Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Long-Term Relationship Of Kghm Share Prices And The Market Value Of High Grade Copper, Rafał Zbyrowski

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

The aim of the article is to try to explain the long-term price volatility of KGHM shares. Therefore the paper presents the relationship between KGHM stock prices and High Grade copper prices. The empirical part of the paper uses econometric cointegration analysis. Based on the estimated models, the thesis of the existence of a long-run relationship between the studied variables was confi rmed. Within the framework of econometric analyses, Johansen and Engle- Granger procedures and the Granger test of causality were applied. The study was conducted using monthly data covering quotes from August 2012 to April 2021. In the end, …

Learning By Doing, Productivity, And Growth: New Evidence On The Link Between Micro And Macro Data, Brad Humphreys, Scott Schuh, Corey Williams

Economics Faculty Working Papers Series

No abstract provided.

High-Dimensional Iv Cointegration Estimation And Inference, Peter C. B. Phillips, Igor L. Kheifets

Research Collection School Of Economics

A semiparametric triangular systems approach shows how multicointegrating linkages occur naturally in an I(1) cointegrated regression model when the long run error variance matrix in the system is singular. Under such singularity, cointegrated I(1) systems embody a multicointegrated structure that makes them useful in many empirical settings. Earlier work shows that such systems may be analyzed and estimated without appealing to the associated I(2) system but with suboptimal convergence rates and potential asymptotic bias. The present paper develops a robust approach to estimation and inference of such systems using high dimensional IV methods that have appealing asymptotic properties like those …

Impact Of Oil Price And Its Volatility On Cpi Of Pakistan: Bivariate Egarch Model, Abida Naurin

CBER Conference

The current research study targets to explore the impact of oil price and its volatility on CPI in case of Pakistan from the period 1980:M1 to 2018:M12. In this study we used the financial time series econometrics techniques; first applied the Box-Cox transformation on the data which suggested log transformation is required for all series.

New Asymptotics Applied To Functional Coefficient Regression And Climate Sensitivity Analysis, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Ying Wang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A general asymptotic theory is established for sample cross moments of nonstationary time series, allowing for long range dependence and local unit roots. The theory provides a substantial extension of earlier results on nonparametric regression that include near-cointegrated nonparametric regression as well as spurious nonparametric regression. Many new models are covered by the limit theory, among which are functional coefficient regressions in which both regressors and the functional covariate are nonstationary. Simulations show finite sample performance matching well with the asymptotic theory and having broad relevance to applications, while revealing how dual nonstationarity in regressors and covariates raises sensitivity to …

Fully Modified Least Squares Cointegrating Parameter Estimation In Multicointegrated Systems, Igor L. Kheifets, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Multicointegration is traditionally defined as a particular long run relationship among variables in a parametric vector autoregressive model that introduces additional cointegrating links between these variables and partial sums of the equilibrium errors. This paper departs from the parametric model, using a semiparametric formulation that reveals the explicit role that singularity of the long run conditional covariance matrix plays in determining multicointegration. The semiparametric framework has the advantage that short run dynamics do not need to be modeled and estimation by standard techniques such as fully modified least squares (FM-OLS) on the original system is straightforward. The paper derives FM-OLS …

Financial Inclusion And Monetary Policy - Investigating The Relationship Between Financial Inclusion And Monetary Policy: The Case Of Egypt, Salma Maher

Theses and Dissertations

In the past decade, financial inclusion has become an issue of increasing importance to developing nations. This is due to its perceived effects on poverty alleviation, sustainable growth and enhancing monetary policy effectiveness. Unfortunately, there is little empirical research on the effects of financial inclusion. The thesis hopes to contribute to the literature by inspecting the relationship between financial utilization indices and monetary policy in Egypt. The thesis utilizes quarterly data on outstanding deposits and loans from 2004 to 2020 as well as a VAR model – supplemented with an ARDL model – to test the aforementioned relationship. The thesis …

On Multicointegration, Peter C. B. Phillips, Igor Kheifets

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A semiparametric triangular systems approach shows how multicointegration can occur naturally in an I(1) cointegrated regression model. The framework reveals the source of multicointegration as singularity of the long run error covariance matrix in an I(1) system, a feature noted but little explored in earlier work. Under such singularity, cointegrated I(1) systems embody a multicointegrated structure and may be analyzed and estimated without appealing to the associated I(2) system but with consequential asymptotic properties that can introduce asymptotic bias into conventional methods of cointegrating regression. The present paper shows how estimation of such systems may be accomplished under multicointegration without …

The Contribution Of Mining Sector To Sustainable Development In Saudi Arabia, Mourad Zmami, Ousama Ben-Salha, Sultan O. Almarshad, Houyem Chekki

Journal of Sustainable Mining

The mining sector development is among the priorities of the Saudi Vision 2030. There is currently a lot of interest in the role of the mining sector in Saudi Arabia. This research contributes to this debate by empirically assessing the effects of mining on sustainable development in Saudi Arabia during the period 1980-2018. Unlike many previous studies, the three sustainable development dimensions, namely economic, social, and environmental, are jointly considered. The cointegration analysis, based on the ARDL, Gregory-Hansen, and combined cointegration tests, confirms the existence of long-run relationships between mining and all sustainable development dimensions. Furthermore, the findings lend substantial …

Covid-19: A Black Swan?, Ben M. Uehlinger

Senior Honors Projects, 2020-current

A Black Swan, as termed by Nassim Taleb, is an unexpected, high magnitude event that is often rationalized in hindsight. 9/11 and the Financial Crisis of 2008 are two examples of these tail probability events. Though COVID-19 has been regarded as momentous and unexpected, Taleb does not credit it as a true Black Swan. This paper aims to compare COVID-19 to these recent Black Swans in terms of predictability and significance. Cointegration was tested across 11 major sectors. Further economic indicators were explored with the goal of discussing the broader context of each event. It was concluded that COVID-19 was …

Does Foreign Direct Investment Matter For Industrialisation In Nigeria?, Obianuju Ogochukwu Nnadozie, Lotanna Ernest Emediegwu, Anthony Monye-Emina

Zambia Social Science Journal

This paper employs cointegration and error correction techniques to provide empirical evidence on the dynamic relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and industrialisation in Nigeria for the period 1981-2015. Our findings show that FDI does not have a significant effect on industrialisation in Nigeria either in the short run or the long run. Also, the empirical results reveal that trade significantly harms industrialisation in Nigeria both in the short run and the long run. Our empirical results are, however, not surprising given that FDI inflows into Nigeria have largely been resource-seeking, that is, mainly targeted at the oil sector with …

The Role Of Agriculture In The Economic Diversification Of The Nigerian Economy: (1980 – 2016), Adamu Hassan Muhammad, Tahir Hussaini Mairiga, Iliya Ayuba Thompson, Usman Ismaeel Bello

Bullion

This study empirically examines the role of agriculture in the diversification of the Nigerian economy, using time series data from 1980–2016. Estimation results using Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Technique indicate that agricultural output has a positive relationship and significant impact with non-oil exports (NOE) and that non-oil revenue has a positive relationship with non-oil exports (NOE). It was recommended that, government should endeavor to increase agricultural productivity by improving its expenditure on the sector so as to enhance the growth of the economy. Government should also increase its non-oil revenue and revive the sector through sufficient budgetary allocation and …

Analysis Of The Determinants Of Money Demand In South Africa: 1990-2019, Ali Kole, Hassan N. Wali, Alhassan M. Idris, Ismail H. Sanusi

Bullion

This study estimates real intermediate money demand (RM2) and real broad money demand (RM3) for South Africa from 1990 Q1 to 2019 Q4. The main objective of the study was to explore the relationship between money demand and its determinants in South Africa with specific emphasis on the long-run relationship and stability between RM2, RM3,and their determinants. Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound test for cointegration model developed by Pesaran (2001) was employed. The results found that both RM2 and RM3 are cointegrated with inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate,real GDP, and credit to the private sector in South Africa. Credit …

Copula-Based Time Series With Filtered Nonstationarity, Xiaohong Chen, Zhijie Xiao, Bo Wang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Economic and financial time series data can exhibit nonstationary and nonlinear patterns simultaneously. This paper studies copula-based time series models that capture both patterns. We introduce a procedure where nonstationarity is removed via a filtration, and then the nonlinear temporal dependence in the filtered data is captured via a flexible Markov copula. We propose two estimators of the copula dependence parameters: the parametric (two-step) copula estimator where the marginal distribution of the filtered series is estimated parametrically; and the semiparametric (two-step) copula estimator where the marginal distribution is estimated via a rescaled empirical distribution of the filtered series. We show …

Do Oil Price Returns Impact Exchange Rates Fluctuations: Evidence From The Top Four Oil Importing Countries In Asia – China, India, Japan And South Korea, Alexander Nti

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

Using daily data obtained from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis database, we convert oil price and exchange rates to first difference logarithm to examine the link between oil price and exchange rates. We apply Johansen Cointegration models to examine relationship between the series, and our results indicate the variables are not cointegrated. Augmented Dicky Fuller test indicates that the series are nonstationary at level, but stationary at first difference. Impulse response analysis based on unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) yields varying results for the relationship between oil price and exchange rates across the currencies of the four countries considered. Thus, …

Kernel-Based Inference In Time-Varying Coefficient Cointegrating Regression, Degui Li, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jiti Gao

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies nonlinear cointegrating models with time-varying coefficients and multiple nonstationary regressors using classic kernel smoothing methods to estimate the coefficient functions. Extending earlier work on nonstationary kernel regression to take account of practical features of the data, we allow the regressors to be cointegrated and to embody a mixture of stochastic and deterministic trends, complications which result in asymptotic degeneracy of the kernel-weighted signal matrix. To address these complications new local and global rotation techniques are introduced to transform the covariate space to accommodate multiple scenarios of induced degeneracy. Under regularity conditions we derive asymptotic results that differ …

Relación Entre El Desarrollo Del Sistema Financiero Y El Crecimiento Económico En Colombia, Laura Camila Beltrán Vásquez, Marlin Solange Castillo Antonio, Emma Estefanía Moreno Lombana

Finanzas y Comercio Internacional

Este proyecto investigativo busca analizar la relación entre el desarrollo del sistema financiero y el crecimiento económico en Colombia. Conocer cuál es la relación cobra relevancia, en primer lugar, porque el sistema financiero es de gran importancia para la economía en la medida que provee la liquidez que esta necesita, en segundo lugar, desde la perspectiva del crecimiento económico, esté es una de las principales responsabilidades del gobierno, pues al aumentar la producción se genera un beneficio en el empleo, los recaudos tributarios, el ingreso per cápita entre otros. Para ello se realizaron modelos econométricos multivariados con datos trimestrales para …

Fully Modified Least Squares For Multicointegrated Systems, Igor Kheifets, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Multicointegration is traditionally defined as a particular long run relationship among variables in a parametric vector autoregressive model that introduces links between these variables and partial sums of the equilibrium errors. This paper departs from the parametric model, using a semiparametric formulation that reveals the explicit role that singularity of the long run conditional covariance matrix plays in determining multicointegration. The semiparametric framework has the advantage that short run dynamics do not need to be modeled and estimation by standard techniques such as fully modified least squares (FM-OLS) on the original I(1) system is straightforward. The paper derives FM-OLS limit …

Contributions Of Agriculture, Smesand Non-Smes Toward Povertyreduction In Bangladesh, Prashanta K. Banerjee, Matiur Rahman

International Review of Business and Economics

This paper studies the contributions of bank-based financing to agriculture, SMEs and non-SMEs in the overall poverty reduction in Bangladesh. Annual data are used from 1980 to 2015. ARDL bounds testing approach is applied for evidence of cointegration among the variables and VECM is subsequently estimated. The empirical results show that financing of non-SMEs significantly reduces overall poverty in the long run. To this effect, SMEs play a marginal role in the current state of affairs. In contrast, agricultural financing reveals, otherwise.

Organic Wheat Prices And Premium Uncertainty: Can Cross Hedging And Forecasting Play A Role?, Tatiana Drugova, Veronica F. Pozo, Kynda R. Curtis, T. Randall Fortenbery

Applied Economics Faculty Publications

We compare the volatility of organic wheat prices to that of conventional wheat prices using historical measures. To reduce uncertainty, we examine the possibility of cross hedging using conventional wheat futures and the ability of futures to forecast the organic premium. Results provide evidence that conventional futures can be used to cross hedge organic wheat price risk, but results depend on the method used to impute the missing values. We also find a long-run equilibrium relationship between organic wheat prices and conventional wheat futures prices. Finally, futures prices contain some information useful in predicting organic prices in the short run.

The Micro-Foundations Of An Open Economy Money Demand: An Application To Central And Eastern European Countries, Claudiu T. Albulescu, Dominique Pepin, Stephen M. Miller

Economics Faculty Publications

This paper investigates the effect of currency substitution between the currencies of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries and the euro on CEE money demand functions. In addition, we develop a model with microeconomic foundations, which identifies the difference between currency substitution and money demand sensitivity to exchange rate variations. More precisely, we posit that currency substitution relates to the money demand sensitivity to interest rate spreads between CEE countries and the euro area. Moreover, we show how the exchange rate affects money demand absent a currency substitution effect. This model applies to any country in which an international currency …

Econometric Estimates Of Earth's Transient Climate Sensitivity, Peter C. B. Phillips, Thomas Leirvik, Trude Storelvmo

Research Collection School Of Economics

How sensitive is Earth's climate to a given increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations? This long-standing question in climate science was recently analyzed by dynamic panel data methods using extensive spatio-temporal data of global surface temperatures, solar radiation, and GHG concentrations over the last half century to 2010 (Storelvmo et al, 2016). Those methods revealed that atmospheric aerosol effects masked approximately one-third of the continental warming due to increasing GHG concentrations over this period, thereby implying greater climate sensitivity to GHGs than previously thought. The present study provides regularity conditions and asymptotic theory justifying the use of time series …

Dynamic Panel Modeling Of Climate Change, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We discuss some conceptual and practical issues that arise from the presence of global energy balance effects on station level adjustment mechanisms in dynamic panel regressions with climate data. The paper provides asymptotic analyses, observational data computations, and Monte Carlo simulations to assess the use of various estimation methodologies, including standard dynamic panel regression and cointegration techniques that have been used in earlier research. The findings reveal massive bias in system GMM estimation of the dynamic panel regression parameters, which arise from fixed effect heterogeneity across individual station level observations. Difference GMM and Within Group (WG) estimation have little bias …

An Empirical Study Of Elasticity Of Employment Generated In Micro, Small And Medium Manufacturing Enterprises (Manufacturing Msmes) In India, Nihar Ranjan Jena, Lina R. Thatte

International Review of Business and Economics

World over SMEs are playing a major role in the sphere of socio-economic enhancement of lives of millions. In India, the Micro, Small & Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) contribute 8 per cent to the country’s GDP, 45 per cent to the manufactured output and 40 per cent to the country’s exports. They provide employment to 101 million people through 45 million enterprises. As an employment generator, MSMEs are the second largest employment opportunity provider only behind the agriculture sector. The MSMEs also act as a catalyst for social change by helping reduce the income inequality among various social classes as also …

Testing The Easterlin Paradox: Results And Policy Implications, Edsel L. Beja Jr

Economics Department Faculty Publications

The Easterlin Paradox is about the contradiction between an evidence of a short-run relationship between happiness and income growth and no evidence of a long-run relationship between happiness and income growth. The paper argues that there is confirmation of the Easterlin Paradox when the magnitude of the estimated long-run relationship is practically equal to zero notwithstanding its statistical significance. The findings of the paper support the Easterlin Paradox.

Implications Of Macroeconomic Controls In Ghana, Wisdom Takumah

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Ghana’s desire to achieve sustainable economic growth with relatively stable price level pursue both monetary and fiscal policies that could lead to macroeconomic. This study examines the effects of fiscal and monetary policy on economic growth and determine the level of convergence of growth for Ghana using structural equation modeling (SEM) using time series data from 2008 to 2017. Both short run and long-run results revealed that the ratio of government spending to private investment was statistically significant and it exerted a positive impact on economic growth, an indication that government expenditure is a key channel through which we can …

Nonlinear Ardl Approach And The Housing Market In The U.S., Seyed Hesam Ghodsi

Theses and Dissertations

This study investigates the existence of linear cointegration, nonlinear cointegration or no cointegration between house prices and fundamentals in the U.S. states over the period of 1975Q1-2014Q3. I employ Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model by Pesaran et al. (2001) to test for linear cointegration and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model by Shin et al. (2014) to test for nonlinear cointegration between house prices and fundamentals. Decomposing fundamentals into positive and negative components in the nonlinear ARDL model allows me to study the nature of impacts of income and/or mortgage rates on house prices. By using these methods (ARDL and …

Essays On Inequality And Macroeconomic Stability, Thomas Hauner

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters. . .

Chapter 1: Aggregate Wealth and Its Distribution as Determinants of Financial Crises: Panel Evidence This essay investigates the relationship between wealth inequality and financial crises across a panel of nine advanced economies over the past 100 years. While substantiation of a role for income inequality is ambiguous in the literature, evidence is presented suggesting a unique capacity for the accumulation of assets to increase the likelihood of a future financial crisis episode. Testing long-run panel data with a reduced form, two-way fixed effects model, estimates suggest that increasing wealth inequality, in an …

Kernel-Based Inference In Time-Varying Coefficient Cointegrating Regression, Degui Li, Peter C.B. Phillips, Jiti Gao

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper studies nonlinear cointegrating models with time-varying coefficients and multiple nonstationary regressors using classic kernel smoothing methods to estimate the coefficient functions. Extending earlier work on nonstationary kernel regression to take account of practical features of the data, we allow the regressors to be cointegrated and to embody a mixture of stochastic and deterministic trends, complications which result in asymptotic degeneracy of the kernel-weighted signal matrix. To address these complications new \textsl{local} and \textsl{global rotation} techniques are introduced to transform the covariate space to accommodate multiple scenarios of induced degeneracy. Under certain regularity conditions we derive asymptotic results that …

Three Essays On The European Sovereign Debt Crisis With A Special Focus On Greece, Flora Leventi

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters where I examine several aspects of the European sovereign debt crisis. The first chapter focuses on systemic risk. Following the financial crisis of 2007-08, both in academic as well as policy circles, much of the research has focused toward the systemic importance of financial institutions. Parallel to that research, but to somewhat lesser extent, there have been improvements in our understanding of how risk is transmitted from the financial system to the real economy. This chapter investigates a related yet distinct manifestation of systemic risk, namely systemic sovereign risk. Using data on sovereign credit …