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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

Groundwater Modeling Of The Ogallala Aquifer: Use Of Machine Learning For Model Parameterization And Sustainability Assessment, Tewodros Aboret Tilahun Aug 2024

Groundwater Modeling Of The Ogallala Aquifer: Use Of Machine Learning For Model Parameterization And Sustainability Assessment, Tewodros Aboret Tilahun

Dissertations and Doctoral Documents from University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 2023–

Addressing groundwater depletion problems in heterogeneous aquifer systems is a challenge. The heterogeneous Ogallala Aquifer, a critical source of groundwater in the central United States, has undergone decades of decline in water levels due to pumping. This project aims to build a robust groundwater model to evaluate optimal scenarios for sustainable use of the groundwater resource within a section of the Ogallala aquifer located in the Middle Republican Natural Resources District (MRNRD). This study follows a comprehensive approach involving parameterization, construction, and optimization. The model is parametrized using hydraulic conductivity and recharge values obtained from a random forest-based machine learning …


Applying Circuit Theory To Describe Changes In Structural Landscape Connectivity In Response To Wildfire, Christian Ross Nielsen Aug 2024

Applying Circuit Theory To Describe Changes In Structural Landscape Connectivity In Response To Wildfire, Christian Ross Nielsen

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Understanding and conserving ecological connectivity is critical to the preservation of vulnerable landscapes. Circuit theory, in which landscapes are imagined as circuit boards with varying resistances to the flow of current, is being increasingly used to model spatially explicit connectivity of landscapes and to inform land management and conservation decision-making. Utilizing continuous, quantitative estimates of percent cover by five land cover functional groups to create a conductance surface, this study expanded upon an established application of circuit theory that used the open-source software Circuitscape to model species-agnostic, omnidirectional connectivity. This model was automated using Python to create time-series connectivity maps …


Assessing, Restoring, And Centering Social-Ecological Relationships For Advancing Social-Ecological Resilience In The Northern Great Plains Grasslands, Katia Pilar Carranza Bernal Aug 2024

Assessing, Restoring, And Centering Social-Ecological Relationships For Advancing Social-Ecological Resilience In The Northern Great Plains Grasslands, Katia Pilar Carranza Bernal

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The Northern Great Plains grasslands are social-ecological systems that were shaped by evolutionary and Indigenous social-ecological relationships. European colonization disrupted many of these interactions, including the coupling of fire and grazing, and degraded social-ecological resilience, shifting these grasslands to a new state. For those reasons, my research focused on assessing, restoring, and centering evolutionary and Indigenous social-ecological relationships for advancing social-ecological resilience in the Northern Great Plains grasslands. I first performed a study in the Nebraska Sandhillls assessing the potential of patch-burn grazing to support grassland resilience by comparing its effects to those of rotational grazing. Through vegetation and bird …


Analysis Of Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation Events And Their Impacts In Kenya, Betty Makena Aug 2024

Analysis Of Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation Events And Their Impacts In Kenya, Betty Makena

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation (DFAA) is a compound disaster event that refers to the abrupt shift of extreme drought events to extreme floods resulting in exacerbated impacts on already vulnerable communities and hindering their coping abilities. This study aimed to analyze drought-flood abrupt alternation events and their impacts in Kenya. The first chapter aimed to understand historical drought events in the Greater Horn of Africa and their impacts, while drawing comparisons with the recent 2020-2022 drought period, referred to as the ‘triple dip La Niña’. Datasets used in this study include the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS), Normalized …


Remotely Sensed Early Warning Of Algal Blooms In An Eastern Nebraska Reservoir: A Comparison Of Temporal And Spatial Indicators, Mercy Kipenda Aug 2024

Remotely Sensed Early Warning Of Algal Blooms In An Eastern Nebraska Reservoir: A Comparison Of Temporal And Spatial Indicators, Mercy Kipenda

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CyanoHABs) detrimentally affect human, animal, and ecosystem health. Remotely sensed early warning systems for cyanoHABs in inland lakes could contribute to more proactive water quality monitoring and help mitigate negative impacts. Advances in freely available remote sensing imagery, with finer spatial, temporal, and spectral resolutions, present new opportunities for the development and comparative analysis of methods to detect sudden deterioration in lake water quality. In this thesis, I compared and tested for temporal and spatial early warning signals of cyanoHABs in field-based and remotely sensed datasets from 2019 to 2023 in Pawnee Lake in southeast Nebraska, …


Transforming Grassland Conservation: Challenges And Opportunities Across Law, Policy, And Human Dimensions, Conor D. Barnes Aug 2024

Transforming Grassland Conservation: Challenges And Opportunities Across Law, Policy, And Human Dimensions, Conor D. Barnes

Dissertations and Doctoral Documents from University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 2023–

Great Plains social-ecological systems are facing growing pressure from complex, ‘wicked’ problems. Addressing these problems will require integrating ecological resilience and complex systems thinking concepts into our legal framework in order to better reflect the changing ecological reality of the Great Plains and promote flexibility and adaptability in the face of that change. In this dissertation, I examine how past and present policy priorities have affected social-ecological systems on the Great Plains, and how ecological resilience and complex systems thinking might be applied to grassland management policy. In Chapter 2, I examine the rapid progress made in the adoption of …


Virtual Fencing In Livestock Management: Effects On Beef Cattle Stress And Enhancing Wildlife Conservation, Kaitlyn E. Dozler Jul 2024

Virtual Fencing In Livestock Management: Effects On Beef Cattle Stress And Enhancing Wildlife Conservation, Kaitlyn E. Dozler

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

I examined the effects of virtual fencing on beef cattle stress and how implementing the technology can aid wildlife habitat conservation at the University of Nebraska Gudmundsen Sandhills laboratory (GSL) near Whitman, NE. First, I examined how virtual fencing influences acute heart rate changes in beef cattle fitted with the virtual fencing collars. No significant difference in the average heart rate of a cow (P > 0.05) was observed between the 30 min control and virtual fenced periods for both trial dates. Second, I examined the influence of topography on wildlife species richness and presence at GSL using wildlife camera …


Spatial Ecology Of Mountain Lions Throughout Their Distribution In California, Kyle D. Dougherty Jul 2024

Spatial Ecology Of Mountain Lions Throughout Their Distribution In California, Kyle D. Dougherty

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Mountain lions (Puma concolor) have been studied extensively throughout their wide geographic distribution in the Western Hemisphere, but most research has been conducted at relatively small spatial scales. We used GPS telemetry data contributed by researchers in 16 study areas throughout California to advance understanding of mountain lion spatial ecology. First, we investigated multi-scale resource selection of mountain lions relative to spatially varying risk of intentional human-caused mortality associated with livestock depredation management. We show that individuals that proactively avoided mortality risk when selecting home ranges were able to relax their avoidance of risk when making resource selection …


Exploring Producers' Willingness To Pay For Ecosystem Services: Three Essays On Soil Health, Location Preferences, And Cover Crop Adoption, Kaouter Essakkat Jul 2024

Exploring Producers' Willingness To Pay For Ecosystem Services: Three Essays On Soil Health, Location Preferences, And Cover Crop Adoption, Kaouter Essakkat

Dissertations and Doctoral Documents from University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 2023–

This dissertation comprises three essays: one assessing Midwest producers' willingness-to-pay (WTP) for soil health-enhancing ecosystem services (ES), another examining the impact of policy implementation locations on WTP, and a third identifying factors influencing producers' adoption of cover crops (CC).

The first essay pioneers the understanding of agricultural producers’ valuation of soil health-associated ES amid growing concerns of soil degradation due to agricultural intensification. Using a discrete choice experiment, this study assesses producers’ WTP for a policy that incentivizes ES provision, specifically improved water quality, carbon sequestration, and enhanced crop yield. Surveying producers across Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska, our results show …


Agricultural Groundcover Update April 2024, Justin Laycock Jun 2024

Agricultural Groundcover Update April 2024, Justin Laycock

Natural resources published reports

  • In April, over 12% (1,876,000 ha) of the arable farmland in the south-west of Western Australia had less than 50% vegetative groundcover, which is inadequate to prevent wind erosion.
  • Northern grainbelt had the highest risk of wind erosion and over 26% of this farmland had inadequate groundcover, predominantly found on landscapes known for sandy soils.
  • About 1.5% (238,900 ha) of arable land had a high to very high risk of wind erosion because groundcover was less than 30%.


Agricultural Groundcover Update May 2024, Justin Laycock Jun 2024

Agricultural Groundcover Update May 2024, Justin Laycock

Natural resources published reports

  • In May, over 9% (1,410,000 ha) of the arable farmland in the south-west of Western Australia had less than 50% vegetative groundcover, which is inadequate to prevent wind erosion.
  • Northern grainbelt had the highest risk of wind erosion and over 26% of this farmland had inadequate groundcover, predominantly found on landscapes known for sandy soils.
  • About 1.3% (208,900 ha) of arable land had a high to very high risk of wind erosion because groundcover was less than 30%. Half of this land was in the West Midlands Ag Soil Zone.


Identifying Phytoremediation Performing Plant Species That Can Be Utilized In The Improvement Of Heavy Metal Contaminated Soils, Ashley Clark*, Samuel Mutiti May 2024

Identifying Phytoremediation Performing Plant Species That Can Be Utilized In The Improvement Of Heavy Metal Contaminated Soils, Ashley Clark*, Samuel Mutiti

Graduate Research Showcase

Heavy metal pollution is a problem associated with industrialization and development. Two major metals that are commonly mined and can enter the environment, which can jeopardize communities’ health, are copper (Cu) and lead (Pb). There are different options for reducing heavy metal pollution in the environment via remediation efforts, including physical, chemical, and biological methods. However, physical and chemical remediation can be costly and labor-intensive, making them unsuitable for regions that do not have the funds to utilize these practices. Biological remediation is a more cost-conservative practice that has been shown in many studies to be effective in the gradual …


5-Year Strategic Direction, 2024–2028: Institute Of Agriculture And Natural Resources, University Of Nebraska–Lincoln, Institute Of Agriculture And Natural Resources University Of Nebraska-Lincoln May 2024

5-Year Strategic Direction, 2024–2028: Institute Of Agriculture And Natural Resources, University Of Nebraska–Lincoln, Institute Of Agriculture And Natural Resources University Of Nebraska-Lincoln

Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources: Institute Publications

IANR: Integrating Learning, Discovery, and Engagement for an Even Better Nebraska

Includes an introduction, description of the components of the Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln, the IANR pillars, stratgeic aims for 2024–2028, and a section on implementation.


Agricultural Groundcover Update March 2024, Justin Laycock May 2024

Agricultural Groundcover Update March 2024, Justin Laycock

Natural resources published reports

  • In March, over 10% (1,577,000 ha) of the arable farmland in the south-west of Western Australia had less than 50% vegetative groundcover, which is inadequate to prevent wind erosion.
  • The northern grainbelt had the highest risk of wind erosion and over 20% of this farmland had inadequate groundcover.
  • About 1.3% (191,000 ha) of arable land had a high to very high risk of wind erosion because groundcover was less than 30%.


The Conservation Project: An Exploration Of Multimedia In Ocean Conservation, Ilaria Bardini May 2024

The Conservation Project: An Exploration Of Multimedia In Ocean Conservation, Ilaria Bardini

Honors College

The Conservation Project ties in many elements of multimedia and its possible applications in marine conservation. The purpose of this thesis was to develop new skills in videography, photography, podcast production, and website development through which to deepen my understanding of the multimedia as a tool in science, through the development of a website.


The State Of The Carbon Capture And Sequestration Industry In California In 2024: Challenges And Policy Solutions, Noah Jackson Apr 2024

The State Of The Carbon Capture And Sequestration Industry In California In 2024: Challenges And Policy Solutions, Noah Jackson

School of Public Policy Capstones

Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) is the process of capturing CO2 from an above ground carbon source, transporting it to a sequestration well, and permanently sinking it deep underground. Despite the state of California depending on CCS to reach carbon neutrality, not one CCS project is operational yet in the state. Due to the recent creation and expansion of state low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) credits and the federal 45Q credits, CCS projects are beginning to be developed. Between 2021 and 2023 twelve Class VI applications were submitted to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in California.

This paper …


Agricultural Groundcover Update February 2024, Justin Laycock Apr 2024

Agricultural Groundcover Update February 2024, Justin Laycock

Natural resources published reports

  • About 92% of the grainbelt had adequate (more than 50%) vegetative groundcover to prevent wind erosion in February 2024.
  • Nearly 8% of the grainbelt (1,193,400 ha) had less than 50% groundcover, which is inadequate to prevent wind erosion.
  • The northern grainbelt had the highest risk of wind erosion and 16.5% of this farmland had inadequate groundcover.
  • Less than 0.7% of the grainbelt had a high to very high risk of wind erosion because groundcover was less than 30%.


Demographic Consequences Of Off-River Nesting For Piping Plover (Charadrius Melodus) And Interior Least Tern (Sternula Antillarum Athalassos) In The Lower Platte River System, Nebraska, Elsa M. Forsberg Apr 2024

Demographic Consequences Of Off-River Nesting For Piping Plover (Charadrius Melodus) And Interior Least Tern (Sternula Antillarum Athalassos) In The Lower Platte River System, Nebraska, Elsa M. Forsberg

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Piping plovers (Charadrius melodus; hereafter, plovers) and interior least terns (Sternula antillarum athalassos; hereafter, terns) are two avian species that nest along the Lower Platte River system (LPRS) in Nebraska. In the LPRS, river sandbars provide natural nesting habitat, but off-river sites provide substantial nesting habitat especially when sandbar habitat is scarce. Although presumed to be important for the persistence of plovers and terns, off-river habitat is not self-sustaining and predicted to decline. Understanding the vital rates of plovers and terns in the LPRS will inform the role of off- river sites in the future conservation …


Community Opinions On Environmental Action On Isla Porvenir And Whichub Walla In The Guna Yala Comarca, Sofia Houts Apr 2024

Community Opinions On Environmental Action On Isla Porvenir And Whichub Walla In The Guna Yala Comarca, Sofia Houts

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

The Guna Yala Comarca is the autonomous, self-governed territory of the Guna people, one of seven Indigenous groups in Panama. The Comarca is located on Panama’s eastern Caribbean coast and includes 365 coral islands. Forty nine Guna communities and roughly 32,000 individuals live in the territory. The Guna General Congress is the highest authority, and each community has a local congress. As a low-lying coastal region, Guna Yala is especially vulnerable to climate change and is already impacted by sea level rise, biodiversity loss, and changing precipitation patterns. Sub-national, national, and international forms of governance and environmental action are crucial …


Community Knowledge Of Shark Ecology, Abundance, And Species Composition In Wichubwala, Nalunega, And Porvenir Communities In The Guna Yala Comarca, Panamá, Kayley Jane Porter Apr 2024

Community Knowledge Of Shark Ecology, Abundance, And Species Composition In Wichubwala, Nalunega, And Porvenir Communities In The Guna Yala Comarca, Panamá, Kayley Jane Porter

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Sharks play a critical role in marine ecosystems as apex predators that exert top-down control of lower trophic levels. In recent decades, global shark populations have declined to unprecedented levels, triggering a cascade effect that threatens ecosystem functioning and, therefore, coastal community livelihoods that rely on marine resources for food and income. It is known that shark populations are vulnerable and on the decline due to anthropogenic stressors such as fishing and coastal development, but shark species composition and abundance are difficult to monitor due to the evasive nature of sharks, the often remote and inaccessible location of certain shark …


Avian Diversity And Abundance Among Agricultural Land, Forested Land, And Their Ecotone In Guadalupe, Cerro Punta, Chiriquí Province, Republic Of Panamá., Stella Rae Kinard Apr 2024

Avian Diversity And Abundance Among Agricultural Land, Forested Land, And Their Ecotone In Guadalupe, Cerro Punta, Chiriquí Province, Republic Of Panamá., Stella Rae Kinard

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

As the human population increases, finding the balance between modifying land use for resources and protecting areas to preserve species that are threatened by anthropogenic disturbance is an ever growing problem. Guadalupe is a town in the Western Highlands of Panamá that struggles in this balance as its primary income source is agriculture, but it is located on the border of two protected areas, Parque Nacional La Amistad and Parque Nacional Volcán Barú. By understanding the unique ways in which avifauna utilize distinct vegetative landscapes, recommendations can be made for management styles of farms in Guadalupe to implement practices that …


Agricultural Groundcover Update January 2024, Justin Laycock Feb 2024

Agricultural Groundcover Update January 2024, Justin Laycock

Natural resources published reports

Summary

  • About 94% of the grainbelt had adequate (more than 50%) vegetative groundcover to prevent wind erosion in January 2024.
  • In the northern half of the grainbelt, a larger-than-average area has 51–60% groundcover, which is expected to decrease to below 50% over the coming months.
  • Just under 6% of the grainbelt (855,000 ha) had less than 50% groundcover, which is inadequate to prevent wind erosion. West Midlands Ag Soil Zone had the highest risk of wind erosion and 14.5% of this farmland had inadequate groundcover.
  • Less than 0.5% of the grainbelt had a high to very high risk of wind …


Agricultural Groundcover Update December 2023, Justin Laycock Jan 2024

Agricultural Groundcover Update December 2023, Justin Laycock

Natural resources published reports

Summary

  • About 96% of the grainbelt had adequate vegetative groundcover (more than 50%) to prevent wind erosion in December 2023.
  • In the northern half of the grainbelt, a larger-than-average area has 51–60% groundcover, which is expected to decrease to below 50% over the summer.
  • Just under 4% of the grainbelt (553,000 ha) had less than 50% groundcover, which is inadequate to prevent wind erosion. West Midlands Ag Soil Zone had the highest risk of wind erosion and 11.4% of this farmland had inadequate groundcover.
  • Less than 0.5% of the grainbelt had a high to very high risk of wind erosion …


Delayed Coastal Inundations Caused By Ocean Dynamics Post-Hurricane Matthew, Kyungmin Park, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Yinglong J. Zhang, Tal Ezer, Fei Yi Jan 2024

Delayed Coastal Inundations Caused By Ocean Dynamics Post-Hurricane Matthew, Kyungmin Park, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Yinglong J. Zhang, Tal Ezer, Fei Yi

CCPO Publications

Post Hurricane Abnormal Water Level (PHAWL) poses a persistent inundation threat to coastal communities, yet unresolved knowledge gaps exist regarding its spatiotemporal impacts and causal mechanisms. Using a high-resolution coastal model with a set of observations, we find that the PHAWLs are up to 50 cm higher than the normal water levels for several weeks and cause delayed inundations around residential areas of the U.S. Southeast Coast (USSC). Numerical experiments reveal that while atmospheric forcing modulates the coastal PHAWLs, ocean dynamics primarily driven by the Gulf Stream control the mean component and duration of the shelf-scale PHAWLs. Because of the …


Wild Sun Bears (Helarctos Malayanus) Exhibit Aseasonality In Parturition, Zachary A. David, Brian Crudge, Matt Hunt, Kirsty Officer, Vuthy Choun, Barbara Durrant, Megan A. Owen, Morokot Long, John P. Whiteman Jan 2024

Wild Sun Bears (Helarctos Malayanus) Exhibit Aseasonality In Parturition, Zachary A. David, Brian Crudge, Matt Hunt, Kirsty Officer, Vuthy Choun, Barbara Durrant, Megan A. Owen, Morokot Long, John P. Whiteman

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Seasonal reproduction can provide species with fitness advantages by allowing the birth of young to coincide with favorable environmental conditions, particularly in environments with high seasonal and intra-annual variation in these conditions. Seven of the eight species in the bear family (Ursidae) reproduce seasonally in both managed care and the wild; however, data for the eighth species, the sun bear (Helarctos malayanus), is unclear. Sun bears have been observed to reproduce throughout the year in managed care, yet currently there are no clear data of birth timing for wild sun bear cubs. Here we investigate the seasonality of …


The Influence Of Invasive Species On Fishers’ Satisfactions, Caroline M. Laplante Dec 2023

The Influence Of Invasive Species On Fishers’ Satisfactions, Caroline M. Laplante

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Invasives species are prevalent and widespread in North America. Outdoor recreational activities, such as fishing, introduce a point in which humans may interact with invasive species and have to adapt their own behaviors. Bigheaded carp in the Missouri River below Gavin’s Point Dam are a group of invasive fish species that were thought to be negatively relating to recreational fishers’ satisfactions. Using a content analysis and an importance-grid, we conclude that invasive species do not strongly relate to recreational paddlefish fishers’ satisfactions. Paddlefish fishers represent a small sub-set of recreational fishers in Nebraska and South Dakota. The content analysis revealed …


Understanding Avidities Of Recreational Activities For People Possessing Fishing Licenses And Residing In Urban Environments, Kyle F. Hansen Dec 2023

Understanding Avidities Of Recreational Activities For People Possessing Fishing Licenses And Residing In Urban Environments, Kyle F. Hansen

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Recreational fishing is one of the world's most popular pastimes, wherein participation is associated with sociodemographic factors. Even so, fishing license sales are declining in the USA in conjunction with a reduction in rural populations as people move to urban areas. Thus, urban areas are constantly growing in population size, population diversity, and geographic size suggesting a need to understand fishing participation in these growing areas. Natural resource managers often use participation to understand recreationists, yet avidity could provide a new way to understand recreationists. The goal of our study is to understand what sociodemographic factors influence the fishing avidity …


Human Dimensions Of Woody Encroachment Management In Nebraska, Emily Rowen Dec 2023

Human Dimensions Of Woody Encroachment Management In Nebraska, Emily Rowen

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Woody plant encroachment (WPE) is a social-ecological problem that will challenge conservation professionals and agricultural producers to adapt their management strategies. This research first examined WPE from the perspective of individual conservation professionals through an online survey. Conservation professionals’ attitudes about adaptation to vegetation transitions, such as WPE, were of interest because these attitudes are one measure of how prepared this group is to respond to WPE. Hypothesized predictors of adaptation attitude were tested through linear regression modeling. These predictors included ecological change, observation of WPE, or risk perception. It was found that risk perception was the strongest predictor of …


Agricultural Groundcover Update November 2023, Justin Laycock Dec 2023

Agricultural Groundcover Update November 2023, Justin Laycock

Natural resources published reports

Summary

  • About 98% of the grainbelt had adequate (more than 50%) vegetative groundcover to prevent wind erosion in November 2023. This amount of groundcover is normal for the middle of harvest.
  • In the northern half of the grainbelt, a larger-than-average area had 51–60% groundcover, which is expected to decrease to below 50% over summer.
  • Just over 2% of the grainbelt (324,000 ha) had less than 50% groundcover, which is inadequate to prevent wind erosion. Mullewa to Morawa Ag Soil Zone had the highest risk of wind erosion and 9.7% of this farmland had inadequate groundcover.
  • Less than 0.5% of the …


The Perception Of Natural Resource Management In Nebraska: Efforts For Cross-Boundary Collaborative Management, Daniel Morales Dec 2023

The Perception Of Natural Resource Management In Nebraska: Efforts For Cross-Boundary Collaborative Management, Daniel Morales

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Nebraska’s agricultural landscapes are rapidly changing, affecting natural resources and their successful management. I utilized two surveys and scenario planning (Chapters 1: statewide survey, 2: local survey, and 3: scenario-planning workshop) to investigate attitudes and perceptions of natural resource management and cross-boundary collaboration. My first objective focused on determining what prevents Nebraskans from addressing natural resources challenges, considering demographics amongst generations and the type of areas they live in (rural versus urban). The second objective focused on whether landowners engaged with their community in managing natural resources. The third objective was to develop alternative future scenarios for the Denton Hills …