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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Endogenous Business Cycles And Economic Policy, Peter Skott
Endogenous Business Cycles And Economic Policy, Peter Skott
Economics Department Working Paper Series
This paper examines the dynamics of Keynesian models that incorporate feedback effects from the labor market to income distribution, in- vestment, aggregate demand and output. A baseline version of the model can generate endogenous growth cycles, but cumulative divergence and economic collapse also become possible for plausible parameter values. Extensions of the model that include monetary and Öscal policy show greater robustness: the local instability of the stationary point leads to limit cycles (rather than complete collapse), even when large, destabilizing changes are made to parameters describing the private sector. The robustness of the general approach is reinforced by the …
Long-Run Effects Of Austerity, Guilherme Klein Martins
Long-Run Effects Of Austerity, Guilherme Klein Martins
Economics Department Working Paper Series
This paper provides evidence that austerity shocks have long-run negative effects on GDP. Besides addressing the important gap in the growing fiscal research regarding the short time horizon of the estimations, this paper analyzes two other important assumptions made in the literature regarding the (i) symmetry of episodes of fiscal expansion and con- traction and (ii) uniformity of fiscal multipliers for different sizes of shocks. We use narrative fiscal shocks and propensity score reweighting in a local projections setup to account for the potential endogeneity of austerity policies and the non-linearity of its effects over time. The estimation is also …
Coronavirus Fiscal Policy In The United States: Lessons From Feminist Political Economy, Katherine A. Moos
Coronavirus Fiscal Policy In The United States: Lessons From Feminist Political Economy, Katherine A. Moos
PERI Working Papers
Using the U.S. fiscal response to Covid-19 in March and April 2020 as a case study, this paper explores the implications that the U.S. coronavirus legislation had on the societal distribution of responsibility for social reproduction among U.S. households, employers, and the U.S. federal government —and its effect on women and racialized minorities. It builds on feminist political economy research that argues that, prior to the coronavirus pandemic, economic crisis and stagnating conditions for workers in the United States had increased the role of households and the U.S. government in social reproduction, relative to the contribution of employers. This paper …
Three Essays On Gender-Specific Employment Outcomes Of Macroeconomic Policies, Selin Secil Akin
Three Essays On Gender-Specific Employment Outcomes Of Macroeconomic Policies, Selin Secil Akin
Doctoral Dissertations
This three-essay dissertation examines the impact of fiscal and monetary policies on gender-disaggregated employment outcomes both theoretically and empirically. The first essay constructs a structuralist macroeconomic model that explores channels whereby fiscal and monetary policies impact women’s paid and unpaid work. The essay discusses two factors related to labor market segregation that can explain differential effects of macroeconomic policies on male and female employment: the labor intensity of female-dominated sectors, and different responses of capacity utilization to aggregate demand shocks in male and female-dominated sectors. In addition, a decline in output resulting from aggregate demand shocks may increase women’s unpaid …
Neoliberal Redistributive Policy: The U.S. Net Social Wage In The 21st Century, Katherine A. Moos
Neoliberal Redistributive Policy: The U.S. Net Social Wage In The 21st Century, Katherine A. Moos
PERI Working Papers
In this paper, I examine the trends of fiscal transfers between the state and workers during 1959 - 2012 to understand the net impact of redistributive policy in the United States. This paper presents original net social wage data from and analysis based on the replication and extension of Shaikh and Tonak (2002). The paper investigates the appearance of a post-2001 variation in the net social wage data. The positive net social wage in the 21st century is the result of a combination of factors including the growth of income support, healthcare inflation, neoliberal tax reforms, and macroeconomic instability. Growing …
Neoliberal Redistributive Policy: The U.S. Net Social Wage In The 21st Century, Katherine A. Moos
Neoliberal Redistributive Policy: The U.S. Net Social Wage In The 21st Century, Katherine A. Moos
Economics Department Working Paper Series
In this paper, I examine the trends of fiscal transfers between the state and workers during 1959 - 2012 to understand the net impact of redistributive policy in the United States. This paper presents original net social wage data from and analysis based on the replication and extension of Shaikh and Tonak (2002). The paper investigates the appearance of a post-2001 variation in the net social wage data. The positive net social wage in the 21st century is the result of a combination of factors including the growth of income support, healthcare inflation, neoliberal tax reforms, and macroeconomic instability. Growing …
Aggregate Demand, Functional Finance And Secular Stagnation, Peter Skott
Aggregate Demand, Functional Finance And Secular Stagnation, Peter Skott
Economics Department Working Paper Series
This paper makes three main points. Fiscal policy, first, may be needed in the long run to maintain full employment and avoid secular stagnation. If fiscal policy is used in this way, second, the long-run debt ratio depends (i) inversely on the rate of growth, (ii) inversely on government consumption, and (iii) directly on the degree of inequality. The analysis, third, suggests that policies and policy debates have been misguided. The recent rediscovery of ’secular stagnation’ by Summers and others should be welcomed, but the suggested theoretical redirection is unclear and does not go far enough.
Public Debt, Secular Stagnation, And Functional Finance, Peter Skott
Public Debt, Secular Stagnation, And Functional Finance, Peter Skott
Economics Department Working Paper Series
Fiscal policy and public debt may be required to maintain full employment and avoid secular stagnation. This conclusion emerges from a range of different models, including OLG specifications and stock-flow consistent (post-) Keynesian models. One of the determinants of the required long-run debt ratio is the rate of economic growth. Low growth leads to high debt, and empirical correlations between growth and debt may reflect this causal effect of growth on debt, rather than negative effects of debt on growth. A second result relates directly to austerity policies. The level of government consumption and the structure of taxation influence the …
Can Macroeconomic Policy Stimulate Private Investment In South Africa? New Insights From Aggregate And Manufacturing Sector-Level Evidence, Léonce Ndikumana
Can Macroeconomic Policy Stimulate Private Investment In South Africa? New Insights From Aggregate And Manufacturing Sector-Level Evidence, Léonce Ndikumana
Economics Department Working Paper Series
This study explores the determinants of investment using both aggregated industry-level data and disaggretated data on 27 sub-sectors of the manufacturing sector for the period 1970-2001. According to the results in this study, the government has potentially powerful means at its disposal to stimulate private investment. In particular, a domestic demand stimulus and public investment expansion will produce large gains in private investment. While the direct effects of lowering the interest rate appear to be quantitatively small, indirect effects operating notably through domestic demand and cheaper credit are likely to be large. The evidence in this study also indicates that …
Fiscal Policy, Conflict, And Reconstruction In Burundi And Rwanda, Léonce Ndikumana
Fiscal Policy, Conflict, And Reconstruction In Burundi And Rwanda, Léonce Ndikumana
Léonce Ndikumana
The ethnic conflicts in Burundi and Rwanda have severely weakened the economies and worsened the structural fiscal imbalances of these countries. Government revenue has declined due to the erosion of the tax base and tax administration capacity. At the same time, governments have shifted the allocation of resources from capital and social expenditures to military and security spending. This paper argues that there is a strong connection between a military-intensive fiscal policy stance and the lack of political legitimacy. A narrow-based regime tends to increase spending on security to increase its chances of survival. This strategy has dire social and …