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Articles 4021 - 4050 of 4380

Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

A Time-Series Econometric Model Of The Upstate New York Economy, Donald H. Dutkowsky, James Follain, Seth Giertz Mar 1999

A Time-Series Econometric Model Of The Upstate New York Economy, Donald H. Dutkowsky, James Follain, Seth Giertz

Center for Policy Research

The purpose of the research described in this report is to produce an econometric model of the Upstate New York economy and two metropolitan areas within it—Albany and Syracuse. The model is intended to satisfy three main criteria. First, the model should be capable of capturing the dynamic nature of the local economy. This simply reflects the widely held belief that the local economy’s response to various external forces and policies is unlikely to be immediate. Second, the model ought to be capable of generating short-run forecasts. In particular, quarterly forecasts for one or two years are preferred to long-run …

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The Effects Of Linking On Genres Of Web Documents, Kevin Crowston, Marie Williams Jan 1999

The Effects Of Linking On Genres Of Web Documents, Kevin Crowston, Marie Williams

School of Information Studies - Faculty Scholarship

Documents on the Web can be composed of multiple Web pages, suggesting the need to consider how linking between pages affects a document's form. We illustrate this point by considering patterns of linking in a common genre of document, the Frequently Asked Questions file or FAQ. In a sample of 70 FAQs, we found four patterns of linking: no links, links within the page, links to pages on the same host and links to other hosts. We suggest that links that tie together document pieces simply recreate the already accepted FAQ genre, but links that provide navigation within the document …

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Captions And Color Plates (V. 10-11, 1998-1999) Jan 1999

Captions And Color Plates (V. 10-11, 1998-1999)

BEADS: Journal of the Society of Bead Researchers

No abstract provided.

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What Academic Librarians Should Know About Creative Thinking, John Olson Jan 1999

What Academic Librarians Should Know About Creative Thinking, John Olson

Librarian Publications

Librarians need to explore their individual creativity. Creative thinking is an underutilized problem-solving skill that can be learned and applied to any situation. This article explains how librarians can understand, develop, and use their creative thinking abilities and skills in the workplace.

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Relative Cohort Size: Source Of A Unifying Theory Of Global Fertility Transition, Diane J. Macunovich Jan 1999

Relative Cohort Size: Source Of A Unifying Theory Of Global Fertility Transition, Diane J. Macunovich

Center for Policy Research

Using United Nations estimates of age structure and vital rates for nearly 200 nations at five-year intervals from 1950 through 1995, this paper demonstrates how changes in relative cohort size appear to have affected patterns of fertility across nations since 1950--not just in developed countries, but perhaps even more importantly in countries as they pass through the demographic transition. The increase in relative cohort size (defined as the proportion of the population aged 15 to 24 relative to that aged 25 to 59) which occurs as a result of declining mortality rates among children and young adults during the demographic …

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The Baby Boom As It Ages: How Has It Affected Patterns Of Consumptions And Savings In The United States?, Diane J. Macunovich Jan 1999

The Baby Boom As It Ages: How Has It Affected Patterns Of Consumptions And Savings In The United States?, Diane J. Macunovich

Center for Policy Research

Using detailed estimates of personal consumption expenditures at the state level for 1900, 1929, 1970, and 1982 developed by Stanley Lebergott, this paper demonstrates that the passage of the Baby Boom from childhood through the teen years and into family formation would have caused market swings in patterns of aggregate consumption and savings in the United States during the past 50 years. The effect of age structure on personal consumption expenditures is estimated using population by single year of age from 0 to 85, revealing the expected pattern of life cycle consumption and savings in the adult years. In addition, …

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Geography, Industrial Organization, And Agglomeration, Stuart S. Rosenthal, William C. Strange Jan 1999

Geography, Industrial Organization, And Agglomeration, Stuart S. Rosenthal, William C. Strange

Center for Policy Research

This paper makes two contributions to the empirical literature on agglomeration economies. First, the paper uses a unique and rich database in conjunction with mapping software to measure the geographic extent and nature of agglomerative externalities. Previous papers have been forced to assume that agglomeration economies are club goods that operate at a metropolitan scale. Second, the paper tests for the existence of organizational agglomeration economies of the kind studied qualitatively by Saxenian (1994). This is a potentially important source of increasing returns that previous empirical work has not considered. Results indicate that localization economies attenuate rapidly and that industrial …

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Social Protection For The Poor In The Developed World: The Evidence From Lis, Timothy Smeeding, Katherine Ross Jan 1999

Social Protection For The Poor In The Developed World: The Evidence From Lis, Timothy Smeeding, Katherine Ross

Center for Policy Research

This paper presents data and analysis on the antipoverty effectiveness of safety nets in eight rich nations using data from the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS). We find that national safety nets are quite varied and that the most expensive ones (in terms of budgetary cost) are also the most effective. The paper concludes with some suggestions for the construction of effective safety nets in developing nations.

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How To Encourage Students In A Bibliographic Instruction Session To Use Critical And Creative Thinking Skills: A Pilot Study, John Olson Jan 1999

How To Encourage Students In A Bibliographic Instruction Session To Use Critical And Creative Thinking Skills: A Pilot Study, John Olson

Librarian Publications

This article will describe a pilot study on how applications and methods are used to help students discover and apply critical and creative thinking skills taught during a fifty-minute bibliographic instruction class. Learning these skills will help students understand how to ask questions of themselves in assessing which information sources to use for class assignments in the future.

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Helping The Working Poor: Employer- Vs. Employee-Based Subsidies, Stacy Dickert-Conlin, Douglas Holtz-Eakin Jan 1999

Helping The Working Poor: Employer- Vs. Employee-Based Subsidies, Stacy Dickert-Conlin, Douglas Holtz-Eakin

Center for Policy Research

In the United States and Europe there has been renewed interest in subsidizing firms that employ disadvantaged workers as a means of addressing poverty and other social problems. In contrast, the prevailing practice is largely to provide social welfare benefits directly to individuals. Which approach is better? We re-examine the relative merits of employee- versus employer-based labor market subsidies and conclude there are good reasons to continue to rely on the direct, employee-based approach. In practice, low-wage workers are seldom either low-skill or low-income workers. Furthermore, workers who might quality for a firm-based subsidy are reluctant to so identify themselves …

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The Fortune Of One's Birth: Relative Cohort Size And The Youth Labor Market In The United States, Diane J. Macunovich Jan 1999

The Fortune Of One's Birth: Relative Cohort Size And The Youth Labor Market In The United States, Diane J. Macunovich

Center for Policy Research

Using two different measures of relative cohort size--one indicating the size and placement of an individual's own birth cohort, and the other the ratio of young to prime-age adults in the United States in that year--it has been possible to isolate strong effects of the population age structure on wages in the United States over the past 33 years. These effects have been strong enough that virtually all of the observed change in the experience premium, and a substantial proportion of the changes in the college wage premium, can be explained by the relative cohort size variables alone. Even changes …

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Cash Constraints And Business Start-Ups: Deutschmarks Versus Dollars, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Harvey Rosen Jan 1999

Cash Constraints And Business Start-Ups: Deutschmarks Versus Dollars, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Harvey Rosen

Center for Policy Research

In this paper we analyze microdata to explore differences in the rates at which American and German workers leave their salaried jobs to become self-employed. We document that the rate of self-employment is lower in Germany than in the U.S., and the rate of transition from wage-earning to self-employment is lower as well. We find evidence that German workers face liquidity constraints that are more severe than those of their American counterparts. Further, the difference in transition rates cannot be attributed to observable differences between German and American workers.

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The Role Of Relative Cohort Size And Relative Income In The Demographic Transition, Diane J. Macunovich Jan 1999

The Role Of Relative Cohort Size And Relative Income In The Demographic Transition, Diane J. Macunovich

Center for Policy Research

This paper summarizes the results of other analyses by the author with regard to the importance of relative cohort size (RCS) in determining male relative income (the income of young adults relative to prime-age workers) and general patterns of economic growth, and in turn influencing fertility in the currently more-developed nations. It then goes on to demonstrate that these same effects appear to have been operating in all of the 100-odd nations which have experienced the fertility transition since 1950. Parameter estimates based on the experience of all 189 countries identified by the United Nations between 1950 and 1995 are …

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Testing The Stability Of A Production Function With Urbanization As A Shift Factor: An Application Of Non-Stationary Panel Data Techniques, Suzanne Mccoskey, Chihwa Kao Jan 1999

Testing The Stability Of A Production Function With Urbanization As A Shift Factor: An Application Of Non-Stationary Panel Data Techniques, Suzanne Mccoskey, Chihwa Kao

Center for Policy Research

Urban economists have long sought to explain the relationship between urbanization levels and output. In this paper we revisit this question and test the long-run stability of a production function with urbanization using non-stationary panel data techniques. Our results show that a long-run relationship between urbanization output per worker and capital per worker cannot be rejected for either our sample of 30 developing countries or our sample of 22 developed countries. In addition, we estimate the long-run average effects on GDPW of urbanization and capital. These results offer newer insights and potential for dynamic urban models than the simple cross-section …

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Bringing Us Together / Getting Us Out, Peter D. Verheyen Nov 1998

Bringing Us Together / Getting Us Out, Peter D. Verheyen

Librarian Publications

The past five years have seen an explosion in the use of the Internet by book artists both as a tool for communication and as a means of publicizing their work. Not quite as rapidly, but steadily nevertheless some formerly traditional book artists have left the confines and limitations of hot type on damp paper to explore the creation of "books" which can only exist in digital form. In this presentation, I will explore how both book artists and the book arts represent themselves using digital media and what I see as some of the implications for the ways in …

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Traditionality, Modernity, And Household Composition: Parent-Child Coresidence In Contemporary Turkey, Hakan Aykan, Douglas A. Wolf Nov 1998

Traditionality, Modernity, And Household Composition: Parent-Child Coresidence In Contemporary Turkey, Hakan Aykan, Douglas A. Wolf

Center for Policy Research

We investigate the patterns and correlates of currently married adult children’s coresidence with their parents in Turkey, using data from the 1993 Turkish Demographic and Health Survey. We are particularly interested in “traditional” patterns of coresidence—that is, coresidence with one or both of the husband’s parents—and the effects of variables measuring traditionality at the individual and contextual levels on coresidence with any parent, and with the husband’s parents. The results indicate that coresidence among currently married children is not the norm. However, the odds of coresidence with the husband’s parents, given that a couple coresides with any parent, are very …

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Residential Choices And Prospective Risks Of Nursing Home Entry, Kenneth A. Couch, Duke Kao Nov 1998

Residential Choices And Prospective Risks Of Nursing Home Entry, Kenneth A. Couch, Duke Kao

Center for Policy Research

Nationally representative estimates of the prospective risk of entry into a nursing home and the likelihood of residing in a nursing home are obtained using data from the Longitudinal Study of Aging: 1984-1990. The roles of demographic characteristics, kin availability, and health status in determining entry into and residence in nursing homes is examined. Caregivers facilitate community residence and reduce the risk of nursing home entry for those with functional limitations. Dementia in combination with functional limitations increases the risk of nursing home entry.

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Intergenerational Co-Residence And Children's Incomes, Thomas A. Dunn, John W. Phillips Oct 1998

Intergenerational Co-Residence And Children's Incomes, Thomas A. Dunn, John W. Phillips

Center for Policy Research

This paper examines co-residence arrangements between older parents and their adult children. We sketch a model of the co-residence choice that accounts for the preferences of the parent and the child and incorporates parental altruism and demands for housing, goods, and privacy. The model predicts that poorer, unmarried or childless siblings are more likely than their siblings to co-reside. The empirical analysis exploits the information provided by respondents in the Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) survey about all of their children living in and outside their household. Indeed, we find that poorer siblings are more likely …

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Estate Taxes, Life Insurance, And Small Business, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, John W. Phillips, Harvey S. Rosen Oct 1998

Estate Taxes, Life Insurance, And Small Business, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, John W. Phillips, Harvey S. Rosen

Center for Policy Research

One criticism of the estate tax is that it prevents the owners of family businesses from passing their enterprises onto their children. The problem is that it may be difficult to pay estate taxes without liquidating the business. A natural question is why individuals with such concerns do not purchase enough life insurance to meet their estate tax liabilities. This paper examines whether and how people use life insurance to deal with the estate tax. We find that, other things being the same, business owners purchase more life insurance than other individuals. However, on the margin, their insurance purchases are …

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When Random Group Effects Are Cross-Correlated: An Application To Elderly Migration Flow Models, Karen S. Conway, Andrew J. Houtenville Oct 1998

When Random Group Effects Are Cross-Correlated: An Application To Elderly Migration Flow Models, Karen S. Conway, Andrew J. Houtenville

Center for Policy Research

Incorporating random group effects has proven important to making correct statistical inferences about factors that only vary across groups. We note that it is possible to have more than one random effect in models using cross-sectional data and that these random effects could be correlated, unlike in the typical panel data situation. Extending the standard multiple random effects model in this way is greatly simplified by using the two-step estimator we develop. Our application to an elderly migration flow model provides an intuitive example of cross-correlated random group effects and demonstrates the ease of our estimator, as well as highlighting …

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Benchmarking Local Government Services In Onondaga County: A Demonstration Study Of The 19 Towns And City Of Syracuse. Executive Summary, Syracuse University. Maxwell School. Community Benchmarks Program Sep 1998

Benchmarking Local Government Services In Onondaga County: A Demonstration Study Of The 19 Towns And City Of Syracuse. Executive Summary, Syracuse University. Maxwell School. Community Benchmarks Program

Community Benchmarks Program

This is the first in a series of reports that will provide data on several government services provided by 20 municipalities in Onondaga County: 19 towns and the city of Syracuse. This publication is part of the ongoing research activities of the Community Benchmarks Program (CBP) and is intended as a demonstration project. The purpose of this study is to illustrate the usefulness of benchmarks as a means of improving government performance. This report begins with the display of basic demographic information, and is followed by individual demonstration studies in the areas of responsiveness to CBP requests for information and …

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Benchmarking Local Government Services In Onondaga County: A Demonstration Study Of The 19 Towns And City Of Syracuse, Syracuse University. Maxwell School. Community Benchmarks Program Sep 1998

Benchmarking Local Government Services In Onondaga County: A Demonstration Study Of The 19 Towns And City Of Syracuse, Syracuse University. Maxwell School. Community Benchmarks Program

Community Benchmarks Program

This is the first in a series of reports that will provide data on several government services provided by 20 municipalities in Onondaga County: 19 towns and the city of Syracuse. This publication is part of the ongoing research activities of the Community Benchmarks Program (CBP) and is intended as a demonstration project. The purpose of this study is to illustrate the usefulness of benchmarks as a means of improving government performance. This report begins with the display of basic demographic information, and is followed by individual demonstration studies in the areas of responsiveness to CBP requests for information and …

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Elderly Migration And State Fiscal Policy: Evidence From The 1990 Census Migration Flows+, Karen S. Conway, Andrew J. Houtenville Aug 1998

Elderly Migration And State Fiscal Policy: Evidence From The 1990 Census Migration Flows+, Karen S. Conway, Andrew J. Houtenville

Center for Policy Research

The elderly’s unique economic situation makes some government expenditures more attractive and some forms of taxation less burdensome than others. This research investigates whether elderly migration is affected by state fiscal policies and discusses the possible consequences, both of which likely differ between younger and older elderly. Using state-to-state migration flows, we identify which states are gaining and losing younger versus older elderly people. We then estimate the migration flows as a function of the states’ amenities, cost of living, composition of government spending and alternative specifications of the tax system. We find that elderly migration is influenced by state …

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Security Analysts' Career Concerns And Herding Of Earnings Forecasts, Jeffrey D. Kubik, Amit Solomon, Harrison G. Hong Jul 1998

Security Analysts' Career Concerns And Herding Of Earnings Forecasts, Jeffrey D. Kubik, Amit Solomon, Harrison G. Hong

Economics - All Scholarship

Several theories of reputation and herding (see, e.g., Scharfstein and Stein (1990)) suggest that herding among agents should vary with career concerns. Our goal in this paper is to document whether such a link exists in the labor market for security analysts. Specifically, we look at the relationship between an analyst's job tenure (a proxy for career concerns) and various measures of stock earnings forecast performance. We establish the following key results. (1) Older analysts are more likely to produce earnings forecasts of firms before younger ones. (2) Their forecasts also deviate more from the consensus forecast than their younger …

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Horatio Alger Meets The Mobility Tables, Douglas Holt-Eakin, Harvey S. Rosen, Robert Weathers Jul 1998

Horatio Alger Meets The Mobility Tables, Douglas Holt-Eakin, Harvey S. Rosen, Robert Weathers

Center for Policy Research

The question of how entrepreneurship relates to income mobility is cogent given the current public debate about the sources of income inequality and mobility in United States society. We examine how experience with entrepreneurship has affected an individual’s place in the earnings distribution. Our basic tack is to follow individuals’ positions in the income distribution over time, and to see how their mobility (or lack thereof) was affected by involvement with entrepreneurship. Our main finding is that for low-income individuals there is some merit to the notion that the self-employed moved ahead in the earnings distribution relative to those who …

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Income Taxes And Entrepreneurs' Use Of Labor, Robert Carroll, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Mark Rider, Harvey Rosen Jul 1998

Income Taxes And Entrepreneurs' Use Of Labor, Robert Carroll, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Mark Rider, Harvey Rosen

Center for Policy Research

This paper investigates the effect of entrepreneurs’ personal income tax situations on their use of labor. We analyze the income tax returns of a large number of sole proprietors before and after the Tax Reform Act of 1986 and determine how the substantial reductions in marginal tax rates associated with that law affected their decisions to hire labor and the size of their wage bills. We find that individual income taxes exert a statistically and quantitatively significant influence on the probability that an entrepreneur hires workers. Raising the entrepreneur’s “tax price” (one minus the marginal tax rate) by 10 percent …

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Where Does The Money Come From? The Financing Of Small Entrepreneurial Enterprises, Zsuzsanna Fluck, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Harvey Rosen Jul 1998

Where Does The Money Come From? The Financing Of Small Entrepreneurial Enterprises, Zsuzsanna Fluck, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Harvey Rosen

Center for Policy Research

Using data from the Wisconsin Entrepreneurial Climate Study, we study the sources of firms’ finance during the very early stages of their lives. Our focus is the evolution of the mix of financial capital from “insiders” and “outsiders” as firms age. We find that at the beginning of firms’ life cycles, the proportion of funds from internal sources increases with age, while the proportion from banks, venture capitalists, and private investors declines. There is also evidence that these patterns eventually reverse themselves, with the proportion of insider finance ultimately declining and the proportion of outsider finance increasing with age. We …

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Financial Capital, Human Capital, And The Transition To Self-Employment: Evidence From Intergenerational Links, Thomas Dunn, Douglas Holtz-Eakin Jul 1998

Financial Capital, Human Capital, And The Transition To Self-Employment: Evidence From Intergenerational Links, Thomas Dunn, Douglas Holtz-Eakin

Center for Policy Research

The environment for business creation is central to economic policy, as entrepreneurs are believed to be forces of innovation, employment and economic dynamism. We use data from the National Longitudinal Surveys (NLS) to investigate the relative importance of family financial and human capital in the transition into self-employment. Specifically, we estimate the impacts of own wealth and human capital and parental wealth and self-employment experience on the probability that an individual makes the transition from a wage and salary job to self-employment. We find that young men’s own financial assets exert a statistically significant, but quantitatively modest effect on the …

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Apocalypse Now? Fundamental Tax Reform And Residential Housing Values, Donald Bruce, Douglas Holtz-Eakin Jul 1998

Apocalypse Now? Fundamental Tax Reform And Residential Housing Values, Donald Bruce, Douglas Holtz-Eakin

Center for Policy Research

Using a simulation model crafted to integrate the short-run and long-term impacts of tax reform on the housing market, we find modest impacts from fundamental reform of the Federal income tax. These results suggest that concerns over the impact of tax reform on housing values and household net worth are overstated. To the extent that reform is otherwise desirable, fears of drastic effects on the housing market should not stand as an impediment to reform. Donald

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Entrepreneurs, Income Taxes, And Investment, Robert Carroll, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Mark Rider, Harvey Rosen Jul 1998

Entrepreneurs, Income Taxes, And Investment, Robert Carroll, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Mark Rider, Harvey Rosen

Center for Policy Research

This paper investigates the effect of entrepreneurs’ personal income tax situations on their capital investment decisions. We examine the income tax returns of a sample of sole proprietors before and after the Tax Reform Act of 1986 and determine how the substantial reductions in marginal tax rates for the relatively affluent associated with that law affected their decisions to invest in physical capital. We find that individual income taxes exert a statistically and quantitatively significant influence on investment decisions. In our sample, a 5 percentage point increase in marginal tax rates would reduce the proportion of entrepreneurs who make new …

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