Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Forward Selection Fama-Macbeth Regression With Higher-Order Asset Pricing Factors, Nicola Borri, Denis Chetverikov, Yukun Liu, Aleh Tsyvinski

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We show that the higher-orders and their interactions of the common sparse linear factors can effectively subsume the factor zoo. To this extend, we propose a forward selection Fama-MacBeth procedure as a method to estimate a high-dimensional stochastic discount factor model, isolating the most relevant higher-order factors. Applying this approach to terms derived from six widely used factors (the Fama-French five-factor model and the momentum factor), we show that the resulting higher-order model with only a small number of selected higher-order terms significantly outperforms traditional benchmarks both in-sample and out-of-sample. Moreover, it effectively subsumes a majority of the factors from …

The Bullwhip: Time-To-Build And Sectoral Fluctuations, Yan Leng, Ernest Liu, Yifei Ren, Tsyvinski Aleh

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We develop a theory of sectoral fluctuations driven by the propagation of demand shocks along supply chains with heterogeneous time-to-build production. We solve the model in closed form. Downstream producers respond directly to current demand. Upstream producers, due to time-to-build delays, respond to anticipated future demand. Consequently, hump-shaped demand shocks to downstream goods propagate and amplify along the supply chain, generating pronounced volatility in upstream sectors and creating the bullwhip effect. Empirically and quantitatively, we show that the bullwhip is significant across downstream sectors that are important for final consumption.

"Firm Selection And Growth In Carbon Offset Markets: Evidence From The Clean Development Mechanism", Qiaoyi Chen, Nicholas Ryan, Daniel Yi Xu

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We study carbon offsets sold by firms in China under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). We find that offset-selling firms, meant to cut carbon emissions, instead increase them by 49% after starting an offset project. In a model of firm investment decisions and offset review, we estimate that CDM firms increase emissions due to both the selection of higher-growth firms into projects (35 pp) and because offset projects themselves boost firm growth and therefore emissions (14 pp). The CDM reduces global surplus by causing damages from increased emissions four times greater than private gains from trade in the offset market.

Bubble Mitigation Policies: Counterfactual Analysis And Treatment Effect Inference, Ye Chen, Peter C.B. Phillips, Shuping Shi

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

To safeguard economic and financial stability policymakers regularly take actions designed to increase resilience to systemic risks and curb speculative market behavior. To assess the effectiveness of such mitigation policies, we introduce a counterfactual approach tailored to accommodate the mildly explosive dynamics that occur during speculative bubbles. We derive asymptotics of the estimated treatment effect under a common factor structure that allows for explosive, I(1), and stationary factors, thereby having applicability to a wide range of prevailing economic conditions. An inferential procedure is proposed for the policy treatment effect that has asymptotic validity and demonstrates satisfactory finite sample performance. An …

Data-Driven Mechanism Design: Jointly Eliciting Preferences And Information, Dirk Bergemann, Marek Bojko, Paul Duetting, Renato Paes Leme, Haifeng Xu, Song Zuo

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We study mechanism design when agents have private preferences and private information about a common payoff-relevant state. We show that standard message-driven mechanisms cannot implement socially efficient allocations when agents have multidimensional types, even under favorable conditions.

To overcome this limitation, we propose data-driven mechanisms that leverage additional post-allocation information, modeled as an estimator of the payoff-relevant state. Our data-driven mechanisms extend the classic Vickrey-Clarke-Groves class. We show that they achieve exact implementation in posterior equilibrium when the state is either fully revealed or the utility is affine in an unbiased estimator. We also show that they achieve approximate implementation …

Semiparametric Cointegrating Rank Selection For Curved Cross Section Time Series, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Cointegrating rank selection is studied in a function space reduced rank regression where the data are time series of cross section curves. A semiparametric approach to rank selection is employed using information criteria suitably modified to take account of the function space context, extending the linear cointegrating model to accommodate cross section data under general forms of dependence. A parametric formulation is employed analogous to recent work on cross section curve autoregression and cointegrating regression. Consistent cointegrating rank estimation is developed by the use of information criteria methods that are extended to the curve time series environment. The asymptotic theory …

Robust Inference For Time Varying Predictability: A Sieve-Ivx Approach, Nan Liu, Peter C.B. Phillips, Yajie Zhang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Predictive regression models are often used to evaluate the predictive capability of economic fundamentals on bond and equity returns. Inferential procedures in these regressions typically employ parameter constancy or piecewise constancy in slope coefficients. Such formulations are prone to misspecification, more especially during periods of disturbance or evolution in prevailing economic and financial conditions, which can lead to size distortion and spurious evidence of predictability. To address these issues the present work proposes a semiparametric predictive regression model with mixed-root regressors and time-varying coefficients that allow for smooth evolution in the generating mechanism over time. For estimation and inference a …

Are Stock Returns And Output Growth Higher Under Democrats?, Ray C. Fair

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Recent literature suggests that both stock returns and economic growth are significantly higher under Democratic presidential administrations. This is a puzzle in that persistent differences in stock returns seem unlikely in efficient markets, and it is not obvious why Democrats should do better. Often these kinds of results go away upon further analysis or more data, and this appears to be true in the present case. In this paper the sample is extended to 28 administrations, fromWilson-1 through Biden. While the mean stock return under the Democrats is higher, none of the differences in means is significant at conventional significance …

Speculative Bubbles In The Recent Ai Boom: Nasdaq And The Magnificent Seven, Rerotlhe B. Basele, Peter C.B. Phillips, Shuping Shi

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The recent artificial intelligence (AI) boom covers a period of rapid innovation and wide adoption of AI intelligence technologies across diverse industries. These developments have fueled an unprecedented frenzy in the Nasdaq, with AI-focused companies experiencing soaring stock prices that raise concerns about speculative bubbles and real-economy consequences. Against this background the present study investigates the formation of speculative bubbles in the Nasdaq stock market with a specific focus on the so-called ‘Magnificent Seven’ (Mag-7) individual stocks during the AI boom, spanning the period January 2017 to January 2025. We apply the real time PSY bubble detection methodology of Phillips …

Bidding With Budgets: Algorithmic And Data-Driven Bids In Digital Advertising, Dirk Bergemann, Alessandro Bonatti, Nicholas Wu

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

In digital advertising, the allocation of sponsored search, sponsored product, or display advertisements is mediated by auctions. The generation of bids in these auctions for attention is increasingly supported by auto-bidding algorithms and platform-provided data. We analyze the equilibrium properties of a sequence of increasingly sophisticated auto-bidding algorithms. First, we consider the equilibrium bidding behavior of an individual advertiser who controls the auto-bidding algorithm through the choice of their budget. Second, we examine the interaction when all bidders use budget-controlled bidding algorithms. Finally, we derive the bidding algorithm that maximizes the platform’s revenue while ensuring all advertisers continue to participate.

Conviction, Incarceration, And Recidivism: Understanding The Revolving Door, John Eric Humphries, Aurélie Ouss, Kamelia Stavreva, Megan Stevenson, Winnie Van Dijk

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Noncarceral conviction is a common outcome of criminal court cases: for every individual incarcerated, there are approximately three who were recently convicted but not sentenced to prison or jail. We extend the binary-treatment judge IV framework to settings with multiple treatments and use it to study the consequences of noncarceral conviction. We outline assumptions under which widely-used 2SLS regressions recover margin-specific treatment effects, relate these assumptions to models of judge decision-making, and derive an expression that provides intuition about the direction and magnitude of asymptotic bias when a key assumption on judge decision-making is not met. We find that noncarceral …

Multidimensional Monotonicity And Economic Applications, Frank Yang, Kai Hao Yang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We characterize the extreme points of multidimensional monotone functions from [0,1]^n to [0,1], as well as the extreme points of the set of one-dimensional marginals of these functions. These characterizations lead to new results in various mechanism design and information design problems, including public good provision with interdependent values; interim efficient bilateral trade mechanisms; asymmetric reduced form auctions; and optimal private private information structure. As another application, we also present a mechanism anti-equivalence theorem for two-agent, two-alternative social choice problems: A mechanism is payoff-equivalent to a deterministic DIC mechanism if and only if they are ex-post equivalent.

The Effect Of Education Policy On Crime: An Intergenerational Perspective, Ulrika Ahrsjö, Costas Meghir, Mårten Palme, Marieke Schnabel

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We study the intergenerational effect of education policy on crime. We use Swedish administrative data that links outcomes across generations with crime records, and we show that the comprehensive school reform, gradually implemented between 1949 and 1962, reduced conviction rates both for the generation directly affected by the reform and for their sons. The reduction in conviction rates occurred in many types of crime. The key mediators of this reduction in child generation are an increase in education and household income and a decrease in crime among their fathers.

Digital Ecosystems And Data Regulation, Andrew Rhodes, Jidong Zhou, Junjie Zhou

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper provides a framework in which a multiproduct ecosystem competes with many single-product firms in both price and innovation. The ecosystem is able to use data collected on one product to improve the quality of its other products. We study the impact of data regulation which either restricts the ecosystem's cross-product data usage, or which requires it to share data with small firms. Each policy induces small firms to innovate more and set higher prices; it also dampens data spillovers within the ecosystem, reduces the ecosystem's incentive to collect data and innovate, and potentially increases its prices. As a …

Supply Chain Disruptions, Supplier Capital, And Financial Constraints, Ernest Liu, Yukun Liu, Vladimir Smirnyagin, Aleh Tsyvinski

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We study the impact of supply chain disruptions on U.S. firms based on the universe of seaborne shipment-level import transactions from 2013 to 2023. The granularity of the data allows us to build an index of firm-level disruptions of international suppliers and introduce a comprehensive set of stylized facts for supply chain relationships in the cross-section of firms. We build a general equilibrium heterogeneous firms model with two types of capital stocks—physical and international supplier capitals. Accumulation of supplier capital is an important endogenous margin of adjustment, and limiting this ability substantially delays recovery, especially in financially constrained firms.

The Economics Of Large Language Models: Token Allocation, Fine-Tuning, And Optimal Pricing, Dirk Bergemann, Alessandro Bonatti, Alex Smolin

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We develop an economic framework to analyze the optimal pricing and product design of Large Language Models (LLM). Our framework captures several key features of LLMs: variable operational costs of processing input and output tokens; the ability to customize models through fine-tuning; and high-dimensional user heterogeneity in terms of task requirements and error sensitivity. In our model, a monopolistic seller offers multiple versions of LLMs through a menu of products. The optimal pricing structure depends on whether token allocation across tasks is contractible and whether users face scale constraints. Users with similar aggregate value-scale characteristics choose similar levels of fine-tuning …

Optimal Pricing Of Cloud Services: Committed Spend Under Demand Uncertainty, Dirk Bergemann, Michael C. Wang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We consider a seller who offers services to a buyer with multi-unit demand. Prior to the realization of demand, the buyer receives a noisy signal of their future demand, and the seller can design contracts based on the reported value of this signal. Thus, the buyer can contract with the service provider for an unknown level of future consumption, such as in the market for cloud computing resources or software services. We characterize the optimal dynamic contract, extending the classic sequential screening framework to a nonlinear and multi-unit setting. The optimal mechanism gives discounts to buyers who report higher signals, …

Robust Pricing For Cloud Computing, Dirk Bergemann, Rahul Deb

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We study the robust sequential screening problem of a monopolist seller of multiple cloud computing services facing a buyer who has private information about his demand distribution for these services. At the time of contracting, the buyer knows the distribution of his demand of various services and the seller simply knows the mean of the buyer’s total demand. We show that a simple “committed spend mechanism” is robustly optimal: it provides the seller with the highest profit guarantee against all demand distributions that have the known total mean demand. This mechanism requires the buyer to commit to a minimum total …

U.S. Infrastructure: 1929-2023, Ray C. Fair

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper examines the history of U.S. infrastructure since 1929 and in the process reports an interesting fact about the U.S. economy. Infrastructure stock as a percent of GDP began a steady decline around 1970, and the government budget deficit became positive and large at roughly the same time. The infrastructure pattern in other countries does not mirror that in the United States, so the United States appears to be a special case. The overall results suggest that the United States became less future oriented beginning around 1970, an increase in the social discount rate. This change has persisted. This …

Intra-Household Welfare Inequality And Household Public Goods, Pierre-André Chiappori, Costas Meghir, Yoko Okuyama

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

In this paper we develop a novel approach to measuring individual welfare within households, recognizing that individuals may have both different preferences (particularly regarding public consumption) and differential access to resources. We construct a money metric measure of welfare that accounts for public goods (by using personalized prices) and the allocation of time. We then use our conceptual framework to analyse intrahousehold inequality in Japan, allowing for the presence of two public goods: expenditures on children and other public goods including housing. We show empirically that women have much stronger preferences for both public goods and this has critical implications …

Intergenerational Welfare Assessments, Sergi Barcons, Eduardo Dávila, Andreas Schaab

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper studies welfare assessments in economies with rich demographic structures. First, we show that perpetual consumption is the only unit that enables interpersonal comparisons in demographically disconnected economies, in which there is no date in which all individuals are concurrently alive. Second, we show that there exist feasible perturbations of Pareto efficient allocations in demographically disconnected economies that feature positive Kaldor-Hicks efficiency gains. Third, we show how welfare gains from reallocating consumption can be separately attributed to an incomplete markets and a demographic component. We use our results to derive new insights in three workhorse intergenerational models: i) Samuelson …

Consumer-Optimal Segmentation In Multi-Product Markets, Dirk Bergemann, Tibor Heumann, Michael C. Wang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We analyze how market segmentation affects consumer welfare when a monopolist can engage in both second-degree price discrimination (through product differentiation) and third-degree price discrimination (through market segmentation). We characterize the consumer-optimal market segmentation and show that it has several striking properties: (1) the market segmentation displays monotonicity—higher-value customers always receive higher quality product than lower-value regardless of their segment and across any segment; and (2) when aggregate demand elasticity exceeds a threshold determined by marginal costs, no segmentation maximizes consumer surplus. Our results demonstrate that strategic market segmentation can benefit consumers even when it enables price discrimination, but these …

Data-Driven Mechanism Design: Jointly Eliciting Preferences And Information, Dirk Bergemann, Marek Bojko, Paul Dütting, Renato Paes Leme, Haifeng Xu, Song Zuo

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We study mechanism design when agents hold private information about both their preferences and a common payoff-relevant state. We show that standard message-driven mechanisms cannot implement socially efficient allocations when agents have multidimensional types, even under favorable conditions. To overcome this limitation, we propose data-driven mechanisms that leverage additional post-allocation information, modeled as an estimator of the pay-off relevant state. Our data-driven mechanisms extend the classic Vickrey-Clarke-Groves class. We show that they achieve exact implementation in posterior equilibrium when the state is either fully revealed or the utility is linear in an unbiased estimator. We also show that they achieve …

Community Networks, Entrepreneurship And The Process Of Economic Development, Ruochen Dai, Dilip Mookherjee, Kaivan Munshi, Xiaobo Zhang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This research examines the determinants of entrepreneurship in China’s transition from agriculture to domestic production in the 1990’s and the subsequent transition to exporting in the 2000’s. The model that we develop and test to describe these transitions incorporates a productivity enhancing role for community (birth county) networks, which emerge in response to weak market institutions at early stages of economic development. Using administrative data covering the universe of registered firms over the 1994-2012 period and the universe of exporters over the 2002-2012 period, we provide causal evidence that these networks of firms were active and effective in increasing the …

Social Status, Economic Development And Female Labor Force (Non) Participation, Kaivan Munshi, Swapnil Singh

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This research provides a status-based explanation for the high rates of female labor force nonparticipation (FLFNP) and the sustained increase in these rates over time that have been documented in many developing economies. This explanation is based on the idea that households or ethnic groups can signal their wealth, and thereby increase their social status, by withdrawing women from the labor force. If the value of social status or the willingness to bear the signaling cost is increasing with economic development, then this would explain the persistent increase in FLFNP. To provide empirical support for this argument, we utilize two …

Entropy-Regularized Optimal Transport In Information Design, Jorge Justiniano, Andreas Kleiner, Benny Moldovanu, Martin Rumpf, Philipp Strack

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

In this paper, we explore a scenario where a sender provides an information policy and a receiver, upon observing a realization of this policy, decides whether to take a particular action, such as making a purchase. The sender’s objective is to maximize her utility derived from the receiver’s action, and she achieves this by careful selection of the information policy. Building on the work of Kleiner et al., our focus lies specifically on information policies that are associated with power diagram partitions of the underlying domain. To address this problem, we employ entropy-regularized optimal transport, which enables us to develop …

Inference For Regression With Variables Generated By Ai Or Machine Learning, Laura Battaglia, Timothy Christensen, Stephen Hansen, Szymon Sacher

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

It has become common practice for researchers to use AI-powered information retrieval algorithms or other machine learning methods to estimate variables of economic interest, then use these estimates as covariates in a regression model. We show both theoretically and empirically that naively treating AI- and ML-generated variables as “data” leads to biased estimates and invalid inference. We propose two methods to correct bias and perform valid inference: (i) an explicit bias correction with bias-corrected confidence intervals, and (ii) joint maximum likelihood estimation of the regression model and the variables of interest. Through several applications, we demonstrate that the common approach …

Distributional Impacts Of The Changing Retail Landscape, Yue Cao, Judith A. Chevalier, Jessie Handbury, Hayden Parsley, Kevin R. Williams

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A common tactic to estimate willingness-to-travel exploits variation in the relative proximity of consumers to supplier locations. The validity of these estimates relies on the exogeneity of that consumer-supplier distance. We argue that distance to suppliers is endogenous because suppliers strategically choose locations to target consumers; we introduce a novel instrument to address this form of endogeneity. Using geolocation data from millions of smartphones, we estimate consumer preferences for specific retail chains across income groups and regions. We show that accounting for distance endogeneity significantly alters willingness-to-travel measures. Contrary to the prevailing “retail apocalypse” narrative, we find that consumer surplus …

Optimal Unilateral Carbon Policy, Samuel Kortum, David A. Weisbach

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Climate policy by a coalition of countries can shift activities—extraction, production, and consumption—to regions outside the coalition. We build a stylized general-equilibrium model of trade and carbon externalities to derive a coalition’s optimal Pareto-improving policy in such an environment. It can be implemented through: (i) a tax on fossil-fuel extraction at a rate equal to the global marginal harm from carbon emissions, (ii) a tax on imports of energy and goods, and a rebate of the tax on exports of energy but not goods, all at a lower rate per unit of carbon than the extraction tax rate, and (iii) …

Changes In Marital Sorting: Theory And Evidence From The Us, Pierre-André Chiappori, Monica Costa Dias, Costas Meghir, Hanzhe Zhang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Positive assortative matching refers to the tendency of individuals with similar characteristics to form partnerships. Measuring the extent to which assortative matching differs between two economies is challenging when the marginal distributions of the characteristic along which sorting takes place (e.g., education) change for either or both sexes. We show how the use of different measures can generate different conclusions. We provide axiomatic characterization for measures such as the odds ratio, normalized trace, and likelihood ratio, and provide a structural economic interpretation of the odds ratio. We then use our approach to consider how marital sorting by education changed between …