Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Are Bond Returns Predictable With Real-Time Macro Data?, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Kunpeng Li, Guoshi Tong, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We investigate the predictability of bond returns using real-time macro variables and consider the possibility of a nonlinear predictive relationship and the presence of weak factors. To address these issues, we propose a scaled sufficient forecasting (sSUFF) method and analyze its asymptotic properties. Using both the existing and the new method, we find empirically that real-time macro variables have significant forecasting power both in-sample and out-of-sample. Moreover, they generate sizable economic values, and their predictability is not spanned by the yield curve. We also observe that the forecasted bond returns are countercyclical, and the magnitude of predictability is stronger during …

Learning-Based Stock Trending Prediction By Incorporating Technical Indicators And Social Media Sentiment, Zhaoxia Wang, Zhenda Hu, Fang Li, Seng-Beng Ho, Erik Cambria

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Stock trending prediction is a challenging task due to its dynamic and nonlinear characteristics. With the development of social platform and artificial intelligence (AI), incorporating timely news and social media information into stock trending models becomes possible. However, most of the existing works focus on classification or regression problems when predicting stock market trending without fully considering the effects of different influence factors in different phases. To address this gap, this research solves stock trending prediction problem utilizing both technical indicators and sentiments of the social media text as influence factors in different situations. A 3-phase hybrid model is proposed …

Automatic Scoring Of Speeded Interpersonal Assessment Center Exercises Via Machine Learning: Initial Psychometric Evidence And Practical Guidelines, Louis Hickman, Christoph N. Herde, Filip Lievens, Louis Tay

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Assessment center (AC) exercises such as role-plays have established themselves as valuable approaches for obtaining insights into interpersonal behavior, but they are often considered the “Rolls Royce” of personnel assessment due to their high costs. The observation and rating process comprises a substantial part of these costs. In an exploratory case study, we capitalize on recent advances in natural language processing (NLP) by developing NLP-based machine learning (ML) models to investigate the possibility of automatically scoring AC exercises. First, we compared the convergent-related validity and contamination with word count of ML scores based on models that used different NLP methods …

Digital Tools - Supporting Systematic Reviews & Evidence Synthesis. Where Are We Now And What Might The Future Look Like?, Aaron Tay

Research Collection Library

Invited talk for ALIA HLA Lunchtime Seminar Aug 2022. In this invited talk, I survey the new emerging discovery tools mostly powered by open scholarly data, from new mega discovery indexes like Lens.org, Semantic Scholar to what I call literature review mapping tools (eg ResearchRabbit, Connected Papers, Litmaps) as well as “AI” power tools like Elicit.org and Scite.ai that use machine learning to enhance discovery in various ways. I suggest keys to understand and assessing such tools. Given the target audience of health science librarians, I briefly survey current use of such tools in evidence synthesis as well as the …

Investigating Toxicity Changes Of Cross-Community Redditors From 2 Billion Posts And Comments, Hind Almerekhi, Haewoon Kwak, Bernard J. Jansen

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

This research investigates changes in online behavior of users who publish in multiple communities on Reddit by measuring their toxicity at two levels. With the aid of crowdsourcing, we built a labeled dataset of 10,083 Reddit comments, then used the dataset to train and fine-tune a Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) neural network model. The model predicted the toxicity levels of 87,376,912 posts from 577,835 users and 2,205,581,786 comments from 890,913 users on Reddit over 16 years, from 2005 to 2020. This study utilized the toxicity levels of user content to identify toxicity changes by the user within the …

Did Twitter Deliberately Mislead Elon Musk In His Acquisition Bid?, Mark Humphery-Jenner

Perspectives@SMU

Elon Musk has officially ended his bid to acquire Twitter on the grounds that it misled the market in its disclosures, writes UNSW Business School's Mark Humphery-Jenner

Imagining New Futures Beyond Predictive Systems In Child Welfare: A Qualitative Study With Impacted Stakeholders, Logan Stapleton, Min Hun Lee, Diana Qing, Marya Wright, Alexandra Chouldechova, Ken Holstein, Zhiwei Steven Wu, Haiyi Zhu

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Child welfare agencies across the United States are turning to datadriven predictive technologies (commonly called predictive analytics) which use government administrative data to assist workers’ decision-making. While some prior work has explored impacted stakeholders’ concerns with current uses of data-driven predictive risk models (PRMs), less work has asked stakeholders whether such tools ought to be used in the first place. In this work, we conducted a set of seven design workshops with 35 stakeholders who have been impacted by the child welfare system or who work in it to understand their beliefs and concerns around PRMs, and to engage them …

Open Access Enables New Tools And Features, Aaron Tay

Research Collection Library

Open Access levels are now at a tipping point. According to Digital Science’s Dimensions for the year 2020, Open Access surpassed subscription publication globally for the first time (Hook, 2021). Similarly in Dec 2020, with Elsevier agreeing to deposit open references to Crossref (the last major publisher to do), over 90% of Crossref references are now open (Hutchin, 2021). The combination of these two trends, both Open Access to full text and Open Scholarly metadata as well as Machine learning techniques has led to a rise of new tools in areas such as literature mapping , new indexes and new …

Twitter Demonstrates Why Poison Pills Are Bad For Shareholders, Mark Humphery-Jenner

Perspectives@SMU

Twitter’s poison pill appears to be an attempt to entrench the board rather than delivering shareholder value, writes UNSW Business School's Mark Humphery-Jenner

Conditional Superior Predictive Ability, Jia Li, Zhipeng Liao, Rogier Quaedvlieg

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article proposes a test for the conditional superior predictive ability (CSPA) of a family of forecasting methods with respect to a benchmark. The test is functional in nature: under the null hypothesis, the benchmark’s conditional expected loss is no more than those of the competitors, uniformly across all conditioning states. By inverting the CSPA tests for a set of benchmarks, we obtain confidence sets for the uniformly most superior method. The econometric inference pertains to testing conditional moment inequalities for time series data with general serial dependence, and we justify its asymptotic validity using a uniform non-parametric inference method …

Game Changing Factors Impacting The Scholarly Records, Aaron Tay

Research Collection Library

Invited talk for 18th Annual Library Leadership Institute - Hong Kong | 17 - 20 January 2022.

In this 2022 talk Aaron Tay, reflects and expands on the talk he gave at the OCLC APRC in 2018 where he proposes 3 main trends that will impact the long term future of academic libraries.

1. Increasing diversity of the Scholarly Record

2. Push towards "Open"

3. Increasing effectiveness of technology - e.g.. Machine learning.

All three trends work indepdendently as well as reinforce each other. In this updated talk he give examples of some of these trends from the use of …

Learning Before Testing: A Selective Nonparametric Test For Conditional Moment Restrictions, Jia Li, Zhipeng Liao, Wenyu Zhou

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops a new test for conditional moment restrictions via nonparametric series regression, with approximating series terms selected by Lasso. Machine-learning the main features of the unknown conditional expectation function beforehand enables the test to seek power in a targeted fashion. The data-driven selection, however, also tends to distort the test’s size nontrivially, because it restricts the (growing-dimensional) score vector in the series regression on a random polytope, and hence, effectively alters the score’s asymptotic normality. A novel critical value is proposed to account for this truncation effect. We establish the size and local power properties of the proposed …

Using Data Analytics To Predict Students Score, Nang Laik Ma, Gim Hong Chua

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Education is very important to Singapore, and the government has continued to invest heavily in our education system to become one of the world-class systems today. A strong foundation of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) was what underpinned Singapore's development over the past 50 years. PISA is a triennial international survey that evaluates education systems worldwide by testing the skills and knowledge of 15-year-old students who are nearing the end of compulsory education. In this paper, the authors used the PISA data from 2012 and 2015 and developed machine learning techniques to predictive the students' scores and understand the …

Forecast Combinations In Machine Learning, Yue Qiu, Tian Xie, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper introduces novel methods to combine forecasts made by machine learning techniques. Machine learning methods have found many successful applications in predicting the response variable. However, they ignore model uncertainty when the relationship between the response variable and the predictors is nonlinear. To further improve the forecasting performance, we propose a general framework to combine multiple forecasts from machine learning techniques. Simulation studies show that the proposed machine-learning-based forecast combinations work well. In empirical applications to forecast key macroeconomic and financial variables, we find that the proposed methods can produce more accurate forecasts than individual machine learning techniques and …

Three Essays On Financial Economics, Jiangyuan Li

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Disagreement measures are known to predict cross-sectional stock returns but fail to predict market returns. This paper proposes a partial least squares disagreement index by aggregating information across individual disagreement measures and shows that this index significantly predicts market returns both in- and out-ofsample. Consistent with the theory in Atmaz and Basak (2018), the disagreement index asymmetrically predicts market returns with greater power in high sentiment periods, is positively associated with investor expectations of market returns, predicts market returns through a cash flow channel, and can explain the positive volume-volatility relationship.

Ai Gets Real At Singapore's Changi Airport (Part 1), Steve Lee, Steven M. Miller

Asian Management Insights

Ranked as the best airport for seven consecutive years, Singapore’s Changi Airport is lauded the world over for the efficient, safe, pleasurable and seamless service it offers the millions of passengers that pass through its facilities annually. Much of Changi Airport’s success can be attributed to the organisation’s customer-oriented business focus and deeply embedded culture of service excellence, combined with a host of advanced technologies operating invisibly in the background. The framework for this technology enablement is Changi Airport Group’s (CAG’s) SMART Airport Vision—an enterprise-wide approach to connective technologies that leverages sensors, data fusion, data analytics, and artificial intelligence (AI), …

Distilling Managerial Insights And Lessons From Ai Projects At Singapore's Changi Airport (Part 2), Steve Lee, Steven M. Miller

Asian Management Insights

Since 2017, Changi Airport group (CAG) has initiated a host of pilot projects that use connective and intelligent technologies to enable its move towards digital transformation and SMART Airport Vision. This has resulted in a first wave of deployment of AI and Machine Learning-enabled applications across various functions that can better sense, analyse, predict, and interact with people.

Identifying Elderlies At Risk Of Becoming More Depressed With Internet-Of-Things, Jiajue Ou, Huiguang Liang, Hwee Xian Tan

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Depression in the elderly is common and dangerous. Current methods to monitor elderly depression, however, are costly, time-consuming and inefficient. In this paper, we present a novel depression-monitoring system that infers an elderly’s changes in depression level based on his/her activity patterns, extracted from wireless sensor data. To do so, we build predictive models to learn the relationship between depression level changes and behaviors using historical data. We also deploy the system for a group of elderly, in their homes, and run the experiments for more than one year. Our experimental study gives encouraging results, suggesting that our IoT system …

Anatomy Of Online Hate: Developing A Taxonomy And Machine Learning Models For Identifying And Classifying Hate In Online News Media, Joni Salminen, Hind Almerekhi, Milica Milenkovic, Soon-Gyu Jung, Haewoon Kwak, Haewoon Kwak, Bernard J. Jansen

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Online social media platforms generally attempt to mitigate hateful expressions, as these comments can be detrimental to the health of the community. However, automatically identifying hateful comments can be challenging. We manually label 5,143 hateful expressions posted to YouTube and Facebook videos among a dataset of 137,098 comments from an online news media. We then create a granular taxonomy of different types and targets of online hate and train machine learning models to automatically detect and classify the hateful comments in the full dataset. Our contribution is twofold: 1) creating a granular taxonomy for hateful online comments that includes both …

An Integrated Framework For Modeling And Predicting Spatiotemporal Phenomena In Urban Environments, Tuc Viet Le

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This thesis proposes a general solution framework that integrates methods in machine learning in creative ways to solve a diverse set of problems arising in urban environments. It particularly focuses on modeling spatiotemporal data for the purpose of predicting urban phenomena. Concretely, the framework is applied to solve three specific real-world problems: human mobility prediction, trac speed prediction and incident prediction. For human mobility prediction, I use visitor trajectories collected a large theme park in Singapore as a simplified microcosm of an urban area. A trajectory is an ordered sequence of attraction visits and corresponding timestamps produced by a visitor. …

Inferring Spread Of Readers’ Emotion Affected By Online News, Agus Sulistya, Ferdian Thung, David Lo

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Depending on the reader, A news article may be viewed from many different perspectives, thus triggering different (and possibly contradicting) emotions. In this paper, we formulate a problem of predicting readers’ emotion distribution affected by a news article. Our approach analyzes affective annotations provided by readers of news articles taken from a non-English online news site. We create a new corpus from the annotated articles, and build a domain-specific emotion lexicon and word embedding features. We finally construct a multi-target regression model from a set of features extracted from online news articles. Our experiments show that by combining lexicon and …

Spiteful, One-Off, And Kind: Predicting Customer Feedback Behavior On Twitter, Agus Sulistya, Abhishek Sharma, David Lo

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Social media provides a convenient way for customers to express their feedback to companies. Identifying different types of customers based on their feedback behavior can help companies to maintain their customers. In this paper, we use a machine learning approach to predict a customer’s feedback behavior based on her first feedback tweet. First, we identify a few categories of customers based on their feedback frequency and the sentiment of the feedback. We identify three main categories: spiteful, one-off, and kind. Next, we build a model to predict the category of a customer given her first feedback. We use profile and …

Textual Analysis And Machine Leaning: Crack Unstructured Data In Finance And Accounting, Li Guo, Feng Shi, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In finance and accounting, relative to quantitative methods traditionally used, textual analysis becomes popular recently despite of its substantially less precise manner. In an overview of the literature, we describe various methods used in textual analysis, especially machine learning. By comparing their classification performance, we find that neural network outperforms many other machine learning techniques in classifying news category. Moreover, we highlight that there are many challenges left for future development of textual analysis, such as identifying multiple objects within one single document.

A Comparison Of Fundamental Network Formation Principles Between Offline And Online Friends On Twitter, Felicia Natali, Feida Zhu

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

We investigate the differences between how some of the fundamental principles of network formation apply among offline friends and how they apply among online friends on Twitter. We consider three fundamental principles of network formation proposed by Schaefer et al.: reciprocity, popularity, and triadic closure. Overall, we discover that these principles mainly apply to offline friends on Twitter. Based on how these principles apply to offline versus online friends, we formulate rules to predict offline friendship on Twitter. We compare our algorithm with popular machine learning algorithms and Xiewei’s random walk algorithm. Our algorithm beats the machine learning algorithms on …

Use Of A High-Value Social Audience Index For Target Audience Identification On Twitter, Siaw Ling Lo, David Cornforth, Raymond. Chiong

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

With the large and growing user base of social media, it is not an easy feat to identify potential customers for business. This is mainly due to the challenge of extracting commercially viable contents from the vast amount of free-form conversations. In this paper, we analyse the Twitter content of an account owner and its list of followers through various text mining methods and segment the list of followers via an index. We have termed this index as the High-Value Social Audience (HVSA) index. This HVSA index enables a company or organisation to devise their marketing and engagement plan according …

Identifying The High-Value Social Audience From Twitter Through Text-Mining Methods, Siaw Ling Lo, David Cornforth, Raymond Chiong

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Doing business on social media has become a common practice for many companies these days. While the contents shared on Twitter and Facebook offer plenty of opportunities to uncover business insights, it remains a challenge to sift through the huge amount of social media data and identify the potential social audience who is highly likely to be interested in a particular company. In this paper, we analyze the Twitter content of an account owner and its list of followers through various text mining methods, which include fuzzy keyword matching, statistical topic modeling and machine learning approaches. We use tweets of …

On Predicting User Affiliations Using Social Features In Online Social Networks, Minh Thap Nguyen

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

User profiling such as user affiliation prediction in online social network is a challenging task, with many important applications in targeted marketing and personalized recommendation. The research task here is to predict some user affiliation attributes that suggest user participation in different social groups.

What You Want Is Not What You Get: Predicting Sharing Policies For Text-Based Content On Facebook, Arunesh Sinha, Li Yan, Lujo Bauer

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

As the amount of content users publish on social networking sites rises, so do the danger and costs of inadvertently sharing content with an unintended audience. Studies repeatedly show that users frequently misconfigure their policies or misunderstand the privacy features offered by social networks. A way to mitigate these problems is to develop automated tools to assist users in correctly setting their policy. This paper explores the viability of one such approach: we examine the extent to which machine learning can be used to deduce users' sharing preferences for content posted on Facebook. To generate data on which to evaluate …