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University of Richmond

Economics Faculty Publications

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The Personal Saving Rate: Data Revisions And Forecasts, Dean Croushore, Pedro Del Monaco Santos Oct 2022

The Personal Saving Rate: Data Revisions And Forecasts, Dean Croushore, Pedro Del Monaco Santos

Economics Faculty Publications

Revisions to the U.S. personal saving rate are very large and may be predictable. We decompose the revisions of the personal saving rate into those caused by revisions to income and those caused by revisions to household outlays. We use our findings to explore the forecastability of future revisions of the personal saving rate.


Fast Poisson Estimation With High-Dimensional Fixed Effects, Sergio Correia, Paulo Guimarães, Thomas Zylkin Jan 2020

Fast Poisson Estimation With High-Dimensional Fixed Effects, Sergio Correia, Paulo Guimarães, Thomas Zylkin

Economics Faculty Publications

In this paper we present ppmlhdfe, a new Stata command for estimation of (pseudo) Poisson regression models with multiple high-dimensional fixed effects (HDFE). Estimation is implemented using a modified version of the iteratively reweighted least-squares (IRLS) algorithm that allows for fast estimation in the presence of HDFE. Because the code is built around the reghdfe package, it has similar syntax, supports many of the same functionalities, and benefits from reghdfe’s fast convergence properties for computing high-dimensional least squares problems. Performance is further enhanced by some new techniques we introduce for accelerating HDFE-IRLS estimation specifically ppmlhdfe also implements a novel and …


Learning Effects Of The Flipped Classroom In A Principles Of Microeconomics Course Running Header: Flipped Principles Of Micro, Erik Craft, Maia K. Linask Jan 2019

Learning Effects Of The Flipped Classroom In A Principles Of Microeconomics Course Running Header: Flipped Principles Of Micro, Erik Craft, Maia K. Linask

Economics Faculty Publications

The authors of this article estimate the learning effects of the flipped classroom format using data from 16 sections of principles of microeconomics over a 4-year period. The experimental design is unique in that two treatment and two control sections were taught during the fall semester in four consecutive years. Further, the instructor switched the time of day when the treatment and control sections were taught each year. Controlling for gender, ACT score, a normed high school GPA, Pell Grant award, time of day, and initial knowledge of economics, the authors find no evidence of increased learning using end-of-semester measures …


Setting An Agenda For The Future, Sam Allgood, Kimmarie Mcgoldrick Jan 2019

Setting An Agenda For The Future, Sam Allgood, Kimmarie Mcgoldrick

Economics Faculty Publications

Anniversaries are a time for reflection and planning for the future. The fiftieth year of the Journal of Economic Education motivated us to invite those who have been intimately involved with the Journal to provide reflections, which appear within this symposium. In addition to providing a wealth of information about the past, they set the stage for initiatives that support the path forward.


Switching Majors – Into And Out Of Economics, Tisha L. N. Emerson, Kimmarie Mcgoldrick Jan 2019

Switching Majors – Into And Out Of Economics, Tisha L. N. Emerson, Kimmarie Mcgoldrick

Economics Faculty Publications

Using student transcripts from six institutions over a 23-year timespan, the authors investigate the movement of students into and out of the economics major. Considerable movement between majors occurs with 83 percent of economics graduates switching in after their first principles course. These eventual majors come from a variety of sources, but primarily from business, engineering, science & math. In an absolute sense, weaker students (as measured by cumulative GPA) switch into economics. However, students appear to move to disciplines of relative academic strength (as indicated by relative grades). While females from other majors are less likely to switch into …


What Should We Teach In Intermediate Macroeconomics?, Dean D. Croushore Jan 2019

What Should We Teach In Intermediate Macroeconomics?, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

The major focus of a course in Intermediate Macroeconomics is building and understanding macroeconomic models and how they work. The course is the most analytical course in the curriculum and should lead students to embark on deep thinking about models and equilibrium. Students learn the essentials of a model and develop the concept of how to simplify a model to understand key concepts. Once the core of a model is developed, additional model features can be added to increase realism. Perhaps the most important macroeconomic concept in the course is that of general equilibrium—students learn to go beyond examining initial …


50 Years Of Economic Instruction In The Journal Of Economic Education, Gail M. Hoyt, Kimmarie Mcgoldrick Jan 2019

50 Years Of Economic Instruction In The Journal Of Economic Education, Gail M. Hoyt, Kimmarie Mcgoldrick

Economics Faculty Publications

With 2019 marking the fiftieth year of publication of the Journal of Economic Education (JEE), it seems fitting to examine the evolution of economic instruction as portrayed in the Journal. Born of the American Economic Association (AEA), and first edited by members of the AEA’s Committee on Economic Education (Saunders 2012), it is not surprising that the Journal’s focus as chronicler, proponent, and outlet for economic education activity reflects the educational component of the American Economic Association’s mission. The creation of the Journal signaled a self-awareness in the discipline that we needed to be more deliberate in …


Teaching Courses In Macroeconomics And Monetary Policy With Bloomberg Analytics, Dean D. Croushore, Hossein S. Kazemi Jan 2019

Teaching Courses In Macroeconomics And Monetary Policy With Bloomberg Analytics, Dean D. Croushore, Hossein S. Kazemi

Economics Faculty Publications

In this article, the authors illustrate the use of Bloomberg for analyzing topics in macroeconomics and monetary policy in economics and finance courses. The hands-on experience that students gain from such a course has many benefits, including deeper learning and clearer understanding of data. The authors describe goals and learning objectives, then compare Bloomberg with Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). In addition, they provide examples of how to use Bloomberg in the classroom, describe how to have students perform sector analysis, show how Bloomberg tools are useful for analyzing monetary policy, discuss how to use Bloomberg to analyze the financial …


Currency Unions And Trade: A Ppml Re-Assessment With High-Dimensional Fixed Effects, Mario Larch, Joschka Wanner, Yoto V. Yotov, Thomas Zylkin Jan 2019

Currency Unions And Trade: A Ppml Re-Assessment With High-Dimensional Fixed Effects, Mario Larch, Joschka Wanner, Yoto V. Yotov, Thomas Zylkin

Economics Faculty Publications

Recent work on the effects of currency unions (CUs) on trade stresses the importance of using many countries and years in order to obtain reliable estimates. However, for large samples, computational issues associated with the three-way (exporter-time, importer-time, and country-pair) fixed effects currently recommended in the gravity literature have heretofore limited the choice of estimator, leaving an important methodological gap. To address this gap, we introduce an iterative Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation procedure that facilitates the inclusion of these fixed effects for large data sets and also allows for correlated errors across countries and time. When applied to a …


Antecedents To The Crisis: Mandeville, Smith, And Keynes, Jonathan B. Wight Jan 2019

Antecedents To The Crisis: Mandeville, Smith, And Keynes, Jonathan B. Wight

Economics Faculty Publications

The purpose of this paper is to present the methods of teaching about the global financial crisis (GFC) from a social economic perspective. Using primary texts from the history of economic thought, the moral underpinnings for collective social action are examined in times of economic depression. The deregulation of financial markets raises two questions: to what extent is deregulation the result of a misunderstanding about human nature and the behavioral lessons of social economics; and to what extend does deregulation ignore the moral lessons of Adam Smith’s invisible hand?


Fiscal Surprises At The Fomc, Dean D. Croushore, Simon Van Norden Jan 2019

Fiscal Surprises At The Fomc, Dean D. Croushore, Simon Van Norden

Economics Faculty Publications

We examine a new set of U.S. fiscal forecasts from FOMC briefing books. The forecasts were precisely those presented to monetary policymakers and include frequently updated estimates covering six complete business cycles and several fiscal-policy regimes. We detail the performance of forecast federal expenditures, revenues, surpluses, and structural surpluses in terms of accuracy, bias, and efficiency. We find that forecast errors can be economically large, even at relatively short forecast horizons. While economic activity became less volatile after 1990, fiscal policy became harder to forecast. Finally, cyclically adjusted deficit forecasts appear to be overoptimistic around both business cycle peaks and …


On The Widely Differing Effects Of Free Trade Agreements: Lessons From Twenty Years Of Trade Integration, Scott L. Baier, Yoto V. Yotov, Thomas Zylkin Jan 2019

On The Widely Differing Effects Of Free Trade Agreements: Lessons From Twenty Years Of Trade Integration, Scott L. Baier, Yoto V. Yotov, Thomas Zylkin

Economics Faculty Publications

We develop a novel two stage methodology that allows us to study the empirical determinants of the ex post effects of past free trade agreements (FTAs) as well as obtain ex ante predictions for the effects of future FTAs. We first identify 908 unique estimates of the effects of FTAs on different trading pairs for the years 1986-2006. We then employ these estimates as our dependent variable in a “second stage” analysis characterizing the heterogeneity in these effects. Interestingly, most of this heterogeneity (∼ 2/3) occurs within FTAs (rather than across different FTAs), with asymmetric effects within pairs (on exports …


The Role Of Teaching And Teacher Training In The Hiring And Promotion Of Ph.D. Economists, Sam Allgood, Gail Hoyt, Kimmarie Mcgoldrick Jan 2018

The Role Of Teaching And Teacher Training In The Hiring And Promotion Of Ph.D. Economists, Sam Allgood, Gail Hoyt, Kimmarie Mcgoldrick

Economics Faculty Publications

Surveys suggest that a majority of graduate students seek academic positions after completing their degree. We survey groups involved in the job market to determine the roles of teaching and research in hiring and the subsequent success of new faculty. We find that while characteristics that signal research potential are highly valued by both graduate directors and department chairs, there are significant discrepancies in the extent that teaching is valued in the hiring process across institution types. Furthermore, although new faculty devote half of their time to teaching, only half of them agree that graduate school prepared them to teach.


Fiscal Forecasts At The Fomc: Evidence From The Greenbooks, Dean D. Croushore, Simon Van Norden Jan 2018

Fiscal Forecasts At The Fomc: Evidence From The Greenbooks, Dean D. Croushore, Simon Van Norden

Economics Faculty Publications

This paper examines fiscal policy forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee and its influence on U.S. monetary policy. The forecasts contain useful information beyond that in the CBO’s forecasts. Fiscal forecast errors are only weakly correlated with forecast errors for inflation and output growth, but those for the budget surplus are highly correlated with those for the unemployment rate and the output gap. Some fiscal variables can also account for a significant fraction of the “exogenous” changes in the federal funds rate target that Romer and Romer (2004) studied, consistent with the board’s statements on the importance of …


Measuring Faculty Teaching Effectiveness Using Conditional Fixed Effects, Maia K. Linask, James Monks Jan 2018

Measuring Faculty Teaching Effectiveness Using Conditional Fixed Effects, Maia K. Linask, James Monks

Economics Faculty Publications

Using a dataset of 48 faculty members and 88 courses over 26 semesters, the authors estimate Student Evaluation of Teaching (SET) ratings that are conditional on a multitude of course, faculty, and student attributes. They find that ratings are lower for required courses and those where students report a lower prior level of interest. Controlling for these variables substantially alters the SET ratings for many instructors. The average absolute value of the difference between the faculty ratings controlling just for time effects and fully conditional ratings is nearly one-half of a standard deviation in the students’ rating of how much …


Teacher Training For Phd Students And New Faculty In Economics, Sam Allgood, Gail Hoyt, Kimmarie Mcgoldrick Jan 2018

Teacher Training For Phd Students And New Faculty In Economics, Sam Allgood, Gail Hoyt, Kimmarie Mcgoldrick

Economics Faculty Publications

Past studies suggest that a majority of economics graduate students engage in teaching-related activities during graduate school and many go on to academic positions afterwards. However, not all graduate students are formally prepared to teach while in graduate school nor are they fully prepared to teach in their first academic position. The authors characterize current teaching experience and training of graduate students from the point of view of directors of graduate studies and of newly minted academic economists. The authors also query department chairs and new faculty about teacher training, support available for new faculty, and the degree to which …


The Gender Gap In Economics Degrees: An Investigation Of The Role Model And Quantitative Requirement Hypotheses, Tisha L. N. Emerson, Kimmarie Mcgoldrick, John J. Siegfried Jan 2018

The Gender Gap In Economics Degrees: An Investigation Of The Role Model And Quantitative Requirement Hypotheses, Tisha L. N. Emerson, Kimmarie Mcgoldrick, John J. Siegfried

Economics Faculty Publications

Using a panel of 159 institutions over 10 years, we investigate the role model effect of women faculty and quantitative requirements on the female proportion of undergraduate economics majors. We find no evidence that female faculty attract female students. Calculus, however, does matter. A one semester calculus requirement is associated with more female majors at institutions offering business degrees and liberal arts colleges. A second semester calculus requirement deters women from majoring in economics at Ph.D.–granting universities, but is associated with more female majors at liberal arts colleges. Econometrics requirements are unrelated to the gender gap in economics majors.


The High Costs Of Large Enrollment Classes: Can Cooperative Learning Help?, Tisha L. N. Emerson, Linda K. English, Kimmarie Mcgoldrick Jan 2018

The High Costs Of Large Enrollment Classes: Can Cooperative Learning Help?, Tisha L. N. Emerson, Linda K. English, Kimmarie Mcgoldrick

Economics Faculty Publications

We examine the potential for cooperative learning activities to offset costs of large enrollment courses. We use a quasi-experimental research design to examine achievement and course perceptions in small and large enrollment sections of microeconomic principles. While large enrollment sections attain lower levels of achievement (measured by course score) than those with smaller enrollments, this effect is partially mitigated by use of cooperative learning. Furthermore, while students in large enrollment sections report lower levels of satisfaction and learning than students in smaller sized classes, the use of cooperative learning eliminates the negative effects of increased class size on student perceptions.


Bicycle Infrastructure And Traffic Congestion: Evidence From Dc's Capital Bikeshare, Timothy L. Hamilton, Casey J. Wichman Jan 2018

Bicycle Infrastructure And Traffic Congestion: Evidence From Dc's Capital Bikeshare, Timothy L. Hamilton, Casey J. Wichman

Economics Faculty Publications

This study explores the impact of bicycle-sharing infrastructure on urban transportation. We estimate a causal effect of the Capital Bikeshare on traffic congestion in the metropolitan Washington, D.C., area. We exploit a unique traffic dataset that is finely defined on a spatial and temporal scale. Our approach examines within-city commuting decisions as opposed to traffic patterns on major thruways. Empirical results suggest that the availability of a bikeshare reduces traffic congestion upwards of 4% within a neighborhood. In addition, we estimate heterogeneous treatment effects using panel quantile regression. Results indicate that the congestion-reducing impact of bikeshares is concentrated in highly …


The Ethics Behind Efficiency, Jonathan B. Wight Jan 2017

The Ethics Behind Efficiency, Jonathan B. Wight

Economics Faculty Publications

The normative elements underlying efficiency are more complex than generally portrayed, and rely upon ethical frameworks that are generally absent from classroom discussions. most textbooks, for example, ignore the ethical differences between Paretto efficiency (based on voluntary win-win outcomes) and the modern Kaldor-Hicks efficiency used in public policy assessments (in which winners gain more than losers lose). For the latter to be ethically palatable, society must have in place basic institutions of justice, transparency, and accountability. Normative economics thus requires a pluralist approach that includes considerations of virtue and duty, closer to Adam Smith's Enlightenment conceptions. This surprising finding should …


The Ethics Behind Efficiency, Jonathan B. Wight Dec 2016

The Ethics Behind Efficiency, Jonathan B. Wight

Economics Faculty Publications

The normative elements underlying efficiency are more complex than generally portrayed, and rely upon ethical frameworks that are generally absent from classroom discussions. Most textbooks, for example, ignore the ethical differences between Pareto efficiency (based on voluntary win-win outcomes) and the modern Kaldor-Hicks efficiency used in public policy assessments (in which winners gain more than losers lose). For the latter to be ethically palatable, society must have in place basic institutions of justice, transparency, and accountability. Normative economics thus requires a pluralist approach that includes considerations of virtue and duty, closer to Adam Smith’s Enlightenment conceptions. This surprising finding should …


Could Tariffs Be Pro-Cyclical?, James Lake, Maia K. Linask Jan 2016

Could Tariffs Be Pro-Cyclical?, James Lake, Maia K. Linask

Economics Faculty Publications

Conventional wisdom says that tariffs are counter-cyclical. We analyze the relationship between business cycles and applied MFN tariffs using a disaggregated product-level panel dataset covering 72 countries between 2000 and 2011. Strikingly, and counter to conventional wisdom, we find that tariffs are pro-cyclical. Further investigation reveals that this pro-cyclicality is driven by the tariff setting behavior of developing countries; tariffs are acyclical in developed countries. We present evidence that pro-cyclical market power drives the pro-cyclicality of tariffs in developing countries, providing further evidence of the importance of terms of trade motivations in explaining trade policy.


Domestic Political Competition And Pro-Cyclical Import Protection, James Lake, Maia K. Linask Jan 2016

Domestic Political Competition And Pro-Cyclical Import Protection, James Lake, Maia K. Linask

Economics Faculty Publications

Governments, especially in developing countries, routinely practice binding overhang (i.e. setting applied tariffs below binding WTO commitments) and frequently move applied tariffs for given products up and down over the business cycle. Moreover, applied tariffs are pro-cyclical in developing countries. We explain this phenomenon using a dynamic theory of lobbying between domestic interest groups. Applied tariffs are pro-cyclical when high-tariff interests (e.g. import-competing industries) capture the government: these groups concede lower tariffs to low-tariff interest groups (e.g. exporting firms or firms using imported intermediate inputs) during recessions because recessions lower the opportunity cost of lobbying and thereby generate a stronger …


I'M Retiring ... Well, Sort Of, Kevin F. Hallock Feb 2015

I'M Retiring ... Well, Sort Of, Kevin F. Hallock

Economics Faculty Publications

I’m 45 years old and I’m retiring ... from writing regular columns for workspan. And that has me thinking about retirement and incentives as part of a total rewards system.


Costly Distribution And The Non-Equivalence Of Tariffs And Quotas, James Lake, Maia K. Linask Jan 2015

Costly Distribution And The Non-Equivalence Of Tariffs And Quotas, James Lake, Maia K. Linask

Economics Faculty Publications

When governments impose a quota or tariff on imports, it is well known that the resulting rents and revenues trigger costly rent-seeking and revenue-seeking activities, which are welfare-reducing and may be economically more significant than the efficiency losses resulting from the protectionist-induced resource misallocation. Repeated interaction among firms can eliminate wasteful rent- and revenue-seeking expenditures through cooperation. We show that while aggregate outcomes are equivalent under tariffs and quotas if cooperation arises, the conditions under which cooperation arises differ by policy. This difference arises because a firm must incur additional cost to physically import and distribute the goods associated with …


Quotas On Boards And The Gender Gap, Kevin F. Hallock Jan 2015

Quotas On Boards And The Gender Gap, Kevin F. Hallock

Economics Faculty Publications

Back in the late 1990s, Marianne Bertrand and the author examined the pay gap between male and female executives listed in the proxy statements of publicly traded US firms from 1992 in 1997, which they later published in the October 2011 edition of Industrial and Labor Relations Review. They found that, taken as a whole, women in these top five positions earned about 45% less than men in these positions. At the same time, they found that as much as 75% of this gap could be explained by the fact that women managed smaller companies, and were less likely to …


Sabbaticals, Kevin F. Hallock Dec 2014

Sabbaticals, Kevin F. Hallock

Economics Faculty Publications

With the year end upon you and many workplaces closing, reducing hours or accommodating employee vacations because of the holidays, this column focuses on rewards in the form of time away from work that is not so common -- sabbaticals. Sabbaticals are a generous benefit to those workers who have them. And they can clearly be an important part of a total rewards package. According to inc.com, while 5% of firms in the US offer sabbaticals, 25% of the companies listed in "Best Companies to Work For" offer them. Corporate sabbaticals, however, aren't typically as generous in length as those …


Retention Pay, Kevin F. Hallock Nov 2014

Retention Pay, Kevin F. Hallock

Economics Faculty Publications

In many seasonal jobs, such as store clerks during the holiday shopping season, retention is about employers wanting as little employee turnover as possible during the small window they have each year to earn a big part of their profits. One way seasonal businesses might persuade workers to stay is with some sort of cash bonus paid for staying until the season's end or by paying a substantially higher wage at the very end. While the summer beach of Cape Cod may feel worlds away from the corporate office, the need to consider retention strategies for key employees is universal. …


Paid Workers And Volunteers, Side By Side, Kevin F. Hallock Oct 2014

Paid Workers And Volunteers, Side By Side, Kevin F. Hallock

Economics Faculty Publications

Millions of Americans volunteer annually and, on average, volunteers are highly skilled individuals. With unpaid volunteers working alongside W2-paid employees, sometimes it is difficult in a workplace to distinguish one from the other. Motivations for volunteering are many and the author does not intend to fully explore the myriad reasons identified by social scientists for this behavior, including to gain experience, create a path to a paid job, offer service to others or gain personal recognition. An interesting study of volunteerism is Richard Freeman's Working for Nothing: The Supply of Volunteer Labor. Using data from a unique survey, Freeman showed …


Pay, Corporate Location And Donations To Charity, Kevin F. Hallock Sep 2014

Pay, Corporate Location And Donations To Charity, Kevin F. Hallock

Economics Faculty Publications

State and local governments direct a great deal of effort (and resources) toward incenting companies to locate in their particular jurisdictions. The cited reasons for this effort are often the increase in jobs and boost to the local tax base. In "The Geography of Giving: The Effect of Corporate Headquarters on Local Charities", David Card, Enrico Moretti and the author investigated a number of issues related to the geographical location of corporate headquarters and charitable giving. It turns out that location does matter and the movement of highly paid employees does, too. There are at least two main channels through …