustly virtually implemented if there exists a mechanism such that every equilibrium on every type space achieves an outcome …


Historic Turning Points In Real Estate, Robert J. Shiller Jun 2007

Historic Turning Points In Real Estate, Robert J. Shiller

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper looks for markers of ends of real estate booms or busts. The changes in market psychology and related indicators that occurred at real estate market turning points in the United States since the 1980s are compared with changes at turning points in the more distant past. In all these episodes changes in an atmosphere of optimism about the future course of home prices, changes in public interpretation of the boom, as well as evidence of supply response to the high prices of a boom, are noted.


Long Run Covariance Matrices For Fractionally Integrated Processes, Peter C.B. Phillips, Chang Sik Kim Jun 2007

Long Run Covariance Matrices For Fractionally Integrated Processes, Peter C.B. Phillips, Chang Sik Kim

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

An asymptotic expansion is given for the autocovariance matrix of a vector of stationary long-memory processes with memory parameters d satisfying 0 < d < 1/2. The theory is then applied to deliver formulae for the long run covariance matrices of multivariate time series with long memory.


Applications Of Subsampling, Hybrid, And Size-Correction Methods, Donald W.K. Andrews, Patrik Guggenberger May 2007

Applications Of Subsampling, Hybrid, And Size-Correction Methods, Donald W.K. Andrews, Patrik Guggenberger

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper analyzes the properties of subsampling, hybrid subsampling, and size-correction methods in two non-regular models. The latter two procedures are introduced in Andrews and Guggenberger (2005b). The models are non-regular in the sense that the test statistics of interest exhibit a discontinuity in their limit distribution as a function of a parameter in the model. The first model is a linear instrumental variables (IV) model with possibly weak IVs estimated using two-stage least squares (2SLS). In this case, the discontinuity occurs when the concentration parameter is zero. The second model is a linear regression model in which the parameter …


Asymptotics For Stationary Very Nearly Unit Root Processes, Donald W.K. Andrews, Patrik Guggenberger Mar 2007

Asymptotics For Stationary Very Nearly Unit Root Processes, Donald W.K. Andrews, Patrik Guggenberger

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper considers a mean zero stationary first-order autoregressive (AR) model. It is shown that the least squares estimator and t statistic have Cauchy and standard normal asymptotic distributions, respectively, when the AR parameter ρ n is very near to one in the sense that 1 – ρ n = ( n –1 ).


The Limit Of Finite-Sample Size And A Problem With Subsampling, Donald W.K. Andrews, Patrik Guggenberger Mar 2007

The Limit Of Finite-Sample Size And A Problem With Subsampling, Donald W.K. Andrews, Patrik Guggenberger

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper considers inference based on a test statistic that has a limit distribution that is discontinuous in a nuisance parameter or the parameter of interest. The paper shows that subsample, b n < n bootstrap, and standard fixed critical value tests based on such a test statistic often have asymptotic size — defined as the limit of the finite-sample size — that is greater than the nominal level of the tests. We determine precisely the asymptotic size of such tests under a general set of high-level conditions that are relatively easy to verify. The high-level conditions are verified in several examples. Analogous results are established for confidence intervals. The results apply to tests and confidence intervals (i) when a parameter may be near a boundary, (ii) for parameters defined by moment inequalities, (iii) based on super-efficient or shrinkage estimators, (iv) based on post-model selection estimators, (v) in scalar and vector autoregressive models with roots that may be close to unity, (vi) in models with lack of identification at some point(s) in the parameter space, such as models with weak instruments and threshold autoregressive models, (vii) in predictive regression models with nearly-integrated regressors, (viii) for non-differentiable functions of parameters, and (ix) for differentiable functions of parameters that have zero first-order derivative. Examples (i)-(iii) are treated in this paper. Examples (i) and (iv)-(vi) are treated in sequels to this paper, Andrews and Guggenberger (2005a, b). In models with unidentified parameters that are bounded by moment inequalities, i.e., example (ii), certain subsample confidence regions are shown to have asymptotic size equal to their nominal level. In all other examples listed above, some types of subsample procedures do not have asymptotic size equal to their nominal level.


Hybrid And Size-Corrected Subsample Methods, Donald W.K. Andrews, Patrik Guggenberger Mar 2007

Hybrid And Size-Corrected Subsample Methods, Donald W.K. Andrews, Patrik Guggenberger

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper considers the problem of constructing tests and confidence intervals (CIs) that have correct asymptotic size in a broad class of non-regular models. The models considered are non-regular in the sense that standard test statistics have asymptotic distributions that are discontinuous in some parameters. It is shown in Andrews and Guggenberger (2005a) that standard fixed critical value, subsample, and b < n bootstrap methods often have incorrect size in such models. This paper introduces general methods of constructing tests and CIs that have correct size. First, procedures are introduced that are a hybrid of subsample and fixed critical value methods. The resulting hybrid procedures are easy to compute and have correct size asymptotically in many, but not all, cases of interest. Second, the paper introduces size-correction and “plug-in” size-correction methods for fixed critical value, subsample, and hybrid tests. The paper also introduces finite-sample adjustments to the asymptotic results of Andrews and Guggenberger (2005a) for subsample and hybrid methods and employs these adjustments in size-correction. The paper discusses several examples in detail. The examples are: (i) tests when a nuisance parameter may be near a boundary, (ii) CIs in an autoregressive model with a root that may be close to unity, and (iii) tests and CIs based on a post-conservative model selection estimator.


The Limit Of Finite-Sample Size And A Problem With Subsampling, Donald W.K. Andrews, Patrik Guggenberger Mar 2007

The Limit Of Finite-Sample Size And A Problem With Subsampling, Donald W.K. Andrews, Patrik Guggenberger

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper considers inference based on a test statistic that has a limit distribution that is discontinuous in a nuisance parameter or the parameter of interest. The paper shows that subsample, b n < n bootstrap, and standard fixed critical value tests based on such a test statistic often have asymptotic size — defined as the limit of the finite-sample size — that is greater than the nominal level of the tests. We determine precisely the asymptotic size of such tests under a general set of high-level conditions that are relatively easy to verify. The high-level conditions are verified in several examples. Analogous results are established for confidence intervals. The results apply to tests and confidence intervals (i) when a parameter may be near a boundary, (ii) for parameters defined by moment inequalities, (iii) based on super-efficient or shrinkage estimators, (iv) based on post-model selection estimators, (v) in scalar and vector autoregressive models with roots that may be close to unity, (vi) in models with lack of identification at some point(s) in the parameter space, such as models with weak instruments and threshold autoregressive models, (vii) in predictive regression models with nearly-integrated regressors, (viii) for non-differentiable functions of parameters, and (ix) for differentiable functions of parameters that have zero first-order derivative. Examples (i)-(iii) are treated in this paper. Examples (i) and (iv)-(vi) are treated in sequels to this paper, Andrews and Guggenberger (2005a, b). In models with unidentified parameters that are bounded by moment inequalities, i.e., example (ii), certain subsample confidence regions are shown to have asymptotic size equal to their nominal level. In all other examples listed above, some types of subsample procedures do not have asymptotic size equal to their nominal level.


Presidential And Congressional Vote-Share Equations, Ray C. Fair Feb 2007

Presidential And Congressional Vote-Share Equations, Ray C. Fair

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Three vote-share equations are estimated and analyzed in this paper, one for presidential elections, one for on-term House elections, and one for mid-term House elections. The sample period is 1916-2006. Considering the three equations together allows one to test whether the same economic variables affect each and to examine various serial correlation and coattail possibilities. The resulting three equation model can then be analyzed dynamically, which is done in Section 4. The main conclusions are briefly: 1) There is strong evidence that the economy affects all three vote shares and in remarkably similar ways. 2) There is no evidence of …


Models: New Interpretations Of Old Results, Ricardo J. Caballero, Eduardo Engel Feb 2007

Models: New Interpretations Of Old Results, Ricardo J. Caballero, Eduardo Engel

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

What is the relation between infrequent price adjustment and the dynamic response of the aggregate price level to monetary shocks? The answer to this question ranges from a one-to-one link (Calvo, 1983) to no connection whatsoever (Caplin and Spulber, 1987). The purpose of this paper is to provide a unified framework to understand the mechanisms behind this wide range of results. In doing so, we propose new interpretations of key results in this area, which in turn suggest the kind of Ss model that is likely to generate substantial price rigidity. The first result we revisit is Caplin and Spulber’s …


Price Dynamics On A Stock Market With Asymmetric Information, Bernard De Meyer Feb 2007

Price Dynamics On A Stock Market With Asymmetric Information, Bernard De Meyer

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The appearance of a Brownian term in the price dynamics on a stock market was interpreted in [De Meyer, Moussa-Saley (2003)] as a consequence of the informational asymmetries between agents. To take benefit of their private information without revealing it to fast, the informed agents have to introduce a noise on their actions, and all these noises introduced in the day after day transactions for strategic reasons will aggregate in a Brownian Motion. We prove in the present paper that this kind of argument leads not only to the appearance of the Brownian motion, but it also narrows the class …


An Ascending Auction For Interdependent Values: Uniqueness And Robustness To Strategic Uncertainty, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris Jan 2007

An Ascending Auction For Interdependent Values: Uniqueness And Robustness To Strategic Uncertainty, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We consider an single object auction environment with interdependent valuations and a generalized Vickrey–Clark–Groves allocation mechanism that allocates the object almost efficiently in a strict ex post equilibrium. If there is a significant amount of interdependence, there are multiple rationalizable outcomes of this direct mechanism and any other mechanism that allocates the object almost efficiently. This is true whether the agents know about each others’ payoff types or not. We consider an ascending price dynamic version of the generalized VCG mechanism. When there is complete information among the agents of their payoff types, we show that the almost efficient allocation …


Transition Modeling And Econometric Convergence Tests, Peter C.B. Phillips, Donggyu Sul Jan 2007

Transition Modeling And Econometric Convergence Tests, Peter C.B. Phillips, Donggyu Sul

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A new panel data model is proposed to represent the behavior of economies in transition allowing for a wide range of possible time paths and individual heterogeneity. The model has both common and individual specific components and is formulated as a nonlinear time varying factor model. When applied to a micro panel, the decomposition provides flexibility in idiosyncratic behavior over time and across section, while retaining some commonality across the panel by means of an unknown common growth component. This commonality means that when the heterogeneous time varying idiosyncratic components converge over time to a constant, a form of panel …