Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

The Financialization Of Recession Response, Aaron Klein

Journal of Financial Crises

This paper analyzes economic policy responses to the COVID-19-induced recession, focusing on the American policy response. Despite widespread political distrust between the two parties sharing control of the government and the timing of the upcoming presidential election, America’s political system was able to enact a massive policy response that reduced the severity of the recession. This political response happened faster than any automatic policy response would have, based on the delays in data reporting. The economic policies enacted continued America’s trend toward financialization of fiscal policy. The Federal Reserve and America’s private banking and financial systems were heavily relied upon …

Robust Inference On Correlation Under General Heterogeneity, Liudas Giraitis, Yugei Li, Peter C. B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Considerable evidence in past research shows size distortion in standard tests for zero autocorrelation or cross-correlation when time series are not independent identically distributed random variables, pointing to the need for more robust procedures. Recent tests for serial correlation and cross-correlation in Dalla, Giraitis, and Phillips (2022) provide a more robust approach, allowing for heteroskedasticity and dependence in un-correlated data under restrictions that require a smooth, slowly-evolving deterministic heteroskedasticity process. The present work removes those restrictions and validates the robust testing methodology for a wider class of heteroskedastic time series models and innovations. The updated analysis given here enables more …

Heterogeneous Paths Of Industrialization, Federico Huneeus, Richard Rogerson

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Industrialization experiences differ substantially across countries. We use a benchmark model of structural change to shed light on the sources of this heterogeneity and, in particular, the phenomenon of premature deindustrialization. Our analysis leads to three key findings. First, benchmark models of structural change robustly generate hump-shaped patterns for the evolution of the industrial sector. Second, heterogeneous patterns of catch-up in sectoral productivities across countries can generate variation in industrialization experiences similar to those found in the data, including premature deindustrialization. Third, differences in the rate of agricultural productivity growth across economies can account for the majority of the variation …

Marriage, Labor Supply And The Dynamics Of The Social Safety Net, Hamish Low, Costas Meghir, Luigi Pistaferri, Alessandra Voena

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The 1996 US welfare reform introduced time limits on welfare receipt. We use quasi-experimental evidence and a lifecycle model of marriage, divorce, program participation, labor supply and savings to understand the impact of time limits on behavior and well-being. Time limits cause women to defer claiming in anticipation of future needs, an effect that depends on the probabilities of marriage and divorce. Time limits cost women 0.5% of life-time consumption, net of revenue savings redistributed by reduced taxation, with some groups affected much more. Expectations over future marital status are important determinants of the value of the social safety net.

Congregational Music As Phatic Communication: Affect, Atmosphere, And Relational Ways Of Listening And Being, Anna E. Nekola

Yale Journal of Music & Religion

Much of the scholarship of congregational music focuses on participatory music in organized corporate worship. This article draws on theories of communication and affect to examine the secondary, background music that happens alongside other events in a worship service or in places other than the space of the sanctuary. Instead of understanding affects as an individual emotion, this article argues that music is made meaningful through a socio-cultural and relational affective process. This in turn enables one to understand how musics, particularly secondary non-participatory musics, work beyond language and representation in phatic ways that can engender powerful feelings of human …

The Employment Effects Of Mobile Internet In Developing Countries, Gaurav Chiplunkar, Pinelopi K. Goldberg

Discussion Papers

We examine the employment effects of 3G mobile internet expansion in developing countries. We find that 3G significantly increases the labor force participation rate of women and the employment rates of both men and women. Our results suggest that 3G affects the type of jobs and there is a distinct gender dimension to these effects. Men transition away from unpaid agricultural work into operating small agricultural enterprises, while women take more unpaid jobs, especially in agriculture, and operate more small businesses in all sectors. Both men and women are more likely to work in wage jobs in the service sector.

More Roads Or Public Transit? Insights From Measuring City-Center Accessibility, Lucas Conwell, Fabian Eckert, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak

Discussion Papers

We propose a theory-inspired measure of the accessibility of a city’s center: the size of the surrounding area from which it can be reached within a specific time. Using publicly-available optimal routing software, we compute these ”accessibility zones” for the 109 largest American and European cities, separately for cars and public transit commutes. Compared to European cities, US cities are half as accessible via public transit and twice as accessible via cars. Car accessibility zones are always larger than public transit zones, making US cities more accessible overall. However, US cities’ car orientation comes at the cost of less green …

Unified Factor Model Estimation And Inference Under Short And Long Memory, Shuyao Ke, Peter C. B. Phillips, Liangjun Su

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper studies a linear panel data model with interactive fixed effects wherein regressors, factors and idiosyncratic error terms are all stationary but with potential long memory. The setup involves a new factor model formulation for which weakly dependent regressors, factors and innovations are embedded as a special case. Standard methods based on principal component decomposition and least squares estimation, as in Bai (2009), are found to suffer bias correction failure because the order of magnitude of the bias is determined in a complex manner by the memory parameters. To cope with this failure and to provide a simple implementable …

Robust Testing For Explosive Behavior With Strongly Dependent Errors, Yiu Lim Lui, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A heteroskedasticity-autocorrelation robust (HAR) test statistic is proposed to test for the presence of explosive roots in financial or real asset prices when the equation errors are strongly dependent. Limit theory for the test statistic is developed and extended to heteroskedastic models. The new test has stable size properties unlike conventional test statistics that typically lead to size distortion and inconsistency in the presence of strongly dependent equation errors. The new procedure can be used to consistently time-stamp the origination and termination of an explosive episode under similar conditions of long memory errors. Simulations are conducted to assess the finite …

Rural-Urban Migration And The Re-Organization Of Agriculture, Raahil Madhok, Frederik Noack, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, Olivier Deschenes

Discussion Papers

This paper studies the response of agricultural production to rural labor loss during the process of urbanization. Using household microdata from India and exogenous variation in migration induced by urban income shocks interacted with distance to cities, we document sharp declines in crop production among migrant-sending households residing near cities. Households with migration opportunities do not substitute agricultural labour with capital, nor do they adopt new agricultural machinery. Instead, they divest from agriculture altogether and cultivate less land. We use a two-sector general equilibrium model with crop and land markets to trace the ensuing spatial reorganization of agriculture. Other non-migrant …

Rural-Urban Migration And The Re-Organization Of Agriculture, Raahil Madhok, Frederik Noack, Ahmed Musfiq Mobarak, Olivier Deschenes

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper studies the response of agricultural production to rural labor loss during the process of urbanization. Using household microdata from India and exogenous variation in migration induced by urban income shocks interacted with distance to cities, we document sharp declines in crop production among migrant-sending households residing near cities. Households with migration opportunities do not substitute agricultural labour with capital, nor do they adopt new agricultural machinery. Instead, they divest from agriculture altogether and cultivate less land. We use a two-sector general equilibrium model with crop and land markets to trace the ensuing spatial reorganization of agriculture. Other non-migrant …

Restrictions On Migration Create Gender Inequality: The Story Of China's Left-Behind Children, Xuwen Gao, Wenquan Liang, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, Ran Song

Discussion Papers

About 11% of the Chinese population are rural-urban migrants, and the vast

majority of them (124 million people) possess a rural hukou which severely

restrict their children’s access to urban public schools. As a result, 61 million

children are left behind in rural areas. We use a regression-discontinuity

design based on school enrollment age cutoffs to document that migrants are

significantly more likely to leave middle-school-aged daughters behind in poor

rural areas without either parent present when schooling becomes expensive,

compared to middle-school-aged sons. The effect is larger when the daughter

has a male sibling. Migrant parents send significantly less …

Lessons Learned: Kevin Warsh, Matthew A. Lieber

Journal of Financial Crises

As senior deputy director of the Division of Supervision and Consumer Protection at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), Spoth led examinations, enforcement actions, problem bank remediations, and failure resolutions, among a range of responsibilities. During the Global Financial Crisis, he was on the front lines of fast-moving policy discussions and actions to help stabilize the financial system, and he oversaw the closure and restructuring of some of the nation’s largest banks. This abstract is based on an interview with Spoth on February 4, 2021.

Lessons Learned: Christopher Spoth, Sandra Ward

Journal of Financial Crises

As senior deputy director of the Division of Supervision and Consumer Protection at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), Spoth led examinations, enforcement actions, problem bank remediations, and failure resolutions, among a range of responsibilities. During the Global Financial Crisis, he was on the front lines of fast-moving policy discussions and actions to help stabilize the financial system, and he oversaw the closure and restructuring of some of the nation’s largest banks. This abstract is based on an interview with Spoth on February 4, 2021.

Lessons Learned: Brian Sack, Sandra Ward

Journal of Financial Crises

Charged with overseeing the implementation of the asset-purchase programs and liquidity facilities in his roles as executive vice president of the Markets Group and manager of the System Open Market Account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY), Brian Sack played a critical role in keeping markets functioning during the years 2009–2012. He served as an adviser to top policymakers, and, in addition to implementing the various programs designed to stabilize financial conditions, he monitored their impact and measured their performance. This Lessons Learned summary is based on an interview with Sack on November 13, 2020.

Lessons Learned: Nathan Sheets, Yasemin Sim Esmen, Rosalind Z. Wiggins

Journal of Financial Crises

Between 2007 and 2011, Nathan Sheets was director of the Division of International Finance at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. He oversaw the operations of the division and advised the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on economic and financial developments in foreign countries. Sheets also regularly represented the Federal Reserve Board at international meetings and in its contacts with foreign central banks. Under his helm, the division was involved in helping establish and manage the US dollar liquidity swap lines with foreign central banks. This Lessons Learned abstract is based on an interview with Sheets on …

Lessons Learned: Frederic Mishkin, Matthew A. Lieber

Journal of Financial Crises

Rick Mishkin served as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from 2006 to 2008 and as director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York from 1994 to 1997. A leading expert on monetary economics and financial markets and a professor at Columbia University’s School of Business since 1983, Mishkin has written 20 books, including the textbook The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets. This Lessons Learned is based on an interview with Mishkin conducted on October 20, 2020.

Lessons Learned: Susan Mclaughlin, Matthew A. Lieber

Journal of Financial Crises

A veteran staff member of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY), Susan McLaughlin served as head of the discount window and chief operating officer of the FRBNY’s Markets Trading Desk during the Global Financial Crisis. She was centrally involved in the Fed’s policy response to the disruptions to secured and unsecured funding markets during 2007–2008. Following the crisis, McLaughlin coordinated an effective Fed initiative to reform the triparty repurchase agreement (repo) market’s settlement infrastructure. The Fed’s reform efforts, engaging the financial industry under FRBNY president Bill Dudley, were instrumental in im-proving the stability of the funding market. This …

Lessons Learned: Simon Potter, Maryann Haggerty

Journal of Financial Crises

Simon Potter, an economist, worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for more than two decades. Leading up to the Global Financial Crisis, he was the New York Fed’s associate director of economic research; in 2010, he became director. In 2012, he shifted to become the head of the markets group, putting him at the helm of the Fed’s open markets operations, the mechanism by which the central bank steers monetary policy and interest rates. He moved to the private sector in 2019. For this April 2021 Lessons Learned interview, he emphasized that these are his personal opinions, …

Lessons Learned: Kieran J. Fallon, Matthew A. Lieber

Journal of Financial Crises

Presently the senior deputy general counsel for regulation and government affairs at PNC Fi-nancial Services Group, Kieran Fallon completed a 16-year tenure in the legal division of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in 2011. As associate general counsel dur-ing the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), he helped design the Federal Reserve’s Commercial Pa-per Funding Facility, restructure American International Group (AIG), and implement the Dodd-Frank Act. Relatedly, Fallon also served as general counsel for the Financial Stability Oversight Board from 2008 to 2011. This Lessons Learned is based on an interview conducted with Fallon on August 13, 2020.

Lessons Learned: Steven B. Kamin, Yasemin Sim Esmen

Journal of Financial Crises

Steven B. Kamin was the deputy director of the division of international finance at the Federal Reserve Board during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and was appointed director in 2011. He was responsible for research, policy analysis, and reporting in the areas of foreign economic activity, US external trade and capital flows, and developments in international financial markets and institutions. This Lessons Learned is based on an interview conducted with Kamin on August 16, 2019.

Lessons Learned: Seth Carpenter, Maryann Haggerty

Journal of Financial Crises

Seth Carpenter was a senior staff member of the Division of Monetary Affairs at the Federal Reserve Board during the 2007–09 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), meaning he was part of the team that advised the Board of Governors and members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in setting monetary policy. He led the Board team that worked daily with the Open Market Trading Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to implement policy. He left the Federal Reserve System as deputy director of monetary affairs in 2014 to work at the US Department of the Treasury, where …

Lessons Learned: Tim Clark, Lynnley Browning

Journal of Financial Crises

During the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–09, Tim Clark was senior adviser in the Division of Banking Supervision and Regulation at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Clark was a chief architect of the Federal Reserve’s capital and liquidity stress tests that helped to stabilize the banks. He was also one of the leaders behind the implementation of the Dodd-Frank Act and other reforms at the Federal Reserve, and ultimately served as deputy director of the Division for Supervision and Regulation. This abstract is based on an interview with Clark that occurred on December 13, 2019.

Lessons Learned: John Bovenzi, Sandra Ward

Journal of Financial Crises

As a deputy to the chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and in his role as chief operating officer of the agency, John Bovenzi provided policy advice and oversaw the agency’s operations, including business lines, bank supervision, bank closings, deposit insurance, and administrative affairs. Bovenzi’s most notable role during the Global Financial Crisis was manning the helm of mortgage lender IndyMac after the FDIC took it over in July 2008 to position it for a sale. This abstract is based on an interview with Bovenzi conducted on December 2, 2020

The Internal Capital Markets Of Global Dealer Banks, Arun Gupta

Journal of Financial Crises

This study uncovers the existence of a trillion-dollar internal capital market that played a central role in the financing of dealer banks during the 2007–09 Global Financial Crisis. Hand-collecting a novel set of dealer microdata at the subsidiary level, I present a unique set of facts on the evolution of inter-affiliate loans between US primary dealers and their (primarily foreign) siblings. First, the aggregate size of these dealer internal capital markets quadrupled from $335 billion in 2001 to $1.2 trillion by 2007. Second, 25 percent of total repurchase agreements and 62 percent of total securities lending reported on US primary …

From Lost Turnover To Nonperforming Loans: The Impact Of The Covid-19 Pandemic On The Economy And On The Financial System, Antonio Sánchez Serrano

Journal of Financial Crises

The COVID-19 pandemic created an unprecedented economic shock across the world. As a result of the coronavirus outbreak and the related health measures, nonfinancial corporations providing nonessential goods or services that cannot be consumed remotely have experienced a large decrease in their turnover. Using balance sheets and flows statements, we are able to quantify the impact of the pandemic on nonfinancial corporations and households, according to several scenarios for the pandemic over 2021. The impact is largely heterogeneous across sectors and amounts to up to 20% of the turnover for euro area nonfinancial corporations. Stress in these corporations and households …

Managing External Volatility: Policy Frameworks In Non-Reserve-Issuing Economies, Hélène Poirson, Nathan Porter, Ghada Fayad, Itai Agur, Ran Bi, Jiaqian Chen, Johannes Eugster, Stefan Laseen, Jeta Menkulasi, Kenji Moriyama, Céline Rochon, Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, Camilo Tovar, Zhongxia Zhang, Aleksandra Zdzienicka

Journal of Financial Crises

Since the Global Financial Crisis, non-reserve-issuing economies (NREs) have been highly sensitive to episodes of external pressures. With monetary policy independence constrained by this sensitivity, many NREs have utilized other policy instruments. This paper confirms the vulnerability of NREs to external shocks and finds that, in some circumstances, managing such shocks with multiple instruments can both lessen the policy response required from any one policy tool to financial and external shocks and increase the effectiveness of policies in stabilizing macrofinancial conditions. Effectiveness, however, does not always imply appropriateness, which rests on an evaluation of potential trade-offs and unintended consequences.

Financial Crises And Legislation, Peter Conti-Brown, Michael Ohlrogge

Journal of Financial Crises

Scholars frequently assert that financial legislation in the United States is primarily crisis driven. This “crisis-legislation hypothesis” is often cited as an explanation for various supposed shortcomings of US financial legislation, including that it is poorly conceived and inadequate to the problems it aims to address. Other scholars embrace the hypothesis, but from the perspective that crises are the needed impetus to prompt constructive reforms. Despite the prevalence of this hypothesis, however, its threshold assumption—that Congress passes major financial legislation only when financial crises arise—has never been analyzed empirically. This article provides that analysis. We first devise a new system …

Order Statistics From Independent Non-Identical Exponentiated And Proportional Hazard Rate Random Variables, José-Antonio Espín-Sánchez, Tianhao Wu

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We study order statistics (OS) from independent non identically distributed (INID) samples for two large classes of statistical distributions: Exponentiated Distributions (ED) and Proportional Hazard Rate Models (PHRM). We show that for the analytical solution for the CDF (PDF) of OSs in ED and PHRM: i) each OS's CDF (PDF) depends on all shape parameters; ii) the CDF (PDF) of each OS is a weighted average of CDF (PDF) within the same family and with shape parameters equal to a partial sum of the original shape parameters; and iii) the weights are integers and sum up to 1. These properties …

The Boosted Hp Filter Is More General Than You Might Think, Ziwei Mei, Peter C. B. Phillips, Zhentao Shi

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The global financial crisis and Covid recession have renewed discussion concerning trend-cycle discovery in macroeconomic data, and boosting has recently upgraded the popular HP filter to a modern machine learning device suited to data-rich and rapid computational environments. This paper sheds light on its versatility in trend-cycle determination, explaining in a simple manner both HP filter smoothing and the consistency delivered by boosting for general trend detection. Applied to a universe of time series in FRED databases, boosting outperforms other methods in timely capturing downturns at crises and recoveries that follow. With its wide applicability the boosted HP filter is …