Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

The Boosted Hp Filter Is More General Than You Might Think, Ziwei Mei, Peter C. B. Phillips, Zhentao Shi

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The global financial crisis and Covid recession have renewed discussion concerning trend-cycle discovery in macroeconomic data, and boosting has recently upgraded the popular HP filter to a modern machine learning device suited to data-rich and rapid computational environments. This paper sheds light on its versatility in trend-cycle determination, explaining in a simple manner both HP filter smoothing and the consistency delivered by boosting for general trend detection. Applied to a universe of time series in FRED databases, boosting outperforms other methods in timely capturing downturns at crises and recoveries that follow. With its wide applicability the boosted HP filter is …

The Euro And Bumps In The Road: Historical Patterns Of Nonresident Holdings In Eurozone Bonds, 1980–2018, Michael H. Scarlatos

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

A developed bond market which attracts nonresident investors both enables and reflects a host currency’s transition from domestic to international status. My analysis of historical private nonresident holdings of Eurozone portfolio debt securities spanning the euro’s 1999 creation and its subsequent 2008 crisis reveals diverging patterns.

This analysis, complemented by coefficient stability tests, discovers that the conversion of national currencies to the euro was reflected by a pickup in nonresident holdings of bonds issued by countries adopting the euro, especially those of the periphery (Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain) relative to the core (Germany, Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, and the …

Essays On Inequality, Growth, And Economic Policy, Philipp E. Erfurth

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters that study inequality and regional economics in a historical and development context.

The first chapter examines regional inequality among Habsburg regions from the 19th century to today’s EU by using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software to recreate historical regions in present-day projections. The findings suggests that regional disparities are markedly higher today than in the 19th century, despite rapid convergence in the past two decades. The study thus provides evidence of retrospective determinism in the study of the Habsburg economy and suggests that, although regional EU policy has been successful over the past two …

Essays On Federalism And Local Finance In China, Jiakai Zhang

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters that cover topics on federalism and local finance in China.

Chapter 1 - Economic Growth, Fiscal Inequality and Fiscal Decentralization: Evidence from China.

This paper investigates the impact of inequality in the geographic distribution of fiscal resources on regional economic growth under fiscal decentralization policy in the context of China's experience, using panel data for 28 provinces over the period 1987–2010. In the recent past, the structure of decentralized government in China has undergone two significant fiscal reforms: the ``Fiscal Responsibility System" (FRS) in 1987-1993, and the ``Tax Sharing System" (TSS) in 1994. I …

Expulsive Greening: A Cross-Sectional Analysis Of Green Gentrification In The Resilience Paradigm, Brooklyn 2010–2020, Rose Jimenez

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Background: This project analyzes the spatial coincidence between gentrification typologies and urban greening in Brooklyn, New York from 2010 to 2020. Assets formed under the NYC Green Infrastructure Program were chosen as a proxy for urban greening to represent the spatial practice specifically within the 21st-century climate change resilience paradigm of development. Methods: First, five indexes measuring variations of economic and demographic conditions related to gentrification were applied to Brooklyn for comparative analysis: NOAA’s Social Vulnerability Indicators of Gentrification Pressure, The NYC Heat Vulnerability Index, The Small Area Index of Gentrification, Typologies of Gentrification and Displacement, and The Housing Risk …

Essays On Spillover Effects Across U.S And China, Zhuo Xi

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter1: With the rapid development and continuous advancement of economic globalization, the links between countries around the world have become increasingly tight. Among them, the United States, as the world's largest economy, its monetary policy is bound to cause significant spillover effects on other economies around the world. By constructing a Threshold SVAR model with monthly data from 1996 to 2019, this paper empirically investigates the spillover effects of US monetary policy on China's economy during different U.S policy regimes. The transmission mechanism of such effects has been tested through different channels including policy channel, trade channel, asset value channel …

Essays On Social Mobility And Distribution, Luis A. Monroy Gómez Franco

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters on the relationship between immutable characteristics of a person (also known as circumstances) and the intergenerational social mobility experienced by them, as well as their human capital accumulation. It pays particular attention to the role played by the economic resources of the household of origin in producing differences in the economic outcomes across persons.

In the first chapter, I show that the decomposition of intergenerational persistence indicators into their structural and positional components offers a clearer understanding of the determinants of heterogeneity in subnational mobility rates. The crucial element for the separate analysis of …

Essays On Housing And Macroeconomics, Pablo Lara Hinojos

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter 1: House Prices and Aggregate Markups: A VAR Approach

Based on the empirical results of Stroebel and Vavra (2019), who find that a local increase in house prices translates into higher local retail markups and prices, I investigate whether this relationship holds at the aggregate level. I first construct a quarterly aggregate markup series and find that house prices and aggregate markups have a positive relationship. This result emerges from a Vector Autoregression (VAR) system that includes the nominal interest rate, the inflation rate, aggregate house prices, aggregate markups, and real output. I use the Impulse Response Functions (IRFs) …

Essays In Asset Pricing, Muhammed Yonac

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three essays in asset pricing with the common theme of return predictability.

Chapter 1: This chapter introduces the motivation, results, and structure of the dissertation.

Chapter 2: I examine the relation between the social ties between firms' headquarters locations and co-movements between their fundamentals and stock returns. The evidence indicates that firms in the same industry with socially connected locations exhibit co-movement in fundamentals and stock returns that exceed those without socially connected locations. However, the stock returns reflect the location information with a lag. To exploit this lagged relationship, we form portfolios that buy (sell) …

Macroeconomic Adjustments Of Global Convergence: Real Exchange Rate Response Of Asia-Pacific Growth, Kumarappan Annamalai

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters.

Chapter 1 : PURCHASING POWER PARITY, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, PRICE LEVEL INDEX and HARROD-BALASSA-SAMUELSON EFFECT: LITERATURE SURVEY

In the light of the concepts explained in the introduction section, this chapter explores the seminal papers on the Purchasing Power Parity principle, the Real Exchange rate, and the Price Level Index, showing the evolution of PPP and the methodologies adopted in exploring the characteristics of PPP and the real exchange rates. Various characteristics might be stationarity or non-stationarity of the real exchange rates (RER), variance, correlation, half-life measures, linearity versus non-linearity, etc. Various methodologies adopted were …

Historical Political Economy: What Is It?, Jeffrey Jenkins, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

In this chapter, we define what historical political economy (HPE) is and is not, classify the major themes in the literature, assess the relative strengths and weaknesses of the literature, and point to future directions. We view HPE as social scientific inquiry which highlights political causes or consequences of historical issues. HPE is different from conventional political economy in the emphasis placed on historical processes and context. While we view HPE in the most inclusive manner reasonable, we define it to exclude works that are either solely of contemporary importance or use historical data without any historical context (e.g., long-run …

A Modern Guide To Tourism Economics, Chapter 1: Introduction, Robertico Croes, Yang Yang

Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

This Modern Guide captures the evolution of foundational tenets, theories, frameworks and models that buttressed tourism economics into an evolving discipline, shining light on both new and old approaches. It systematically examines current and future trends and issues related to new economic perspectives, consolidating the notion of tourism economics as a discipline.

Reducing Property Taxes For Agriculture: Diffusion Of Use-Value Assessment Policy Across The United States, John E. Anderson, Seth H. Giertz, Shafiun N. Shimul

Department of Economics: Faculty Publications

We analyze the spread across the fifty states of use-value assessment (UVA) programs applied to agricultural and rural land for property tax purposes. Taxing land based on the value associated with its current use in agriculture rather than its full market value can confer substantial tax savings for landowners, affecting land use patterns. Using time-to-event models, we find that the secular trend toward urbanization across all fifty states was a driving force behind the spread of UVA policies. In particular, increasing secular trends in agricultural land values (associated with urbanization) provide a strong motivation for agriculture to pursue UVA, and …

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 6, Number 9, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton, Chia-Chun Chiang

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

A Study On The Impact Of Technological Innovation Attributes On Listing Success Rate And Post-Listing Performance, Yijun Xu

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

"Key and core technology" enterprises form the backbone of great powers. China’s STAR Market (technological innovation board) is committed to implementing strategies that will lead to technological innovation-driven sustainable development and strengthen the country by building a secure and independent industrial chain that can support the development of cutting-edge technology. From the outset, the STAR Market put forward clear requirements for "key and core technology" enterprises. The technological innovation attributes of the enterprises listed on the STAR Market are the most essential core characteristics, but a question arises as to how best to evaluate their technological innovation attributes. Are these …

The Dynamics Of Monthly Changes In Us Swap Yields: A Keynesian Perspective, Tanweer Akram, Khawaja Mamun

WCBT Working Papers

John Maynard Keynes (1930) asserted that the central bank sways the long-term interest rate through the influence of its policy rate on the short-term interest rate. Recent empirical research shows that Keynes's conjecture holds for long-term Treasury yields in the United States. This paper investigates whether Keynes's conjecture also holds for the monthly changes in US long-term swap yields by econometrically modeling its dynamics using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. The econometric modeling reveals that there is statistically significant effect on the monthly changes in the Treasury bill rate on the monthly changes in swap yields of different maturity …

Posterior-Based Wald-Type Statistic For Hypothesis Testing, Xiaobin Liu, Yong Li, Jun Yu, Tao Zeng

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new Wald-type statistic is proposed for hypothesis testing based on Bayesian posterior distributions under the correct model specification. The new statistic can be explained as a posterior version of the Wald statistic and has several nice properties. First, it is well-defined under improper prior distributions. Second, it avoids Jeffreys–Lindley–Bartlett’s paradox. Third, under the null hypothesis and repeated sampling, it follows a distribution asymptotically, offering an asymptotically pivotal test. Fourth, it only requires inverting the posterior covariance for parameters of interest. Fifth and perhaps most importantly, when a random sample from the posterior distribution (such as MCMC output) is available, …

The Economic Impact Of Buying And Redeveloping Ellis Park By Churchill Downs, Thomas E. Lambert

Faculty and Staff Scholarship

Churchill Downs’ acquisition of Ellis Park Racing and Gaming in Henderson, Kentucky reflects the growing number of mergers across the US among racetracks, racetracks and casinos, and casinos with other casinos. Some years back, Ellis racetrack closed for one year due to declining profitability, yet after new ownership took over and a gaming center was added, it began a rebound in earnings (Courier and Press 2008). The $75 million that Churchill Downs plans to spend to transform Ellis Park (Schulz 2022) will have a much bigger impact than the construction, revamping, and expansion of park facilities. This is in addition …

Are West Virginia Banks Unique?, Eduardo Minuci, Scott Schuh

Economics Faculty Working Papers Series

Many factors contribute to weak economic growth in Appalachia, but little research has examined the role of banking heterogeneity and efficiency across states. This paper documents how West Virginia (WV) banks' financial behavior differs from other U.S. banks and shows these differences cannot be explained fully by the composition of banks in the state. Despite experiencing faster banking consolidation, West Virginia still has more and smaller banks that are less efficient and profitable. WV banks' customers and managers heavily favor liabilities (time deposits) and assets (real estate loans) with longer maturity and lower risk and returns. Although shares of time …

Essays On Machine Learning Methods In Economics, Mani Bayani

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters on machine learning modeling in economics. Chapter 1 - Robust PCA Synthetic Control: In this chapter, I propose an algorithm for comparative studies called robust PCA synthetic control. My algorithm builds on the synthetic control model of Abadie et al., 2015 and the robust synthetic control model of Amjad et al., 2018. I apply all three methods (robust PCA synthetic control, synthetic control, and robust synthetic control) to answer the hypothetical question, what would have been the per capita GDP of West Germany if it had not reunified with East Germany in 1990? I …

Essays On Impacts Of Women Empowerment On The Health Outcomes Of Children, Sagnik Das

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter 1: Taking cognizance of the lack of representation of women in politics, the Indian government in 1993, enacted the 73rd constitutional amendment which led to a sudden increase in the representation of women in the local governments. Exploiting the exogenous variation in the timing of implementation of the 73rd amendment across the states, I study the spillover effects of this mandated empowerment of women on the health outcomes of children by using nationally representative survey data and employing a difference-in-difference estimation strategy. In this study, I find evidence of a positive impact of mandated women empowerment on the survival …

Essays On Futures Market And Machine Learning, Jonathan J. Lopez Camara

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter 1 - Big Data And Machine Learning To Predict Overnight Interest Rates. This paper is a brief introduction to the two main pieces I have elaborated as part of the dissertation. Here, I explain the reasons why I have done my research about predicting the overnight interest rates for Mexico and the United States using big data and machine learning models. I explain the connection between the two research papers, I define some basic concepts such as future contracts and the overnight funding rate for Mexico. There is a summary about the data I use, and the machine learning …

The Asymmetric Effects Of External Debt On Economic Growth In Selected Mena Countries: Some Insights From A Panel Quantile Regression, Mahmoud Haddad, Refk Selmi, Shawkat Hammoudeh

Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies

The increased level of debt is a major risk for the financial stability and questions the ability of countries to balance fiscal vulnerabilities with development goals. With the rising debt wave and additional pressures induced by the pandemic and the Russian/Ukrainian war on sources of development finance, this study uses a panel quantile regression to re-examine the asymmetric relationship between the external debt and economic growth in six highly indebted MENA countries, namely, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia over the period 2006-2019. The outcomes support the main hypothesis that high debt reduces economic growth, yet this effect seems …

Bayesian Methods In Economics And Finance: Editor's Introduction, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Modern days, Bayesian methods have gained prominence in theoretical work and applications in economics and finance due to the rapid development of computational technologies and their ability to learn. The special issue intends to examine central aspects in Bayesian analysis and applications, including prior choices, model selection with massive data and latent variables, hypothesis testing, Bayesian learning. In total, this special issue contains ten papers, all subject to the Journal of Econometrics (JOE)’s normal refereeing process. Most of these papers came from a conference held at the ESSEC Singapore campus on 10 December 2018.

Charging Drivers By The Gallon Vs. The Mile: An Equity Analysis By Geography And Income In California, Samuel Speroni, Asha Weinstein Agrawal, Michael Manville, Brian D. Taylor

Mineta Transportation Institute

This study used data from the 2017 National Household Travel Survey California Add-On sample to explore how replacing the current state vehicle fuel tax with a flat-per-mile-rate road-user charge (RUC) would affect costs for different kinds of households. We first estimated how household vehicle fuel efficiency, mileage, and fuel tax expenditures vary by geography (rural vs. urban) and by income. These findings were then used to estimate how much different types of households pay in the current per-gallon state fuel tax, what they would pay if the state were to replace fuel taxes with a flat-rate road-usage charge (RUC) that …

Overnight Returns, Daytime Reversals, And Future Stock Returns, Ferhat Akbas, Ekkehart Boehmer, Chao Jiang, Paul D. Koch

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

A higher frequency of positive overnight returns followed by negative trading day reversals during a month suggests a more intense daily tug of war between opposing investor clienteles, who are likely composed of noise traders overnight and arbitrageurs during the day. We show that a more intense daily tug of war predicts higher future returns in the cross section. Additional tests support the conclusion that, in a more intense tug of war, daytime arbitrageurs are more likely to discount the possibility that positive news arrives overnight and thus overcorrect the persistent upward overnight price pressure.

Political Connections, Informational Asymmetry, And The Efficient Resolution Of Financial Distress, Madhav S. Aney, Sanjay Banerji

Research Collection School Of Economics

We show that securities issued by a distressed firm, often through exchange offers, providethe most efficient resolution of financial restructuring. Information asymmetry between thefirm-bank coalition and small bondholders gives rise to other forms of distress resolutionsuch as refinancing, public workout, and the inefficiency of liquidation. We find that politicallobbying by the firm-bank amplifies these inefficiencies and inhibits the development of privatemarket for distressed securities. Cross-country evidence is consistent with this and indicatesthat improved creditor rights, and information facilitating credit bureaus interact in reducingthe likelihood of inefficient distress resolution.

Latinas In The Labor Market, Lorna Rivera, Vishakha Agarwal, Phillip Granberry

Gastón Institute Publications

In Massachusetts, the share of Latinas in the overall population has been rapidly increasing. From 2000 to 2019, the number of Latinas increased by 81.5%1 even as the number of Non-Latina women declined by about 5.8% during that same period. The share of Non-Latina White women in the Massachusetts female population dropped from approximately 82% in 2000 to 71% in 2019.

This report offers an in-depth look at the difference between the median wage income and other labor market outcomes of Latina and Non-Latina women in the Massachusetts workforce. (A great majority of Non-Latina women workers in Massachusetts are White …

Executive Compensation And The Potential For Additional Efficiency Gains: Evidence From The Indian Manufacturing Sector, Levent Kutlu, Usha Nair-Reichert

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We examine the relationship between executive compensation and technical efficiency. We highlight heterogeneity in this relationship, identify opportunities for within-sector efficiency gains, and the channels through which such gains occur. Previous research mainly focuses on excessive executive compensation that does not reflect firm performance. We develop unique measures for executive overcompensation and undercompensation, and account for endogeniety. Using firm-level data for the Indian chemical, textile, and pharmaceutical sectors during 2004–2015, we conclude that the median firm overcompensates and large firms undercompensate their executives. Overcompensation decreases firms’ profits as increased executive costs outweigh the benefits of efficiency gains. Firms in the …

United We Stand: On The Benefits Of Coordinated Punishment, Vicente Calabuig, Natalia Jiménez, Gonzalo Olcina, Ismael Rodriguez-Lara

ESI Working Papers

Coordinated punishment occurs when punishment decisions are complements; i.e., this punishment device requires a specific number of punishers to be effective; otherwise, no damage will be inflicted on the target. While societies often rely on this punishment device, its benefits are unclear compared with uncoordinated punishment, where punishment decisions are substitutes. We argue that coordinated punishment can prevent the free-riding of punishers and show, both theoretically and experimentally, that this may be beneficial for cooperation in a team investment game, compared with uncoordinated punishment.