Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Institutional Divergence In Economic Development, Jonathan B. Wight

Economics Faculty Publications

The Anglo-American capitalist model (AACM) encompasses a set of theories and policies that advance the classical objectives of individual autonomy, wealth acquisition, and economic growth. In the twentieth century, the neoclassical goal of short-run Pareto efficiency was added yet remains in possible tension with these other aims. The AACM generally upholds the primacy of markets as the means for achieving its normative ideals through private, decentralized actions, with some exceptions. In the modern political arena this ideology is associated with the Reagan-Thatcher revolution of the 1980s and provides a framework for many who oppose statist solutions to social problems (Steger …

Public Policy, Human Instincts, And Economic Growth, Jonathan B. Wight

Economics Faculty Publications

Alfred Marshall famously insisted that economics is more like biology than physics. Societies are organic ecologies that evolve and produce organized but unplanned complexity (Hayek 1979). Although no public policy reliably produces economic growth across all ecosystems, a key element unites diverse institutions and policies that do seem to work: they all are reasonably compatible with human instinct. Institutions that build on the basic instinct for self-betterment (as in markets) have a much easier time in achieving success than institutions that oppose it (as in communism). Instincts, like gravity, are a force of nature. Adam Smith theorized, for example, …

Moral Markets: The Critical Role Of Values In The Economy By Paul J. Zak (Book Review), Jonathan B. Wight

Economics Faculty Publications

This volume contains the fruits of a two-year seminar on ethics and economics funded by the John Templeton Foundation and administered through the Gruter Institute for Law and Behavioral Research. Participants came from the social sciences, natural sciences, and humanities, and included Nobel Laureate Vernon Smith and other figures such as Frans de Waal, Herbert Gintis, Robert Frank, and Robert Solomon (for whom the book is dedicated in memoriam). The book’s editor, Paul Zak, is a pioneer in the emerging field of neuroeconomics, which uses medical technology to discover the physiological manifestations of cooperative and altruistic behavior. A theme of …

Commentary, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

It is a pleasure to discuss Richard Anderson and Charles Gascon’s (2009) article on their attempt to develop a state-space model to measure potential output growth in the face of data revisions. They use the methodology of Cunningham et al. (2007) applied to real output, to see if they can develop a better measure of potential output than other researchers. Such an approach seems promising, and they develop a unique method to study the data.

Culture And Prosperity: The Truth About Markets—Why Some Nations Are Rich But Most Remain Poor (Book Review), Jonathan B. Wight

Economics Faculty Publications

John Kay’s latest book offers an absorbing romp through the history of economic thought in the 20th century. Kay attempts to explain the complex reality of a modern market system rather than resorting to simplistic theorizing about it. Gone are perfectly rational traders, perfectly competitive markets, incentive compatibilities, low transaction costs, informational symmetries, and no externalities. Kay highlights problems and problem solving as the ubiquitous and historical strata through which markets in the West evolved.

How Do Forecasts Respond To Changes In Monetary Policy?, Laurence Ball, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

Just as changes in atmospheric conditions affect weather forecasts, changes in monetary policy affect economic forecasts. When monetary policy shifts, forecasters change their predictions about growth and inflation. But does the economy change to the same extent that forecasts do? In this article, Laurence Ball and Dean Croushore examine forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to determine if forecasts and the economy respond in tandem or if there are significant differences.

Does Free Trade Cause Hunger? Hidden Implications Of The Ftaa, Jonathan B. Wight

Economics Faculty Publications

Voluntary free trade has the potential, slowly and gradually over time, to create "general opulence" because it allows workers to acquire greater competency and specialization: in a word, workers become more productive. The creation of a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) would expand market areas and thereby potentially contribute to raising future living standards of workers. This paper seeks to analyze the theoretical basis for trade, provide an economic overview of FTAA countries, and analyze the winners and losers from trade.

Economic Crisis And Reform In Bulgaria, 1989-92, Jonathan B. Wight, M. Louise Fox

Economics Faculty Publications

Bulgaria's economy began a deep and prolonged collapse in 1989, exactly one hundred years after the noted Bulgarian novelist Ivan Vazov published his stirring novel opposing the tyranny of the Ottomans and warning of the mistaken road of socialism. The 1989 collapse was partially a reflection of the external political upheavals among Bulgaria's trading partners in Eastern Europe, which were rejecting socialist principles. But it was also a reflection of the weaknesses imbedded in the economy after 30 years of central planning. Political instability within Bulgaria, market reforms, and attempts at privatization contributed further to economic uncertainty resulting in a …

The Livingston Survey: Still Useful After All These Years, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

The decisions of households, firms, and government agencies depend on forecasts of the overall economy. Large firms and the federal government often have the resources to hire their own economists to provide forecasts. But households, small firms, and local governments often depend on surveys of forecasters to get their information. In this article, Dean Croushore spotlights the Livingston Survey, which, even after 50 years, still provides useful forecasts of the economy.

Evaluating Mccallum's Rule For Monetary Policy, Dean D. Croushore, Tom Stark

Economics Faculty Publications

Some economists have proposed that the Federal Reserve follow a rigid rule for conducting monetary policy. A policy rule is a formula that tells the Fed how to set monetary policy. For example, in 1959 Milton Friedman argued that the Fed should increase the money supply a constant 4 percent each year to eliminate inflation and avoid destabilizing the economy. More recently, other economists have identified an additional benefit: a rule can eliminate the inflationary bias that could occur when discretionary monetary policy is used. Under a discretionary policy, decisions are made on a case-by-case basis.

But economists don't agree …

Introducing: The Survey Of Professional Forecasters, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

Forecasts play a crucial role in the economy. Businesses won't hire workers as readily if they think the economy may go into a recession soon. Long-term interest rates will rise if people in the financial markets expect inflation to increase. And firms are less likely to borrow money for new investment spending today if they think interest rates will soon decline.

Forecasts are important for many decisions, but not many people have the knowledge and experience to forecast economic variables well. It makes sense, therefore, for people to rely on the forecasts of experts. One easy way to get these …

What Are The Costs Of Disinflation?, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

The Federal Reserve can use monetary policy to reduce the inflation rate, a process known as disinflation. Are the benefits of disinflation worth the costs? Proponents of disinflation argue that the long-run benefits of price stability, including lower interest rates, increased economic efficiency, and perhaps faster economic growth, greatly exceed the short-run costs. Opponents, of course, claim the opposite, usually arguing that the short-run costs in terms of higher unemployment and lost output would be immense.

How Big Is Your Share Of Government Debt?, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

In evaluating the government's financial position, taxpayers need to account not only for its debt, but also for its ownership of tangible assets. Each taxpayer has a share of the government's net worth that is positive; however, the share was larger 10 years ago. While the real net debt tripled, this huge rise in government indebtedness generated no similar gain in government assets. Taxpayers will be paying interest on this debt with little hope of higher future returns from government assets to help pay it off. It is recommended that the government adopt a capital-budgeting system. This system would change …