Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

What Do Price Equations Say About Future Inflation?, Ray C. Fair

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper uses an econometric approach to examine the inflation consequences of the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021. Price equations are estimated and used to forecast future inflation. The main results are: 1) The data suggest that price equations should be specified in level form rather than in first or second difference form. 2) There is some slight evidence of nonlinear demand effects on prices. 3) There is no evidence that demand effects have gotten smaller over time. 4) The stimulus from the act combined with large wealth effects from past household savings, rising stock prices, and rising housing …

Climate Club Futures: On The Effectiveness Of Future Climate Clubs, William D. Nordhaus

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A proposal to combat free-riding in international climate agreements is the notion of a “climate club” or coalition of countries to encourage high levels of participation. Empirical models of climate clubs in the early stages relied on the analysis of single-period coalition formation. The results suggested that there were limits on the potential strength of clubs and that it would be difficult to have deep abatement strategies in the club framework. The current work extends the single-period approach to many periods and develops an approach analyzing “supportable policies” to analyze multi-period clubs. The major surprise of the study is the …

Prospective Development Of Women's Pilagnic Tourism In Uzbekistan, Feruza Farmonovna Saidkulova, Mokhichekhra Abdukholikovna Rajabova

Scientific reports of Bukhara State University

Introduction. Diversification of tourism products and services aimed at various segments of the country's tourism market, further increasing their competitiveness, creating a favorable and convenient domestic and international tourism environment, expanding transport routes, improving the quality of transport services, promoting tourism products, as well as a number of decisions were made aimed at strengthening its image as a safe place to receive. A list of countries has been compiled that from January 1, 2020, will introduce a 30-day visa-free regime for their citizens. A working group has been created to study the state of roads and roadside infrastructure along the …

Monoeconomic Model Of Poverty Reduction, Bakhtiyor Navruz-Zoda

Scientific reports of Bukhara State University

Introduction. The article discusses the issue of poverty eradication based on the dual nature of people's economic abilities: labor and entrepreneurship, ways to increase the welfare of citizens through commercialization. Research methods. The article analyzes the term "poverty" in a monographic way, using the content analysis method to determine the implementation of poverty at the level of "7-M", the qualitative levels of human economic development as a result of systematic analysis, quantitative assessment of human economic development using logical analysis, A comparative analysis of people's living standards was conducted using the Ability \ Income Proportionality Matrix method. Results and discussion. …

The Conditional Mode Estimator Of Technical Efficiency: Theory And Application To Nyc Public Schools, Yi Yang

Dissertations - ALL

This dissertation studies the properties of the conditional mode estimator of stochastic frontier models and applies it to measure technical inefficiency. It consists of two chapters. The first chapter analyzes the conditional mode estimator's closed-form expressions, convergence, near-minimax optimality when interpreted using Lasso, and selection rules. The second chapter applies the true fixed effect stochastic frontier model (Greene, 2005a,b) to analyze the persistent and transient technical inefficiencies of 425 NYC public middle schools for cohorts of students that graduated between 2014 to 2016.

The Political Economy Of Preferential Trade Agreements, Ross Castner Jestrab

Dissertations - ALL

This dissertation is comprised of three chapters on preferential trade agreements (PTAs). The first two chapters examine why countries sign PTAs with other countries, while the final chapter studies the effect of PTAs on imports.

The first chapter provides direct empirical evidence that PTAs are consistent with the terms-of-trade theory. In other words, PTAs internalize the temptation to increase tariffs when countries possess importer market power. Using PTAs that occur between 2001-2015, I study the formation of PTAs and the structure of first year PTA tariff cuts. I first show the likelihood of a PTA increases when both countries have …

Three Essays On The Housing Market, Tianyun Zhu

Dissertations - ALL

My dissertation comprises three essays on the housing market. The first two chapters analyze the housing market using the hedonic model. Chapter 1 estimates a semi-nonparametric hedonic regression that provides evidence for the change of bidding and sorting for job-access over time in Buffalo MSA. Based on the estimation result, a decomposition of the price change is implemented to shed light on how bidding and sorting contribute to the price change of a house with different job access respectively. Chapter 2 proposes an alternative approach which yields a likelihood-based estimator for implicit price elasticity of amenity demand. An application of …

Essays On Population And Housing Market In South Korea, Dahae Choo

Dissertations - ALL

This dissertation studies important social topics in South Korea. The first two chapters evaluate the effects of a pronatalist policy introduced by local governments in South Korea, a country with one of the lowest fertility rates worldwide. In the first chapter, possible selection into marriage is highlighted considering the low out-of-wedlock births in the country. Also, the policy effects are examined in two different dimensions: changes in the probability of having a child and the time-to-child delivery. The second chapter estimates two important key variables to address the effectiveness of this program. First is the unconditional distribution of the reservation …

The Need For Economic Diversification In The Oil-Dependent Nations Of Saudi Arabia, Uae, And Nigeria: Possible Pathways And Outcomes, Alia Alzubair

Senior Theses

Economic diversification is seen as a key to the political and economic survival of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Nigeria. Each nation is currently considered an oil-dependent country, meaning that the bulk of its income comes from oil. Since oil will soon be depleted and other countries are moving toward green technology, the demand for oil is expected to continue to drop. Hence, the need for diversification. This paper conducts a comparison of the key policies each country is attempting to implement to produce a diversified economy. The paper concludes that various factors will prevent each country from successfully diversifying …

Essays On Population And Housing Market In South Korea, Dahae Choo

Dissertations - ALL

This dissertation studies important social topics in South Korea. The first two chapters evaluate the effects of a pronatalist policy introduced by local governments in South Korea, a country with one of the lowest fertility rates worldwide. In the first chapter, possible selection into marriage is highlighted considering the low out-of-wedlock births in the country. Also, the policy effects are examined in two different dimensions: changes in the probability of having a child and the time-to-child delivery. The second chapter estimates two important key variables to address the effectiveness of this program. First is the unconditional distribution of the reservation …

The Political Economy Of Preferential Trade Agreements, Ross Castner Jestrab

Dissertations - ALL

This dissertation is comprised of three chapters on preferential trade agreements (PTAs). The first two chapters examine why countries sign PTAs with other countries, while the final chapter studies the effect of PTAs on imports.

The first chapter provides direct empirical evidence that PTAs are consistent with the terms-of-trade theory. In other words, PTAs internalize the temptation to increase tariffs when countries possess importer market power. Using PTAs that occur between 2001-2015, I study the formation of PTAs and the structure of first year PTA tariff cuts. I first show the likelihood of a PTA increases when both countries have …

The Conditional Mode Estimator Of Technical Efficiency: Theory And Application To Nyc Public Schools, Yi Yang

Dissertations - ALL

This dissertation studies the properties of the conditional mode estimator of stochastic frontier models and applies it to measure technical inefficiency. It consists of two chapters. The first chapter analyzes the conditional mode estimator’s closed-form expressions, convergence, near-minimax optimality when interpreted using Lasso, and selection rules. The second chapter applies the true fixed effect stochastic frontier model (Greene, 2005a,b) to analyze the persistent and transient technical inefficiencies of 425 NYC public middle schools for cohorts of students that graduated between 2014 to 2016.

Three Essays On The Housing Market, Tianyun Zhu

Dissertations - ALL

My dissertation comprises three essays on the housing market. The first two chapters analyze the housing market using the hedonic model. Chapter 1 estimates a semi-nonparametric hedonic regression that provides evidence for the change of bidding and sorting for job-access over time in Buffalo MSA. Based on the estimation result, a decomposition of the price change is implemented to shed light on how bidding and sorting contribute to the price change of a house with different job access respectively. Chapter 2 proposes an alternative approach which yields a likelihood-based estimator for implicit price elasticity of amenity demand. An application of …

Neo-Extracting Gilded Welfare States: A Comparative Study Of Extractivism And Latin American Welfare State Formation, Pabvitraa Ramcharan

Student Theses and Dissertations

This paper attempts to establish a stronger linkage between neo-extractivism and social welfare states in contemporary Latin America using both a micro and macro perspective. By emphasizing the human capital aspect of the welfare state’s role in promoting equitable redistribution and correcting market failures, this paper attempts to evaluate the extent to which extractive industries contribute to human capital formation. Due to the sectors’ large influence on the state and weak capacity to create employment, I develop the concept of the “gilded welfare state,” defined by the inability of extractive industries to ensure equal opportunity and generate formal employment despite …

Budgetary Obstacles To Police Reform: The Case Of San Francisco, Hayden Anderson

Master's Projects and Capstones

In response to the murder of George Floyd in May 2020, the Black Lives Matter movement issued a statement calling on cities to Defund the Police. The event sparked a nationwide reckoning that has reshaped the narratives and strategies for remedying the racial bias and police brutality apparent in the criminal justice system. The shift in police reform efforts embraces notions guiding police budgeting decisions. Today's advocates are transforming their approach to police reform to include budgeting decisions by promoting a municipal practice known as police budget reform. This Capstone explores the feasibility of successful police budget reform under current …

Affordable Housing In San Francisco: A Historical Analysis Of Its Finances And Policies, Ricky H. Tran

Master's Projects and Capstones

The affordable housing crisis is not new to San Francisco. As it has been made clear several times, The Bay Area continues to face a crisis of a massive wealth disparity as housing prices continue to rise as incomes for the top earners have risen dramatically since 1999. In San Francisco, rents and housing prices are one of the highest in the nation, and people are facing rent burdens, in which a large portion of their income goes to rent, as for those with low and extremely low income are facing severe rent burdens, which take up more than 50% …

The Health Costs Of Political Identity: Evidence From Public Safety Responses In The Us And A Natural Experiment In California, Sahiba Chopra

Master's Theses

The Covid-19 pandemic has brought political polarization in the US to the forefront of the battle against coronavirus. We find that for every one percentage point increase in votes for Trump there are 881 more Covid-19 cases and 17 more Covid-19 deaths. We find that these results are motivated by political identity as it is mediated through public safety behaviors like maskwearing and social distancing. In addition, a natural experiment in California during the first half of the pandemic in the US finds that 36% of the Covid-19 cases at the census tract level in California can be associated with …

The Role Of Learning Styles In The Uptake Of Index Insurance: Evidence From Kenya, Yibekal Abebe Tessema, Andrew Hobbs, Nathaniel Jensen

Master's Theses

Index insurance has a huge potential to increase the income of households in developing countries by shielding them against various shocks and by facilitating technology adoption. Despite this theoretical promise, however, the uptake of insurance has turned out to be disappointingly low. One of the key barriers in the adoption of this financial technology has been learning difficulty. Index insurance can be considered a relatively complex product especially in the context of low financial literacy in developing countries. Despite the relevance of learning in the diffusion of the product, however, previous studies on the subject have been quite limited. This …

Transitioning Into Retirement: Effect Of Pension Expansion On Elderly Labor Force Participation In India, Devaprasad Sahadevan

Master's Theses

The welfare effects of public social security programs have been extensively studied in the context of developing economies where the reliance on state is much larger for the provision of basic goods and services. Pension schemes and reforms, however, are met with much less fiscal investment considering the demographic composition and the requisite demands of the larger proportion of youth- and working age- population. Given the rapid pace of demographic transition, there will inevitably be an ever-growing pressure and economic problems associated with aging are bound to become more apparent. As transitioning into retirement is an under-studied area in countries …

Police Union Membership And Lethal Use Of Force, Scott Barger

Master's Theses

I examine the Fraternal Order of Police union presence in cities as an explanation for the lethal use of violence. Using a novel dataset of FOP union presence, I utilize a simple log OLS linear model to explore the relationships between FOP unions and lethal use of force. I find robust evidence that FOP unions have higher incidences of death at the hands of police, compared to cities without a FOP union. Exposure to FOP leads to an increase in baseline risk of death by police by 17%. This effect increases for larger cities.

Temperature Effects On Prevalence Of Sexually Transmitted Infections Among At-Risk Female Sex Workers In India, Rajshri Suresh

Master's Theses

Vulnerability to climate change varies depending on the baseline climate, sensitivity to given exposure, and the presence of social, political, cultural, and institutional inequalities that influence access to essential resources of livelihood, particularly among informal labor market participants. Within the risky informal labor market, the transient nature of sex work implies that sex workers suffer disproportional losses in health, income, protection, and other aspects of general well-being as a result of the effects of climate anomalies. In this paper, I investigate the effect of temperature on the prevalence of sexually transmitted infections in a high-risk population of female sex workers …

Does Prize Sharing Close The Gender-Based Gap Of Competition In Nepal?, Supriya Adhikari

Master's Theses

Past research has shown that even when women perform
equally as men, they are less competitive when cash is provided as
incentive. Using the experimental design of Cassar and Rigdon
(2021), where in a real effort tournament a social incentive
motivates women to compete more and closes the gender gap in
competitiveness, we examine if this will be found in a Nepal
sample. Following the evolutionary literature that suggests women
need each other’s support for child care, participants are given an
option to share the prize they win to help them earn friendships and
bonds in a competitive game. Our …

Informed Choices: Gender Gaps In Career Advice, Yana Gallen, Melanie Wasserman

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Do Letters And Gifts From International Sponsors Affect Child Outcomes? Evidence From Colombia, Ghana, And Haiti, Mai Moua

Master's Theses

Past research has found child sponsorship results in higher aspirations, mental health, and educational outcomes. In this research, I explore the extent to which these outcomes can be influenced by letters and gifts sent from the sponsor to the child. However, there is limited research on the effects of direct relationship between sponsor and child. Using 1142 sponsor letters and a 2017 survey from Compassion International, an international child sponsorship organization, we find that letters and gifts from sponsors have a statistically insignificant impact on outcomes including education, mental health, aspirations, social connectedness, nutrition, religiosity, hygiene, and views on drugs, …

The Effect Of State Level Covid-19 Stay-At-Home Orders On Death Rates, Stephen A. Langeland, Jose Marte, Kyle Connif

Helm's School of Government Conference - 2021-2024

This paper attempts to examine a correlation between lockdown length and COVID-19 case rate, death rate and fatality rate. In March of 2020, the publishing of alarmist epidemiological models prompted government officials to enact sweeping emergency measures (Miltimore 2020). Notably, the Imperial College London model published by epidemiologist Neil Ferguson predicted a “best-case scenario” of 1.1 million COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by August 2020. This model heightened concern that the hospital system would be overwhelmed, a reason cited by President Trump’s Coronavirus Task Force members, Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci, as justification for the “15 Days to Flatten the …

Heterogeneity And Aggregate Fluctuations, Minsu Chang, Xiaohong Chen, Frank Schorfheide

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We develop a state-space model with a state-transition equation that takes the form of a functional vector autoregression and stacks macroeconomic aggregates and a cross-sectional density. The measurement equation captures the error in estimating log densities from repeated cross-sectional samples. The log densities and the transition kernels in the law of motion of the states are approximated by sieves, which leads to a nite-dimensional representation in terms of macroeconomic aggregates and sieve coefficients. We use this model to study the joint dynamics of technology shocks, per capita GDP, employment rates, and the earnings distribution. We nd that the estimated spillovers …

Cost Estimation Alongside A Multi-Regional, Multi-Country Randomized Trial Of Antenatal Ultrasound In Five Low-And-Middle-Income Countries, B W. Bresnahan, E Vodicka, J B. Babigumira, Ashar Muhammad Malik, F Yego, A Lokangaka, B M. Chitah, Z Bauer, H Chavez, Sarah Saleem

Community Health Sciences

Background: Improving maternal health has been a primary goal of international health agencies for many years, with the aim of reducing maternal and child deaths and improving access to antenatal care (ANC) services, particularly in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs). Health interventions with these aims have received more attention from a clinical effectiveness perspective than for cost impact and economic efficiency.
Methods: We collected data on resource use and costs as part of a large, multi-country study assessing the use of routine antenatal screening ultrasound (US) with the aim of considering the implications for economic efficiency. We assessed typical antenatal outpatient and …

Carolina African Runner Peanuts: Connecting African And Alabamian Agricultural History, Abby West, Gary Padgett, Matthew D. Campbell

The Councilor: A National Journal of the Social Studies

Social Studies has the potential to impact STEAM education in unrealized ways. It can have this impact by being meaningful, integrative, value-based, challenging, and active. This article examines teaching about Carolina African Runner peanuts and the history of Alabama’s agriculture. The introduction of peanuts to Alabama and the enslavement of African people cannot be removed from a lesson such as this – nor should it. It is through value-based education that social studies contributes the most to STEM and STEAM lessons. This article is significant in that it demonstrates a history lesson that is active rather than passive. This article …

Inquiry: Tragic Journeys Of Enslaved African People Exposed Through Shipwreck Archaeology, Janie Hubbard

The Councilor: A National Journal of the Social Studies

This article describes an inquiry lesson, recommended for upper elementary and middle level students. One primary aim of the lesson is to explore shipwreck archeology to focus on the overseas journeys of enslaved African people during the transatlantic slave trade. A second aim is for students to recognize how the slave trade’s exploiters caused sustained damage to the principles of Black equality, producing systemic racism for centuries and into contemporary times. In this lesson, students inquire and discover nuanced information about the historic slave trade by studying clues from sunken slave ships. Students begin by closely observing artifacts found in …

The Wild Side Of Commodity Markets: Hedging In Times Of High Volatility, Fabio Mattos

Cornhusker Economics

Commodity markets go through periods with low volatility when we generally see small variations in prices, as well as periods with high volatility, when we tend to see large swings in prices. Regardless of the degree of price volatility in the market, producers can always use marketing contracts as a way to hedge the price risk of their operation. Even though the general mechanics of hedging are the same in periods of low volatility and high volatility, some aspects of hedging become more evident in times of high volatility. In this article, we will discuss some of these aspects focusing …