Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Social Media Giving Statistics

Journal of Nonprofit Innovation

Nonprofits claim: Facebook as the most important social media for their causes, Twitter in a close second place, YouTube in third place.

Understanding And Improving The System: The Effects Of Weighting On The Accuracy Of Political Polling In Arkansas, Beck Williams

Political Science Undergraduate Honors Theses

In an effort to increase the accuracy of statewide political polling in Arkansas, we explore the statistical strategy of weighting with a focus on one yearly opinion poll: The Arkansas Poll. We conduct over 70 weighting experiments on the 2016 and 2020 Arkansas Polls using a variety of variables and opinion questions. From these experiments, we find that while some weighted variables tend to create larger changes, weighting typically results in a single-digit percentage change that does not substantially shift or “flip” the majorities. Due to a greater rate of change through weighting in the 2020 Poll compared to the …

For Life Or Choice: Abortion Views In America, Alyssa C. Ritchie

Student Publications

Abortion is one of the most controversial political topics in the United States of America at any point in time. In an election year, it is even more so. Countless Americans choose who to vote for based on whether or not the politician is pro-life or pro-choice. But why do some Americans vote pro-choice or pro-life? What variables affect their beliefs on abortion and how strong are those variables in relation to others? This paper dives into the ways in which education and religion affect abortion opinions and researches the strength of those variables in relation to one another. In …

Should We Expect Each Year In The Next Decade (2019–28) To Be Ranked Among The Top 10 Warmest Years Globally?, Anthony Arguez, Shannan Hurley, Anand Inamdar, Laurel Mahoney, Ahira Sanchez-Lugo, Lilian Yang

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Annual rankings of global temperature are widely cited by media and the general public, not only to place the most recent year in a historical perspective, but also as a first-order metric of recent climate change that is easily digestible by the general public. Moreover, all annual NOAAGlobalTemp anomalies from 1880 (the earliest reading available) through the mid-1970s are well below anomalies of the top 10 warmest years in Table 1, even when considering the uncertainty of the NOAAGlobalTemp time series values. While we expect the algorithm's performance to be largely independent of any changes made to the way that …

Abandoned By Home And Burden Of Host: Evaluating States' Economic Ability And Refugee Acceptance Through Panel Data Analysis, Ummey Hanney Tabassum

Browse all Theses and Dissertations

This research examines the relationship between the number of refugees hosted by states and the economic ability of host states by using UNHCR’s refugee data and World Bank’s GNI per capita data. To identify the relationship between these two variables, this study uses two sets of panel data covering 145-178 countries, around 43-55 years and 3000-5000 observations. For the two sets of panel data, four models are produced to test the null and alternative hypotheses. In all four cases, results show that there is a statistically significant negative correlation between the number of refugees hosted by states and GNI per …

The Effect Of Unemployment On Democratic Warfare, Andres Rakower

Honors Undergraduate Theses

This study was done to see the effects of a war on the economy and the internal politics of the United States. In selecting the engagement, we would study we agreed the Iraq War would be aided by a large amount of sampling of public opinion that was more nuanced than in previous wars. The Iraq War was a very complicated war, as it was controversial from the beginning and became a political issue while continuing to be a war fought by Americans abroad. Based on the literature, there were many starting effects and assumptions that were accounted for such …

Constitutionalism And Democracy Dataset, Version 1.0, Todd A. Eisenstadt, Carl Levan, Tofigh Maboudi

Political Science: Faculty Publications and Other Works

The main objective of the CDD is to quantify the process of constitution-making since 1974. This is the first public release of any data on the process of constitution-making. This release includes data on 144 national constitutions promulgated in 119 countries from 1974 to 2014. The unit of analysis in the data is national constitutions. The data in this release includes only “new” constitutions and does not include suspended, re-installed, amended, or interim constitutions. In this release, only countries with a population larger than 500,000 are included. The authors intend to update the data by including all countries, expanding the …

Pretrial Detention And Bail, Megan Stevenson, Sandra G. Mayson

All Faculty Scholarship

Our current pretrial system imposes high costs on both the people who are detained pretrial and the taxpayers who foot the bill. These costs have prompted a surge of bail reform around the country. Reformers seek to reduce pretrial detention rates, as well as racial and socioeconomic disparities in the pretrial system, while simultaneously improving appearance rates and reducing pretrial crime. The current state of pretrial practice suggests that there is ample room for improvement. Bail hearings are often cursory, with no defense counsel present. Money-bail practices lead to high rates of detention even among misdemeanor defendants and those who …

When Words Are Worse Than Bullets: A Study Of Corruption As An Unintended Consequence Of Threats Of Sanctions, Aleksei Balanov

Browse all Theses and Dissertations

This research contributes to the debates on the efficacy of economic sanctions as a tool of international diplomacy. It focuses on corruption, one of the potential unintended consequences of sanctions. Using multiple regression on a custom cross-sectional time series dataset of more than a thousand observations, this research finds the correlation between threats of sanctions and level of corruption statistically significant. The model suggests each new round of threats translates into a 1.25% increase in corruption for relatively clean states and a 5% increase for already corrupt states. The resulting policy implications are examined in this thesis.

Empirical Methods-A Review: With An Introduction To Data Mining And Machine Learning, Matt Bogard

Economics Faculty Publications

This presentation was part of a staff workshop focused on empirical methods and applied research. This includes a basic overview of regression with matrix algebra, maximum likelihood, inference, and model assumptions. Distinctions are made between paradigms related to classical statistical methods and algorithmic approaches. The presentation concludes with a brief discussion of generalization error, data partitioning, decision trees, and neural networks.

How Many Deaths? Problems In The Statistics Of Massacre In Indonesia (1965-1966) And East Timor (1975-1980), Robert Cribb

Robert Cribb

Likely And Unlikely Events In International Security Affairs: An Example From The People's Republic Of China, Ibpp Editor

International Bulletin of Political Psychology

This article describes a human judgment shortfall in international security decision making based on statistical probabilities.

Pages Per Term In The United States Reports And Converting Supreme Court Citations To Term Announced: A Statistical Research Tool, Donald J. Kochan

Donald J. Kochan

This short article presents a valuable statistical research tool for those involved in analysis of U.S. Supreme Court opinions. Researchers are made available the data regarding the number of pages that the Supreme Court has written each term and provides an easier basis for identifying this page count with the term announced, which is not otherwise immediately evident from the volume number of the U.S. Reports.

Birds Of Paradise And Environmental Politics In Colonial Indonesia, 1890-1931, Robert Cribb

Robert Cribb

Pressure to protect the bird of paradise, native to New Guinea and eastern Indonesia, began to develop in the late nineteenth century. Progress was slow, partly because lack of knowledge of the ecology of the birds made it difficult to assess the best way to provide protection, partly because of problems of enforcement, partly because of countervailing interests represented by the trade in pelts.