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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Understanding And Improving The System: The Effects Of Weighting On The Accuracy Of Political Polling In Arkansas, Beck Williams
Understanding And Improving The System: The Effects Of Weighting On The Accuracy Of Political Polling In Arkansas, Beck Williams
Political Science Undergraduate Honors Theses
In an effort to increase the accuracy of statewide political polling in Arkansas, we explore the statistical strategy of weighting with a focus on one yearly opinion poll: The Arkansas Poll. We conduct over 70 weighting experiments on the 2016 and 2020 Arkansas Polls using a variety of variables and opinion questions. From these experiments, we find that while some weighted variables tend to create larger changes, weighting typically results in a single-digit percentage change that does not substantially shift or “flip” the majorities. Due to a greater rate of change through weighting in the 2020 Poll compared to the …
Abandoned By Home And Burden Of Host: Evaluating States' Economic Ability And Refugee Acceptance Through Panel Data Analysis, Ummey Hanney Tabassum
Abandoned By Home And Burden Of Host: Evaluating States' Economic Ability And Refugee Acceptance Through Panel Data Analysis, Ummey Hanney Tabassum
Browse all Theses and Dissertations
This research examines the relationship between the number of refugees hosted by states and the economic ability of host states by using UNHCR’s refugee data and World Bank’s GNI per capita data. To identify the relationship between these two variables, this study uses two sets of panel data covering 145-178 countries, around 43-55 years and 3000-5000 observations. For the two sets of panel data, four models are produced to test the null and alternative hypotheses. In all four cases, results show that there is a statistically significant negative correlation between the number of refugees hosted by states and GNI per …
The Effect Of Unemployment On Democratic Warfare, Andres Rakower
The Effect Of Unemployment On Democratic Warfare, Andres Rakower
Honors Undergraduate Theses
This study was done to see the effects of a war on the economy and the internal politics of the United States. In selecting the engagement, we would study we agreed the Iraq War would be aided by a large amount of sampling of public opinion that was more nuanced than in previous wars. The Iraq War was a very complicated war, as it was controversial from the beginning and became a political issue while continuing to be a war fought by Americans abroad. Based on the literature, there were many starting effects and assumptions that were accounted for such …
When Words Are Worse Than Bullets: A Study Of Corruption As An Unintended Consequence Of Threats Of Sanctions, Aleksei Balanov
When Words Are Worse Than Bullets: A Study Of Corruption As An Unintended Consequence Of Threats Of Sanctions, Aleksei Balanov
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This research contributes to the debates on the efficacy of economic sanctions as a tool of international diplomacy. It focuses on corruption, one of the potential unintended consequences of sanctions. Using multiple regression on a custom cross-sectional time series dataset of more than a thousand observations, this research finds the correlation between threats of sanctions and level of corruption statistically significant. The model suggests each new round of threats translates into a 1.25% increase in corruption for relatively clean states and a 5% increase for already corrupt states. The resulting policy implications are examined in this thesis.