Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Walrasian Indeterminacy And Keynesian Macroeconomics, John Geanakoplos, Heracles M. Polemarchakis

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Overlapping generations models with or without production or a portfolio demand for money display a fundamental indeterminacy. Expectations matter; and they are not, in the short run, constrained by the hypotheses of agent optimization, rational expectations, and market clearing. No short run policy analysis is possible without some explicit understanding of how agents expect the economy to respond to the policy. In this framework of perfect foresight and market clearing prices, it is possible to make Keynesian assumptions about the rigidity of money wages and the exogeneity of “animal spirits” of investors, to use the standard IS-LM apparatus, and to …

The Uses, Value And Limitation Of Game Theoretic Methods In Defense Analysis, Martin Shubik

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The central contribution of game theory to defense analysis has been a language for the understanding of how to formulate and study strategic or cross-purposes optimization in situations involving two or more actors. It is suggested here in this discussion that two fundamentally different classes of application of game theory to problems in defense have emerged. The first is the application of two-person zero sum game theory to military, primarily tactical situations which for the purposes at hand can be reasonably well modeled in this manner. The second is the application of two or more person nonconstant sum game theory …

Comparative Statics And Local Indeterminacy In Olg Economies: An Application Of The Multiplicative Ergodic Theorem, John Geanakoplos, Donald J. Brown

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This study is an effort to give a simple measure of the local size of the equilibrium set of OLG economies in which there may be more than one good and more than one consumer per period, and in which the generations may differ across time.

Goodwin Model, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Handwritten notes titled Goodwin model: cyclical growth

• Goodwin: A model of fluctuating growth (November 8, 1985)

• Notes on Goodwin's cyclical RAL model (July 30, 1987)

The Effect Of Market Power On The Fringe Benefit Share Of Labor Compensation, Brian Brush, Steven E. Crane

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

No abstract provided.

Imports And Unemployment: Dispelling The Myths, Murray L. Weidenbaum

Murray Weidenbaum Publications

This paper looks at the myths concerning how imports reduce employment and clarifies many of the misconceptions. Recommendations are made on how trade policy can help American business be more competitive.

A "Dutch Uncle" Talk On Foreign Trade, Murray L. Weidenbaum

Murray Weidenbaum Publications

This piece shows how trade protection causes more harm than good for the U.S. as well as other countries.

Economics Of Drying Grain, Richard C. Shane

Economics Commentator (1972- 2016)

No abstract provided.

Economics Of Grain Storage, Richard C. Shane

Economics Commentator (1972- 2016)

No abstract provided.

America Is Eating Its Seed Corn, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D.

Hyman P. Minsky Archive

One of the ongoing columns, "The ECONOMY from the Not-So Ivory Tower." Included here is the original paper and its title, "Reaganite Myopia and the Quality of Education."

Review Of The Great Depression, 1929-1938: Lessons For The 1980'S, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D.

Hyman P. Minsky Archive

Review of Christian Saint-Etienne. The Great Depression, 1929-1938: Lessons for the 1980s. Stanford, Calif.: Hoover Institution Press, 1984. Appeared in Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. XXIII, Sept. 1985.

Motives For Migration And Land Pressure In Simbu Province, Papua New Guinea, G. T. Harris

Pacific Studies

No abstract provided.

The Rise And Fall Of The White Sugar Planter In Fiji 1880-1925, Bruce Knapman

Pacific Studies

No abstract provided.

Kay Saunders, Ed., Indentured Labour In The British Empire, 1834-1920 & Shula Marks And Peter Richardson, Eds., International Labour Migration: Historical Perspectives (Book Reviews), Ralph Shlomowitz

Pacific Studies

No abstract provided.

Fractional Matrix Calculus And The Distribution Of Multivariate Tests, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Fractional matrix operator methods are introduced as a new tool of distribution theory for use in multivariate analysis and econometrics. Earlier work by the author on this operational calculus is reviewed and to illustrate the use of these methods we give an exact distribution theory for a general class of tests in the multivariate linear model. This distribution theory unifies and generalizes previously known results, including those for the standard F statistic in linear regression, for Hotelling’s T 2 test and for Hotelling’s generalized T -2 test. We also provide a simple and novel derivation of conventional asymptotic theory as …

Asymptotic Results For Generalized Wald Tests, Donald W.K. Andrews

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This note presents conditions under which a quadratic form based on a g-inverted weighting matrix converges to a chi-square distribution as the sample size goes to infinity. Subject to fairly weak underlying conditions, a necessary and sufficient condition is given for this result. The result is of interest, because it is needed to establish asymptotic significance levels and local power properties of generalized Wald tests (i.e., Wald tests with singular limiting covariance matrices). Included in this class of tests are Hausman specification tests and various goodness of fit tests, among others. The necessary and sufficient condition is relevant to procedures …

The Term Structure Of Euromarket Interest Rates: An Empirical Investigation, John Y. Campbell, Richard H. Clarida

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper is an empirical investigation of the predictability and comovement of risk premia in the term structure of Euromarket interest rates. We show that variables which have been used as proxies for risk premia on uncovered foreign asset positions also predict excess returns in Euromarket term structures, while variables which have been used as proxies for risk premia in the term structure also predict excess returns on taking uncovered foreign asset positions. These findings suggest that risk premia move together. We test formally the hypothesis that risk premia on uncovered 3-month EuroDM and Eurosterling deposits move in proportion to …

Forecasting Efficiency: Concepts And Applications, William D. Nordhaus

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The question of forecasting accuracy is, of course, one that has been the subject of numerous investigations over the last two decades. The present study contributes to this line of research in two ways. First, we introduce a new concept, called “forecast efficiency,” that measures the extent to which information is incorporated into forecasts. This concept is closely related to concepts of efficiency used in the analysis of stock and other financial markets. The paper proves two readily testable propositions about efficient forecasts. Second, the empirical part of the study examines forecast efficiency by looking at forecast revisions (“fixed-horizon forecasts”), …

Neoclassical Theory In America: J. B. Clark And Fisher, James Tobin

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The intellectual breakthroughs that mark the neoclassical revolution in economic analysis occurred in Europe around 1870. The next two decades witnessed lively debates in which the new theory more or less absorbed or was absorbed in the classical tradition that preceded and provoked it. In the 1890s, according to Joseph A. Schumpeter (1954, p. 754) there emerged “a large expanse of common ground and … a feeling of repose, both of which created, in the superficial observer, an impression of finality — the finality of a Greek temple that spreads its perfect lines against a cloudless sky.” Of course the …

Multiple Time Series Regression With Integrated Processes, Peter C.B. Phillips, Steven N. Durlauf

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper develops a general asymptotic theory of regression for processes which are integrated of order one. The theory includes vector autoregressions and multivariate regressions amongst integrated processes that are driven by innovation sequences which allow for a wide class of weak dependence and heterogeneity. The models studied cover cointegrated systems and quite general linear simultaneous equations systems with contemporaneous regressor-error correlation and serially correlated errors. Problems of statistical testing in vector autoregressions and multivariate regressions with integrated processes are also studied. It is shown that the asymptotic theory for conventional tests involves major departures from classical theory and raises …

The Many Properties Of Money: A Strategic Market Game Analysis, Martin Shubik

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Among the major properties of a money are that it can serve as (1) a numeraire, (2) a means of exchange, (3) a store of value, and (4) a source of liquidity. Among the lesser properties are that it should be easy to transport and identify, it should be durable, easily divisible, hard to counterfeit and easy to store. A possibly desirable property is that it is an anonymous “bearer instrument,” but the price of anonymity is that it is hard to recover if it is stolen. A personal check which is bank money can be stopped and is more …

Random Cell Chi-Square Diagnostic Tests For Econometric Models: I. Introduction And Applications, Donald W.K. Andrews

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper and its sequel, Andrews [4], extend the Pearson chi-square testing method to non-dynamic parametric econometric models, in particular, models with covariates. The present paper introduced the test and discusses a wide variety of applications. Andrews [4] establishes the asymptotic properties of the test, by extending recent probabilistic results for the weak convergence of empirical processes indexed by sets. The chi-square test that is introduced can be used to test goodness-of-fit of a parametric model, as well as to test particular aspects of the parametric model that are of interest. In the event of rejection of the null hypothesis …

Random Cell Chi-Square Diagnostic Tests For Econometric Models: Ii. Theory, Donald W.K. Andrews

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper extends the Pearson chi-square testing method to non-dynamic parametric econometric models, in particular, to models with covariates. The paper establishes the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under the null and local alternatives, when the test statistic is based on data-dependent random cells of a general form, and on an arbitrary asymptotically normal estimator. These results are attained by extending recent probabilistic results for the weak convergence of empirical processes indexed by sets. The chi-square test that is introduced can be used to test goodness-of-fit of a parametric model, as well as to test particular aspects of the …

A Theory Of Hierarchies Based On Limited Managerial Attention, John Geanakoplos, Paul R. Milgrom

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Our purpose in this paper is to investigate the economics of managerial organizations by focusing on the decision problem of management. Ours is a “team theory” analysis, that is, it ignores the problem of conflicting objectives among managers and focuses instead on the problem of coordinating the decisions of several imperfectly informed actors. However, unlike classical team theory, we concentrate on the choice by managers of what to know, as well as what to do, and we allow the possibility that bounded rationality limits the managers’ ability to understand subtle messages.

Strengthening The Corporate Board: A Constructive Reponses To Hostile Takeovers, Murray L. Weidenbaum

Murray Weidenbaum Publications

This report examines the role of boards of directors and the pressures felt in the boardroom, especially when dealing with an unsolicited takeover. It also examines the different view of what a board can and should do. Recommendations are included for enhancing the board's ability to respond to external challenges.

Sraffa And Keynes: Effective Demand In The Long Run, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D.

Hyman P. Minsky Archive

Prepared for Conference on "Sraffa’s Production of Commodities by Means of Commodities After Twenty Five Years." Aug. 24-27, 1985, Florence, Italy.

Also posted is this paper as it appeared in Krishna Bharadwaj and Bertram Schefold, Ed. Essays On Piero Sraffa: Critical Perspectives On The Revival Of Classical Theory. London, England: Routledge, 1992, pages 362-371.

The third posting is this paper with edits Minsky made apparently after the paper's publication.

Reagan Speaks With Forked Tongue, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D.

Hyman P. Minsky Archive

One of the ongoing column "THE ECONOMY From The Not-So Ivory Tower."

Sections And Extensions Of Concave Functions, Roger Howe

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

No abstract provided.

Existence, Regularity, And Constrained Suboptimality Of Competitive Allocations When The Asset Market Is Incomplete, John Geanakoplos, Heracles M. Polemarchakis

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Let assets be denominated in an a priori specified numeraire. Whether or not the asset is complete, a competitive equilibrium exists as long as arbitrage is possible when assets are free. Generically, the set of competitive equilibria is finite, and the equilibrium prices and allocations in the commodity spot markets are uniquely determined by the asset allocation in a neighborhood of a competitive equilibrium. If the asset market is incomplete, a competitive equilibrium allocation is generically constrained suboptimal : there exists an arbitrarily small reallocation of the existing assets, which leads to a Pareto improvement in welfare when prices and …

Asymptotic Expansions In Nonstationary Vector Autoregressions, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper studies the statistical properties of vector autoregressions (VAR’s) for quite general multiple time series which are integrated of order one. Functional central limit theorems are given for multivariate partial sums of weakly dependent innovations and these are applied to yield first order asymptotics in nonstationary VAR’s. Characteristic and cumulant functionals for generalized random processes are introduced as a means of developing a refinement of central limit theory on function spaces. The theory is used to find asymptotic expansions of the regression coefficients in nonstationary VAR’s under very general conditions. The results are specified to the scalar case and …