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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Fully Modified Least Squares For Multicointegrated Systems, Igor Kheifets, Peter C.B. Phillips
Fully Modified Least Squares For Multicointegrated Systems, Igor Kheifets, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Multicointegration is traditionally defined as a particular long run relationship among variables in a parametric vector autoregressive model that introduces links between these variables and partial sums of the equilibrium errors. This paper departs from the parametric model, using a semiparametric formulation that reveals the explicit role that singularity of the long run conditional covariance matrix plays in determining multicointegration. The semiparametric framework has the advantage that short run dynamics do not need to be modeled and estimation by standard techniques such as fully modified least squares (FM-OLS) on the original I(1) system is straightforward. The paper derives FM-OLS limit …
Contributions Of Agriculture, Smesand Non-Smes Toward Povertyreduction In Bangladesh, Prashanta K. Banerjee, Matiur Rahman
Contributions Of Agriculture, Smesand Non-Smes Toward Povertyreduction In Bangladesh, Prashanta K. Banerjee, Matiur Rahman
International Review of Business and Economics
This paper studies the contributions of bank-based financing to agriculture, SMEs and non-SMEs in the overall poverty reduction in Bangladesh. Annual data are used from 1980 to 2015. ARDL bounds testing approach is applied for evidence of cointegration among the variables and VECM is subsequently estimated. The empirical results show that financing of non-SMEs significantly reduces overall poverty in the long run. To this effect, SMEs play a marginal role in the current state of affairs. In contrast, agricultural financing reveals, otherwise.
Organic Wheat Prices And Premium Uncertainty: Can Cross Hedging And Forecasting Play A Role?, Tatiana Drugova, Veronica F. Pozo, Kynda R. Curtis, T. Randall Fortenbery
Organic Wheat Prices And Premium Uncertainty: Can Cross Hedging And Forecasting Play A Role?, Tatiana Drugova, Veronica F. Pozo, Kynda R. Curtis, T. Randall Fortenbery
Applied Economics Faculty Publications
We compare the volatility of organic wheat prices to that of conventional wheat prices using historical measures. To reduce uncertainty, we examine the possibility of cross hedging using conventional wheat futures and the ability of futures to forecast the organic premium. Results provide evidence that conventional futures can be used to cross hedge organic wheat price risk, but results depend on the method used to impute the missing values. We also find a long-run equilibrium relationship between organic wheat prices and conventional wheat futures prices. Finally, futures prices contain some information useful in predicting organic prices in the short run.
The Micro-Foundations Of An Open Economy Money Demand: An Application To Central And Eastern European Countries, Claudiu T. Albulescu, Dominique Pepin, Stephen M. Miller
The Micro-Foundations Of An Open Economy Money Demand: An Application To Central And Eastern European Countries, Claudiu T. Albulescu, Dominique Pepin, Stephen M. Miller
Economics Faculty Publications
This paper investigates the effect of currency substitution between the currencies of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries and the euro on CEE money demand functions. In addition, we develop a model with microeconomic foundations, which identifies the difference between currency substitution and money demand sensitivity to exchange rate variations. More precisely, we posit that currency substitution relates to the money demand sensitivity to interest rate spreads between CEE countries and the euro area. Moreover, we show how the exchange rate affects money demand absent a currency substitution effect. This model applies to any country in which an international currency …
Econometric Estimates Of Earth's Transient Climate Sensitivity, Peter C. B. Phillips, Thomas Leirvik, Trude Storelvmo
Econometric Estimates Of Earth's Transient Climate Sensitivity, Peter C. B. Phillips, Thomas Leirvik, Trude Storelvmo
Research Collection School Of Economics
How sensitive is Earth's climate to a given increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations? This long-standing question in climate science was recently analyzed by dynamic panel data methods using extensive spatio-temporal data of global surface temperatures, solar radiation, and GHG concentrations over the last half century to 2010 (Storelvmo et al, 2016). Those methods revealed that atmospheric aerosol effects masked approximately one-third of the continental warming due to increasing GHG concentrations over this period, thereby implying greater climate sensitivity to GHGs than previously thought. The present study provides regularity conditions and asymptotic theory justifying the use of time series …