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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Exchange-Rate Systems And Interest-Rate Behaviour: The Experience Of Hong Kong And Singapore, Yiu Kuen Tse, Paul S. L. Yip
Exchange-Rate Systems And Interest-Rate Behaviour: The Experience Of Hong Kong And Singapore, Yiu Kuen Tse, Paul S. L. Yip
Research Collection School Of Economics
The Currency Board System in Hong Kong and the monitoring band system in Singapore are important benchmarks for two different exchange-rate systems. In this paper we consider the implications of the two exchange-rate systems on the interest-rate behaviour of the two economies. We examine the domestic–US interest differentials under the two exchange-rate regimes during the Asian Financial Crisis as well as the pre-and post-crisis periods. Using a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model, we also investigate whether there is any change in the correlation between the domestic and US interest rates due to the Asian Financial Crisis.
A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model With Time-Varying Correlations, Yiu Kuen Tse, Albert K.C. Tsui
A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model With Time-Varying Correlations, Yiu Kuen Tse, Albert K.C. Tsui
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this article we propose a new multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model with time-varying correlations. We adopt the vech representation based on the conditional variances and the conditional correlations. Whereas each conditional-variance term is assumed to follow a univariate GARCH formulation, the conditional-correlation matrix is postulated to follow an autoregressive moving average type of analog. Our new model retains the intuition and interpretation of the univariate GARCH model and yet satisfies the positive-definite condition as found in the constant-correlation and Baba-Engle-Kraft-Kroner models We report some Monte Carlo results on the finite-sample distributions of the maximum likelihood estimate of …