Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

A Model Of Crisis Management, Fei Li, Jidong Zhou

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We propose a model of how multiple societies respond to a common crisis. A government faces a “damned-either-way” policy-making dilemma: aggressive intervention contains the crisis, but the resulting good outcome makes people skeptical of the costly response; light intervention worsens the crisis and causes the government to be faulted for not doing enough. This dilemma can be mitigated for the society that encounters the crisis first if another society faces the same crisis afterward. Our model predicts that the later society does not necessarily perform better despite having more information, while the earlier society might benefit from a dynamic counterfactual …

The Likelihood Of Regional Triggers Under The Industry’S Proposed “75% Rule”, Elliott James Dennis

Extension Farm and Ranch Management News

First two paragraphs:

Concern about packing concentration has led to numerous requests for USDA to investigate the potential connection between packet concentration and depressed cattle prices. These calls for investigations and concerns about meatpacking concentration and impact on cattle prices are not new. The most recent concern raised by cattle producers about packer concentration was due to depressed fed cattle prices post-Holcomb fire and COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a USDA report and pending DOJ investigation.

Some legislation has been enacted as a result of previous investigations; most notably the Packers and Stockyards Act in the early 1920s. The recently proposed …

Income In The Off-Season: Household Adaptation To Yearly Work Interruptions, John Coglianese, Brendan M. Price

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

The Economy, The Stock Market, And A Bucket Of Chicken, Timothy Meyer

Cornhusker Economics

Economists, unlike MDs and lawyers, are never able to sidestep professional questions. Whether it is at parties, or waiting to pick up kids from school, the “economy” is al-most as common as the weather for small talk. Fortunately, most economists are eager to opine on the current state of affairs, and almost as many are willing to guide laypeople to a truer understanding of what the “economy” actually is. This article will provide a definition of the economy, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and their importance. It will conclude by addressing the difference between the overall economy and the performance …

Income In The Off-Season: Household Adaptation To Yearly Work Interruptions, John Coglianese, Brendan M. Price

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Joblessness is highly seasonal. To analyze how households adapt to seasonal joblessness, we introduce a measure of seasonal work interruptions premised on the idea that a seasonal worker will tend to exit employment around the same time each year. We show that an excess share of prime-age U.S. workers experience recurrent separations spaced exactly 12 months apart. These separations coincide with aggregate seasonal downturns and are concentrated in seasonally volatile industries. Examining workers most prone to seasonal work interruptions, we find that these workers incur large earnings losses during the off-season. Lost earnings are 1) driven mainly by repeated separations …

House Price Changes In The Mountain West, 1991-2020, Katie M. Gilbertson, Kristian Thymianos, Eshaan Vakil, Caitlin Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Housing & Real Estate

This fact sheet measures the average price change in single-family house prices in Mountain West states and metropolitan areas. This fact sheet utilizes data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) tool to show quarterly and yearly trends as far back as 1991 to 2020.

The Chow Test With Time Series-Cross Section Data, James K. Binkley, Jeffrey Young

Faculty & Staff Research and Creative Activity

The Chow test is a standard method to test for differences in regression response across groups. In some cases, the groups being tested are composed of a time series of cross sections. If the individual units within the groups have systematic differences, the Chow test is compromised: individual and group effects become confounded. This can cause rejections in the absence of the group effect of interest. We illustrate the problem with Monte Carlo analyses, and propose an alternative bootstrap-like testing procedure that helps eliminate excessive Type I errors.

Cash Transfers As A Response To Covid-19: A Randomized Experiment In Kenya, Wyatt Brooks, Kevin Donovan, Terence Johnson, Jackline Oluoch-Aridi

Discussion Papers

We deliver an unconditional cash transfer equal to one month’s average profit to a randomly selected group of Kenyan female microenterprise owners in May 2020 at the outset of exponential growth in COVID-19 cases. Firm profit, inventory spending, and food expenditures increased relative to a control group. Entrepreneurs recovered about one third of the profit lost during the crisis. The transfers caused greater business activity by inducing previously closed businesses to re-open. PPE spending and precautionary management practices increase to mitigate this effect, but only among those who perceive major health risk from COVID-19. The results suggest cash transfers promoted …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- December 2020, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Well-Being Indicators, Social Globalization, And Unaccompanied Child Migration From Central America, Lucia Farriss

Dissertations

This research investigates the effect of well-being indictors and social globalization on the migration of Unaccompanied Alien Children (UAC) from Central America. The purpose of this study is to determine whether the surge in UAC that began in 2014 at the United States southern border is driven primarily by violence, or whether other factors are at play. Using data for the period 2008-2018, the apprehension of UAC serves as a proxy for measuring unaccompanied child migration to the United States. The four countries of focus are El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Mexico as they contribute the largest numbers of child …

Causality Analysis Of Disaggregated Fdi Inflows On Sectorial Growth In Oecd Area, Lawrence Ogbeifun, Olatunji Abdul Shobande

Faculty and Student Publications

This article revisits the link between disaggregated Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows and sectorial growth using the panel dataset of 25 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries for the period 1990 to 2017. It adopted the panel fixed effect and Feasible Generalized Least Squares Approach in its analysis. The findings show that disaggregated FDI inflows have the potential to improve growth in the OECD area with adverse effects on domestic investment and inflationary pressure. Additionally, the results further indicate that disaggregated FDI inflows have a positive and significant relationship on the service and manufacturing sector but with no …

Local Dominance, Emiliano Catonini, Jingyi Xue

SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series

We define a local notion of weak dominance that speaks to the true choice problems among actions in a game tree and does not necessarily require to plan optimally for the future. A strategy is (globally) weakly dominant if and only if it prescribes a locally weakly dominant action at every decision node it reaches, and in this case local weak dominance is characterized by a (wishful-thinking) condition that requires no forward planning. From this local perspective, we identify form of contingent reasoning that are particularly natural, despite the absence of an obviously dominant strategy (Li, 2017). Following this approach, …

The Effect Of Robo-Advisor On Investors' Trading Behavior, Shaowei Shen

Fordham Dissertations and Theses

Robo-advisors have surged in popularity in recent years and have been attracting more and more attention from both academia and industry. In this paper, we examine the factors that attribute to investors’ decision to adopt Robo-advisor and test how Robo-advisor affects investors’ trading behavior by using a unique account-level dataset from a major China’s financial institution.

We first compare the characteristics of users and non-users of Robo-advisor. We show that investors with more diversified portfolios and less assets under management, and female investors are more likely to invest in …

Point Optimal Testing With Roots That Are Functionally Local To Unity, Anna Bykhovskaya, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Limit theory for regressions involving local to unit roots (LURs) is now used extensively in time series econometric work, establishing power properties for unit root and cointegration tests, assisting the construction of uniform confidence intervals for autoregressive coefficients, and enabling the development of methods robust to departures from unit roots. The present paper shows how to generalize LUR asymptotics to cases where the localized departure from unity is a time varying function rather than a constant. Such a functional local unit root (FLUR) model has much greater generality and encompasses many cases of additional interest that appear in practical work, …

On Strategy-Proofness And The Salience Of Single-Peakedness In A Private Goods Economy, Shurojit Chatterji, Masso Jordi, Serizawa Shigehiro

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider strategy-proof rules operating on a rich domain of preference profiles in a set up where multiple private goods have to be assigned to a set of agents with entitlements where preferences display satiation. We show that if the rule is in addition "desirable", in that it is tops-only, continuous, same-sided and individually rational with respect to the entitlements, then the preferences in the domain have to satisfy a variant of single-peakedness (referred to as smilattice single-peakedness). We also provide a converse of this main finding. It turns our that this domain coincides with the one already identified in …

Decomposing Duration Dependence: Skill Depreciation Vs. Statistical Discrimination, Ismail Baydur, Jianhuan Xu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops a random matching model with unobserved worker heterogeneity and learning about worker types from unemployment duration. The model features negative duration dependence that stems from unobserved heterogeneity as well as statistical discrimination and skill depreciation. We estimate our model using micro-level data from Current Population Survey (CPS) and we decompose the contribution of each channel to job finding rates by duration. We find that shutting down statistical discrimination substantially increases the job finding rates of the long-term unemployed while skill depreciation mainly affects the medium-term unemployed.

Three Essays On International Financial And Monetary Interactions, Kemal Burak Bekircan

Dissertations

This dissertation develops three essays on safe haven currency behavior and international monetary interactions.

Essay one notes the dramatic appreciation of the U.S. dollar vis-à-vis all world currencies, along with its reversal after a year on the account of the Great Recession. This paper investigates bilateral U.S. dollar exchange rate movements during and in the aftermath of the Great Recession. I find that increasing global market uncertainty has a significant and consistent effect in strengthening of the U.S. dollar. This striking finding suggests flight-to-safety phenomenon of foreign investors, and repatriation of capital flows to the United States by the U.S. …

Revolving Versus Convenience Use Of Credit Cards: Evidence From U.S. Credit Bureau Data, Scott Fulford, Scott Schuh

Economics Faculty Working Papers Series

Credit card payments and revolving debt are important for consumer theory but a key data source — credit bureau records — does not distinguish between current charges and revolving debt from the previous month. We develop a theory-based econometric methodology informed by survey evidence to estimate the likelihood a consumer is revolving each quarter. We validate our approach using a new survey linked to credit bureau data. For likely revolvers: (1) 100 percent of an increase in credit becomes an increase in debt eventually; (2) credit limit changes are half as salient as debt changes; and (3) revolving status is …

Productivity Loss Associated With Functional Disability In A Contemporary Small-Scale Subsistence Population, Jonathan Stieglitz, Paul L. Hooper, Benjamin C. Trumble, Hillard Kaplan, Michael D. Gurven

ESI Publications

In comparative cross-species perspective, humans experience unique physical impairments with potentially large consequences. Quantifying the burden of impairment in subsistence populations is critical for understanding selection pressures underlying strategies that minimize risk of production deficits. We examine among forager-horticulturalists whether compromised bone strength (indicated by fracture and lower bone mineral density, BMD) is associated with subsistence task cessation. We also estimate the magnitude of productivity losses associated with compromised bone strength. Fracture is associated with cessation of hunting, tree chopping, and walking long distances, but not tool manufacture. Age-specific productivity losses from hunting cessation associated with fracture and lower BMD …

Impact Of Aml/Cft Regulations On Digital Disruptions (Fintech) And Financial Inclusion In Sub-Saharan Africa, David Nkang Odu

Bullion

Financial Technology is becoming paramount in all financial institutions, being utilized in helping companies manage most of their financial operations efficiently through the use of software and specialized algorithms. The future of finance will shine brightest when it provides standard and valuable services to the society, however this will come with its own merits and demerits. I have prepared this report to carry out a detailed discussion on the impact that the AML/CFT controls have on FinTech and the financial inclusion initiative in sub-Saharan Africa. The AML/CFT controls can be applied more effectively in the formal systems for banking and …

Impact Of Tax Revenue On Economic Growth In Nigeria (1981-2017), Abubakar Biliksu Aliyu, A. A. Mustapha

Bullion

The main objective of this research is to assess empirically the impact of tax revenue on economic growth in Nigeria, spanning from 1981 to 2017. It employs, time series data obtained from the CBN statistical bulletins, FIRS annual publications and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) portal. To achieve the objectives of the study, OLS and ARDL techniques were employed to estimate the relationships and the dynamics and longrun effects of independent variables on dependent variable. ARDL bound test revealed that the variables are cointegrated while ARDL long-run estimation indicated that petroleum profit, value added tax and government domestic debt are …

Three Essays On Health Economics, Jihye Kim

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

This thesis focuses on various factors affecting health of American adults and the elderly based on the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). In chapter 1, I examine the role of educational and racial differences in life expectancy (LE) and health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) for Americans at ages 45-64 using Health and Retirement Study (HRS) during 2000-2016. I compute severity-weighted prevalence of diseases with comorbidity adjustments based on the Global Burden of Disease (2015), and map onto the information on 17 doctor-diagnosed diseases and four self-rated disabling health conditions from HRS. This approach allows us to evaluate the importance of major …

The Drug Overdose Epidemic Seen Through Different Lenses, Barbara Blake Gonzalez, Richard Cebula, James V. Koch

Economics Faculty Publications

The age-adjusted death rate from drug overdoses in the United States per 100,000 individuals rose from 6.8 in 2010 to 17.1 in 2018. The most common explanation offered is the deaths of despair hypothesis. We identify additional factors that have contributed to the rise in drug overdose deaths in cities and counties. Methods: We utilize a period fixed effects model with a multi-variate panel data set for 94 independent cities and counties in Virginia for the period 2008 through 2017. Results: The drug overdose mortality rate is: (a) an increasing function (prob.

Trading Regularity And Fund Performance: Evidence In Uncertain Markets, Lin Tong, Zhe Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

High trading regularity funds outperform low trading regularity funds more during periods of low market returns and greater market and economic uncertainty. Their trading also has strong return predictability on stock returns during periods of greater uncertainty. They trade more around news events, and their news related trading predicts stock return stronger during periods of greater uncertainty. They also profit from liquidity provision in highly uncertain market environment. Overall our evidence suggests that high trading regularity funds trade more frequently during periods of high uncertainty when information production and processing skill is more valuable and when the demand for liquidity …

He, She, We: Gender Impacts In Teamwork, Arlene J. Nicholas

Faculty and Staff - Articles & Papers

It is well known that organizational teams are highly valued in work settings (Marquis, 2019). Some research has shown gender differences such as "team collaboration is greatly improved by the presence of women in the group" (Baer & Woolley, 2011). Other studies support mixed gender teams as advantageous (Sachiko & Takeda, 2014). This paper will review the perceptions of gender contributions in teams from the literature and report on a study of current business students in a liberal arts university. Some comparisons are made to the author's 2017 survey on gender effects in team projects in the same school.

Paso Del Norte Economic Indicator Review, December, Hunt Institute For Global Competitiveness

Technical Reports

No abstract provided.

Technical Efficiency Of Public Middle Schools In New York City, William C. Horrace, Michah W. Rothbart, Yi Yang

Center for Policy Research

Using panel data and a “true” fixed effect stochastic frontier model, we estimate persistent and transient technical inefficiency in mathematics (Math) and English Language Arts (ELA) test score gains in NYC public middle schools from 2014 to 2016. We compare several measures of transient technical inefficiency and show that around 58% of NYC middle schools are efficient in Math gains, while 16% are efficient in ELA gains. Multivariate inference techniques are used to determine subsets of efficient schools, providing actionable decision rules to help policymakers target resources and incentives.

Economic Impact Study: Grand Rapids Public Museum Proposed Redesign And Expansion, Christian Glupker, Paul Isley, Julie Cowie, Grand Valley State University

Other Faculty Publications

The Grand Rapids Public Museum (GRPM) has formalized a proposal to renovate and expand the current building (built in 1994). The proposed redesign and expansion include:

• A $39.8M addition to the south end of the building;
• Expanding rental space to accommodate larger groups and allow multiple events simultaneously;
• Different pricing strategies for each floor of the museum.

Impact Of Financial Deepening On Socio-Economic Development In Nigeria: 1991 - 2018, Igonibo Dumoteim Abili

Bullion

This study investigates the relationship between financial deepening and socioeconomic development in Nigeria. The specific objectives examined the impacts of broad money supply, private sector credit and financial openness on human development index in Nigeria from 1991 to 2018. Time series data on each of the variables were analyzed using Fully Modified Least Squares and Granger Causality test. The unit root test results revealed that all the variables in the model became stationary after first difference and are all I (1). The cointegration test result revealed that the variables had long run relationships. The cointegrating regression result indicated that broad …

The Role Of Agriculture In The Economic Diversification Of The Nigerian Economy: (1980 – 2016), Adamu Hassan Muhammad, Tahir Hussaini Mairiga, Iliya Ayuba Thompson, Usman Ismaeel Bello

Bullion

This study empirically examines the role of agriculture in the diversification of the Nigerian economy, using time series data from 1980–2016. Estimation results using Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Technique indicate that agricultural output has a positive relationship and significant impact with non-oil exports (NOE) and that non-oil revenue has a positive relationship with non-oil exports (NOE). It was recommended that, government should endeavor to increase agricultural productivity by improving its expenditure on the sector so as to enhance the growth of the economy. Government should also increase its non-oil revenue and revive the sector through sufficient budgetary allocation and …