Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

The Evolving Beijing Consensus: Chinese Communist Party Political Control And Economic Trade Offs, Ian Murphy

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

China’s rapid economic rise and unique development trajectory have long been the subject of scholarly debate, often framed through the concept of the “Beijing Consensus” as an alternative to the Washington Consensus. While initial conceptualizations highlight innovation, sustainability, and national sovereignty, later analyses highlighted elements like state capitalism and authoritarianism, particularly in the wake of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. This paper argues that the Beijing Consensus is undergoing a significant evolution under Chairman Xi Jinping, increasingly prioritizing the Chinese Communist Party’s political security, regime stability, and ideological control at the expense of economic growth. This marks a notable departure …

All Games Have Equilibria, Arthur Paul Pedersen, M. Ali Khan, Maxwell B. Stinchcombe

Publications and Research

Research on Nash equilibrium existence for infinite games has grown into a patchwork of technical preconditions and counterexamples. This paper presents a unified program in equilibrium theory by revising the predominant model of mixed strategies based on countable additivity. A game is specified by a nonempty set of players and, for each player, a nonempty action set and a bounded von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function. Every such game is shown to admit a Nash equilibrium in finitely additive mixed strategies. In addition, the equilibrium correspondence for any such game is shown to be nonempty, compact-valued, and upper hemicontinuous, and the same …

From Coverage To Care: Evaluating The Effects Of Aca Medicaid Expansion On Birth Outcomes, Bailey R. Lengfelder

Economics Honors Projects

I examine the impact of the Affordable Care Act’s Medicaid expansion on maternal and fetal health outcomes using National Center for Health Statistics Natality data from 2006 to 2023. I exploit staggered state adoption as a quasi-experiment, and the staggered differences-in-differences estimates indicate an increase in the share of Medicaid births but broadly no impact on maternal prenatal care, maternal health, and fetal health. The absence of statistically significant effects is consistent across heterogeneity groups. These null findings indicate that expanded insurance access through the Affordable Care Act may be insufficient to improve health outcomes. I do find a statistically …

Understanding Housing Market Adjustment: Evidence From Population Shocks, Regulation, And Monetary Policy, Michael Tyler Duncan

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

This dissertation studies how housing markets adjust to demographic shocks, local regulation, and macroeconomic policy through three related essays. Chapter 1 develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model and panel VECM evidence to study how population volatility affects housing prices, rents, and construction. It finds that population shocks generate strong price responses across housing markets and more pronounced effects in tight housing markets and declining regions. Chapter 2 examines local rental registry policies using county-level difference-in-differences analysis and finds limited aggregate effects but meaningful heterogeneity across treatment intensity and market segments. Chapter 3 revisits the macro-housing VAR literature on …

“A Civilised Order”: Political Economy Of Welfare State Development In United States And South Africa, Camden M. Webb

Masters Theses

The welfare state and its development across national contexts in the twentieth century signaled a marked change in the state’s relationship with its citizens. They developed in a structural crisis between two political economy organizations, moving from liberal structures to regulated ones. As the world continues the current ongoing structural crisis out of the neoliberal structure, the future of welfare policy is uncertain. My research presents a Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) using the United States and South Africa as most-different cases to explore the similarities and differences in their national contexts that shaped their welfare state development in the early …

Ccb Release Impact On Indonesia’S Bank Lending: A Difference-In-Differences Approach, Sang Tyas Suci, Beta Yulianita Gitaharie

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

This study investigates the impact of Indonesia’s Capital Conservation Buffer (CCB) release on loan growth during the COVID-19 recession. Using a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) approach and bank-level data from 2019:Q1 to 2022:Q2, it analyzes how regulatory capital relief affected lending. The results indicate that the regulation was an effective countercyclical tool to increase loan growth, particularly among less-capitalized banks. The research contributes to the limited empirical evidence on capital buffer policies in emerging markets by examining the effectiveness of temporary capital relief in crisis contexts. We suggest future research on the buffer reimposition and exploring its implications for post-crisis lending behavior.

Testing Mean Stability Of Heteroskedastic Time Series, Violetta Dalla, Liudas Giraitis, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Time series models are often fitted to the data without preliminary checks for stability of the mean and variance, conditions that may not hold in much economic and financial data, particularly over long periods. Ignoring such shifts may result in fitting models with spurious dynamics that lead to unsupported and controversial conclusions about time dependence, causality, and the effects of unanticipated shocks. In spite of what may seem as obvious differences between a time series of independent variates with changing variance and a stationary conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) process, such processes may be hard to distinguish in applied work using basic …

Shrinkflation And Consumer Demand, Aljoscha Janssen, Johannes Kasinger

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study investigates shrinkflation—the practice of reducing product size while maintaining or slightly changing prices—in the U.S. retail grocery market. We analyze a decade of retail scanner data to assess the prevalence and patterns of product size changes across various product categories. Our findings show that approximately 1.92% of products have been downsized. When comparing total sales, product downsizing is more than five times as prevalent as upsizing. Product downsizing typically occurs without a corresponding decrease in price and is widespread across product categories. Consequently, consumers end up paying more per unit volume. We further find that consumers are more …

Childlessness And Health In Middle Age And Older Adulthood: Evidence From Singapore, Christine Ho, Dahye Kim, Rohan Ray, Bussarawan Teerawichitchainan

Research Collection School Of Economics

Health and well-being in mature adulthood are important concerns given the prevalence of individuals aging without children. We exploit two new instruments for childlessness— infertility and the number of childless siblings—and condition our analyses on a rich set of covariates including childhood health and financial status, to investigate the causal relationship between childlessness and health in middle age and older adulthood. Using a nationwide dataset of 1,500 Singaporeans aged 50 and above, we show that OLS underestimates the negativeeffects of childlessness on health. We find that childlessness leads to higher likelihood of poorer self-reported health and mental distress. The results …

Assessing Ethereum’S Diversification Role With Bitcoin And Major Equity Index – A Bayesian Mixture Copula Approach, Jackie Li, Jacie Jia Liu

Research Collection School Of Economics

With the introduction of spot Ethereum ETFs, Ethereum plays an increasingly important role in the cryptocurrency market. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian modelling framework incorporating a mixture copula for co-modelling Ethereum returns with Bitcoin or FTSE 100 returns. The mixture copula is designed as a combination of the Clayton copula and its three rotations, Frank, and Gaussian copulas. It provides substantial flexibility for handling a variety of dependency structures. The Bayesian approach offers the advantage of jointly estimating both the margins and copulas and simulating future returns in a coherent procedure. Using 10 different risk or risk-return measures, …

Uncovering Mild Drift In Asset Prices With Intraday High-Frequency Data, Shuping Shi, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Asset prices are commonly represented as a drift-diffusion process, wherein the drift component denotes the anticipated return of the asset within some time frame, while the diffusion component accommodates random shocks. The drift component has substantial practical significance but accurate estimation is typically challenging and has met with limited success in the existing literature except over large time spans. This paper explores a comprehensive range of drift-diffusion models that include constant, linear, trending, and bursting drift. Conditions are identified under which realized squared drift  is a reliable tool for gauging integrated squared drift when the time span Tn is large …

Differential Impact Of Admission Type And Clinical Complexity On Diabetes Hospitalization Costs Among African American And Hispanic Patients In Southeastern Virginia, Ismail El Moudden, Asra Amidi, Reem Sharaf-Alddin, Michael C. Bittner, Qi Zhang

Department of Obstetrics & Gynecology Faculty Publications

Background

Diabetes mellitus (DM) imposes substantial healthcare costs with documented disparities among African Americans and Hispanic patients. To inform care delivery and resource allocation, this study identified hospitalization cost predictors among African American and Hispanic patients with diabetes in Southeastern Virginia.

Methods

We analyzed 6,011 hospital discharges from the Virginia Health Information database (2016-2020) for adults aged 18-85 with diabetes. Discharges were classified by Medicare Severity Diagnosis-Related Groups: DM with complications/comorbidities (DCC, n = 3,328), DM with major complications/comorbidities (DMCC, n = 1,518), and DM without major complications/comorbidities (DWO, n = 1,165). Because cost distributions were right-skewed (skewness 3.5-8.24), we …

A New Functional Setting For Term Structure Modeling Using The Health-Jarrow-Morton Framework, Michael Pokojovy, Ebenezer Nkum, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr.

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

The well-known Heath–Jarrow–Morton (HJM) framework provides a universal and efficacious instrument for modeling the stochastic evolution of an entire yield curve by explaining the interest rate dynamics in continuous time under no-arbitrage conditions. Existing implementations involve exponentially weighted function spaces as theoretical settings for the former stochastic evolution. While the choice of weight can have a drastic effect on model calibration and subsequent forecasting, it cannot be estimated from market data and does not allow for any objective interpretation. The proposed approach does not have this shortcoming as it adopts a suitably designed unweighted function space. The HJM equation is …

Strategic Peer Region Selection For Economic Development, Xiaobing Shuai, Riley Ford

School of Professional and Continuing Studies Faculty Publications

Benchmarking against peer and aspirational regions is essential for economic development because it provides meaningful context for evaluating performance and shaping strategy. These comparisons help highlight regional advantages that attract new investments, as well as uncover gaps that may represent opportunities for future growth. ...

This article provides a practical, data-driven framework that economic development organizations can use to identify peer and aspirational regions, strengthen benchmarking efforts, and support strategy development. A case study illustrates how this can be applied to better interpret economic indicators and inform decision-making. For EDOs, this approach offers a more consistent way to evaluate competitiveness, …

When Prices Spike: Identifying Excessive Volatility In Fertilizer Markets, Feng Yao, Manuel A. Hernandez

Economics Faculty Working Papers Series

Sharp and volatile fertilizer price movements can hinder adoption and reduce agricultural productivity, especially among vulnerable smallholders. Using a nonparametric location-scale approach to model price returns, we quantify the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) - the high return threshold exceeded with low probability - to identify excessive price spikes in potash, urea, and di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) markets. We use the bias-corrected estimator from Martins-Filho et al. (2018) and propose a simpler estimator based on Hill (1975). Backtesting results indicate superior performance of the Hill-based estimator, supporting its value as a convenient method for detecting unusual fertilizer price surges amid recurring global volatility.

Nonparametric Estimation Of Smooth Coefficients In Fixed-Effect Panel Data Models, Taining Wang, Feng Yao, Jun Cai

Economics Faculty Working Papers Series

We propose a kernel-based nonparametric estimator for a smooth coefficient panel data model with fixed effects. Without requiring a zero sum of fixed effects, we propose an estimator that is easy to construct and computationally efficient. Eliminating the fixed effects through a local within transformation, we perform a local linear estimation for the coefficient functions associated with time varying variables and associated derivatives. We further estimate the intercept coefficient function, if present, through a difference of kernel weighted averages. We characterize the estimator’s asymptotic properties under a large-n and large-T framework. We demonstrate that the estimator is not asymptotically equivalent …

Smu Launches Resilient Workforces Institute To Strengthen Singapore’S Workforce In The Age Of Ai, Singapore Management University

SMU Press Releases and News

Singapore Management University (SMU) announced the launch of the Resilient Workforces Institute (ResWORK), a new university-level research institute advancing workforce resilience and lifelong learning amid accelerating technological change. It is among the first institutes in Singapore and the region to jointly study adult-learning and the future of work through an integrated, interdisciplinary lens spanning economics, management, behavioural science and technology.

(Wp 2026-01) Du Bois And Veblen's Concepts Of Relative Position: Common Ground Or Stratification Economics And Institutionalist Economics, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

W. E. B. Du Bois and Thorstein Veblen employed the concept of relative position. Du Bois' thinking reflects how for Stratification economics people's relative positions explain racial discrimination and segregation. Veblen reflects how for Institutionalist economics people's relative positions explain the role institutions have in the evolution of the economy. Racism in the US marginalized Du Bois' contributions, leaving a divide between his and Veblen's thinking and also between Stratification economics and Institutionalist economics. This has limited the perceived importance of the concept of relative position in economics, leaving it with the 'position-less' asocial individualism of Neoclassical-mainstream economics. This paper …

Do Major Customers Affect Firms' Environmental, Social And Governance Activities?, Feng Dong, John A. Doukas, Stephanie Walton, Rongyao Gloria Zhang, Yiyang Zhang

Finance Faculty Publications

We examine the role of major customers in shaping firms' environmental, social and governance (ESG) practices. We find that firms with major customer relationships undertake fewer ESG activities compared to those without such ties. The association is attenuated when institutional ownership is high, firms are less diversified, customers exhibit greater bankruptcy risk and lower switching costs and during periods of elevated equity market sentiment. Taken together, our findings highlight that reliance on a concentrated customer base can weaken firms’ incentives to engage in ESG practices, with important implications for supply chain sustainability.

International Evidence On The Relationship Between Financial Literacy And Corporate Cash Holdings, Kenneth Yung, Reza Kahibavil, Su Li, Arian Amidi

Finance Faculty Publications

This study is the first investigation of the relationship between corporate cash holdings and financial literacy (FL). We find that a one‐standard‐deviation increase in FL is associated with an 8%–27% reduction in corporate cash holdings, depending on the measure of FL used. Moreover, higher FL reduces the market value of excess cash, indicating that financially literate environments discourage value‐destroying cash accumulation. The results remain robust across alternative definitions of FL and cash holdings, estimation methods, and country subsamples. We further rule out the influence of endogeneity, refinancing risk, and variation in cash needs. Additional analyses identify agency costs as the …

Natural Resource Rents And Energy Poverty Nexus In Next Eleven Economies, Muhammad Salah Uddin, Ayub Ali, Zobayer Ahmed, Md Nasir Uddin Sikdar, Ahsan Habib, Abdullah Elah Al-Mahde

Finance Faculty Publications

Energy poverty (EP) remains a persistent global challenge with important implications for economic development, public health, and social welfare. While natural resources, particularly oil and gas, are often viewed as key sources of energy access, their effectiveness in mitigating EP remains underexplored in emerging economies. This study examines the relationship between natural resource rents (NRR), specifically oil rents (OR) and natural gas rents (NGR), and energy poverty (EP) in the Next Eleven (N-11) countries from 2000 to 2020. The primary objective is to assess how NRR influences EP at various levels of poverty using the Method of Moments Quantile Regression …

How Operational And Disclosure Complexity Shapes The Conglomerate Discount, Feng Dong, John A. Doukas, Son Wilson, Rongyao Zhang

Finance Faculty Publications

This study examines how firm operational diversification and disclosure complexity jointly drive the conglomerate discount. We disentangle disclosure complexity, which is determined by managerially influenced financial transparency, from accounting complexity, which is a direct informational consequence of operational complexity. We find that operational diversification is consistently associated with significant conglomerate discounts, while disclosure complexity independently reduces firm value and amplifies the magnitude of the discount when diversification is high. These findings suggest that transparent disclosures can mitigate valuation costs, offering important implications for managers seeking effective communication, investors assessing complex firms, and policymakers aiming to enhance disclosure quality and market …

Ceo-Employee Pay Ratio Disclosure And Dividend Policy, Rajib Chowdhury, John A. Doukas

Finance Faculty Publications

We examine whether and how the magnitude of the CEO pay ratio affects dividend policy in the context of inequality-averse investors. Our results demonstrate a positive association between the two and remain robust to endogeneity concerns. We find that the CEO pay ratios positively affect dividends irrespective of whether CEO compensation contracts motivate risk-averse or risk-taking policy choices. This non-diverse effect on dividend policy across CEOs with different pay structures contradicts previous studies and highlights the wealth effect resulting from the SEC mandate. Further analyses reveal a negative effect of the pay ratio on cash holdings and investment inefficiency.

The Origins And Expansion Of The Soviet Union’S Military-Industrial Complex, Noah B. Heminger

All Master's Theses

This thesis explores the way in which the “Soviet Military-Industrial Complex” that dominated the Soviet Union’s economy in the latter half of its existence came into existence and what forces caused its expansion. The first force was the ideological and strategic beliefs and assumptions of the leadership and military planners which held that the USSR would always be in existential danger. The second was Stalin’s “Revolution from Above” which broke down the barriers economically and politically that resisted the militarization of politics, economics, and society. And the final force was the stresses of World War II which caused the Soviet …

Financial Literacy And Inclusion Of Philippine Jeepney And Tricycle Drivers, Bryan N. Bernabe, Jyro B. Triviño

Leadership and Strategy Faculty Publications

The study investigated how the different elements of financial literacy influence the financial inclusion of jeepney and tricycle drivers in Caloocan, Metro Manila. Pearson correlation analysis revealed a positive correlation between financial inclusion and attitude, behavior, knowledge, and skills. Additionally, analysis of variance highlighted that education and age play significant roles in enhancing financial literacy. The linear regression findings also supported the idea that income acts as a positive moderator, augmenting the impact of financial literacy on financial inclusion. The study attempted to disaggregate its financial literacy components to understand their impact on financial inclusion, but its interrelationships also require …

Tourism And Quality Of Life In Montana: A Longitudinal Study Of Resident Attitudes 2012-2023, Sophie Morris, Melissa Weddell, Carter Bermingham, Megan Schultz

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

Montana’s outdoor recreation and tourism industries have experienced steady growth over the past decade. This report explores how that expansion has shaped residents’ perceptions of tourism. Drawing on data from Montana residents, we track changes in attitudes from 2012 to 2023 on key issues, including overcrowding, the balance between tourism’s benefits and its impacts, quality of life, and the state’s role in promoting tourism.

The State Of Short-Term Rentals – 2024, Elena Bigart, Melissa Weddell, Jesse Wheeler, Sophie Morris, Jenna Asnault

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

This report examined the role short-term rentals (STRs) play in Montana’s housing challenges, building on earlier ITRR research (Bigart et al., 2021). Using a mixed-methods approach, the study analyzed STR and housing data from 2019 to 2023 and incorporated interviews with local officials to assess evolving regulations, occupancy patterns, and perceptions of STR impacts. Findings highlight that STRs interact with broader market forces contributing to tight housing conditions and underscore the need for balanced policy approaches that support housing supply and affordability while sustaining tourism-related economic activity.

Monetary Policy And Equity Market Reactions: Linking Monetary Theory To Sector Level Etf Performance, Joseph Freedman

Research Honors

This project examines how the economic framework of U.S. monetary policy translates into financial market outcomes by studying sector level equity responses to changes in the Federal Reserve’s effective federal funds rate. While monetary policy theory emphasizes how interest rates influence investment, borrowing costs and risk taking, financial markets reflect these mechanisms through asset prices. Exchange traded funds provide a useful lens for studying this connection, as they aggregate firm level behavior into tradable sector portfolios.

Using daily data from 2004 to 2025, this study analyzes eleven S&P 500 sector exchange traded funds to evaluate how monetary policy shocks are …

Visit Complexity Differs Between Scarring And Nonscarring Alopecia: A 5-Year Dataderm Analysis, Ian Noel Encarnacion, Noelle Desir, Nicholas Schell, Apoorva Mehta, Temitayo Ogunleye, Susan Taylor

Department of Medicine Faculty Publications

[Introduction] Accurate coding is a critical component of dermatologic practice, influencing reimbursement and documentation of clinical complexity. Although alopecia has significant psychosocial and financial burdens, Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) coding patterns in alopecia management remain largely understudied. Our population-level study using the American Academy of Dermatology's DataDerm clinical registry¹ evaluates alopecia CPT coding trends, pre-2021 and post-2021 evaluation and management (E/M) CPT coding updates,² aiming to inform coding practices and visit complexity, which have significant reimbursement implications.

Dampak Program Pembangkit Listrik 35.000 Mw Terhadap Tingkat Pekerjaan Dan Kemiskinan Di Indonesia, Yohanes Dwi Anggoro, Jahen Fachrul Rezki

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

This research analyzes the 35,000 MW Program’s impact on employment and poverty levels in Indonesia using the Callaway and Sant’Anna Difference-in-Differences (CSDID) method. The research uses panel data at the district/city level from 2007 to 2022. The analysis shows the program has a significant impact on reducing poverty, with an average reduction of 5,208 poor people in Model 1; 4,277 people in Model 2; and 4,284 people in Model 3. Based on a subset of regions, the analysis shows the program had a significant impact on increasing the employment rate by 1.2 percent, reducing 16,034 poor people in the Java-Madura-Bali.