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Exploring Psychological Mechanisms Underlying Plea Bargain Decisions, Melanie Close

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

According to an economic model of plea bargaining, defendants’ plea decisions are based on their estimated trial prospects (i.e. likelihood of conviction and severity of sentence). However, information communicated during interrogations may provide defendants with misinformation about trial prospects, thus biasing their subsequent plea decisions. Furthermore, the model fails to address why innocent individuals plead guilty less often than guilty individuals even when trial prospects are identical. I investigated whether Reid-style interrogation techniques increase the likelihood of a guilty plea by inflating suspects’ estimates of the severity of the outcomes should they go to trial. I also examined whether anxiety …