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Articles 1021 - 1050 of 2930
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Cost Innovation: Schumpeter And Equilibrium. Part 1. Robinson Crusoe, Martin Shubik, William D. Sudderth
Cost Innovation: Schumpeter And Equilibrium. Part 1. Robinson Crusoe, Martin Shubik, William D. Sudderth
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Modifying a parallel dynamic programming approach to a simple deterministic economy, we consider the effect of an innovation in the means of production. The success of the innovation is assumed to depend on the availability of financing, locus of financial control, the amount of resources invested, and on a random event. The relationship between money and physical assets is critical. In this first part stress is laid on the innovation behavior of Robinson Crusoe in a premonetary economy, then on his actions in a monetary economy in partial equilibrium. Part 2 considers the closed monetary economy with several differentiated agents.
Identification In A Class Of Nonparametric Simultaneous Equations Models, Steven T. Berry, Philip A. Haile
Identification In A Class Of Nonparametric Simultaneous Equations Models, Steven T. Berry, Philip A. Haile
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We consider identification in a class of nonseparable nonparametric simultaneous equations models introduced by Matzkin (2008). These models combine standard exclusion restrictions with a requirement that each structural error enter through a “residual index” function. We provide constructive proofs of identification under several sets of conditions, demonstrating some of the available tradeoffs between conditions on the support of the instruments, restrictions on the joint distribution of the structural errors, and restrictions on the form of the residual index function.
Economists As Worldly Philosophers, Robert J. Shiller, Virginia M. Shiller
Economists As Worldly Philosophers, Robert J. Shiller, Virginia M. Shiller
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
While leading figures in the early history of economics conceived of it as inseparable from philosophy and other humanities, there has been movement, especially in recent decades, towards its becoming an essentially technical field with narrowly specialized areas of inquiry. Certainly, specialization has allowed for great progress in economic science. However, recent events surrounding the financial crisis support the arguments of some that economics needs to develop forums for interdisciplinary interaction and to aspire to broader vision.
Identification In A Class Of Nonparametric Simultaneous Equations Models, Steven T. Berry, Philip A. Haile
Identification In A Class Of Nonparametric Simultaneous Equations Models, Steven T. Berry, Philip A. Haile
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We consider identification in a class of nonseparable nonparametric simultaneous equations models introduced by Matzkin (2008). These models combine standard exclusion restrictions with a requirement that each structural error enter through a “residual index” function. We provide constructive proofs of identification under several sets of conditions, demonstrating tradeoffs between restrictions on the support of the instruments, restrictions on the joint distribution of the structural errors, and restrictions on the form of the residual index function.
A Simple Test For Identification In Gmm Under Conditional Moment Restrictions, Francesco Bravo, Juan Carlos Escanciano, Taisuke Otsu
A Simple Test For Identification In Gmm Under Conditional Moment Restrictions, Francesco Bravo, Juan Carlos Escanciano, Taisuke Otsu
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper proposes a simple, fairly general, test for global identification of unconditional moment restrictions implied from point-identified conditional moment restrictions. The test is based on the Hausdorff distance between an estimator that is consistent even under global identification failure of the unconditional moment restrictions, and an estimator of the identified set of the unconditional moment restrictions. The proposed test has a chi-squared limiting distribution and is also able to detect weak identification alternatives. Some Monte Carlo experiments show that the proposed test has competitive finite sample properties already for moderate sample sizes.
Identification In A Class Of Nonparametric Simultaneous Equations Models, Steven T. Berry, Philip A. Haile
Identification In A Class Of Nonparametric Simultaneous Equations Models, Steven T. Berry, Philip A. Haile
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We consider identification in a class of nonparametric simultaneous equations models introduced by Matzkin (2008). These models combine standard exclusion restrictions with a requirement that each structural error enter through a “residual index” function. We provide constructive proofs of identification under several sets of conditions, demonstrating tradeoffs between restrictions on the support of the instruments, shape restrictions on the joint distribution of the structural errors, and restrictions on the form of the residual index function.
Large Deviations Of Generalized Method Of Moments And Empirical Likelihood Estimators, Taisuke Otsu
Large Deviations Of Generalized Method Of Moments And Empirical Likelihood Estimators, Taisuke Otsu
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper studies large deviation properties of the generalized method of moments and generalized empirical likelihood estimators for moment restriction models. We consider two cases for the data generating probability measure: the model assumption and local deviations from the model assumption. For both cases, we derive conditions where these estimators have exponentially small error probabilities for point estimation.
Wealth Effects Revisited, 1978-2009, Karl E. Case, John M. Quigley, Robert J. Shiller
Wealth Effects Revisited, 1978-2009, Karl E. Case, John M. Quigley, Robert J. Shiller
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We re-examine the link between changes in housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumer spending. We extend a panel of U.S. states observed quarterly during the seventeen-year period, 1982 through 1999, to the thirty-one year period, 1978 through 2009. Using techniques reported previously, we impute the aggregate value of owner-occupied housing, the value of financial assets, and measures of aggregate consumption for each of the geographic units over time. We estimate regression models in levels, first differences and in error-correction form, relating per capita consumption to per capita income and wealth. We find a statistically significant and rather large effect of …
Moderate Deviations Of Generalized Method Of Moments And Empirical Likelihood Estimators, Taisuke Otsu
Moderate Deviations Of Generalized Method Of Moments And Empirical Likelihood Estimators, Taisuke Otsu
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper studies moderate deviation behaviors of the generalized method of moments and generalized empirical likelihood estimators for generalized estimating equations, where the number of equations can be larger than the number of unknown parameters. We consider two cases for the data generating probability measure: the model assumption and local contaminations or deviations from the model assumption. For both cases, we characterize the first-order terms of the moderate deviation error probabilities of these estimators. Our moderate deviation analysis complements the existing literature of the local asymptotic analysis and misspecification analysis for estimating equations, and is useful to evaluate power and …
Inconsistent Var Regression With Common Explosive Roots, Peter C.B. Phillips, Tassos Magdalinos
Inconsistent Var Regression With Common Explosive Roots, Peter C.B. Phillips, Tassos Magdalinos
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Nielsen (2009) shows that vector autoregression is inconsistent when there are common explosive roots with geometric multiplicity greater than unity. This paper discusses that result, provides a co-explosive system extension and an illustrative example that helps to explain the finding, gives a consistent instrumental variable procedure, and reports some simulations. Some exact limit distribution theory is derived and a useful new reverse martingale central limit theorem is proved.
Efficient Search By Committee, Dirk Bergemann, Juuso Välimäki
Efficient Search By Committee, Dirk Bergemann, Juuso Välimäki
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This note constructs an efficient mechanism for finding the best candidate for a committee from a sequence of potential candidates. Committee members have independent private values information about the quality of the candidate. The mechanism selects the best candidate according to the standard utilitarian welfare criterion. Furthermore, the mechanism can be modified to have a balanced budget.
A World Macro Saving Fact And An Explanation, Ray C. Fair
A World Macro Saving Fact And An Explanation, Ray C. Fair
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The world macro saving fact concerns the total financial saving of the world’s private sector divided by world GDP. Relative to changes before 1994, there was a huge fall in this ratio between 1995 and 2000, a huge increase between 2000 and 2003, a huge fall between 2003 and 2006, and a huge increase between 2006 and 2009. This fact is documented in this paper. The paper also shows that the fluctuations in this ratio are highly correlated with fluctuations in world stock and housing prices. It thus appears that much of the variation in the world private saving rate …
Bias In Estimating Multivariate And Univariate Diffusions, Xiaohu Wang, Peter C.B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Bias In Estimating Multivariate And Univariate Diffusions, Xiaohu Wang, Peter C.B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Multivariate continuous time models are now widely used in economics and finance. Empirical applications typically rely on some process of discretization so that the system may be estimated with discrete data. This paper introduces a framework for discretizing linear multivariate continuous time systems that includes the commonly used Euler and trapezoidal approximations as special cases and leads to a general class of estimators for the mean reversion matrix. Asymptotic distributions and bias formulae are obtained for estimates of the mean reversion parameter. Explicit expressions are given for the discretization bias and its relationship to estimation bias in both multivariate and …
Specification Testing For Nonlinear Cointegrating Regression, Qiying Wang, Peter C.B. Phillips
Specification Testing For Nonlinear Cointegrating Regression, Qiying Wang, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We provide a limit theory for a general class of kernel smoothed U statistics that may be used for specification testing in time series regression with nonstationary data. The framework allows for linear and nonlinear models of cointegration and regressors that have autoregressive unit roots or near unit roots. The limit theory for the specification test depends on the self intersection local time of a Gaussian process. A new weak convergence result is developed for certain partial sums of functions involving nonstationary time series that converges to the intersection local time process. This result is of independent interest and useful …
First Difference Mle And Dynamic Panel Estimation, Chirok Han, Peter C.B. Phillips
First Difference Mle And Dynamic Panel Estimation, Chirok Han, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
First difference maximum likelihood (FDML) seems an attractive estimation methodology in dynamic panel data modeling because differencing eliminates fixed effects and, in the case of a unit root, differencing transforms the data to stationarity, thereby addressing both incidental parameter problems and the possible effects of nonstationarity. This paper draws attention to certain pathologies that arise in the use of FDML that have gone unnoticed in the literature and that affect both finite sample peformance and asymptotics. FDML uses the Gaussian likelihood function for first differenced data and parameter estimation is based on the whole domain over which the log-likelihood is …
Folklore Theorems, Implicit Maps And New Unit Root Limit Theory, Peter C.B. Phillips
Folklore Theorems, Implicit Maps And New Unit Root Limit Theory, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The delta method and continuous mapping theorem are among the most extensively used tools in asymptotic derivations in econometrics. Extensions of these methods are provided for sequences of functions, which are commonly encountered in applications, and where the usual methods sometimes fail. Important examples of failure arise in the use of simulation based estimation methods such as indirect inference. The paper explores the application of these methods to the indirect inference estimator (IIE) in first order autoregressive estimation. The IIE uses a binding function that is sample size dependent. Its limit theory relies on a sequence-based delta method in the …
Revealed Preferences For Risk And Ambiguity, Donald J. Brown, Chandra Erdman, Kirsten Ling, Laurie Santos
Revealed Preferences For Risk And Ambiguity, Donald J. Brown, Chandra Erdman, Kirsten Ling, Laurie Santos
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We replicate the essentials of the Huettel et al. (2006) experiment on choice under uncertainty with 30 Yale undergraduates, where subjects make 200 pair-wise choices between risky and ambiguous lotteries. Inferences about the independence of economic preferences for risk and ambiguity are derived from estimation of a mixed logit model, where the choice probabilities are functions of two random effects: the proxies for risk-aversion and ambiguity-aversion. [Our principal empirical finding is that we cannot reject the null hypothesis that risk and ambiguity are independent in economic choice under uncertainty. This finding is consistent with the hypothesized independence of the neural …
Mechanism Design With Limited Information: The Case Of Nonlinear Pricing, Dirk Bergemann, Ji Shen, Yun Xu, Edmund M. Yeh
Mechanism Design With Limited Information: The Case Of Nonlinear Pricing, Dirk Bergemann, Ji Shen, Yun Xu, Edmund M. Yeh
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We analyze the canonical nonlinear pricing model with limited information. A seller offers a menu with a finite number of choices to a continuum of buyers with a continuum of possible valuations. By revealing an underlying connection to quantization theory, we derive the optimal finite menu for the socially efficient and the revenue-maximizing mechanism. In both cases, we provide an estimate of the loss resulting from the usage of a finite n-class menu. We show that the losses converge to zero at a rate proportional to 1/n2 asn becomes large.
Estimation And Inference With Weak, Semi-Strong, And Strong Identification, Donald W.K. Andrews, Xu Cheng
Estimation And Inference With Weak, Semi-Strong, And Strong Identification, Donald W.K. Andrews, Xu Cheng
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper analyzes the properties of standard estimators, tests, and confidence sets (CS’s) in a class of models in which the parameters are unidentified or weakly identified in some parts of the parameter space. The paper also introduces methods to make the tests and CS’s robust to such identification problems. The results apply to a class of extremum estimators and corresponding tests and CS’s, including maximum likelihood (ML), least squares (LS), quantile, generalized method of moments (GMM), generalized empirical likelihood (GEL), minimum distance (MD), and semi-parametric estimators. The consistency/lack-of-consistency and asymptotic distributions of the estimators are established under a full …
Interdependent Preferences And Strategic Distinguishability, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris, Satoru Takahashi
Interdependent Preferences And Strategic Distinguishability, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris, Satoru Takahashi
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
A universal type space of interdependent expected utility preference types is constructed from higher-order preference hierarchies describing (i) an agent’s (unconditional) preferences over a lottery space; (ii) the agent’s preference over Anscombe-Aumann acts conditional on the unconditional preferences; and so on. Two types are said to be strategically indistinguishable if they have an equilibrium action in common in any mechanism that they play. We show that two types are strategically indistinguishable if and only if they have the same preference hierarchy. We examine how this result extends to alternative solution concepts and strategic relations between types.
Semiparametric Estimation In Time Series Of Simultaneous Equations, Jiti Gao, Peter C.B. Phillips
Semiparametric Estimation In Time Series Of Simultaneous Equations, Jiti Gao, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
A system of vector semiparametric nonlinear time series models is studied with possible dependence structures and nonstationarities in the parametric and nonparametric components. The parametric regressors may be endogenous while the nonparametric regressors are strictly exogenous and represent trends. The parametric regressors may be stationary or nonstationary and the nonparametric regressors are nonstationary time series. This framework allows for the nonparametric treatment of stochastic trends and subsumes many practical cases. Semiparametric least squares (SLS) estimation is considered and its asymptotic properties are derived. Due to endogeneity in the parametric regressors, SLS is generally inconsistent for the parametric component and a …
Dating The Timeline Of Financial Bubbles During The Subprime Crisis, Peter C.B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Dating The Timeline Of Financial Bubbles During The Subprime Crisis, Peter C.B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
A new recursive regression methodology is introduced to analyze the bubble characteristics of various financial time series during the subprime crisis. The methods modify a technique proposed in Phillips, Wu and Yu (2010) and provide a technology for identifying bubble behavior and consistent dating of their origination and collapse. The tests also serve as an early warning diagnostic of bubble activity. Seven relevant financial series are investigated, including three financial assets (the Nasdaq index, home price index and asset-backed commercial paper), two commodities (the crude oil price and platinum price), one bond rate (Baa), and one exchange rate (Pound/USD). Statistically …
The Mysteries Of Trend, Peter C.B. Phillips
The Mysteries Of Trend, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Trends are ubiquitous in economic discourse, play a role in much economic theory, and have been intensively studied in econometrics over the last three decades. Yet the empirical economist, forecaster, and policy maker have little guidance from theory about the source and nature of trend behavior, even less guidance about practical formulations, and are heavily reliant on a limited class of stochastic trend, deterministic drift, and structural break models to use in applications. A vast econometric literature has emerged but the nature of trend remains elusive. In spite of being the dominant characteristic in much economic data, having a role …
Interdependent Preferences And Strategic Distinguishability, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris, Satoru Takahashi
Interdependent Preferences And Strategic Distinguishability, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris, Satoru Takahashi
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We study agents whose expected utility preferences are interdependent for informational or psychological reasons. We characterize when two types can be “strategically distinguished” in the sense that they are guaranteed to behave differently in some finite mechanism. We show that two types are strategically distinguishable if and only if they have different hierarchies of interdependent preferences. The same characterization applies for rationalizability, equilibrium, and any interim solution concept in between. Our results generalize and unify results of Abreu and Matsushima (1992), who characterize strategic distinguishability on fixed finite type spaces, and Dekel, Fudenberg, and Morris (2006), (2007), who characterize strategic …
Identifying Finite Mixtures In Econometric Models, Marc Henry, Yuichi Kitamura, Bernard Salanié
Identifying Finite Mixtures In Econometric Models, Marc Henry, Yuichi Kitamura, Bernard Salanié
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We consider partial identification of finite mixture models in the presence of an observable source of variation in the mixture weights that leaves component distributions unchanged, as is the case in large classes of econometric models. We first show that when the number J of component distributions is known a priori, the family of mixture models compatible with the data is a subset of a J ( J – 1)-dimensional space. When the outcome variable is continuous, this subset is defined by linear constraints which we characterize exactly. Our identifying assumption has testable implications which we spell out for J …
Nonlinear Cointegrating Regression Under Weak Identification, Xiaoxia Shi, Peter C.B. Phillips
Nonlinear Cointegrating Regression Under Weak Identification, Xiaoxia Shi, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
An asymptotic theory is developed for a weakly identified cointegrating regression model in which the regressor is a nonlinear transformation of an integrated process. Weak identification arises from the presence of a loading coefficient for the nonlinear function that may be close to zero. In that case, standard nonlinear cointegrating limit theory does not provide good approximations to the finite sample distributions of nonlinear least squares estimators, resulting in potentially misleading inference. A new local limit theory is developed that approximates the finite sample distributions of the estimators uniformly well irrespective of the strength of the identification. An important technical …
Interdependent Preferences And Strategic Distinguishability, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris, Satoru Takahashi
Interdependent Preferences And Strategic Distinguishability, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris, Satoru Takahashi
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
A universal type space of interdependent expected utility preference types is constructed from higher-order preference hierarchies describing (i) an agent’s (unconditional) preferences over a lottery space; (ii) the agent’s preference over Anscombe-Aumann acts conditional on the unconditional preferences; and so on. Two types are said to be strategically indistinguishable if they have an equilibrium action in common in any mechanism that they play. We show that two types are strategically indistinguishable if and only if they have the same preference hierarchy. We examine how this result extends to alternative solution concepts and strategic relations between types.
Interdependent Preferences And Strategic Distinguishability, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris, Satoru Takahashi
Interdependent Preferences And Strategic Distinguishability, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris, Satoru Takahashi
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We identify a universal type space of possible interdependent (expected utility) preferences of a group of agents satisfying two criteria. First, a type consists of a “detail free” description, in a natural language, of the agents’ interdependent preferences. Second, distinct types in the universal type space must be “strategically distinguishable” in the sense that there must exist a mechanism where those types are guaranteed to behave differently in equilibrium. Our results generalize and unify results of Abreu and Matsushima (1992b) (who characterized strategic distinguishability on fixed finite type spaces) and Dekel, Fudenberg, and Morris (2006), (2007) (who characterized strategic distinguishability …
History-Disappointment Risk Attitude, David Dillenberger, Kareen Rozen
History-Disappointment Risk Attitude, David Dillenberger, Kareen Rozen
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We propose a model of history-dependent risk attitude, allowing a decision maker’s risk attitude to be affected by his history of disappointments and elations. The decision maker recursively evaluates compound risks, classifying realizations as disappointing or elating using a threshold rule. We establish equivalence between the model and two cognitive biases: risk attitudes are reinforced by experiences (one is more risk averse after disappointment than after elation) and there is a primacy effect (early outcomes have the greatest impact on risk attitude). In dynamic asset pricing, the model yields volatile, path-dependent prices.
Should Auctions Be Transparent?, Dirk Bergemann, Johannes Hörner
Should Auctions Be Transparent?, Dirk Bergemann, Johannes Hörner
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We investigate the role of market transparency in repeated first-price auctions. We consider a setting with independent private and persistent values. We analyze three distinct disclosure regimes regarding the bid and award history. In the minimal disclosure regime each bidder only learns privately whether he won or lost the auction. In equilibrium the allocation is efficient and the minimal disclosure regime does not give rise to pooling equilibria. In contrast, in disclosure settings where either all or only the winner’s bids are public, an inefficient pooling equilibrium with low revenues exists.