Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Opportunity Zones: A Program In Search Of A Purpose, Ofer Eldar, Chelsea Garber

Faculty Scholarship

In 2017, Congress created the Opportunity Zone (“OZ”) program to stimulate economic growth in low-income communities. The program was characterized by its unprecedented scale relative to previous place-based development efforts and was described as “perhaps the most ambitious economic development tool to come out of Congress in a generation.” However, the program was quickly criticized on numerous grounds, and its design flaws are so severe that several legislators have called for its reform or repeal.

This Essay argues that the root of the OZ program’s problems is a strong mismatch between its stated purpose and its actual terms. We discuss …

Learning Before Testing: A Selective Nonparametric Test For Conditional Moment Restrictions, Jia Li, Zhipeng Liao, Wenyu Zhou

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops a new test for conditional moment restrictions via nonparametric series regression, with approximating series terms selected by Lasso. Machine-learning the main features of the unknown conditional expectation function beforehand enables the test to seek power in a targeted fashion. The data-driven selection, however, also tends to distort the test’s size nontrivially, because it restricts the (growing-dimensional) score vector in the series regression on a random polytope, and hence, effectively alters the score’s asymptotic normality. A novel critical value is proposed to account for this truncation effect. We establish the size and local power properties of the proposed …

Climate Change And Sustainability In Asean Countries, David K. Ding, Sarah E. Beh

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The ASEAN region is one of the most susceptible regions to climate change, with three of its countries—Myanmar, the Philippines, and Thailand—among those that have suffered the greatest fatalities and economic losses because of climate-related disasters. This paper reveals that the ASEAN’s environmental performance is sorely lagging other regions despite evidence of its cohesive and comprehensive efforts to mitigate emissions and build up adaptive capacity to climate-related disasters. Within the ASEAN, there exist gaps in environmental performance between each country. This suggests that increased cooperation between individual ASEAN countries is pertinent for the region to collectively combat climate change. In …

Chinese Neoglobalization In East Africa: Logics, Couplings And Impacts, Pádraig R. Carmody, James T. Murphy

Geography

The most significant case of transnational state capitalism today is China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which seeks to expand/extend the country's geoeconomic and geopolitical integrations globally. We conceptualise the BRI as manifest principally through industrial offshoring, infrastructure investments and exports from China. These vectors articulate with particular places, forming transnational couplings that shape development outcomes. We examine the BRI's couplings and their development implications in the East African countries of Djibouti, Ethiopia and Kenya where China has engaged significantly. We demonstrate the contingent manner of BRI's variegations; its pragmatism, flexibility, and limitations as a hegemonic or developmental project.

Jue Insight: Migration, Transportation Infrastructure, And The Spatial Transmission Of Covid-19 In China, Bingjing Li, Lin Ma

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper evaluates the impacts of migration flows and transportation infrastructure on the spatial transmission of COVID-19 in China. Prefectures with larger bilateral migration flows and shorter travel distances with Hubei, the epicenter of the outbreak, experienced a wider spread of COVID-19. In addition, richer prefectures with higher incomes were better able to contain the virus at the early stages of community transmission. Using a spatial general equilibrium model, we show that around 28% of the infections outside Hubei province can be explained by the rapid development in transportation infrastructure and the liberalization of migration restrictions in the recent decade.

Mechanism Design By Observant And Informed Planners, Shurojit Chatterji, Arunava Sen

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the mechanism design problem where the planner can observe ex-post the first-ranked alternatives or peaks of voter preferences. We contrast this with the design problem where the planner has ex-ante information regarding the peaks of voter preferences.

The Impact Of Covid-19 On Stock Market And Exchange Rate Uncertainty In Pakistan, Ateeb Akhter Shah Syed, Kaneez Fatima, Mannan Zaheer

Business Review

This paper examines the impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) on exchange rate (EXU) and stock market uncertainty (SMU) in Pakistan while controlling for the effects of interest rate and policy interventions by the Government and the Central bank to combat the pandemic. We employ the vector autoregressive (VAR) model over a sample period ranging from February 25, 2020 to May 6, 2021. We find that a shock to total daily coronavirus cases in Pakistan has a positive and significant impact on both the EXU and SMU. However, this impact is short-lived which may be attributed to a timely policy response and …

The Macroeconomic Impacts Of Government Debt In Pakistan, Ateeb Akhter Shah Syed, Kaneez Fatima, Junaid Kamal

Business Review

This paper examines the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis for Pakistan using a vector error-correction model. The sample period extends from June 2002 to January 2020. The results are reported using variance decompositions and impulse response functions. The base model contains six variables and is estimated with 4 lags. We find support for the idea that wealth does not increase as government debt increases; Hence, it proves the fact that economic agents are rational actors and foresee current expansionary actions of the government that result in accumulation of debt as the present value of future taxation that they have to pay and …

Taxation Of Agricultural Incomes In Pakistan: Conceptual Issues, Data Challenges And Empirical Estimates, Abdul Salam

Business Review

There is considerable diversity and variation in the land-based and agricultural income tax rates across the provinces in Pakistan. The annual land-based tax revenues from the cultivated land, including orchards, are estimated at Rs. 5 billion in Punjab, 2.5 billion in Sindh, one billion in KP, and less than half a billion in Baluchistan. Based on the 2017-18 GDP estimates from crops, two sets of income tax revenues were estimated: one at the provincial rates and the other at the FBR tax rates for non-salaried persons. Tax revenues from crop income, at the current provincial rates, work out to Rs. …

The Socio-Economic Factors Of Poverty: Empirical Evidence From District Lasbela, Balochistan, Fida Muhammad, Parvez Ahmed Shaikh, Hazrat Yousaf

Business Review

Poverty is defined as a lack of basic necessities for survival. The current study examines the socio-economic factors that contribute to poverty in five of the district of Lasbela's nine tehsils, namely (Bela, Dureji, Hub, Sonmiani, and Uthal. Lasbela is Balochistan's tenth most deprived district, located near Karachi. The data for this study is cross-sectional and contributed from the project's 2014 Base Line Survey (BLS, 2014). The Logit model was used to evaluate the variables under study in order to achieve the study goal. According to our empirical findings, the average daily income in this district was less than $1.50. …

Empirical Evidences On Pricing Mechanism In Pakistan: A Duration Analysis, Fauzia Sohail, Ambreen Fatima

Business Review

This study evaluates the price setting behavior across main cities of Pakistan by employing the micro data from retail price survey. The most contemporary research technique of Duration Analysis is employed where survivor functions are estimated by most illustrious nonparametric Kaplan-Meier and Nelson-Aalen Estimators. Hazard Functions for various product groups are also estimated by employing parametric Weibull Hazard Model. Results confirm that perishable food items have shortest duration of one week for most of the spells, where government regulation caused prices to change more frequently. It is found that on average small cities faced lower hazard and thus comparably lesser …

Carbon Emissions, Abatement, And Natural Disasters: Politics And Social Institutions, Ritika Khurana

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

This dissertation empirically examines three issues related to renewable energy and international development: 1) The Political Economy of Solar Initiatives in the Sunshine State; 2) Climate Change, Natural disasters, and Institutional Integrity; and 3) Institutional Integrity and Carbon emissions.

In Chapter 2, I empirically examine the outcomes of two solar energy amendments that were on the ballot in Florida in 2016. One amendment exempts solar energy devices from ad valorem taxation of real estate property, effectively decreasing the cost of solar energy for those who adopt solar photovoltaic panels. The other amendment reaffirms the right of property owners to install …

The U.S. Coal Industry: Market Structure & Implications, Sara Elizabeth Guffey

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

The U.S. coal mining industry was once a booming industry which created and defined communities, particularly in Appalachia. The industry has, however, transformed significantly in the last couple of decades with the passage of environmental policies, with competition from the Shale Revolution, from changes in company ownership, and from mine safety regulation. Overall, the coal industry during this time has experienced a massive decline in production and employment. This dissertation is composed of three papers that investigate these mechanisms and their role in understanding market structure, coal transactions and prices, and mine safety outcomes. Motivated by the shutdowns of U.S. …

Modeling Post-Crisis Monetary Policy, James Dean

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

Chapter 1, co-authored with Scott Schuh, examines whether the Taylor Rule still adequately captures monetary policy despite unconventional monetary policies (UMP) and the policy rate near zero in 2009-2015. We find structural breaks at 2007:Q3 in macro models with a shadow funds rate. Taylor Rule coefficients shift back toward pre-1984 estimates and breaks occurred in non-policy parameters. Results are similar with the effective funds rate, so either breaks are not due to UMP or the shadow rate is an insufficient specification of UMP. Chapter 2 incorporates the term structure and the Fed’s average inflation targeting (AIT) framework into the model …

Three Essays In Public Economics, Joylynn Michelle Pruitt

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

This dissertation presents three chapters related to each other in their application to public economics. In the study of how utility-maximizing or goal-seeking units achieve economic outcomes, this dissertation presents results for a diverse range of agents including prosecutors and liberal arts colleges. Co-authored with Dr. Bryan McCannon of West Virginia University, the first chapter examines an interesting feature of prosecutor elections, where the pool of potential challengers to an incumbent comes primarily from subordinates within the office. We develop a signaling model that analyzes whether entry into the political race by a subordinate provides voters with useful information. In …

Essays In Urban And Health Economics, Allyssa Ann Wadsworth

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

Chapter 1 analyzes the impact new hospital construction has on neighboring residential real estate prices. In 2017, the Oishei Children’s Hospital was built in downtown Buffalo, New York, representing a new era for women and children’s medical facilities. Individuals working at the old facility now faced the decision of whether to move closer to the new hospital or have a longer commute. Using property sales data, I analyze how Oishei impacts residential property prices with a difference-in-differences hedonic price model while utilizing three unique time treatments and two distance treatments. The opening of Oishei generated a statistically significant percentage increase …

Strength In Numbers: A Field Experiment In Gender, Influence, And Group Dynamics, Olga B. Stoddard, Christopher F. Karpowitz, Jessica Preece

Faculty Publications

Policy interventions to increase women’s presence in the workforce and leadership positions vary in their intensity, with some including a lone or token woman and others setting higher quotas. However, little is known about how the resulting group gender compositions influence individuals’ experiences and broader workplace dynamics. In this paper, we investigate whether token women are disadvantaged compared to women on majority-women mixed-gender teams. We conducted a multi-year field experiment with a top-10 undergraduate accounting program that randomized the gender composition of semester-long teams. Using laboratory, survey, and administrative data, we find that even after accounting for their proportion of …

The Effect Of Magnitude And Probability On Plea Bargain Decision-Making, Megan L. Small

College of Graduate Studies: Theses & Dissertations

Decision-making is studied in various aspects of life and can be especially vital in the context of the criminal justice system, such as plea bargains. Previous research in this area used a less commonly used task (fill-in-the-blank) in addition to a student sample (Falligant & Pence, 2019). The current study uses probability discounting to study the choice between accepting a plea bargain for a shorter incarceration sentence or risking a trial with a longer sentence on a sample of adults with experience in the criminal justice system. Three sentence durations, or magnitudes, were used (1 year, 5 years, and 25 …

Continuous And Discrete Models For Optimal Harvesting In Fisheries, Nagham Abbas Al Qubbanchee

Masters Theses

"This work focuses on the logistic growth model, where the Gordon-Schaefer model is considered in continuous time. We view the Gordon-Schaefer model as a bioeconomic equation involved in the fishing business, considering biological rates, carrying capacity, and total marginal costs and revenues. In [25], the authors illustrate the analytical solution of the Schaefer model using the integration by parts method and two theorems. The theorems have many assumptions with many different strategies. Due to the nature of the problem, the optimal control system involves many equations and functions, such as the second root of the equation. We concentrate on Theorem …

Western Region Health & Wellness Programming Efforts: Qualitative Results From A Three-Part Listening Session, Cris L. Meier, Lily Ward, Anders Van Sandt, Sue Schneider, Riana Gayle

All Current Publications

The purpose of this project was to understand the programming efforts and experiences of Extension professionals in the Western Region of the United States. The Health and Wellness Working Group team held a series of listening sessions with a closed cohort of Extension professionals, hoping to learn from each other while also building the foundation for future collaborations and conversations about health and wellness programing in the western region.

The objectives were to understand: (1) the state of health and wellness work in the western region, including the gaps and challenges, (2) the programs that currently exist and ways that …

Signals From On High And The Power Of Growth Mindset: A Natural Field Experiment In Attracting Minorities To High-Profile Position, Jeffrey A. Flory, Andreas Leibbrandt, Christina Rott, Olga B. Stoddard

Faculty Publications

We conduct a large-scale natural field experiment with a Fortune 500 company to test several approaches to attract minorities to high-profile positions. 5,000 prospective applicants were randomized into treatments varying a portion of recruiting materials. We find that self-selection at two early-career stages exhibits a substantial race gap. Importantly, we show that this gap can be strongly influenced by several treatments, with some increasing application rates by minorities by 40 percent and others being particularly effective for minority women. The heterogeneities we find by gender, race, and career stage shed light on the underlying drivers of self-selection barriers among minorities.

Teaching Income Inequality With Data-Driven Visualization, Sang T. Truong, Humberto Barreto

School of Business and Leadership Working Papers

The distribution of household income is a central concern in economics due to its strong influence on society’s well-being and social cohesion. Yet, non-expert audiences face serious obstacles in understanding conventional measures of inequality. To effectively communicate the extent of income inequality in the United States, we have developed a novel technique for visualizing income distribution and its dispersion over time by using U.S. household income microdata from the Current Population Survey. The result is a striking dynamic animation of income distribution over time, drawing public attention and encouraging further investigation of income inequality. Detailed implementation is available at https://github.com/sangttruong/incomevis. …

The Role Of Data For Ai Startup Growth, James Bessen, Stephen Michael Impink, Lydia Reichensperger, Robert Seamans

Faculty Scholarship

Artificial intelligence (“AI”)-enabled products are expected to drive economic growth. Training data are important for firms developing AI-enabled products; without training data, firms cannot develop or refine their algorithms. This is particularly the case for AI startups developing new algorithms and products. However, there is no consensus in the literature on which aspects of training data are most important. Using unique survey data of AI startups, we find that startups with access to proprietary training data are more likely to acquire venture capital funding.

Exchange Rate Forecast Model: Factor Analysis, Swapnil Landge

Publications and Research

Forecasting the exchange rate using factor analysis, factors based on cross section exchange rates of different economies in terms of trade, would beat random walk model in longer out of sample horizon forecasting. In this research project, we will replicate the NBER working paper Factor Model Forecasts of Exchange Rates” by Charles Engel, Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West (2012) which has used 17 OECD countries exchange rates in getting the potential factors but with extended time period from 1973:1-2021:4. We will report early sample forecasting statistics for a 1987-1998 sample. Results for late samples (1999-2022) were promising, at …

Does Recreational Marijuana Dispensing Induce Substitution For Alcohol?, Aubrey E. Mange

Economics Masters Project Research Papers

I exploit geographic and temporal variation in recreational marijuana dispensing to estimate its effect on alcohol related prices and mortalities. I interpret the finding of a casual reduction in alcoholic poisonings as evidence for a substitutive relationship, contributing to a growing marijuana policy literature and the divided economic literature exploring substitution between the two goods.

Identification Of Poverty Areas By Using Machine Learning Classification Methods From Satellite Imagery In Buraydah City, In The Qassim Region Of Saudi Arabia, Amal Alfawzan

Murray State Theses and Dissertations

Saudi Arabia is a wealthy country with its many resources, but it has seen an increase in poverty recently because of a high rate of population growth with a high rate of unemployment. Some estimate that the number of Saudi Arabians living in poverty is between two and four million. This research aims to develop a way to detect poverty through remote sensing. The study area is Buraydah City, the largest city of the Qassim region, an important agricultural center that plays a significant role in the economy of Saudi Arabia. The research hypothesized that there are poor areas within …

Rethinking The Role Of Employment Barriers In Active Labor Market Policy: Evidence From A Fixed Effects Analysis, Jian Qi Tan, Irene Y. H. Ng, Kong Weng Ho

Research Collection School Of Economics

Using a panel dataset from a five-wave survey of participants in Singapore’s Work Support Programme (WSP) from 2010 to 2016, we quantify the cumulative negative impact of facing multiple employment barriers and demonstrate the association between the individual stressors and labor market indicators. Using a fixed effects model to reduce the confounding effects of unobservables, we find that a one standard deviation increase in the number of employment barriers brings about a 2.7 to 3.5 percentage point increase in the probability of being unemployed and a 58 SGD to 78 SGD decrease in individual earnings.

Does A District Mandate Matter For The Behavior Of Politicians? An Analysis Of Roll-Call Votes And Parliamentary Speeches, Andreas Born, Aljoscha Janssen

Research Collection School Of Economics

In most democracies, members of parliament (MPs) are elected either through a party list or by a district. We use a discontinuity in the German electoral system to investigate the causal effect of a district election on an MP’s conformity with the party line. A district election does not affect roll-call voting behavior causally, possibly due to overall high adherence to party-line voting. Analyzing the parliamentary speeches of each MP allows us to overcome the high party-line discipline with regard to parliamentary voting. Using textual analysis and machine learning techniques, we create two measures of closeness of an MP’s speeches …

Sustainable Strategies For Mass Rapid Transit Ppps, Sock Yong Phang, Bin Chye Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

Mass rapid transit (MRT) PPPs have proliferated in the past two decades. This chapter provides a framework to categorise and understand alternative PPP designs. As MRT systems are inherently large, unprofitable and risky projects, PPP design is critical to project success and sustainability. We study the experiences of MRT PPPs in London, Hong Kong, Singapore and Beijing to understand factors underlying success and failure and to arrive at policy recommendations for PPPs. Policymakers need to have additional governance improvement and risk mitigation measures in place when tied supply chains are utilised. Hong Kong’s experience illustrates that ‘Rail plus Property’ strategy …

Are Simple Mechanisms Optimal When Agents Are Unsophisticated?, Jiangtao Li, Piotr Dworczak

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the design of mechanisms involving agents that have limited strategic sophistication. We define a mechanism to be simple if—given the assumed level of strategic sophistication—agents can determine their optimal strategy. We examine whether it is optimal for the mechanism designer who faces strategically unsophisticated agents to offer a simple mechanism. We show that when the designer uses a mechanism that is not simple, while she loses the ability to predict play, she may nevertheless be better off no matter how agents resolve their strategic confusion