Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

A Garch Approach To Modeling Chilean Long-Term Swap Yields, Tanweer Akram, Khawaja Mamun

WCBT Working Papers

This paper econometrically models the dynamics of the Chilean interbank swap yields based on macroeconomic factors. It examines whether the month-over-month change in the short-term interest rate has a decisive influence on the long-term swap yield after controlling for other factors, such as the change in inflation, change in the growth of industrial production, change in the log of the equity price index, and change in the log of the exchange rate. It applies the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) approach to model the dynamics of the long-term swap yield. The change in the short-term interest rate has an economically …

Pognalysis: An Analysis Of Gender And Language On Twitch.Tv, Julia Michelle Cardillo

Honors College Theses

With the success of the video game and eSports industries, comes the rise of Twitch.tv (also known as Twitch), the most popular live-streaming platform today. Being that the most popular activity to stream on Twitch.tv is video games, there is a lot of overlap between those who play video games or are avid eSports fans and those who watch Twitch. However, these communities are notorious for their hostility towards women. The goal of this study is to assess, if any, the differences in atmosphere, as well as the differences in the presence of gendered language/harassment, profanity, and non-gaming/non-activity related words …

Infrastructure Development And Gentrification: A Case Study Of The 2017 Q Line Extension In New York City, Harrison Shoaf

Honors College Theses

An examination of the 2017 Q Line subway extension in New York City and the potential causal relationship between its implementation and rental rates and gentrification in the surrounding area. Analysis of data covering the timeframe from 2007 to 2019 allows for utilization of OLS regression to determine if the area subject to the implementation experienced a change in rental rates and instigation of gentrification afterward compared to areas that were not subject to the implementation. Results indicate a decrease in rental rates (and by extent, no instigation of gentrification) in the area subject to the extension after it was …

The Economic Impact Of U.S. Drone Strikes On Pakistan, Cavika Prashad

Honors College Theses

Drone strikes have a detrimental impact on the region of a nation, especially when the contact is not the targeted threat. When drone strikes are sent out, they result in consequences such as death, infrastructure damage, and consequently, unemployment increases. While proponents of drone strikes say they are precise weapons with little disruption to civilian life, this paper shows that in Pakistan, U.S. drone strikes have had an economic impact, particularly by increasing unemployment. Using an OLS model, the drone data from the Bureau of Investigative Journalism and individual survey data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics were used to …

An Application Of Prospect Theory: The Effect Of Trailing At Halftime On Winning Nfl Games, Kian R. Sohrabi

Economics Honors Projects

Trailing in sports is associated with losing, but can trailing operate as a powerful motivator that leads to winning? Based on research by Berger and Pope (2011), this study applies Prospect Theory and loss aversion to football to test if trailing by a small margin can motivate success. This relationship is analyzed based on teams’ point differentials at halftime since halftime operates as a salient reference point and a time for teams to regroup and strategize. Analysis of over 12,000 NFL games found no significant effect of trailing at halftime on the likelihood of winning. That is, there is little …

Contextualizing The 2019 “Chile Despertó” Movement: The Impact Of Historical Relational Processes On Mobilization And Repression, Tanya Leon

International Studies (MA) Theses

To expand our theoretical and empirical understanding of mobilization and repression in Latin America, this thesis asks three critical questions. Are economic indicators sufficient predictors of social movement emergence in Latin America? What other factors contribute to large-scale mobilization in Latin America? How do government’s respond to large-scale Latin American social movements? Specifically, when, and why do democratic governments choose to employ repression against social movements? Accordingly, I construct a quantitative model to test the correlation between rise in protest and worsened economic conditions. I apply it to a comprehensive dataset of political events in multiple South American countries throughout …

Perception And Play: Consumer Perceptions Of Craft Breweries And The Impacts Of Tourism Expenditures On Economic Health, Anne Wade

All Theses

This thesis evaluates two different strategies local leaders use to support and grow their economies. The first evaluates how residents from across the American South view and understand their experience of local craft breweries. The second evaluates the effects of direct tourism spending and direct tourism tax receipts on important measures of resident well-being in the twenty-three county Western North Carolina region. The first chapter in this thesis evaluates the overall consumer perception of the growing craft brewing industry within the states of Kentucky, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, and Louisiana and what factors affect this perception. It uses …

Public Policy, Economic Development, And Taxes: An Impact Analysis Of Business Incentive Strategies At The State And Local Level, Richard Nanney

All Dissertations

In an effort to promote economic development, state-level policymakers have exercised discretion over the use of public money to incentivize subsidy packages for decades. Estimates suggest state governments spend approximately $50 billion annually on these initiatives. However, there has been little empirical research about the political and economic benefits received by local residents from these subsidy programs. This dissertation analyzes the effectiveness of state subsidy policy by considering induced economic spillover effects and population attrition rates. It examines how subsidy distribution is related to employment rates, average weekly wages, and population attrition. The project offers two methodological innovations. First, to …

Essays On Bank Performance, Strategic Behavior, And Community Development With A Focus On Minority Depository Institutions And The Political Economy Of Forgiving Student Loans, Guncha Babajanova

All Dissertations

I explore questions related to financial institutions, the accessibility of financial services, community development, and the political economy of forgiving student loans using the ideas from spatial economics, industrial organization, and public choice. Increased access to financial services improves the economic outcomes of individuals and firms in the community. Understanding sources leading to a lower accessibility of financial services is integral for an effective endeavor to lower barriers to financial services with far-reaching policy and economic implications. The economic literature provides evidence of the beneficial effects of increased access to financial services as well as the adverse effects of diminished …

Monetary Policy And Banking Sector Stability In Nigeria, Didigu Chizoba E., Joshua Nsikak J., Okon Joel I., Eze Annette O., Gopar Jurbe Y., Oraemesi Charles N., Udofia Blessing-Oxford U., Yisa Daniel N., Ejinkonye Jude C., Ette Victoria E.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the impact of monetary policy on banking sector stability in Nigeria, utilizing quarterly data for the period 2007Q1 to 2021Q4. The study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration. Results show that a long run relationship exist between banking sector stability and monetary policy in Nigeria. Furthermore, monetary policy rate, liquidity ratio, and cash reserve ratio are found to enhance banking sector stability. The study recommends, among others, that cash reserve and liquidity ratios should be kept at levels that will prevent excess liquidity in the system.

The Role Of Paid Family Leave In Labor Supply Responses To A Spouse's Disability Or Health Shock, Priyanka Anand, Laura Dague, Kathryn L. Wagner

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

Disability onset and major health shocks can affect the labor supply of those experiencing the event and their family members, who face a tradeoff between time spent earning income and providing care. This decision could be affected by the availability of paid family leave. We examine the role of paid leave mandates in caregiving and labor supply decisions after a spouse's disability or health shock. Using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, we show that paid leave mandates reduce the likelihood that potential caregivers report decreasing their paid work hours to provide caregiving after a spouse's health …

Labor Market Participation, Income Distribution, And Welfare Gains From Trade, Pao-Li Chang, Yi-Fan Chen, Wen-Tai Hsu

Research Collection School Of Economics

We develop a general equilibrium trade model where households with skill heterogeneity choose between home production and working on the labor market. Unlike most of the trade literature, the labor supply is elastic and is heterogeneous across households. As a result, trade affects labor participation, income, and welfare differently across households. We show that, when market goods and home goods are substitutes, households with lower skill levels expe-rience higher proportional increase to their income, while households with higher skill levels experience higher proportional increase in welfare. We further show that elastic labor supply preserves the extensive margin of welfare gains …

Operational Structures Forming Complex Feedback Loops In Health System / Accountable Care Partnerships – A Multiple-Case Study Investigation To Enable System Dynamics Simulation, Richard J. Pro

Doctoral Dissertations and Projects

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010 introduced accountable care organizations as a critical component in the transformation of the United States healthcare industry to a value-based care model. It also triggered an ongoing series of health system consolidations consistent with the theory of transaction cost economics. Consolidations included the alignment of health systems with accountable care organizations despite the assertions of some researchers that competing economic models rendered such partnerships financially unviable. The academic literature is silent on this issue, without any published studies of the effects of health system / accountable care organization interactions. The purpose …

Anticipatory Intelligence Resilience Modeling Evaluation Of Aspire Research Center, Madeleine Alder

Undergraduate Honors Capstone Projects

The analysis of threats and vulnerabilities in a system is essential in developing resilience strategies to strengthen the system’s ability to adapt and succeed. This report delivers a threat analysis of ASPIRE, a research organization centered on engineering solutions for promoting electric vehicle (EV) adoption. ASPIRE, which is an international network of university research partners and comprised primarily of engineering teams, is focused on developing technology that can be used by industry or governmental partners. The threat of low public buy-in for ASPIRE technology is one of the most significant concerns facing the system. Low adoption rates or public resistance …

Exploring Financial Literacy And Overconfident Investor Behavior, Ryan J. Drews

Doctoral Dissertations and Projects

This study examined the factors predicting overconfidence in U.S. investors and the relationship between overconfidence and seeking financial advice. This study adopted a quantitative research method using the 2018 NFCS Investor Survey data to explore the relationship between financial literacy and investor behavior in the U.S. stock market. Theories in financial literacy and overconfident behavior are combined to identify factors that predict overconfident behavior in U.S. investors. A logistic regression model was utilized to understand the relationship between financial literacy, demographics, and overconfident investor behavior. The results show a positive relationship between overconfident behavior and portfolio value, seeking financial advice, …

The Gambler's Edge - A Theoretical Framework To Trading Securities, Matthew Haines

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

Like gamblers, retail investors seeking excess returns in financial markets are prone to miscalculation and their models are often misspeciffied. Forecasting asset prices is extremely difficult in the long run and nearly infeasible in the short run. Additionally, retail investors are likely to be at a disadvantage both technologically and informationally—rarely will they be ahead of the curve. With these disadvantages and the difficulty of predicting future outcomes, retail investors may come to view prices as unpredictable and random in nature, like a roll of the dice. This theoretical research explores a possible investing methodology (derived from gambling principles) should …

Changes In Voting Behavior Along Partisan Lines Due To Extreme Weather Events Linked To Climate Change, Daniel Brinkerhoff

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

This paper investigates the relationship between extreme weather events linked to climate change and partisan voting behavior. Looking at House of Representative and Senate elections in the US between 2000-2018 and comparing them to extreme damages from droughts, flooding, tropical cyclones, and fire. Ultimately, we do not find a stable relationship between weather damages and partisan voting behavior.

Implicit Cost Of Retaliatory Tariffs By Mexico On U.S. Cheese Export, Pengyan Sun

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

Mexico imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. cheeses ranging from 20 to 25 percent in July 2018. In order to provide valuable information for the government and farmers, my research estimated the implicit cost of retaliatory tariffs by Mexico on U.S. cheese exports. In particular, I estimate the difference between the forecasted value of cheese exported to Mexico and the actual value of cheese exported to Mexico using four different models. The total impact to the U.S. economy from the losses due to retaliatory tariffs was assessed by IMPLAN, an input/output model. The results showed that Mexican tariffs decreased U.S. industry …

Regional Economic Contribution Of Crop Insurance Indemnity Payment In The U.S., Hwangwon Lee

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

The Federal Crop Insurance Program (FCIP) has played a pivotal role in agricultural businesses and communities. The FCIP allows farmers to purchase farm and farm-related products and services, maintain heavy agricultural machinery, and utilize farm agency services for preparing for farming in the following agricultural years. In addition, the indemnities enable farmers to repay debts, alleviate farm collapses, and keep farm industries purchasing agricultural-related products and the necessary goods for everyday living, stabilizing the local and farming economies (Lubben & Thompson, 2013).

This study investigates the economic contribution of crop indemnity payments using a methodology that will capture the total …

Economic Experiments On Group Identity And Bias, Nathaniel Christopher Burke

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Experiments in economics have been a valuable tool to understand the behavioral implications of incentives on the decision-making process. Particularly, aspects of decision making that cannot be observed in empirical data can be better isolated in an experimental setting such as bias and identity impacts. This dissertation uses three distinct experiments to further the understanding of individual biases, perceptions, and identity and how they impact the way people defer to these internal traits under incentives. This dissertation looks at how well individuals can make inferences about polling data that was collected from individuals susceptible to socially desirable responding. It also …

Covid-19 Risk Analysis Of Turkey In The Context Of Syrian Influx, Ilhan Can Oze, Pinar Derin Gure, Ecem Yargici

Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies

The COVID-19 crisis is finding the unknown vulnerabilities of many countries, as well as allowing some to show and perform a myriad of unknown resiliencies and strengths. In analysing the source of strength, and vulnerability, we have to explore the myriad dimensions of society and the new inequalities and new social issues that have arisen. The analysis of COVID vulnerability must be understood as analysis not only of the health resources and systems but also the aspects of the society that become important for spreading or alleviating contagion or decreasing or increasing the level of disease mortality. For the Turkish …

A Black-Scholes User's Guide To The Bachelier Model, Jaehyuk Choi, Minsuk Kwak, Chyng Wen Tee, Yumeng Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

To cope with the negative oil futures price caused by the COVID-19 recession, global commodity futures exchanges switched the option model from Black-Scholes to Bachelier in April 2020. This study reviews the literature on Bachelier's pioneering option pricing model and summarizes the practical results on volatility conversion, risk management, stochastic volatility, and barrier options pricing to facilitate the model transition. In particular, using the displaced Black-Scholes model as a model family with the Black-Scholes and Bachelier models as special cases, we not only connect the two models but also present a continuous spectrum of model choices.

Essays On Delegation And Voter Preferences, Cory Simpkins

All Dissertations

Chapter 1 examines delegation and communication as strategies in coordination games with uncertainty and social preferences. I construct a model where other-regarding partners attempt to coordinate over a binary choice with privately known utilities. Players can choose to either communicate by signaling their preferences or delegate the choice entirely to their partner. I characterize equilibrium behavior under various assumptions on information transmission and coordination risk. If coordination is risky, there is a type of "first mover advantage" where the first player to communicate her own-preference guarantees her ideal outcome when communication is honest revelation. When preference signals are cheap talk, …

Covid-19 And Its Impact On Minority-Owned Banks, Salvador Contreras, Amit Ghosh

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Employing a difference-in-differences framework, we examine the effect of COVID-19 on various performance metrics of minority-owned banks relative to peer banks. We find little evidence of worsening performance of minority-owned banks, except for Asian-owned banks. In some instances, minority banks show improved performance. We find a decline in nonperforming single-family residential loans for Hispanic-owned banks. Moreover, minority banks have disbursed more Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans than their matched non-minority counterparts. Their resilient performance indicates that minority banks are well positioned to aid in the ongoing economic recovery.

Laissez-Faire, Social Networks, And Race In A Pandemic, Roland Pongou, Guy Tchuente, Jean-Baptiste Tondji

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We study the effects of race, network centrality, and policies that tolerate some level of virus spread (laissez-faire) on COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes in the United States. Our analysis uses unique data on nursing home networks and calibration-based estimates of states' preferences for health relative to short-term economic gains. Our findings suggest that laissez-faire policies increase deaths. Nursing homes with a larger share of Black residents experience more deaths, but they are less vulnerable to laissez-faire policies, especially when not central in social networks. Our findings highlight significant interactions between COVID-19 policies, race, and network structure among US seniors.

Variation And Efficiency Of High-Frequency Betas, Congshan Zhang, Jia Li, Viktor Todorov, George Tauchen

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies the efficient estimation of betas from high-frequency return data on a fixed time interval. Under an assumption of equal diffusive and jump betas, we derive the semiparametric efficiency bound for estimating the common beta and develop an adaptive estimator that attains the efficiency bound. We further propose a Hausman type test for deciding whether the common beta assumption is true from the high-frequency data. In our empirical analysis we provide examples of stocks and time periods for which a common market beta assumption appears true and ones for which this is not the case. We further quantify …

Probabilistic Fixed Ballot Rules And Hybrid Domains, Shurojit Chatterji, Souvik Roy, Soumyarup Sadhukhan, Arunava Sen, Huaxia Zeng

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study a class of preference domains that satisfies the familiar properties of minimal richness, diversity and no-restoration. We show that a specific preference restriction, hybridness, has been embedded in these domains so that the preferences are single-peaked at the “extremes” and unrestricted in the “middle”. We also study the structure of strategy-proof and unanimous Random Social Choice Functions on these domains. We show them to be special cases of probabilistic fixed ballot rules (introduced by Ehlers, Peters, and Storcken (2002)).

Labor Market Institutions And The Incidence Of Payroll Taxation, Jinyoung Kim, Seonghoon Kim, Kanghyock Koh

Research Collection School Of Economics

Despite the unambiguous predictions of the canonical model of a competitive labor market, empirical studies of the labor market effects of payroll taxation provide conflicting evidence. We estimate the labor market impacts of payroll taxation in Singapore, the country with the most competitive and flexible labor market among the countries investigated in the literature. By exploiting the sharp reduction in payroll tax rate when workers turn 60, we find that the reduced payroll tax rate in Singapore has a large effect on wages without changes in employment. Our meta-analysis shows consistent evidence that varying degrees of labor market competitiveness across …

Inflation And Ukraine War Make It Challenging For Our Beloved Value Stores To Survive, Aurobindo Ghosh, Taimur Baig

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In a joint commentary, SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) and Principal Investigator of DBS-SKBI Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations Project Aurobindo Ghosh and Chief Economist and Managing Director at DBS Bank Dr Taimur Baig discussed how global inflationary pressures and rising commodity prices due to war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia are culminating into a perfect storm and making it challenging for value stores to survive. They also gave advice on what value stores can do to survive this perfect storm.

¡Avancemos Ya!: Persistent Economic Challenges And Opportunities Facing Latinos In Massachusetts, Trevor Mattos, Phillip Granberry, Vishakha Agarwal

Gastón Institute Publications

Massachusetts is among the wealthiest states in the country, yet Latino communities here have struggled economically relative to Latinos nationwide. There have been some bright spots—poverty rates have decreased and Latinos now have higher rates of entrepreneurship, education and labor force participation than in years past. Still, a disproportionate share of the more than 800,000 Latinos in Massachusetts today contend with food insecurity and have low rates of intergenerational economic mobility.